Team/Program at a Crossroads
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This team is at a real crossroads. This program is at a real crossroads. Unlike any year in the Self era imo.
The off-season might be as entertaining as the season was. So many unresolved decisions and potential NCAA roadblocks.
Starting from the Top:
Will the NCAA’s investigation result in sanctions against the program?
Loss of Victories, Forfeit Final 4 banner, Coaching Change(s), Post-Season Ban, Reduction in Scholarships. Nothing can be completely wiped off the table. We have no idea what will happen and when it will happen.
Will KU sign its deal with Adidas?
Some seem to think the deal has already been signed in principle and the announcement has been delayed to avoid some negative media reaction that could occur. This is where the ultimate problem lies with the Current College Basketball culture. The lucrative deal on the table for KU to stay with Adidas despite what’s happened from the FBI trial leaves the University in a pickle.
Will Bill Self return?
His most recent comments said yes, emphatically. One to monitor regardless.
Will Kurtis Townsend’s phone call from the FBI trial land him on the hot seat? One to monitor as well.
The optics look really bad.
Will Silvio De Sousa win his appeal for next year?
Jeff Long’s most recent comments said the appeal is still on-going. Can KU play and keep a player that is ultimately a big reason for the bigger issues surrounding the program (NCAA investigation). Can KU do the right thing- fighting for his eligibility while doing the wrong thing- accepting him back into the program upon favorable appeal ruling. It’s another pickle.
The optics won’t look good regardless.
Will all draft eligible players declare for the draft and leave KU?
Dedric Lawson is 100% leaving the program for a professional career. He put up historic numbers at KU and likely is graduating this spring.
Three others, Quentin Grimes, Udoka Azubuike & Silvio De Sousa could declare and leave as well.
Grimes has a chance to earn a combine invite. He could benefit from another year at KU to improve his game. He may also pursue a professional career after coming to KU as a highly decorated player that was projected Top 10 in the draft pre-season. Likely will declare and the test the waters at minimum. A combine invite and subsequent performance could sway his decision here. 50/50
Azubuike is still recovering from his season ending wrist injury. The timeline for his injury falls around the time the NBA draft will be happening. Udoka is one year away from graduation. There’s incentives to return but also reasons to pursue a professional career when he’s fully healed.
Silvio De Sousa is currently waiting for his appeal on his 2019-2020 eligibility. The answer will lie in the result. He could still leave even if he does gain his eligibility back. I think he’ll be back if he wins his appeal. Significant chance he’d start at the PF spot.
A chance at more transfers?
Charlie Moore has officially left the program for various reasons on/off the court.
KJ Lawson could potentially graduate this spring/summer and pursue another opportunity after a very sporadic 1st season. With his brother leaving that could also have an impact. 50/50 I think.
Where’s that leave KU next year?
KU could have as low as 5 scholarship players return, 7 counting the two signed 2019 recruits from November.
Charlie Moore’s transfer opens 1 scholarship. KU had 12 eligible scholarship players this year which leaves 1 additional spot open.
The 4 draft eligible/transfer candidate’s could open 4 additional spots. KU could have 6 spots to fill this off-season.
What’s left.
A trio of to be Sophomore’s who started Dotson (PG), Agbaji (SF) & McCormack ('C) will return.
Two additional role/starters in Lightfoot (PF/C) and Garrett (SG/SF) return as well.
Incoming guards Isaac McBride (PG/SG) & Christian Braun (SF) are both needs in the current game as they bring shooting, competitiveness and versatility to the program.
KU has extended 5 scholarship offers to High School Sr’s undecided at this moment.
Top 10 players Matthew Hurt (PF), Precious Achiuwa (PF).
Top 100 players Cassius Stanley (SG/SF), Tristan Enaruna (SF/PF) & Harlond Beverly (SG).
Hurt, Achiuwa, Stanley have all officially visited campus.Hurt will announce April 19th. Achiuwa could take additional visits and could wait until May to decide. Stanley visited in the fall but has been quiet on his recruitment for a while.
Enaruna & Beverly have not visited. Enaruna hasn’t taken an official visit yet. It’s expected KU could get one of those when he decides to take some visits. Beverly just announced a Top 6 with KU. He unofficially visited Indiana (on his top 6) at the beginning of March. Alabama, Georgia & KU offered him this week and made his list. Baylor offered in 2017, Miami offered in December.
Transfer Market:
Nothing official about targets yet. One named floated around is Matt Ryan from Vanderbilt but that hasn’t been confirmed.
What does everyone think?? Was this the end of great Era or will Bill Self figure this out and have a fresh start??
