2020 Recruiting
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Marco said:
Yeah, I know, maybe coach knows a bit more than me but I agree with @BShark, Ty Berry should have already been offered - the guy can ball. In fact, I’ll take it a step further, why recruit five star point guards (just a hypothetical) at all? How about just signing solid point guards like McBride who can do everything and then fill out the rest of the roster with top 20 to 75 guys?
It’s very difficult to find guys willing to come in and sit for a bit. Which is what you would want them to do or you’d have growing pain years. For better or worse Self tries to field the best team possible every year.
Even for THE GREAT ONE at Villanova he had some early departures so they couldn’t do their typical development stuff, had to start young guys and suffered for it this last season.
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@BShark I am not saying that he should not try to field the best team possible. Get as many high-caliber players as possible, just field those in around a Frank, Devonte or Isaac.
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@Marco You have to find those guys though and it’s pretty rare. The staff stumbled into Frank and Devonte. Self also constantly tried to recruit over both. I don’t remember fully what the story with Issac (this is how his name is spelled, going to be fun on KU boards for years to come) is but I hope he ends up being a similar success story. He reminds me more of Devonte than Frank. He’s got “in the gym” range just needs to get a little quicker if possible.
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@Marco You said, “… fill out the rest of the roster with top 20 to 75 guys.” Your point is one that I have discussed here on multiple occasions. I think it is a good one. I firmly believe that the key is that the coach has to make a commitment to the players outside of OAD range (up to a certain level) that he will never recruit over them with a presumed OAD. Committing to avoiding the presumed OAD is the key. That is completely realistic. It’s as simple as doing it. Further, it would set a tenor for the program, it would free up a massive amount of time that was otherwise spent chasing the next Andrew Wiggins, and most of all, it would fit better with Bill Self as a coach. If a school like KU focuses on that range of recruits, I fail to see how we can’t land a nice crop each season.
@BShark I think sometimes we confuse the “fielding the best team” with pursuing presumed OADs. I firmly believe presumed OADs don’t make the best “team.”
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I feel like we just had this conversation and others like @Kcmatt7 @justanotherfan plus myself laid out why it’s not as simple as saying KU can land any top 25-75 player if they want.
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@BShark We did … and we’ve had it for years. But no one has ever said that KU “can land any top 25-75 player if they want” with this approach.
What has been said is that if KU focused it’s recruiting efforts in that general range, outside of presumed OAD, we’d have a better team that would better fit what Self desires, and we’d have more success in that range because we’re not wasting our time with the top end presumed OADs. Nothing is perfect, and the stray targeted OAD for an open spot on the roster sometimes happens, including grad transfers. But if we get out of the presumed OAD game, I think there is a strong argument that our program will be better overall. It is obvious that in some years, not having that plug and play OAD might not be totally beneficial (folks have argued X in 2010, Wiggins in 2013). Clearly, Josh Jackson being here was a plus on the court. But in all three of those seasons, we got out of the first weekend once. The other presumed OADs have been complete disasters (Selby, Cliff, Diallo) … the latter two I’d argue were because our coach was not enamored.
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@HighEliteMajor agree with everything you said but the roster without Wiggins was a mess, esp when Embiid went down. Maybe if we saw that as a rebuilding year and invested in a multi year guy. Im behind that. At the time I think we were all behind the visibility of the #1 and #3 pick in draft for recruiting purposes. I wonder now if that mattered so much?
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Well KU was the best team in the country the X year and he was one of the best 3 players on it. So I don’t think that one can even be argued.
KU doesn’t have enough data points for OADs. UK and Duke have had plenty of success with that model. The more you obtain, the more that turn out to be great players and the more that wash out. The baseline for talent is certainly higher, and Self is enamored with that so I doubt we see a change in approach. Six of the last seven signings were not presumed OADs but how much of that is Self just missing?
