Wilson to Kansas
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The ceiling for this team is a national title contender. That’s assuming everything goes well. That said, there’s legitimate issues this team will have to overcome to reach their ceiling. Some of those issues are within the players control and some are not.
Team chemistry absolutely should be better this year without Vick in the mix. The counterpoint is we don’t know yet how well Isaiah Moss will fit in on the court with this group yet because he’s still finishing up academic stuff at Iowa. This is a question because Moss is the one newcomer who will be playing big time minutes this year and potentially be a starter for this team.
The next issue is shooting. Bill Self did a great job of bringing in players who can develop into great shooters. That’s great for the future, but doesn’t necessarily help with the upcoming season though. @BShark posted some stats from the scrimmages this summer and while not definitive in any way, can give some insight into progress being made. Dotson appears to have some gains, Silvio and Dave don’t have three point range (I’ll touch more on that later), Agbaji looks like he’s still struggling from deep, McBride could earn some quality minutes with his shooting. Overall, with the three point line being scooted back, it looks like this team may be slightly better from deep than last year, but still nothing to brag about.
I mentioned Dave and Silvio’s lack of shooting from outside, this is critical because it means neither really needs to be guarded closely outside of about 10’. That means opposing post defenders will be able clog driving lanes more effectively which will significantly hurt Devon, Ochai, and Garrett. Their effectiveness on offense is predicated by their abilities to drive into the paint. With those driving lanes clogged, the offense could actually take a step back this year because last year, Lawson was at least good enough from 3 that teams had to respect him out there. That doesn’t appear to be the case with Silvio or McCormack at this point. I’ve said it before but, I’ll say it again, this is a team that’s going to play a lot of games in the 60’s this season because of their offense.
The next area is defense. On paper, this appears to be the area where KU will make the biggest gains from last season. The combination of Doke, Silvio, and McCormack anchoring the paint is going to make life in the paint very difficult for a lot of teams. The concern with those 3 defensively is rebounding. Silvio is an above average rebounder so there shouldn’t be an issues there, but Doke and Dave are not. Doke is a below average rebounder for his size and McCormack is just bad at rebounding for his size. Each are still doing a lot work on their bodies, so there is hope in that regard, but I wouldn’t expect dramatic changes out of either of them though.
On the perimeter, the 4 guys who should get most of the minutes are all above average to elite defenders. Marcus Garrett is the best defender in the Big 12, end of discussion. Devon Dotson has the abilities to be an all-Big 12 defender. Moss and Agbaji are also both above average defenders. On paper, this is the best defensive team Self has had since the 2012 runner up team.
Those are all the things this team can control, the one thing they can’t control and is the most concerning to me is health. Health is the one thing that can quickly derail everything this team has worked for (as we saw last season) and there legitimate reasons to worry about the health of this team.
Doke has never played a full season. We can say the wrist injuries were flukes and they sort of were, but Doke is definitely not the only person to get his hand caught in something and most people come away unscathed. Doke hasn’t twice now. Doke also missed the B12 tournament in 2018 because of knee issues. Doke is a very large human being and for being as young as he is, his muscles, joints, tendons, and ligaments don’t seem strong enough yet to support his frame. Doke making it through the season healthy is probably the single biggest individual factor in determining how far this Kansas team can go in the NCAA tournament.
That said, Doke isn’t the only player whose health is a concern going forward. Marcus Garrett said in the middle of the Summer that he still wasn’t a 100% from his high ankle sprain last year. Being brutally honest, if Garrett lost some quickness because of this and loses some of his defensive abilities, he very quickly becomes a pretty useless player to Kansas.
The other player with injury concerns is Ochai Agbaji. Are his shin issues chronic or a one time deal? If they are chronic and he loses his athleticism, he essentially falls into the same category as Garrett because Agbaji’s game is based on his athleticism. Without his athleticism, he’s not anything special.
Again, this ceiling of this team is national championship contender, but there are hurdles this team will have to clear to reach that ceiling and some of those hurdles are ones KU cannot control.
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Lots of “ifs” and rightly so.
Many of these concerns boil down to coaching and the players. The feel is different this year and I feel like this group will buy in much quicker to Selfball.
We often have a player or two that brings in mixed energy. I’m hoping that won’t be the case this year. It’s a huge factor.
I have no problem if we end a lot of games in the 60’s… as long as our opposition is in the 50’s. We have that potential if this team buys in early to Selfball.
I think Marcus will recover to maybe high 90% this year. Hopefully enough to keep his quickness. And I hope he makes a complete recovery, but you just can’t count on that type of injury ever healing back to 100%. The key is Marcus stays hungry. Players learn throughout their career to play with deficits. It’s their competitiveness that keeps them at a high level. Always. Actually… I’d like to see his gains in basketball IQ. If that happens he’s fine to be at 90+% and will show us huge improvement.
