Next years stat lines using stat lines from old ESPN top 100 rankings.
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This is my best shot using the Statmachine way of thinking to come up with next years starting 5 and stat lines. Lets start off using the 5 star freshmen, the supposed OAD’s, the ones who HCBS knows he has to let play to keep the OAD train stopping in Lawrence KS. Using their ESPN top 100 ranking to asses how they should do comparing them to others close too or just like them in previous ESPN top 100 rankings. Lets start with Cliff Alexander the #1 PF on ESPN final 2014 class rankings. Dusting off the history books shows us how the past #1 PF’s have fared to determine how Big Cliff’s season SHOULD look by taking an average from the 3. I know some of you are scratching your heads but history can be a useful tool to help shed a little light on the unknown. Comparison Julius Randle 30.8mpg, 15ppg, 10.4rpg . Anthony Bennett 27.1mpg, 16.1ppg, 8.1rpg. Anthony Davis 32.0mpg, 14.2ppg, 10.4rpg.
Cliff Alexander 29.9mpg 15.1ppg 9.6rpg.
Kelly Oubre #4SF on ESPN final 2014 class rankings. Again using ESPN history to see how the past #4 SF’s fared and taking an average. Comparison Wayne Selden 29.2mpg, 9.7ppg, 2.6rpg. Sam Dekker 22.3mpg, 9.6ppg, 3.4rpg. Dorian Finney-Smith 22mpg, 6.4ppg, 5.0rpg.
Kelly Oubre 24.5mpg, 8.5ppg, 3.6rpg.
Sophomore Connor Franckamp the #10 PG on the final 2013 ESPN class rankings. I found it a lot harder to find kids the same exact ranking. It appears that the guys ranked inside the top 50 that aren’t starting their sophomore year transfer and normally it just doesn’t work out very well. These guys were all ranked somewhere between 25-50 and were starting their sophomore year. I also think Mason could pull off these kind of numbers. I guess it just depends who worked harder this summer and who HCBS likes better. Comparison Peyton Siva 31.2mpg, 10ppg, 5.7apg. Phil Pressey 32.1mpg, 10.3ppg, 6.4apg. Quinn Cook 33.6mpg, 11.7ppg, 5.3apg.
Conner Frankamp 32.3mpg, 10.6ppg, 5.8apg.
Because I had a much harder time finding #4 SF sophomores ranked in the top 15 that stuck around 2 years. I had to use the SF ranked nearest to Wayne Seldens to came up with this for Sophomore Selden. Comparison Sam Dekker 29.8mpg, 12.4ppg, 6.3rpg. Deshaun Thomas 31.4mpg, 15.9ppg, 5.4rpg. LeBryan Nash 31.9mpg, 14.0ppg, 4.1rpg.
Wayne Selden 31.0mpg, 14.1ppg, 5.2rpg.
Junior Perry Ellis the #35 PF just like Selden, is harder to compare because things are not apples to apples at this point but I am still going to try. I’m sure Juniors from the top 50 that stick around for 3 years are a hand full for almost anyone to handle. Perry Ellis is no Robinson but their rankings and position are close to the same and they both stayed until their Junior year. Comparison Johnny O’Bryant III 30.0mpg, 15.4ppg, 7.7rpg. Dwight Powell 30.4mpg, 14.9ppg, 8.4rpg. Thomas Robinson 31.8mpg,17.7ppg, 11.9rpg.
Perry Ellis 30.7mpg, 16ppg, 9.3rpg.
These numbers and data should give us some Idea what our starting 5 should produce next year. The contested PG spot is the only question mark but the better of the 3 will play and could produce a stat line like the one I listed. I know that anyone can poke holes in my theory/research but I think the data suggest that 4 of our starters could average double digit points and we probably have the best/deepest bench in the country outside of UK. I like our odds!
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I did this on a different program and now the font is all messed up and I am at work and do not have time to fix it so please excuse the mess. It looks nothing like what you see when I go to edit it either lol. I will try to fix it later. Sorry
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I like the way you did that… bringing in comparisons of other players. I think that is probably about as accurate way to predict stats than any other. We need to bring back your post after March and see how accurate you were.
It is tough making predictions and hoping they stick. I try not to get too caught up in zeroing in on numbers because then I will develop some stiff expectations that may not be fair. Take Wayne Selden. I think many of us expected more from Wayne last year, and he would have produced more had he not been injured (and was hiding it from us).