I won’t argue that Self does his best work with multi year players. You could give him a bag of rocks and he’d probably make the tournament. I’ve lined out before the experience on his FF teams. How much of that is luck? How much of it is Self’s approach to maximizing regular season results? I would argue, gun to their head most coaches would admit they coach to win every game. No coach has a magic elixir that lets them bypass some amount of regular season success for tournament success. Considering 2010 and 11 were some of Self’s best teams, the best team in the country those years and they failed to even make the FF. Then he gets there in 2012 with a 6 player team (admittedly still a top 5 one) and in 2018 with a team that couldn’t defend a lick. 2016 was another tight miss with a top team that happened to play the best team in the country in the EE. So 10 and 11 were more likely than 12 and 16 was more likely than 18. There is definitely a luck factor but as the 18 team showed it sure helps when you can shoot the crap out of the ball.
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@HighEliteMajor The other problem with “OAD” is if “Johnny Top Recruit” happens to suck, Bill can’t just bench him w/o massive criticism. Case in point…Q at times last year…
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Hard to recruit guys to sit for two years. Believe what you want, but I’m telling you it is THE #1 most important factor. My little sister played D2 soccer instead of D1 soccer because she knew she’d get to start from day 1. My older sister transferred out of D1 softball to Community College after one semester because she wanted to play every single game. I was told by the 4 year colleges that I visited that I might not see the field, but the local CC was telling me I’d at least DH. So I went to CC first. (Before “retiring” and ending up in Lawrence).
Then consider this. A player like Grimes was never supposed to be a OAD when we first started recruiting him years ago. But then he blew up and others hyped him up outside of KU. You guys act like we just start recruiting guys 6 months out. But this is 2-3 years out where you’re contacting most guys and seeing who is interested and then building that relationship. A guy could be 50th for the 2020 class right now and then explode this summer and end up 15th and have OAD expectations, but you’ve already built up the relationship for 2 years. Hard to all of a sudden tell them “you’ve actually gotten too good at basketball and we can’t take you anymore.”
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Almost no one wants to sit. Look at Enaruna and Wilson both saying they want to play right away. Both are top 50 guys. Wilson literally said he’s not going somewhere to sit, and that he wants to hoop. Even Frank and Devonte were getting solid tick as FR (Mason should have played even more over Tharpe). You have to go way down the rankings and even then it’s hard to find guys willing to take a year (or worse two) off.
@Kcmatt7 Great point about how early recruiting starts. When KU offered Sam Williamson (Self pissing off his mom is gonna hurt), Bryce Thompson and Daishen Nix they were all basically unranked. Sam’s other offers were schools like INCARNATE WORD. Of these three it looks like only Nix is blowing up to OAD status but all will end up top 50. Hell I remember being chided by a poster on another site for saying KU should offer and take Sam when he only had crap offers. The same poster later bemoaned the miss of a top 20 player.
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Even Bryce is tracking on being a top 30ish guy in the new rankings. Dude has had an incredible spring. You go after the best fit for your roster. Period. Some guys like Ben just go supernova after a year and then you’re scrambling anyway. We don’t make the tournament without Wiggs in 2014.
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@Kcmatt7 and @BShark make great points about recruiting being a long process. Because of that, you start watching these guys as middle schoolers, and start recruiting them as freshmen and sophomores in HS.
A kid that is the 30th or 40th best player in his class as a freshman in high school may flat out stop developing, at which point he may not even be a top 200 recruit as a junior. At that point its too late to get back into the running with guys that have gone from being unranked to high level, and that kid isn’t P5 material at that point.
Once kids start growing and getting more athletic in HS, they really can take off.
For example, Cleveland State thought they had a pretty solid combo guard out of Chicago. Then that kid grew eight inches in a summer and turned into Anthony Davis as we know him. When KU started recruiting Joel Embiid he was hardly ranked in the top 100. Then he just exploded. Basically went from being a project to being a lottery pick in less than 24 months. On the other side of things, Zach Peters was a nice recruit for KU. Injuries kept him from ever playing a P5 level game.
Ochai Agbaji is another good example. He was barely a D1 recruit entering his senior year. He developed so quickly that KU was lucky to land him. Often, that type of player lands at a mid major instead because its their best offer. But for every kid that develops rapidly, there are ten others that peak and never improve.
@Kcmatt7 makes a tremendous point about playing time. We act like only higher ranked players want to play, but that is just not the case. EVERYBODY wants to play. College sports, unlike HS sports, is a lot of work. Putting in that kind of time and effort to sit on the bench is not something most people want to do. Especially if they are good enough to play somewhere else, whether that’s dropping down from P5 to mid major, or from D1 to D2. I had a friend that went D2 because he knew that he would be playing as a freshman and likely starting as a sophomore. He was good enough to crack a D1 rotation, but it may have taken him two or three seasons to get serious minutes.
