BOLD PREDICTIONS
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@KUSTEVE I like your list.
I think KJ is a player we underestimate, I think he will push Vick at the 3 for minutes.
I’d also like to think that Mitch can do two things for us this year that he wasn’t given an opportunity to do last year: hit 3’s, and guard the stretch 4.
20 ppg for Grimes? I think that would put him in company with only Frank’s senior year and Simien’s senior year under Self. He might be our lead scorer, but 20 ppg seems doubtful, especially with the depth of talent on team.
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I’m still not sold on Charlie.
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Pretty good set of predictions. Grimes averaging 20 would be something else considering the current record for a freshman at KU is Wiggins at 17.1 ppg and Jackson averaged 16.3 ppg with Manning somewhere in between.
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@JayHawkFanToo If I say Grimes averages 14.5 ppg, then it’s not bold. It’s expected. Like the line from Seinfield…“I’m out here, Jerry…and I’m lovin’ it”!
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Come on, folks…don’t pick on my boldies…add some of your own!!!
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Bill Self’s rug is actually a magic carpet that will carry us to the Final Four.
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@dylans Fantasy will set you free!
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@KUSTEVE Too much talent for anyone to average 20 and Dedrick will be lead in scoring.
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Come March, Andrea Hudy will douse the team in her secret “call fouls on the other guy” pheromone (codename “Zebra piss”) and every team will foul out against us in the tournament leading to expanded classification of controlled substances, but not vacation of the title.
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I also predict that Jaybate will bring back the pro wrestling hold made famous in the 1960s named the “spinning toe hold” ( made famous by Dory Funk Jr ), and apply it on a Nike rep. Then I envision him climbing to the top rope, leaping, and laying down the “Soupbone” on the rep’s throat, before pinning him.
Literal Reader Alert: The above scene described might not be a realistic event. Consult your doctor before using.
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Lagerald Vick, all conference.
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Garret will be a pleasant surprise from the 3. In fact, KU will be a good 3 point shooting team.
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I’m still up in the air about KJ. Seems like he has a lot of fans on here. Hey KJ lovers, tell me what you love about KJ…make me a believer.
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@KUSTEVE He’s no Brady Morningstar, but he’ll do.
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How KJ does will depend in part on how Vick does since they will be competing for basically the same SF position, although KJ is more versatile and can also play SG and PF. My guess is if Vick explodes like many of us think he might, this could well end up being his team and then KJ takes over next season; KU has done well with seniors leading the team recently.
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@JayHawkFanToo That’s what I was thinking. I went back and looked at his tapes again, and he really moves well, has a nice mid range jumper, hits the glass, and moves really well for being so tall. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if we see Grimes play some point, with Vick at the 2, and KJ at the 3 at times. KJ could be one of our big guns next year. He reminds me of watching Durant the way he moves on the court ( sans the incredible jump shot).
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I keep thinking about your prediction that Dedric is our top rebounder.
I’m not sure where he will be positioned most of the time on the floor. I have the feeling he will be the guy that goes all over the floor on offense, including pulling outside for the trey, but more important, to set high ball screens. My guess… he’ll live around the FT line and on out to the top of the key.
That can actually help him rebound if we are hoisting up lots of treys that give off long rebounds.
I see Dedric as a dream “pick and pop” and “pick and roll” big!
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@drgnslayr On defense, I would think he would be in the TROB spot. We haven’t had that in a good while. We’ve had Svi, JJ, and Perry at the 4 the past 5/6 years- not exactly atypical 4s. I would envision Dedric near the rim on defense, with the ability to guard stretch 4s all over the court. He has a much better nose for the ball than Doke, and should be on the other side of the rim opposite Doke. On offense, he’ll be all over the court. I am assuming Bill will want to utilize all of this size we have.
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How different is the outcome in the F4 game if Dedrick could been guarding Novas 4? He will be free to roam for O or D board with Doke and Mac down low. Dedrick ave 21 and 11.
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@Fightsongwriter Defensively, we would’ve been world’s better. Offensively, I had no doubt that they would not have been able to play our 3 ballers so tight with Dedric and KJ roaming the court. It will be quite a different ball game when we play them in December, imo.
