Hosmer to Padres?
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@JayHawkFanToo Who would trade for Gordon and his contract??
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@mayjay What makes you think he would be a poor defensive 1B? I just don’t understand where you are coming from with that. If it is his height, and height alone, I find that to be a weak argument. 1st base is the easiest infield position to play, no question about it. So if he can defend 3rd at a professional level, I would think he could defend 1st with no issues.
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I know that; it was just wishful thinking. I did not think KC should have given Gordon that type of contract at all; I would have preferred they tried to keep Zobrist instead.
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@JayHawkFanToo What’s interesting, look at Zobrist’s stats … Merrifield I think was better. I definitely wanted to sign Zobrist instead. Moore got sentimental.
@Kcmatt7 Definitely agree with you. Good third basemen translate great to first. History of the game tells us that.
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@Kcmatt7 Besides the height, which puts him at a disadvantage even if you disagree, my skepticism comes from something you keep ignoring: he has never played it in even one game (Baseball Reference) so there is no evidence on which to assume he would be average or better. Brett had played in over 20 games at 1st while rehabbing from the age of 26 to 30, and even when he did move to 1st regularly at 34 he often played DH instead. But there was at least a history on which to judge. Oh, and he was ambidextrous (he even threw batting practice left handed sometimes), which might not be relevant but it is very cool).
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@mayjay So many players have moved from positions to play first base, especially as they aged. Pujos, Cabrera, Carpenter, Sweeney, Piazza, Garciaparra, Hanley Ramirez, Konerko and Mauer are guys that I can think of just off the top of my head.
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@Kcmatt7 I decided to test our theories with your examples. A couple of six footers (including Brett), but most were taller. Some had prior experience or moved earlier (a couple later). Mauer is probably most similar to Moose’s stage of career, but he is 6’5". Some were 1B entire career, or nearly.
Pujols, 6’3" 42 games age 21, 21 games age 22, 62 games age 23, 150 age 24 (moved full time)
Cabrera, 6’4" Moved to 1st base age 25, never played it before
Carpenter, 6’3" Started at first at age 26 in his second MLB season (played 3 games at 1B in minors), was moved next season to third, played 3B & 2B mostly for next 2 years, several at 1B, then has moved in the past 2 years to 1st and a bunch at 2B. Total of 214 games at 1B out of >870 in MLB (201 at 2B, 452 at 3B)
Sweeney, 6’1" Age 21-25 catcher, moved to first and DH exclusively for next 11 years, almost exactly league average fielding %age for career (Sweeney .990, league avg in his years, .993)
Piazza, 6’3" 1 game at 1B age 24, 1 game age 34, 68 games age 35 (70 games total) Split remaining 3 years of career between C and DH
Garciaparra, 6’ Almost exclusively a SS until 31, then moved to 3B, to 1B at 32, played 210 games at 1B over 4 seasons until retired. Had high career fielding %age at 1B (.998)
Hanley Ramirez, 6’2" 151 games at 1B in last 2 seasons (133 at age 31, 18 at age 32), never before. High fielding %age (.997). Played SS mostly in career.
Konerko, 6’2" 18 year career, started at age 21 splitting at 3B and 1B, last 14 years mostly at 1B. Total of 1904 games at 1B, 345 at DH, 29 at 3B, 1 in outfield,
Mauer, 6’5" started move to 1B at age 28
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@mayjay What you don’t know is if Moose played 1st while in high school and in the extensive time spent in club baseball. In fact, it’s highly likely that he did play other positions. 1st is logical for a guy like Moose. I don’t know though. Some guys get extra time in the OF, like Hosmer did (if you recall that discussion about Hosmer being able to play OF when Butler was still here). In club ball, you will have two guys that can play one spot, so even the best guys might only play their positions 3 out of 4 games. You could play 5-6 games over a 3 day period.
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@HighEliteMajor All the articles about him in high school have him playing SS mostly, but also some at 3B, 2B, and C. He was only 5’11 until his senior year. He played OF in the 2006 Junior World Championships and robbed Cuba of a HR in a great leap at the wall. He was drafted as a SS.
That history is obviously one that shows, along with his 3B play with the Royals, that he is a fine athlete who has played a few positions. I have no doubt he could adapt to 1B. But my point is his history does not support any prediction of how well he would do.
There are a lot of players lower than average who have played it since their careers started, and for anyone to assume he could surpass them is a big logical leap. For the Royals to assume he could fluidly transition, and rest their biggest roster decision of this offseason on that assumption, would be a huge gamble.
