todays games all over the nation
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T. Young is a very rare talent; at this moment, the only Big 12 player I am inclined to watch, other than our Jayhawks. In my opinion, he is much more enjoyable to watch than was collegiate frosh Andrew Wiggins. In recent Jayhawk seasons, the only two players who could match him in eye-catching astonishment might have been Joel Embiid and Josh Jackson. I think it is a shame that his OK teammates cannot deliver on his sometimes amazing passes. If the Sooners possessed a topflight forward or center, Trae would probably average 12 or 13 assists rather than his current 10; and opponents would not be so bent on double and triple teaming him right from the opening jump. I fully expect Bill Self and Co. to figure out a way to defeat Oklahoma, at least one of the two league games. But that kid is bound to give us fits…and to post some scary stats. I look forward to watching him play professional ball, surrounded by teammates whose skills are commensurate with his. By Year 3 in the NBA he will most likely be recognized as a top 6 NBA pt. guard. Just my not so humble opinion, freely shared!
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@Crimsonorblue22 Crimson, I think some of his chatter with officials is merely an attempt to swallow and adjust their whistles and viewpoints. Recently, I have noticed a bit of Young’s chesty shoulder shaking after his spectacular shot making, something which detracts from his normal steady serious demeanor. Curry does that kind of stuff, too. Maybe the kid is spending a bit too much time studying not only the play but the ugly glitter of NBA moneymakers.
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@REHawk Oops, I meant to type “swallow and DIGEST.”
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kjayhawks said:
@Jayballer54 I agree, Young is going to have to learn to use his teammates more. I thought he took so many ill advised shots yesterday when Latin had his man sealed for a dunk or lob. I read some folks complaining about some of the fouls DTG and Newman got yesterday, Young gets every call you could imagine around the hoop. He had one play where he fumbled it away and OSU took it without touching him but a foul was called. He lives at the line. If he doesn’t start playing thru other guys he may cause them to quit on him, you can get away with it awhile when winning games but a guy shooting it 39 times and only making 14 not gonna fly.
Here is some of what was written in a article. Oklahoma scored at just a 1.01 points per possession - -that’s not going to win you very many games.
Saying it’s not like Young doesn’t have other capable team mates of being and have been good secondary options - -James & Manek are shooting a combined 41 % on 3s. - It says you can’t seize opportunities if you have been missing 25 shots in 43 minutes.
They were saying last night during game day with Kentucky and then later Trae needs/better be getting his team mates more involved again - -his teammates are standing around -cause their thinking they not getting the ball - -to much one on one -
here is another post: Basketball is a TEAM game , something Trae obviously didn’t learn and STILL isn’t being taught. - He had 48 points but several of his 3’s that he made were poor shot selections.
Another point brought out in a article states: The question here isn’t whether Young is really sensational ( a point which I have stated many times here , he is an awesome talent BUT - then there are people that think I’m on a vendetta against Him what the F - - - ever ) – nobody not saying he isn’t really good. But it says the question is whether Okla would have a better chance of winning if the freshman did not record THE HIGHEST FIGURE FOR POSSESSION USAGE in the seventeen years of data set at Ken pom .com. - -many many other statements - -examples from people former players - BUT yet I have the vendetta - - I’ve had it in for him - -ya ok. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Not quite. If a player is shooting 60% from the line, the chance of making BOTH shots is only 36%.
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
@kjayhawks they always show Trae complaining to the refs, some day that will back fire
Ya perfect example. - -Scrum on the floor with Trae and another player - -Tare on his knee’s the other player gets control get’s the ball and Trae continues to sit on the floor and complain to the referee
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@JayHawkFanToo So, a 60% shooter can never make two consecutive free throws?
Better than the odds of throwing up a 30’, guarded trey…
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That is NOT what I said; I am just using plain statistics.
It is like flipping a perfectly balanced coin, the odds of getting head or tails is 50% every time and if you flip a coin 100 times you will get pretty close to a 50-50 distribution. Now, the odds of getting either side 2 times in a row is not 50% but 25% and the odds of getting either side 3 times in a rows is 12.5% and so on. This DOES NOT mean that you cannot or will not get one side 2 or 3 times in a row, only that the likelihood becomes smaller.
In comparison, a 70% shooter has a 49% chance of making both shots, an 80% shooter 64% chance and a 90% shooter and 81% chance. I would want Malik or Devonte at the line and not Doke or Garret.
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@JayHawkFanToo I’m not that smart. Math bugs me. My point was - Young took a really dumb shot (being behind by only two) and about any other would have been a better idea.
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I’ve seen a lot of Oklahoma games. Fun to watch when things are clicking. Things went bad this past week. The TCU game last weekend was a great game, the Ok St was a great game to watch. OU is going through changes as a young team.
Young is a great player, the best I’ve seen in the Big-12 since Durant. Especially when you consider Young doesn’t have the physical tools that usually separate the best from the best its more impressive what he’s been able to do. The expectations are through the roof with the amount of publicity he’s getting now. He’s got to get away from hero ball though.