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My bold prediction is that Doke is going to be 1st Team All Big 12. I have heard very little nationally about him when the upcoming year is being discussed and I have been a bit surprised at how little we are talking about him on this site! I feel that he will average 14, 10 and 3 and will be an absolute beast. The NBA told him quite candidly what he needs to work on and I expect to see those improvements right out of the gate this year. His jump hook will be improved. His FT’s will be improved. His nose for the ball on rebounds will be improved. His awareness of how and when to block shots will be improved!!!
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Dedric Lawson 1st team all American.
Doke 2nd team all American
Grimes Big12 freshman of the year
Bill Self National coach of the year
KU will cut down the nets in April.
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Dedric averages a double double- is clearly the man on a talented team.
Charlie leads the team in assists.
Dotson and Grimes- one drafted in top 20, one comes back for soph year.
Next years starters- Charlie, KJ, returning from above, Big Dave and Lightfoot
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KJ adds an element of versatility that most college teams simply do not have. He can punish smaller guys inside, and terrorize bigger guys on the perimeter. At the same time, he’s quick enough to handle small guys on the perimeter, but big enough to handle 4s in the post.
He gives KU a distinct advantage on offense (will probably always have a MUA) without giving anything back on the other end, where he will likely never be at a disadvantage.
As for my predictions:
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Quentin Grimes averages 13/5/4, but is a first team all conference player based on incredible efficiency, as he shoots 50/40/85.
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Dedric is Big 12 POY, again based on startling efficiency, as his numbers don’t blow anyone away 15/10/3, but he shoots 55/35/75
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Doke shoots over 80%, but is on the bench at crunch time.
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KU’s crunch time lineup is Dotson-Grimes-Vick-KJ-Dedric
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Dotson does not start early in the year, but becomes the starting PG right after Finals.
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Vick’s averages drop (from 12/5/2 to 10/4/2), but, consistent with the trend above, his efficiency rises as he improves from 49/37/67 to 52/40/70.
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KJ Lawson is second team all conference despite not averaging double figures in points or rebounds, and despite not ranking in the conference top 10 in any major statistical category.
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Charlie Moore averages more assists than points, as he makes a name for himself feeding Doke, the Lawson brothers, Vick and Grimes off the bench.
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Devon Dotson turns heads on the defensive end. With the team having so many weapons, Dotson becomes the tip of the spear on the defensive end, leading the team in steals and playing the type of defense we haven’t seen since Russell Robinson.
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Marcus Garrett shoots better from three (around 33%), but plays limited minutes.
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@JayhawksandChill Next year’s starting lineup: Dotson/Charlie/KJ/ Mitch/ Big Dave. Or, Dotson/KJ/Hurt/JRE/Big Dave. Or, Charlie/Dotson/Garrett/unknown freshman/ Dave. BTW, Big Dave is killing it on his overseas trip:
http://www2.kusports.com/weblogs/tale-tait/2018/aug/15/ku-freshman-david-mccormack-nearly-avera/
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@justanotherfan Great stuff. I am definitely warming to KJ. Can you imagine how tough our perimeter defense will be with Dotson, Marcus, and KJ? They will flat get after people, and our huge front line will allow us to play the intense pressure defense on the perimeter that Russ and the gang played in their national championship march. No more Arizona St/Nova throw downs like last year.
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Don’t underestimate Grimes, either. With him having more talent around him, he will be able to exert more energy on defense without having to worry about trying to score 50 points a night.
The defense should be nasty.
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ROTF!!
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I’m intrigued with McCormack, too.
QGrime too high at 20, unless he grows a trey.
Vick will be a major force.
My guess is Silvio is the super Nova if there is one.
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I keep hoping Hudy and PTs and OTs have worked on Doke’s arm to give him the strength and control to develop a coordinated, efficient shooting motion. If they have, he will join KU’s list of great centers.
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@jaybate-1.0 yep.
I predict something happens at some point in the season: injury, ineligibility , something with our starters, and Silvio goes off.
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@jaybate-1.0 Grimes is an astonishing talent- he might be the best OAD yet. Even if he doesn’t hit 20 a game, I have no doubt he will be one of two overall leading scorers, along with Dedric.