If the team stays focused as a positive, hardworking team, they will advance much quicker than we are used to. In past years we’ve even experienced teams moving backwards at some point. I don’t really see this happening because of positive leadership. I feel like this team has several players leading. If so, all the players will be kept in line.
I just keep hope this team has a great year. National Championship? Of course I’d like to see that but I don’t want to openly talk about it because it puts too much unneeded stress on our guys. Let’s just let them be. They don’t need any of us loading up on their expectations. This may be the only team I’ve seen under Self that truly is “Self” motivated!
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Texas Hawk 10 said:
The ceiling for this team is a national title contender. That’s assuming everything goes well. That said, there’s legitimate issues this team will have to overcome to reach their ceiling. Some of those issues are within the players control and some are not.
Team chemistry absolutely should be better this year without Vick in the mix. The counterpoint is we don’t know yet how well Isaiah Moss will fit in on the court with this group yet because he’s still finishing up academic stuff at Iowa. This is a question because Moss is the one newcomer who will be playing big time minutes this year and potentially be a starter for this team.
The next issue is shooting. Bill Self did a great job of bringing in players who can develop into great shooters. That’s great for the future, but doesn’t necessarily help with the upcoming season though. @BShark posted some stats from the scrimmages this summer and while not definitive in any way, can give some insight into progress being made. Dotson appears to have some gains, Silvio and Dave don’t have three point range (I’ll touch more on that later), Agbaji looks like he’s still struggling from deep, McBride could earn some quality minutes with his shooting. Overall, with the three point line being scooted back, it looks like this team may be slightly better from deep than last year, but still nothing to brag about.
I mentioned Dave and Silvio’s lack of shooting from outside, this is critical because it means neither really needs to be guarded closely outside of about 10’. That means opposing post defenders will be able clog driving lanes more effectively which will significantly hurt Devon, Ochai, and Garrett. Their effectiveness on offense is predicated by their abilities to drive into the paint. With those driving lanes clogged, the offense could actually take a step back this year because last year, Lawson was at least good enough from 3 that teams had to respect him out there. That doesn’t appear to be the case with Silvio or McCormack at this point. I’ve said it before but, I’ll say it again, this is a team that’s going to play a lot of games in the 60’s this season because of their offense.
The next area is defense. On paper, this appears to be the area where KU will make the biggest gains from last season. The combination of Doke, Silvio, and McCormack anchoring the paint is going to make life in the paint very difficult for a lot of teams. The concern with those 3 defensively is rebounding. Silvio is an above average rebounder so there shouldn’t be an issues there, but Doke and Dave are not. Doke is a below average rebounder for his size and McCormack is just bad at rebounding for his size. Each are still doing a lot work on their bodies, so there is hope in that regard, but I wouldn’t expect dramatic changes out of either of them though.
On the perimeter, the 4 guys who should get most of the minutes are all above average to elite defenders. Marcus Garrett is the best defender in the Big 12, end of discussion. Devon Dotson has the abilities to be an all-Big 12 defender. Moss and Agbaji are also both above average defenders. On paper, this is the best defensive team Self has had since the 2012 runner up team.
Those are all the things this team can control, the one thing they can’t control and is the most concerning to me is health. Health is the one thing that can quickly derail everything this team has worked for (as we saw last season) and there legitimate reasons to worry about the health of this team.
Doke has never played a full season. We can say the wrist injuries were flukes and they sort of were, but Doke is definitely not the only person to get his hand caught in something and most people come away unscathed. Doke hasn’t twice now. Doke also missed the B12 tournament in 2018 because of knee issues. Doke is a very large human being and for being as young as he is, his muscles, joints, tendons, and ligaments don’t seem strong enough yet to support his frame. Doke making it through the season healthy is probably the single biggest individual factor in determining how far this Kansas team can go in the NCAA tournament.
That said, Doke isn’t the only player whose health is a concern going forward. Marcus Garrett said in the middle of the Summer that he still wasn’t a 100% from his high ankle sprain last year. Being brutally honest, if Garrett lost some quickness because of this and loses some of his defensive abilities, he very quickly becomes a pretty useless player to Kansas.
The other player with injury concerns is Ochai Agbaji. Are his shin issues chronic or a one time deal? If they are chronic and he loses his athleticism, he essentially falls into the same category as Garrett because Agbaji’s game is based on his athleticism. Without his athleticism, he’s not anything special.
Again, this ceiling of this team is national championship contender, but there are hurdles this team will have to clear to reach that ceiling and some of those hurdles are ones KU cannot control.
Great post … I’ll amend to say our ceiling is national title winner, but that’s nit-picking. I feel confident, as well, that if Doke does get hurt, this team can still win the national title. The only truly indispensable player for that pursuit is Dotson, in my opinion.
