If KU wins the Big 12 tournament, they are a lock for the #1 overall seed. If they don’t win the Big 12 tournament, they are still a #1 seed, and probably no worse than the second overall #1. There just isn’t a ton of incentive for KU this year. They can’t really improve their stock, and it will be very difficult for them to fall very far. KU is #1 in BPI, #1 in RPI, has a top 10 schedule and has a lot of Tier 1 wins.
Let’s look at the other candidates for the #1 overall seed:
Gonzaga. They don’t have another opportunity for a big win. Saint Mary’s is #38 in BPI. That’s the next best team in the WCC. Gonzaga would have to win the WCC, and do so in very convincing fashion, to even have a shot at the #1 overall, and they still probably come up short. As of right now, they would be the third overall seed, so they have work to do.
Baylor. KU won the Big 12 regular season title by 2 games. That’s going to matter to the committee. Perhaps if Baylor can win the Big 12 tournament (and beat KU) they could have an argument for getting the #1 overall based on winning 2 of 3 against KU. But even then, KU is the second overall seed in that scenario (likely the only way they aren’t the #1 overall seed), unless Gonzaga wins every game in the WCC tournament convincingly.
Dayton. KU owns a neutral court win over them, so like Gonzaga, they would have to win the A-10 by laying waste to the competition, and even then, KU has the head to head win. I don’t see how Dayton can leapfrog KU.
Florida State. The only other major conference team with a chance at the #1 overall seed, IMHO. Maryland has too many losses. They would need to win the ACC tournament, and would probably need to do so through the most challenging path available (wins over Clemson, Duke and either Louisville or Virginia). Even then, that probably doesn’t boost their resume enough for the #1 overall, regardless of what KU does.
In this rare instance, it actually makes sense to rest guys. There isn’t anything to gain, and there is a ton that could be lost. Rest everyone you can and get ready for next week.