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As someone who played at KU and is still around the program on a daily basis basically told me " this is the most important off season since Roy left"
As you said there is a lot of uncertainty and frankly some uneasiness over the program and coaching staff as a whole. While I would be shocked if Self left right now leaving his program high and dry I am not ruling it out. I have heard some rumblings that he doesn’t think he is getting the full support or at leas the support he thinks he should be getting from the new AD / AD office.
I think Hurt is the most important recruit in the Self era. Not because he is a Wiggins talent, but because KU needs some momentum and something good to happen on the recruiting trail. Also I am not sure next years team can be competitive on the level we as fans expect if everyone leaves that we assume will leave and they do not sign someone like Hurt. I think Precious is a pipe dream at this point.
KU is going to sign with Adidas because at the end of the day this is a business and Adidas is offering by far the best deal. It is not even close. Nike wouldn’t even outfit all of the schools sports. That has been a sticking point and KU is not going to turn down this contract and take less money and then have to spend more money. Quite frankly it doesn’t make much sense to do so. Sure it looks bad right now, but as time goes by people will forget. The athletic department as a whole already operated in the red as it is. They also have zero negotiating power even if they wanted to switch to Nike. So sooner than later they are going to sign their deal with Adidas.
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Great post.
I firmly believe we will recover from this all rather quickly, and the FBI scandal will blow over as long as the NCAA doesn’t drag it out.
What sounds like a reinvigorated Bill Self may be one of the most dangerous men in CBB. I expect him and the entire staff back.
The roster turnover is great, imo. Only because I feel that our core is going to be very good next season. The 5 guys we know are returning are solid, both in character and work ethic. I expect big things from Dave, Dotson and Ochai. (Though, I do really believe Grimes returns and if he does, a big year)
I feel pretty confident we add at least two more freshman to the class. I expect two transfers. Probably one grad and one sit. And then it is likely we end up with an open scholarship.
As long as Bill Self is here, we will be one of the best teams in the nation. If he can take an 8 man rotation that included Teahan, Wesley and Young to the National Championship game, he can win games with just about anyone. The only worry I have at this point is not knowing what approach the NCAA plans on taking. After the Mizzou and De Sousa punishments, I expect something harsh. Likely, I think we get the works. A loss of scholarship for a year or two, FF stripped, Postseason ban for a year, and recruiting restrictions placed on us for a period of time (loss of visits). With a probation period of something probably close to 5 years. I expect it to be harsh.
However, I don’t think it will be anything but a bump in the road. This is not the way Bill will leave KU. He’ll be full of piss and vinegar. He will flip the bird to anyone who he thinks has wronged him during this past year. I do think this was the end of an Era. The streak was something special and really was it’s own era that has now ended. But I think this is just the start of a new era. The Bill Self Revenge Tour: Coming to a city near you. And I really think it’s going to be one hell of a show.
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This past year I’ve learned a lot about expectations. Low and High expectations. What I’ve learned is - I don’t know anything and I have control over almost nothing. From now on I will do my best to live my life hopeful, but not get dejected when my expectations are not met.
This includes KU Basketball.
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I’m with Kcmatt7
We would have heard more rumblings if Self were in trouble. He is indeed full of piss and vinegar.
Now is Hurt a OAD?
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Bosthawk said:
Now is Hurt a OAD?
He thinks he is, to the same extent that Grimes circle did from what I can gather. So only expect him for one year wherever he goes.
@BeddieKU23 I think KU has a real good shot at Enaruna and a decent shot at Beverly. He put out a “final 6” that had KU on it but Michigan wasn’t on it and Belein went to see him recently. Another school to watch is Alabama (on his list) as Nate Oats is a Michigan guy.
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@Woodrow The less than full support from the AD thing is interesting and worth monitoring. We can only hope that if that is the case, a dove is crushed in one’s hand.
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I agree with @Kcmatt7 that the roster turnover this offseason is a good thing. KU went into 2018-19 with a flawed roster. They lacked shooting on the perimeter. They lacked athleticism up front. Running it back with the same basic roster would guarantee that next year’s ceiling is Sweet 16. The turnover could be painful, but gives KU a chance to rectify some problems.
The grad transfer market should be intense. Kentucky got a huge boost this year by adding Reid Travis. If KU were to add a similar guy that could bring in immediate shooting or athleticism, that could be a huge boost for next season.
I would not be surprised to see KJ Lawson depart. He’s getting married this summer, and may have opportunities professionally overseas. Moore is gone. Dedric is gone. That’s his “group” that he came in with. He gave two years to the program, and isn’t far off from graduating. But again, I think this gives KU a chance to retool completely, as opposed to half measures.