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Here is a sign I will be looking for this year… I’m looking for games to start out a lot different.
Think back to last year. How many games did we get out of the blocks fast? Right… very few. And we often struggled to beat teams that were far inferior. We really drug out 20+ victory season over the finish line.
That is not Kansas basketball. And I’ve seen this behavior often in several of our recent teams.
This year I am hoping to see us get out quickly on teams. And if we aren’t scoring a lot, then we are shutting them down from the opening whistle.
Up to this point, we have a team that has the drive. They will be excited to get out and on the court and play while in the locker room before the game. Motivated.
This is the key factor I will be looking for early in the year and with the hope we carry it out all year.
Factor two will be endurance. Can we keep the pressure on. Will we have a killer instinct, or not? Another trait we truly missed last year.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Moss played with Devon growing up. I think he’ll adjust.
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I’ve never been so opinionless on a KU basketball team. I just have too many questions.
Will Ochai get back to how he started?
Can Garrett improve enough offensively that we can space the floor?
How good is Moss going to be?
How good is Silvio going to be?
How good is Dave going to be?
Can Wilson handle playing the 4 in college? Or will Mitch still have to be the 4th big?
Is Harris a more capable backup PG than McBride?
Is McBride such a good shooter he needs minutes at the 2?
Does Enaruna get any run? Or is he still trying to figure it all out?
Do we start our best defensive lineup? Or do we throw Moss in there to give us a shooter?
What pace do we want to play at? Or will the tempo change based on who is on the floor?
Will we play much small ball at all?
I’ll have to wait until exhibition games I think before I can make any sort of declarative statement.
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@Kcmatt7 If you can answer all those questions after an exhibition game, ESPN should be paying you $$$ for color commentary!
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@Kcmatt7 Hmmm. Here’s a question that can help with your opinion, this year in particular – Who is our coach? Given the structure of this team, I have great confidence that it’s going to be highly positive. Knowing our coach, and what he’s proven in the past, the pieces that Self has (and their skill sets) makes this a really good match. That why I’m optimistic. I view this as a near perfect fit. Not perfect – perfect would be a major league ball handler at the two spot. But pretty stout.
My main concern is speed of play and ball handling. Because if there is no back up PG ready to play (shaky with the ball/TO machine, etc), we change dramatically when Dotson is off the floor. Slower play with Garrett in that role and a much different dynamic on the offensive end. This could create a lot of vulnerability.
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ajvan said:
@Kcmatt7 If you can answer all those questions after an exhibition game, ESPN should be paying you $$$ for color commentary!
Lol I mean you’ll be able to see enough to know whether your assumptions were way off or not. And some of the minutes distributions will answer a few questions alone.
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HighEliteMajor said:
@Kcmatt7 Hmmm. Here’s a question that can help with your opinion, this year in particular – Who is our coach? Given the structure of this team, I have great confidence that it’s going to be highly positive. Knowing our coach, and what he’s proven in the past, the pieces that Self has (and their skill sets) makes this a really good match. That why I’m optimistic. I view this as a near perfect fit. Not perfect – perfect would be a major league ball handler at the two spot. But pretty stout.
My main concern is speed of play and ball handling. Because if there is no back up PG ready to play (shaky with the ball/TO machine, etc), we change dramatically when Dotson is off the floor. Slower play with Garrett in that role and a much different dynamic on the offensive end. This could create a lot of vulnerability.
Oh I love the gritty somewhat ego-less team. It is right in Bill’s wheelhouse. And the regular season is all but guaranteed to be a success under him.
My concerns lie with how well this team is built for the tournament.
In my mind, there are a few ways the season could go.
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Our bricklaying starting lineup couldn’t come at a better time. With the 3pt line getting pushed further back, Doke, Dave and De Sousa will be an unstoppable trio in a season where the 3 pointer hasn’t been adjusted to and the big man is reborn. This could make us NC good.
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Our bricklaying starting lineup gets exposed in the 3 point era. And we get exposed once again. Not a NC team.
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Our stud defense starting lineup is a fantastic contrast to our offensive-minded subs. We are able to stymie opponents early, go on runs when they’re vulnerable, and close down games effectively. This is a NC option.
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Our team fails to mesh together nicely, and our offense is unable to find much of a rhythm. We revert to badball, and just hope Dotson and Doke can do enough to carry us. This is very unlikely to result in a NC.
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CJ Moore had a great KU hoops mailbag for The Athletic this morning. He thinks Garrett starts over Moss, at least initially. He also thinks the identity of the team will be stifling defense, similar to the 11-12 bunch. Not sure if it’s breaking news, but Self is planning to play big 80% of the time, then use someone like Wilson as a small ball 4. Could also play Garrett at that spot since he’s 6’7 with the hair and is such a good defender. He also reported Ochai’s shot is much improved. They made a couple mechanical tweaks over the summer and his shot is more consistent now.