And regardless of saying you won’t recruit over a player, the reality is that every year, you’re recruiting over what you already have. Let’s do a quick exercise:
Say this year your roster has two PG, two combo guards, three true wings, a combo forward and four post players. You have a junior PG and a freshman PG. You have a senior combo guard and a sophomore combo guard. Two of your wings are juniors. One is a sophomore. Your combo forward is a freshman. Two senior post players, a freshman and a sophomore. So your squad is perfectly balanced with three seniors, three juniors, three sophomores and three freshmen. You need to replace your three seniors. What do you recruit?
Obviously you’re going to recruit at least one new post player because you have two senior post players. But you also have two young post players. If you recruit a new post player that comes in and is better than your two current players guess what, you have now recruited over your in house talent. And because you have two seniors, you will probably have to offer four or five post guys. You have to recruit guys that are good enough to play eventually, maybe even right now because you don’t have a ton of depth inside.
On the perimeter, you’re graduating a combo guard, so you have to go get another perimeter player, whether that’s a PG, combo guard or a true wing player. But again, let’s say you miss on your top combo guard targets, but there’s a really good PG out there that wants to come to your school. Now your current freshman PG is not happy because he’s stuck fighting this guy for a spot in the rotation and he’s already (presumably) sitting behind your junior PG.
Saying you won’t recruit over guys is impossible. Saying that you won’t recruit over a certain level is impossible. KU recruits the top players because KU is a top school that can recruit the top players. If KU avoids recruiting those players, they risk missing out on more than just OADs.
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HighEliteMajor said:
@Marco You said, “… fill out the rest of the roster with top 20 to 75 guys.” Your point is one that I have discussed here on multiple occasions. I think it is a good one. I firmly believe that the key is that the coach has to make a commitment to the players outside of OAD range (up to a certain level) that he will never recruit over them with a presumed OAD. Committing to avoiding the presumed OAD is the key. That is completely realistic. It’s as simple as doing it. Further, it would set a tenor for the program, it would free up a massive amount of time that was otherwise spent chasing the next Andrew Wiggins, and most of all, it would fit better with Bill Self as a coach. If a school like KU focuses on that range of recruits, I fail to see how we can’t land a nice crop each season.
@BShark I think sometimes we confuse the “fielding the best team” with pursuing presumed OADs. I firmly believe presumed OADs don’t make the best “team.”
I totally agree.
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I agree I think that KU needs to hurry up and offer Ty Berry, hes the best point guard in the Midwest.
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@BShark that’s a huge mistake. The kid is 6"4 or 6"5 with handles and a deadly jumper. Hopefully Ku will offer in July
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alwaysajayhawk said:
I agree I think that KU needs to hurry up and offer Ty Berry, hes the best point guard in the Midwest.
I like Adam Miller better. And KU has Nix, Miller, Jalen Green, and Bryce Thompson above Berry on their board. Unless Berry improves a lot over the summer he’s not getting an offer until spring.
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Have you seen Ty Berry play at all?
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alwaysajayhawk said:
Have you seen Ty Berry play at all?
Personally, no. But I’ve gotten a lot of feedback from people who have. And those are KU’s thoughts. So take it up with Self if you think Berry is better than the guys I listed.
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@alwaysajayhawk is he staying w/newton next year? Does he like the coach?
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@FarmerJayhawk oh okay. The kid can flat out play though. I’m not saying that he is better than the kids that you named, but I will hate to see the best player in Kansas ( 2020 ) go out the state or to WSU or K state, that’s all I’m saying
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Marco said:
HighEliteMajor said:
@Marco You said, “… fill out the rest of the roster with top 20 to 75 guys.” Your point is one that I have discussed here on multiple occasions. I think it is a good one. I firmly believe that the key is that the coach has to make a commitment to the players outside of OAD range (up to a certain level) that he will never recruit over them with a presumed OAD. Committing to avoiding the presumed OAD is the key. That is completely realistic. It’s as simple as doing it. Further, it would set a tenor for the program, it would free up a massive amount of time that was otherwise spent chasing the next Andrew Wiggins, and most of all, it would fit better with Bill Self as a coach. If a school like KU focuses on that range of recruits, I fail to see how we can’t land a nice crop each season.