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As to the current four teams in the final four, seems like 2016 were key recruiting years for these clubs according to recent espn article. Teams with experience on them in other words, mixed with transfers and freshmen. Not sure any of these teams were overload with OADs (like duke or Kentucky … btw so glad they are out, along with North Carolina). And of course, these guys are all playing well right now (timing) and playing with chemistry. I watched all the games this past weekend, and it was clear why they are in the final four- just flat out good basketball. Better level than KU had played at least since like January in my hazy recollection.
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Interesting that you have heard rumors of the AD and Self not being on the same page. That only adds to the importance of the off-season.
I think Hurt is the most important recruit in the Self era. Not because he is a Wiggins talent, but because KU needs some momentum and something good to happen on the recruiting trail.
Great point. He is an important recruit. Can be the face of the class. On the court he fits the modern game. Fits the biggest need on the team if Silvio is not eligible. KU needs multiple bigs. Hurt at least gives KU a starter level one.
Agree on Adidas although its sad in the same light.
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The returning core players are still a bunch that can’t shoot. Dotson and Agbaji struggled with confidence in their shot down the stretch. I know, it’s a lot to ask for freshman. Maybe they improve with the expected leap in their developments.
We all know Garrett’s struggles. That’s a guy that’s going to play 30 minutes a night. If he doesn’t fix it, the offense will be flawed no matter who’s around him.
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Texas Tech’s run to the Final 4 is one KU should be looking at closely. Beard took a core of Culver, Moretti Odiase & Francis and didn’t miss a beat. He plugged in Mooney and Owens from other schools as 1 year rentals and it all clicked. He got Corphew & Edwards to come in off the bench and play like starters. His highest rated recruit from the 2018 class didn’t even play a game. That’s a team that clicked and there’s no rhyme or reason for predicting it.
The other 3, Michigan St, Auburn & Virginia have are enjoying the fruit of years of chemistry and development from the past 3 years. All 3 have exited the tourney in recent years in the first weekend. How many more years will it take all 3 to redevelop another set of core players.
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Adidas is spending its money wrong. They need to buy tournament selection members, so KU can have an easy path like others seems to get.
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Part of re-tooling this group is understanding that Garrett and Lightfoot are not starters on next year’s team. Penciling either of those guys in as a starter automatically caps the potential of that team.
Both are good role players that should figure into the rotation. But if either is playing more than 20 mpg, we already know they aren’t making it past the Sweet Sixteen.
You are 100% right about the offense being flawed with Garrett. If Braun and Agbaji fill out the perimeter with Dotson, and Garrett comes off the bench, that’s a good start. Or if KU finds another freshman here late (or a grad transfer) to fill that other wing spot, that helps a lot. The team should build around Lightfoot and Garrett as the sixth and seventh (or seventh and eighth) guys, not the fourth and fifth or fifth and sixth.
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justanotherfan said:
Part of re-tooling this group is understanding that Garrett and Lightfoot are not starters on next year’s team. Penciling either of those guys in as a starter automatically caps the potential of that team.
Both are good role players that should figure into the rotation. But if either is playing more than 20 mpg, we already know they aren’t making it past the Sweet Sixteen.
You are 100% right about the offense being flawed with Garrett. If Braun and Agbaji fill out the perimeter with Dotson, and Garrett comes off the bench, that’s a good start. Or if KU finds another freshman here late (or a grad transfer) to fill that other wing spot, that helps a lot. The team should build around Lightfoot and Garrett as the sixth and seventh (or seventh and eighth) guys, not the fourth and fifth or fifth and sixth.
A decent and realistic starting line-up IMO
Dotson
A recruit maybe McBride or Beverly
Agbaji
Utomi
McCormack
Garrett and Mitch could be solid bench pieces. I would love for Beverly to be added and I think there is a real chance it happens.
But we know the reality is Garrett will start at the 2 in this scenario.
Don’t expect anything from Braun next season imo.
In a perfect world, KU lands Matt Hurt.
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BShark said:
Anything worth mentioning in that article? I saw the quote where he says he is not thinking about any other job, but just curious if there was anything in there that really stood out to you?
- I know the Athletic is really good. I need to sign up for it.
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Some encouraging stuff about Hurt and Self mentions targeting athleticism and shooting in recruiting more.
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@BShark Is Beverly a shooter?
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Hawk8086 said:
@BShark Is Beverly a shooter?
That was his role at montverde. Good athlete as well, better then Grimes in that regard.
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BeddieKU23 said:
Hawk8086 said:
@BShark Is Beverly a shooter?
That was his role at montverde. Good athlete as well, better then Grimes in that regard.
Overall I think he would be a great addition.
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justanotherfan said:
Part of re-tooling this group is understanding that Garrett and Lightfoot are not starters on next year’s team. Penciling either of those guys in as a starter automatically caps the potential of that team.