One other thing: If he could do it, why was Moose never tried at 1B in a game throughout his MLB career? The lack of evidence of something might not amount to any firm evidence, but it might at least be a hint.
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@mayjay The fact that he played SS gives us an indication that he was a superior fielder. But not a MLB level SS. But of course, the best players on club teams/HS play SS anyway.
My evidence is circumstantial only, based on his level of fielding and others that have moved there. I would not be concerned that the Royals never played him at 1st. That’s relative to the team and the best lineup on a particular day. Meaning, the best lineup would always have Moose at the 3rd.
We can agree that you have no evidence, other than your circumstantial evidence, to suggest it would be a bad move. I grant you that it might turn out that way. I assume you can grant me the possibility that it could work out.
But, alas, my only reason for suggesting it is if we were to have to lose Hosmer. Bringing Moose in would be better than Moss. But I do think they could play Hunter Dozier there. I think they’d played him some there in the minors. He was hurt last season.
I love Moose’s game, and wish we could keep him.
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Can we just say that 3rd base is the optimal position for Moose and, based on his athleticism and natural ability, he could play other positions effectively including 1st base?
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@HighEliteMajor I just realized I never answered your earlier question about my comment about contracts. I only meant it might not be correct that we could sign Moose at the amount you suggested. I think it will require more, so the savings compared to Hosmer would not be as dramatically lower as in your hypothetical. But it seems teams are waiting longer to sign FAs, so my comment may have been premature. The signings occurring in MLB this week to avoid arbitration have been interesting.
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@JayHawkFanToo I can agree to that.
@mayjay I saw some projections on Moose getting near $100. I kind of look at it from a % standpoint – stats vs. money. Market is not optimal for these guys.
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Crap…Any word what the Royals are doing to find a fair replacement?
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@truehawk93 No signing of Hos or Moose yet.
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There is now…Hos is gone.
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Hosmer is/was my favorite Royal’s player.
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@JayHawkFanToo My interest in the Royals just fell to an alarmingly low level after my ardent support from 1975-1994, 2013-2017. I doubt I will go to one game this year. A truly sad day.
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Padres overpaid. I’m glad the Royals didn’t invest $21 mil per year in a slightly above average first baseman. KC loved Hos, but he apparently didn’t return said love as contract talks never seemed to come close.
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@Fightsongwriter I’ll be back to kind of checking on the box scores and stuff.
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It’s to painful for me now!
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Sometimes you pay not just for the field performance but for the off-the field intangibles. Hosmer was well liked by the fans and had a great image that is hard to quantify but makes people like me, who are not really big baseball fans, follow the Royals. Really sorry to see him leave.
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@JayHawkFanToo Scott Boras. When you sign for him you are about the money, not team loyalty. Saw this coming years ago. I just hoped I would be proven incorrect.
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@dylans Teams gave up the notion of team loyalty long ago when they created the reserve clause that made tying a player to a team not optional for the player, and later instituted the draft. The players just have caught up.
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@mayjay Nothing wrong with it. There aren’t too many Brett’s. That’s what makes them special. Hoz just won’t be that to KC fans, but he did what’s best for him at least short term. I wish him well, thank him for the memories and look forward to seeing how the Royals move on.
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I’ll hang my Hosmer jersey next to my Jeff Francoeur jersey and move on, again.
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I always marvel when I see how much a sports athlete can command to play a game. Old Hosmer is going to get $20 million a year for the first 5 years, with an option to opt out after five years. That is just crazy money. I think this is why I’ve become more of a causal baseball fan. Don’t get me wrong I don’t begrudge a player for taking the money. Hell I know I would… It just seems to me the current business model that MLB uses is really keeping America’s past time from reaching it’s full potential. The money markets and teams really do have a decided advantage. Kansas City is a baseball town. No reason why they shouldn’t be able to field a competitive team year to year. Royals fans shouldin’g have to endure growing up young stars to the MLB only to watch them be snatched up from the Yankees of the world.
Oh how I miss the days of my youth when mister K was at the helm of our beloved Royals, and the KC star used to have an evening edition of the Newspaper (sports section)(lol). Oh good times
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@Buster-1926 Maybe Robin Yount would’ve been the better example. But he’s not a Royal. Career long stars are hard to come by in a small market.
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If this is handled right, I’ll be glad we didn’t spend the money. Let the rebuild begin, and a commitment to building a strong organization top to bottom. Replenish the farm system, don’t trade away promising prospects for short erm success and start building a dynasty. We should model ourselves after the Cardinals. This is a great new challenge for Dayton, and it starts with 5 picks in the first two rounds.