@BShark I think sometimes we confuse the “fielding the best team” with pursuing presumed OADs. I firmly believe presumed OADs don’t make the best “team.”
I totally agree.
That is (prior recruiting whiffs aside) one of the things that I like most about this class, landing Braun, Enaruna and McBride. He locked those guys in, and now looks likely to also land Hampton and Wilson. Not too shabby - talent, depth, and (Hampton aside) four multi-year guys.
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justanotherfan said:
Saying you won’t recruit over guys is impossible. Saying that you won’t recruit over a certain level is impossible. KU recruits the top players because KU is a top school that can recruit the top players. If KU avoids recruiting those players, they risk missing out on more than just OADs.
I actually just saw this. The point made contrary to this is promising a kid that you won’t recruit over him with a presumed OAD. It’s not that you won’t recruit over him. It’s just that you won’t bring in the one year (alleged) wonder like Wiggins to send him to the bench — the presumed OAD.
As is, recruits see a so-so player like Grimes PROMISED a starting spot. And a reasonable wonder is, will that happen to them their junior or senior season? Well it won’t outside of about 8-10 programs that get these drama queens. So that makes a program like KU less attractive.
Again, non-presumed OADs? Sure. But not presumed OAD that requires promises, as they all generally do.
That is the approach that would be key and helpful to landing more kids in the range discussed. If they knew that they would be able to compete and not face a guy PROMISED a starting spot, that would make KU much more attractive.
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@HighEliteMajor It’s a double edged sword. Don’t offer a spot/minutes and you miss guys. Recruiting is a tough balance and there is a reason that it’s always a handful of coaches/programs at the top with sustained excellence.
@FarmerJayhawk I can see the point of the staff on it. I really like all the guards you listed and have mentioned them before. But also in that post I don’t see a ton of harm in offering and taking Berry early if he wants to be a Jayhawk. It really boils down to how many guards KU is going to need to take.
One last thing is that I think Self has been bitten more often than not with super early commitments in the past, these are ones I can remember…
Peters: development plateaued, some weird crap went down and eventually he quit basketball
Jacobs: development plateaued and also didn’t really grow at all, got recruited over (McBride) before even enrolling and ended up at Depaul
Woolridge: not sure what the deal was here, but he wasn’t good
Frankamp: not really B12 level
Brannen Greene: actually one of the most successful really early commits, which says a lot
So maybe Bill wants to mainly wait to take kids until they are SRs in HS.
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@Crimsonorblue22 I haven’t heard anything solid, but I’m hearing that he is thinking about going to prep school for his senior year
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alwaysajayhawk said:
@Crimsonorblue22 I haven’t heard anything solid, but I’m hearing that he is thinking about going to prep school for his senior year
I think this would be a really good idea. It’s so hard to tell how good kids are against KS HS competition. Even fringe guys just crush it usually. Frankamp broke records iirc and he didn’t even have a huge impact at WSU.
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alwaysajayhawk said:
@Crimsonorblue22 I haven’t heard anything solid, but I’m hearing that he is thinking about going to prep school for his senior year
I dig this move. I loooove KS HS sports (7 letters here!) but the level of competition is garbage.
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@FarmerJayhawk IMG or Sunrise
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BShark said:
@HighEliteMajor It’s a double edged sword. Don’t offer a spot/minutes and you miss guys. Recruiting is a tough balance and there is a reason that it’s always a handful of coaches/programs at the top with sustained excellence.
@FarmerJayhawk I can see the point of the staff on it. I really like all the guards you listed and have mentioned them before. But also in that post I don’t see a ton of harm in offering and taking Berry early if he wants to be a Jayhawk. It really boils down to how many guards KU is going to need to take.
One last thing is that I think Self has been bitten more often than not with super early commitments in the past, these are ones I can remember…
Peters: development plateaued, some weird crap went down and eventually he quit basketball
Jacobs: development plateaued and also didn’t really grow at all, got recruited over (McBride) before even enrolling and ended up at Depaul
Woolridge: not sure what the deal was here, but he wasn’t good
Frankamp: not really B12 level
Brannen Greene: actually one of the most successful really early commits, which says a lot
So maybe Bill wants to mainly wait to take kids until they are SRs in HS.