Both are good role players that should figure into the rotation. But if either is playing more than 20 mpg, we already know they aren’t making it past the Sweet Sixteen.
You are 100% right about the offense being flawed with Garrett. If Braun and Agbaji fill out the perimeter with Dotson, and Garrett comes off the bench, that’s a good start. Or if KU finds another freshman here late (or a grad transfer) to fill that other wing spot, that helps a lot. The team should build around Lightfoot and Garrett as the sixth and seventh (or seventh and eighth) guys, not the fourth and fifth or fifth and sixth.
I don’t believe Self plans on starting Lightfoot. He’ll likely have the same role he’s had every year. But who knows if Self doesn’t land a high level recruit or graduate transfer and doesn’t have Silvio eligible he won’t have much choice…
Garrett on the other hand is Self’s guy. @HighEliteMajor mentioned like a “teacher’s pet”. Every team defended KU with him on the court basically the same. It was a fatal flaw for the offense. How do you hide a perimeter player that has no confidence or consistency in his shot? Probably hard to do. I know this board talked about Azubuike being a dying breed in the sport, a true down low back to basket post player.
Players like Garrett are imo a bigger hindrance to team success in today’s game on offense. Perimeter players have higher usage and see the ball more often. For his career Marcus is a 43% shooter, 25% from 3 and 55% from the FT line. Atrocious numbers. Can’t happen again. Self’s teams may be flawed until Marcus leaves campus. We know he’s going to play. He played 26 minutes a game sick and less then 100% on the ankle. 100% healthy he’s a 30+ minute guy.
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@BShark I read the article last night. It was fairly encouraging on the Hurt front although if we are being realistic it is just tough to beat Duke right now on the recruiting trail. Hopefully Self can make it happen.
I forgot Stanley was announcing in 2 weeks and then Hurt on the 19th so we will know quite a bit in the coming weeks. Stanley’s recruitment is so weird. There is no way you would think he picks UCLA without a coach and I just saw Jamie Dixon is the leading candidate. I can’t inagine that’s going to blow him away. I know it’s hard to get West Coast kids off the West Coast but maybe Bill can close the door. He is the athletic type of player Self was talking about in that article.
It was refreshing for him to admit he needs more shooters and more athleticism on the roster. IMO he should recruit some athletic lower ranked kids and then look for shooters on the grad transfer market. Those guys have 4 year sample sizes and are known commodities. If they can shoot for 4 years at another school they will able to shoot at KU.
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Oregon’s tourney success likely left a good impression on Stanley. He’s been very quiet for a while. I know KU did a great job on his official. All you can hope for at that point. They have recruited him a long time.
I like how Cassius has progressed and become more then the high flyer he’s been known to be. He plays within a team structure and he’ll come into college old for his class which doesn’t hurt from a maturity/college ready perspective. He improved his shooting “dramatically” as the Los Angeles Daily News reported on him last week.
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@Woodrow just like you said about Stanley’s recruitment being weird on why he would choose UCLA even though they don’t have a coach.
Here’s a scenario I would see happening with how the players are transferring more and more. What if UCLA doesn’t have a coach and he commits to KU and takes a scholarship. Then, UCLA gets a decent enough coach and Stanley wants to transfer but after we scare off other guards who won’t get playing time with him here.
Regardless we need him. He’ll be at minimum a 3 year player
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Well latest news today is Jamie Dixon is in talks to become the next coach. I wouldn’t be surprised if his first phone call as coach was to the Stanley’s.
I’m sure despite no relationship he’d probably stay home
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BeddieKU23 said:
Well latest news today is Jamie Dixon is in talks to become the next coach. I wouldn’t be surprised if his first phone call as coach was to the Stanley’s.
I’m sure despite no relationship he’d probably stay home
kind of Crazy. I may of been the only one but - - I was glad to see Jamie come to the Big 12 - -alma Mater and all - -I just thought he would be there for quite awhile - - kind of threw me for a loop. - Guess I’m still under the influence or train of thought wise like Bill.
The influence I’m talking about is the train of thought of - being somewhere for quite awhile. That’s what I thought Jamie would do at TCU being his Alma Mater an such. I guess I’m still thinking how Bill turned down his Alma Mater and Boone Pickens to stay here - -because he loves this place. - -I guess just think for Jamie and TCU being his alma Mater and what I thought him loving being there - that he would stay - -seems like a really fast move. - - I think UCLA needs more then Jamie - -that School has really fallen off
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THERE IS A HOLDUP WITH JAMIEDIXON AND UCLA SO THEY WILL STILL TALK TO EVER PEOPLE