His coach should be a major part in what happens going forward if OU is going to turn this around. The one thing Young has to change about his game is the selfish 30 footers. It’s a low % shot for a player who clearly has “in the gym range”. Kruger has to reign that in, we know other coaches wouldn’t allow a player so much freedom. You notice guys standing around for OU when they feel like the possession is going to end in a Young shot. I get the sense that the attention Trae gets has affected the team in a negative way. This week certainly felt like Trae let the attention go to his head. I can’t imagine the pressure he’s under right now. It’s a good lesson for him to be experiencing now before he becomes a professional.
I highly doubt Young is going to let a bad week ruin this great season he’s having. He’s just got to learn what a good shot is. His teammates also have to do a better job of capitalizing on opportunities. OU missed a ton of open shots off Young passes Saturday. OU isn’t good enough to play poorly and rely on Trae doing everything. Manek, James, McGusty all have to bring it every night.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see OU look completely different tomorrow. Its a big game for them
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@JayHawkFanToo Odds like those for coins do not transfer to human events. If they did, players’ shooting percentages would not change (improve or get worse) over time. 50% for coin flips is predictive due to perfectly balance coin. 60% for a shooter is merely historical data, and has nothing to do with the likelihood of making the next shot.
In other words, it is due to the presumed inherent, immutable characteristics of the coin that the next flip will be 50% either way. A basketball shot’s chance of going in depends on a huge number of other external variables–distance, defenders, etc.
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@mayjay I’m pretty sure he’s talking about free throws, so less variables and the math does work better. (Unguarded, same distance, same ball, same hoop, all the differences are mental and conditioning)
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With free throws, it is very predictable – Michael Jordan, for example, before his minor league baseball season, was between 83.2% and 85.1% in nine seasons.
You also have to look at the sample size, of course. We all know that.
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@BeddieKU23 I hope he plays exactly the same. With the same outcome.
It’s a big game for us too.
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@dylans @HighEliteMajor That makes more sense, but Garrett shooting 48% on FTs after shooting 61.8% in 165 attempts in HS seems to suggest a degee of unpredictability for players in the center of the bell curve. You would expect he would get better in college. Perhaps only having half the chances per game, or less, exacerbates the variation because if a guy has a pattern of making more after getting comfortable, his misses get added weight.
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Like other have mentioned, FT are a lot more predictable than other shots since the only variable is the player himself and, once his average has been established through enough attempts, the percentage tends to remain fairly constant (it is called regression to the mean) with the variation accounted by the standard deviation which, for a situation like this, would become narrower with a larger sample; 19 games give us a decent size sample.
My point was that although a 60% FT shooter can make 2 FTs, the odds are not as good as they would appear. Sending an 85% shooter to the line instead doubles the odds from 36% to 72%. Now Doke has made 2 FT in a row before but I would not count of him doing it more than roughly 25 out of 100 tries given his average of 50%. A made layup is the best shot and this is why teams prefer to foul rather than allow the layup.
Enough math for one day.
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@JayHawkFanToo Dok’s variation in FT performance does to probability he will make it what that proverbial lake that averages 3 inches deep does to someone who thinks that means they cannot drown in it.
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mayjay said:
@dylans @HighEliteMajor Garrett shooting 48% on FTs after shooting 61.8% in 165 attempts in HS
I didn’t know those hs FT numbers. So we have a starting guard who can’t shoot 3’s, FGs or FTs, and not being that big or tall is not much of rebounder.
Ack.
Are we really, really sure that taking a chance on giving someone else at least some those minutes isn’t a reasonable gamble before we get too close to March?
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Are we talking about the same player? Garret is 6’-5” and inch-for-inch perhaps the best rebounder on the team. Only Doke, Vick and Newman have better averages and they play a lot more minutes per game and Doke is half foot taller.
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I’ve thought we’ve been playing Garrett out of position since his confidence in his shot went down the tube. If he can’t shoot the 3 why is he roaming the perimeter so much. Why isn’t he the de-facto “4” in our 4 guard lineup. His shooting % is so skewed by his poor 3 pt %. He’s shooting 57% on 2’s. Why isn’t this guy closer to the basket where he makes a better %. He might even extend a few possessions in games (like we saw against Baylor) having him closer to the hoop for rebounds.
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@JayHawkFanToo ok, my bad, I retract the rebounding statement. But standing by my opinion that he is fast becoming more of a liability and I’d like to see others get more of his minutes.
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Don’t fret, soon enough Coach Self will figure out a way to get him more involved offensively. He might guard Trae tomorrow and shut him down which is better than any offense he can contribute. KU has plenty of shooters/scorers but not enough defense.
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@JayHawkFanToo I would love for you to be right and me to be wrong and have Garrett break out tomorrow, shut Trae down- and actually score some points. I’ll send out some good vibes…
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I will be shocked if Garrett can ever get going on offense. His confidence is just so shot at this point, I’m not sure there is any chance of recovery until the offseason.
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If he just concentrates on D he will be fine!
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I’ll take it.