There are so many factors involved with this. Like… how about the competition? Who will these players face this year? Let’s say this year Oubre will face a couple of super tough defensive hombres in the conference. Those two defenders may get as many as 6 total games facing Oubre (could even be more in March!). That will impact almost 20% of Oubre’s stats for the year!
Last year we experienced how Ellis tends to put up much bigger numbers against smaller post players. He seemed to struggle against certain teams.
I don’t think any of your numbers are out of line.
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I like what you did here. On your comment about finding it hard to compare players outside the top 10, a lot of that is because the rankings become more and more subjective the further down you go because there is much less separation.
For example, next year’s ESPN 100 lists just 6 players with a ranking score above 95 - one 97, two 95’s and three 96’s. As you go down though, more and more players get the same ranking score. There are, for example, 7 players with a score of 89. Is Jalen Adams (ranked 25th) actually the 19th best player in the class? That makes a difference because if he jumps from 25th to 19th, he goes from being the #4 PG to the #2 PG because three PG’s all have a ranking of 89.
Further down, it gets even murkier. Every player from 32 to 48 is ranked 87. Five consecutive PF are scored 86 from 50-54. And if you account for the fact that maybe a player could be mis-scored by a +/- of 1, you can see the chaos it could cause. Is player 54 (PF Horace Spencer) really an 87 instead of an 86, and if so, should he jump to where Esa Ahmad is at 42? That would jump him over 5 other PF, which would be really significant.
I think it would be interesting to follow these stats through the year and see if they mirror the ones you mention above. It’s a really cool baseline to work off of, and has me dreaming in the offseason again.
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@justanotherfan I was going to do the entire team but found it more time consuming than I wanted to bother with. I might have some time this weekend to add in some of the things you mentioned and refine my methods. Glad you added your 2 cents!
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@Statmachine good stuff here!
First thought, in the comparison between Alexander and Randle, Randle played with a shot blocker. I fear fouls being a limiting factor on Big Cliffs minutes and thus overall numbers.
Second thought, if you even out the numbers just a little bit, it reminds me of the 08 squad!!!
Lastly, the PG situation, hard to say who but the numbers should be there for anyone of them. More to come on the PG situation.
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Just finally was able to read your post and it’s a brilliant way to assess the team. (sorry about the formatting… let me know if you want me to take a crack at cleaning it up.)
If these guys perform the way the stats suggest, the starters will be scoring around 64-65 pts per game. We’ll need some contributions from the bench and we’ll need our defense to hold opponents to 70 or fewer most nights.
Excellent post!
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Would Perry Ellis be comparable to Chase Budinger? Budinger played SF for 3 years at Arizona and like Ellis, he was also somewhat of a tweener.
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@JayHawkFanToo I don’t think Budinger is a good comp for Perry because Perry is more of an inside player, while Budinger was more of a perimeter player. During his time in Tucson, Budinger never made fewer than 50 threes in a season. Perry has never made more than 8 threes in either of his seasons.
Chase handled the ball more as well, never dishing out fewer than 62 assists, while Perry has never had more than 36. Perry shot over 54% last year, and nearly 48% as a freshman, due in part to being a post player. Chase never was better than 48%, due to the amount of jumpshots (particularly 3s) he took. Chase was a more athletic (but less filled out) player than Perry is. They list Chase at 6-7, 218 now in the NBA. He was probably 10 pounds lighter in college. Perry is probably an inch taller and 10 pounds heavier than Chase is today.
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I will TRY to put something together this weekend. From what I have gathered our bench should be good for 30 ppg. I will post something later this weekend. thanks for all the feed back.
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Because of team needs they both played different positions but their skill set is not that different. Budinger i a good leaper (thanks volleyball) and can rebound, but because he could hit the outside shot he played the 3. Ellis natural position is the 3 and he can hit the three pointer (we have seen that), however, the need at KU was PF so he played that position. I see him spending more time at the 3 this upcoming season, which will make him closer to Budinger. Maybe?
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Fresh approach and worth tracking expectation vs. outcome to assess predictive effectiveness. But…
This approach might not have worked very well Travis and EJ’s second seasons on the team.
This is my way of saying that Self seems to vary more in how fast he brings guys along than other coaches.
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@jaybate-1.0 I see what you are saying but I was using this theory assuming these guys start or play the majority if the minutes for their respective positions. If any one of these guys do not start the numbers used here are not going to work. I have been thinking of averaging in the returning players points per minute from last years numbers into my formula and finding players that are the same standing height amongst other factors. When I finish I believe it should paint a pretty realistic picture of what to expect.