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http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=8051
The best-case scenario for the Padres now is that Hosmer hits like he did in 2017 again this year, and either establishes trade value for himself even with the new deal, or at least opts out after 2022 and goes somewhere else for his decline phase. The more likely scenario, unfortunately, is that he repeats his track record, alternating solid years with awful ones, and eventually ends up in the way of a better player, perhaps one of the Padres’ many top outfield prospects who has to shift to first because they have a surplus out on the grass. Even at what appears to be a slight discount in the annual salary, reflective of the industry’s suddenly parsimonious attitude toward free agents, this is just the wrong move for San Diego on too many levels, and a huge, baffling misstep for a front office that has done so many things right in the past 18 months.
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@Kcmatt7 Better get some real pitchers.
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@Fightsongwriter or someone who can actually develop starting pitchers…
Royals main problem is development imo. We develop batters with terrible approaches and pitchers that can’t do anything but throw 98 mph fastballs. At some point we need to ask ourselves what the problem is. Is it drafting or development? Could be a mixture of both.
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@DoubleDD “Royals fans shouldin’g have to endure growing up young stars to the MLB only to watch them be snatched up from the Yankees of the world.”
You must be talking about the days of my youth–before yours–when KC fans had to suffer from the Athletics being a virtual farm team for the Yankees.
So, you think something is new about big money/big city teams having an advantage? You might want to watch the musical Damn Yankees to remind you that there wasn’t any parity back then, either!
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@Buster-1926 So we have 1 first round pick. We then have 2 compensatory picks immediately following the first round. Then a 2nd round pick. It looks as if Moose will not break $50M. So instead of a 1st round compensatory pick , the Royals will receive another pick after the 2nd round. Probably like pick 80.
Still, that brings us to 6 picks out of the first 100ish players. This year’s draft is the most important of Dayton’s life. He needs to hit on at least 3 of these picks. Hopefully he can get 4 of the 6 to pan out in some form or fashion. I would like to see us get 2 position players, a starting pitcher and a solid relief pitcher out of this draft.
The reason this is so important of a draft is because the Royals have hardly any remaining International Signing Bonus money. Only $300k left. So the only thing we can do is continue to sign very young players and develop them ourselves. We couldn’t afford the next big Cuban star or Japanese player that wants to come over because we couldn’t pay them well enough. No way to get an instant starter for cheap basically.
Still, this is a good way to jump start the rebuild. Duffy, Whit, Herrera and Salvy should all probably get shipped off while they have value.
The only player that I would be ok with them holding on to is Duffy, because it is hard to find talented starting LHP. Also the reason he would be so valuable on the trade market…
If we unloaded everyone, and drafted well over the next 3 years, we could be producing a winning product in about 5 or 6 seasons.
- Salvy - Could fetch 3 or 4 solid prospects. His contract is great and he plays a ton of games. Right in his prime. Gold Glover. Should get a great return if we let him go.
- Whit - Could fetch a good starting pitching prospect at the deadline.
- Duffy - Would only trade for a deal similar to what we got for Greinke. Would need 3 guys all but MLB ready players, one of them being a very promising pitching prospect.
- Herrera - Would give up for 1 solid position player.
That would be a potential 8-10 prospects if we went full tank mode. Probably 3-4 of them would be pitchers and we can build from there. I just don’t see any reason to keep these guys who are all 27-28 years old just so we can lose for the next 5 seasons and by the time we have talent at the MLB level again, these guys are in decline on huge contracts. Sell them cheap, get a great return on them, and build a beast of a farm system. I hope the Royals go full tank mode and get the #1 pick 3 years in a row. That is where I am at as a fan now.
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@Kcmatt7
you are killing me!
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@Buster-1926 I hope Ned moves on after this season. Just would hate to see him ruin his Royals legacy by hanging on to the game for too long. Should ask Dayton to be moved into a different role in the front office or something if he wants to still be around the game.
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@Kcmatt7 Are there any beer vendors you think the Royals should keep? jk!
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@mayjay next he’s going to take out Hud and Joel
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Lol sorry guys… I should be more sensitive to the nostalgic. I could have waited until the season started at least haha.
I just don’t want to watch another 30 years of bad baseball while Frank White rambled on just trying to fill air time because the game was 10-2 and we were putting in our 4th reliever already in the 5th inning.
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Well, the Royals went for big and right handed.
http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/02/28/royals-sign-lucas-duda/
He is the guy who tried to throw Hosmer out at the plate in the 9th inning of the 5th game, and now he replaces him. Funny connections in this game!