Also, check out how slim Udoka looks now. Dude is really gearing up to play extended minutes. He’s thin enough now to wear Mitch’s shorts. https://www.instagram.com/p/B0Y3IxAF373/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
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FarmerJayhawk said:
CJ Moore had a great KU hoops mailbag for The Athletic this morning. He thinks Garrett starts over Moss, at least initially. He also thinks the identity of the team will be stifling defense, similar to the 11-12 bunch. Not sure if it’s breaking news, but Self is planning to play big 80% of the time, then use someone like Wilson as a small ball 4. Could also play Garrett at that spot since he’s 6’7 with the hair and is such a good defender. He also reported Ochai’s shot is much improved. They made a couple mechanical tweaks over the summer and his shot is more consistent now.
Also, check out how slim Udoka looks now. Dude is really gearing up to play extended minutes. He’s thin enough now to wear Mitch’s shorts. https://www.instagram.com/p/B0Y3IxAF373/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
I thought Doke looked super athletic in the scrimmages. I guess this would explain why.
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@drgnslayr I don’t see any guys on the upcoming roster that scream problem player or locker room divider. BUT we will have to see with the Freshmen.
@HighEliteMajor I said this before but it boils down to do we need McBride’s shooting more than we need Harris’s all around PG game. This is assuming Harris can get himself eligible as a full qualifier. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with the back-up PG spot.
@Kcmatt7 I worry about bad ball as well. As @Texas-Hawk-10 has fairly mentioned before this team looks more experienced than they are especially when it comes to actually playing for Self and playing together. Silvio is a JR that’s played 20 games total, Doke is a SR that’s logged under 1200 total minutes, Moss is a first year guy when it comes to Self etc…
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@FarmerJayhawk Interesting nugget I would not have really known from that article…
“This is only the third time under Self the Jayhawks will head into the season with 13 eligible scholarship players.”
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BShark said:
@FarmerJayhawk Interesting nugget I would not have really known from that article…
“This is only the third time under Self the Jayhawks will head into the season with 13 eligible scholarship players.”
I thought that was interesting too. Just looking across a lot of elite programs, it’s more rare than you’d think to have all 13 spots filled with guys who can play. Programs like KU, UNC, dook, and UK won’t take guys just to take them.
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BShark said:
@Kcmatt7 I worry about bad ball as well. As @Texas-Hawk-10 has fairly mentioned before this team looks more experienced than they are especially when it comes to actually playing for Self and playing together. Silvio is a JR that’s played 20 games total, Doke is a SR that’s logged under 1200 total minutes, Moss is a first year guy when it comes to Self etc…
Really good point here.
I’m sure my worries will be quelled once the season starts and we beat the ever living shit out of Duke.
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@Kcmatt7 Great stuff. Lots of good questions there. I am going to predict we will be a top 3 defensive team. A dominant defensive team. I think we’ll score enough to win, but maybe not enough to make us happy. I also think this will be the toughest team we’ve had in a long, long time. Mentally tough. Physically tough. I think our shooting will be good enough to win. I think it helps having Doke back to make easy buckets. National championship good? That’s really the big question, isn’t it? I think we’re all hedging from last year’s not so wonderful season. Understandable. I think we’re national championship good. Bill sure looks like a much better coach when they hit their 2nd year. Anytime Bill has experienced players, he does well. UNC won a title a few years ago barely shooting the 3- they simply killed everyone on the boards. So, it can be done.
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I just want a team that’s fun to watch. Goes hard, doesn’t take off possessions, values d, attempts good passes, has a couple adequate gunners, doesn’t have off court drama, has good on court chemistry, has likeable personalities, wants to be there, and learns from their mistakes. If we have all that, both my enjoyment and team success should follow.
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You mean… win a National Championship! Ha… pretty hard to fail with all the elements you want to see.
College basketball (as a hole) continues to decline. It isn’t the good ol’ days. There doesn’t exist many (if any) real teams with most of the pieces.
We take what we can get and we enjoy it the best we can, because this is where D1 has gone.
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drgnslayr said:
College basketball (as a hole) continues to decline.
I don’t know, I would think women’s CBB is considerably better if you’re focused on the hole.
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@HighEliteMajor dude…
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Some things never change
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HighEliteMajor said:
drgnslayr said:
College basketball (as a hole) continues to decline.
I don’t know, I would think women’s CBB is considerably better if you’re focused on the hole.
Ha! I chuckled.
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There are several things I prefer in the women’s game… like… at least the women know how to seal the boards!
