23-8
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Current kenpom projection for KU. I’d take that in a heartbeat. I think 21-10 is still firmly in play. The seeding for this team is firmly up in the air imo.
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It’s going to be anywhere from 2-4. With the NET, a lot of the subjectivity is out the window.
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If we are very lucky, I also see 23-8. I’m feeling more confident after today’s win. The key game will be @OSU.
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We’re 20-6 now with 5 to play. We are finishing either 24-7, or 25-6. Only loss at TT, but I’m not giving that away. That could be the classic Bill Self rabbit out of the hat. We aren’t losing at OU or OSU.
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KU moved up a few places in Kenpom to 15. Offense- #27, Defense #12.
No idea if they will make any movement in the NET when that comes out (they were 18th) coming into this week.
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25-6.
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KUSTEVE said:
25-6.
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BeddieKU23 said:
KU moved up a few places in Kenpom to 15. Offense- #27, Defense #12.
No idea if they will make any movement in the NET when that comes out (they were 18th) coming into this week.
Still 18th.
I’m still waiting to judge how it all shakes out after seeding is done.
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@KUSTEVE I like that optimism!!
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Certainly the numbers can’t account for a team on the upswing and gaining chemistry. I know the last 3 opponents haven’t been great but we all know what we are seeing post Vick. I don’t know what is holding KU back at #18 but I don’t think its accurate.
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The NET rankings seem to be helping the good mid-majors gain some footing. At least when you look at where some are positioned now.
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@HighEliteMajor It appears that way. The margin of victory being more involved is both helping and hurting the model. Part of it is that there is just no effective way to judge a team that plays the schedule KU plays vs Lipscomb. Either you devalue SOS and overvalue other factors, or vice-versa.
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BeddieKU23 said:
Certainly the numbers can’t account for a team on the upswing and gaining chemistry. I know the last 3 opponents haven’t been great but we all know what we are seeing post Vick. I don’t know what is holding KU back at #18 but I don’t think its accurate.
Agreed. And they don’t value SOS as much as I think they should.
It’s just hard for me to believe that the team with the #1 SOS that only has 6 losses is ranked behind the #2 SOS that has 8 losses. To me, that is proof of overvaluing the margin of victory.
Of course, if everything ends up seeded the way it should, than perhaps I have no issues. It might even put teams like Buffalo, Lipscomb, Utah State, etc in more accurately seeded positions.
If that is the case, than the model did it’s job.
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Good points. I guess we will all be in wait and see mode when they announce the seeds. I thought Margin of Victory was capped at 10? I guess I’m still a little bit behind on this but I didn’t think KU would be getting hosed at #18 either for weeks now. Like you said nobody has played a better schedule, nobody has beaten more Quadrant 1 teams and the efficiency models put KU in the Top 30 both Offense/Defense. So I’m really missing what’s holding us back. Can it really be the overvaluing of margin of victory?
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@BeddieKU23 From what I can tell, that is what is holding us back. We absolutely crush it on the rest of the criteria. At least, from what I can see.
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Interesting. I fail to see the logic in margin of victory being a significant factor in this ranking system then. KU’s average margin of victory in its 20 wins is 10. They have played 11 teams that were either ranked at the time of playing them or have been ranked at some point. Naturally its going to lead to closer games. If KU was blowing out good teams we sure as heck wouldn’t need a NET ranking to know how good we are. I know this is to be used for seeding but it certainly feels we are getting hung out to dry for playing a tough schedule (something you should be rewarded for). I’m not saying KU is a Top 10 team at the moment but we are trending up and the metrics are not catching that sudden change (besides Kenpom) it looks.
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While KU may not be a top 10 team in our minds; they are ranked 12 behind 3 teams they’ve beaten (with Dok). I honestly believe KU has 2-3 losses and is ranked in the top 4 with a healthy roster all season. Oh well, Bill’s gotta earn his check this year!
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Well…win today and it hits.