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@mayjay I think we will see him DH a majority of the time. Just don’t understand the signing tbh. If we are going to tank, save the money lol.
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I don’t get what the Royals are doing. They should be rebuilding, but they keep signing veterans that are going to end up blocking younger players. The only thing worse than a bad plan is no plan at all. I fear that’s where the Royals are right now.
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@justanotherfan signing guys with upside to cheap contracts aren’t bad deals. If Duda hits another 18 HRs before the break, he could be flipped for a prospect or two. If some young guy is having a great season at AAA, you can always waive him because he is so cheap or trade him for cash or international player money.
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Now, the real question is…will the organ play The Camptown Races when he comes to bat?
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@justanotherfan I realize I sounded contradictory in my statements after rereading them. I personally wouldn’t have signed Duda. But I do in fact see what the Royals could be doing by signing cheap vets with tradeable upside.
There could be more at play too. I’m sure they don’t want to be mentioned in the MLBPA lawsuit against teams that were inactive in free agency.
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I think it’s smart to be somewhat active, but the Royals aren’t like the Rays in that the Royals have some big contracts on the books right now (Gordon, Kennedy), plus some other homegrown guys with nice extensions (Duffy, Perez). They have a couple of middling prospects at 1B and in the OF, so it doesn’t make sense to sign veterans there IMHO.
I don’t think it made sense to bring back Escobar when one of the top young players in the organization plays the same position. Duda makes a little more sense because the guys that play 1B aren’t as big of prospects, but I didn’t like it because you still need to get guys like Soler, Bonifacio, Dozier, Cuthbert at bats regularly, which means probably using one of them as the DH quite a bit. Duda seems like he may block some of that on days he’s not at first.
Plus, the Royals theme has been defense and athleticism. That’s how they built their championship team. Duda doesn’t check either of those boxes. Escobar does, but he’s been a pretty bad offensive player the last two seasons, and guys tend to fall off defensively as they age. Now, I will grant that maybe the Royals are rebuilding in a different model, but if that is the case, I would have gone younger rather than with older players.
But you are right, maybe there is some tradeable upside for guys like that to get picks to re-stock the system. If that’s the plan for 2018, that makes sense, especially since it is on a one year deal.
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@justanotherfan From what I am seeing, the plan is to TRY to get through this season and next season (2019 season) as a 75 win team. That is when the new TV deal will be finalized. And the Royals have had the best TV ratings in baseball over the past 4 years. Not only that, but the Rays just signed a deal for $82M/season. The Royals should get even more than that with how bad the Rays do on TV. I’m thinking they may seriously get $100M/season. Which would give them about $20M more a year than the Cardinals have from the TV deal. This is the type of money that can change the trajectory of the Royals Franchise. And why it is so important.
But the key to this is not fielding a historically bad baseball team, while also not adding to payroll. So, rolling out young guys just to see if they have what it takes is a poor plan. This is why I think you have seen Escobar get signed back and Duda brought in as some guaranteed pop in the lineup.
The plan is simple, get to 2020 with a shell of a team that doesn’t kill TV ratings. Rebuild the farm system. Once the new TV deal is signed, sell off everyone and start the Tanking process.
If the team is 25 games out of first place at the break however, I think the plan is to just sell off what can be sold and start the rebuild process.
At this point, pray for hot starts the next two seasons that keep TV Ratings high. Who knows, maybe this team can get some mojo. The pitching staff is capable. It really depends on what our position players are going to be able to do. Can Gordo bounce back? Does Salvy take another step? Can Whit repeat? Can Bonifacio learn to hit a curve? Did Soler get himself into a position to play 120+ games this year and really get in a rhythm? Is Cuthbert truly an MLB level player?
No matter what happens though, tell everyone to record every game. Watch everything they can. Go to as many games as possible. Because these next two seasons are amazingly important to the future of the franchise.
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@Kcmatt7 Another factor re Escobar (and Salvy) is keeping enough familiar faces so fans keep tuning in. If it is a wholesale turnover with crappy performance during the rebuild, the fans would leave in droves. Having a few WS winners still there gives everyone a feeling of a link to the past even as the new tide washes most of it away.
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@mayjay Bingo! I also think that is the only reason Whit is still here. Fan favorite. Could have been traded for the moon in the offseason I think.
Don’t look for any rational from signings or trades or not trading guys. Likely, the only rationale right now is getting through 2019 and then taking it from there.
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@Kcmatt7 Come to think of it, it might also be to avoid having to give Ned CPR whenever he looks around.