Berry is a keeper… An in-state PG as good as he is needs to - even if we offered would he sign? That is how good he is - be a Jayhawk. Don’t forget, though we would presumably (if he signs) not have Hampton we would still have McBride who like Berry I say is way underrated. That would be a great PG rotation, perhaps splitting time and getting equal minutes while pressuring the ball at both ends. I don’t necessarily think that we should bypass recruiting players like Hampton or Grimes or Wiggins, but do know that signing an Enaruna or a Berry along the way is worth its weight in gold. We haven’t really had any depth the past few seasons.
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I definitely agree with that assessment, but I don’t know if Berry is totally committed to KU either.
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@Marco I need to see more of Berry. I think McBride can be a contributor eventually because his jump shot is elite. I just don’t know yet if Berry appears to have any elite attributes. If anyone here has watched him play they would easily know more than the those of us that haven’t.
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@BShark I saw him in the Under armour tournament in Kansas city last month, a lot bigger than I imagined he would be ( about 6" 4 with muscle) nice handles and a very smooth stroke from the outside, I was highly impressed !
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Cunningham getting a lot of Okie St smoke. Wow.
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Look out below!
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FarmerJayhawk said:
Look out below!
Lol, you posted this about Walker/KU too and I’m not 100% sure what it means. :p
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BShark said:
FarmerJayhawk said:
Look out below!
Lol, you posted this about Walker/KU too and I’m not 100% sure what it means. :p
Bags are dropping!
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I hope he goes to Okie Lite if not Kansas. dook and UK were on him like flies on shit
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@FarmerJayhawk Ok that makes a lot of sense. It was more or less my assumption, but always good to clarify.
T mentioned K “w/e it takes to get him in Lawrence” T is running point on Walker, so uh…I think your math checks out there!
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FarmerJayhawk said:
I hope he goes to Okie Lite if not Kansas. dook and UK were on him like flies on shit
Honestly wouldn’t hate the Big 12 becoming completely badass. KU would still make the tournament and the tougher league could help development.
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BShark said:
@FarmerJayhawk Ok that makes a lot of sense. It was more or less my assumption, but always good to clarify.
T mentioned K “w/e it takes to get him in Lawrence” T is running point on Walker, so uh…I think your math checks out there!
Oh yes. Adidas would love to keep Walker in the family. I’ve heard Todd’s recruitment is not exactly above board, being in Raleigh and all. UNC isn’t really competing that hard for him. I have a hard time thinking he’ll go anywhere that can’t make it worth his while.
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Theory: Nike knows it is under the microscope so now it has to spread the love around a little more and not just Duke, UK, UNC, Oregon, and LSU…
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Made Cunningham’s top 10. I think we’re in the top tier.
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2021 daron Holmes has been offered by ku
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FarmerJayhawk said:
Made Cunningham’s top 10. I think we’re in the top tier.
What’s your thoughts on Oklahoma St? What’s driving that, connections or cash
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FarmerJayhawk said:
Made Cunningham’s top 10. I think we’re in the top tier.
The school are Duke uk Kansas unc Memphis Oklahoma state Washington Virginia Texas Florida
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BeddieKU23 said:
FarmerJayhawk said:
Made Cunningham’s top 10. I think we’re in the top tier.
What’s your thoughts on Oklahoma St? What’s driving that, connections or cash
Some of both. He’s a Texas kid so I can see the appeal of playing close to home.
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FarmerJayhawk said:
BeddieKU23 said:
FarmerJayhawk said:
Made Cunningham’s top 10. I think we’re in the top tier.
What’s your thoughts on Oklahoma St? What’s driving that, connections or cash
Some of both. He’s a Texas kid so I can see the appeal of playing close to home.
I’m just surprised that’s an actual school hes considering behind the scenes. I never gave it thought he wasnt going anywhere but a blue blood so this is surprising
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@BShark is he being sarcastic there? I honestly can’t tell what Slater is trying to say…
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Woodrow said:
@BShark is he being sarcastic there? I honestly can’t tell what Slater is trying to say…
I’m not fully sure. The other insinuation is because it went so poorly with Cheick.