The guy I am probably overlooking in all this is Marcus Garrett. If the Townsend magic works on Garrett’s 3 point shot the way it has worked with others, then we truly have a lethal weapon. Cause Garrett is damn good in every phase of the game EXCEPT shooting. If he solves that riddle, we’re talking a 4 year guy who is All Conference his junior yr, with a shot at All American his senior year. I noticed in the summer scrimmages that he’s been driving the ball to the rim with authority, with a quickness I haven’t seen since Tayshawn. Watching him, Dotson, and Grimes attack the basket will be something else.
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Great news about Garrett’s driving. He was kind of a blank slate waiting to be written on offensively. KU’s staff has a good record of finding ways for guys to offend that helps both them and the team. Occasional failures but mostly successes.
Controversial Hunch: Vick still being sharply underestimated. Self had him playing the domestique role last season and he got in a funk about it, but played the role well when positive. Guys that have done this role for Self as underclassmen have tended to have large senior seasons, even despite stormy stretches of impatient youth the next to last season. Look at it this way: Vick started and did pretty much everything one can do for a team as domestique for a Final Four team. He is a gifted athlete who has been in the toughening box. He has had an off season to work on his dribbling. Self may play OADs so as to get more OADs, but Self could give the keys to the Ferrari to Vick and know he could run LeMans and win. You know Self. He can play Charlie and Garrett with Dotson and Grimes, or he can play Vick 30, who has started in a Final Four with them, and rotate Garrett with known defense and a drive for 20 and rotate Charlie for all of them to keep ball handling as needed.
I see a starting perimeter of Vick, Grimes and Dotson if Dotson can handle D1 speed and violence, else Garrett.
I know folks doubt Vick’s dribbling/passing at point, but he is the best perimeter player on the team and, like Tyshawn once upon a time, offers an unparalleled MUA in athleticism/height/speed tradeoff in D1.
If Self can believe in Vick’s Head, which is probably hard for Self, Self has a championship perimeter to go with his flock of six bigs.
I believe Self, the river boat gambler, as Slayr calls him, will let it all ride on Vick at point to start. Even if Vick crapped out early, it would buy development time for the newbies.
Vick is ripe for the role.
And Self tends to try to scheme to get his five most talented guys that are sufficiently developed on the floor as starters.
Vick is one of those three perimeter guys out of the gate.
Self has to ride him, or spend a season with every guy on the team knowing the team could be better.
Self won’t let that happen.
Self’s only viable alternative is to give the keys to Grimes or Dotson and pray for instant maturity (and low TOS), which even Mario Chalmers, Josh Jackson, and Josh Selby lacked to be given the keys as frosh, and let Vick play the wing.
Don’t see Self doing this first half season except for development stretches against weak teams.
Vick fails the eye test for many, because he looks a little crazed with the stare and the hair. He also looked a little awkward ball handling, because he was obviously more overwhelmed doing all the chores than was Devonte before him, who made domestique look so easy Devonte’s junior season.
But I argue that, except for Vick’s funk (and its a rare KU player that doesn’t have one under Self’s relentless needle) and short trey slump, Vick did the domestique role as well, or better, than Devonte otherwise.
Vick is a right tail character, if you will. Most fans hate uniqueness, when it comes down to point guards. They will tolerate and even relish freaks elsewhere, but they want the eye test passed at point. Fans struggled with Tyshawn and Elijah, because both failed the eye test and legacy expectation of how the position “should” be played. They over focused on both those players’ traditional deficiencies and underestimated the benefits of their unorthodoxies.
But here is the proof in the pudding. KU crapped out in March with eye test orthodoxies, like Devonte and Frank, same as it crapped out with eye test unorthodoxies, like Tyshawn and Elijah.
I grew up with racial eye tests that said you couldnt start five blacks and win a ring. You couldn’t start a black point guard unless he was super human like Oscar Robertson. I grew up with eye tests saying Magic was too tall for point guard. I grew up with eye tests saying Bird couldn’t make it in the NBA because he was white and couldn’t jump.
I. DON’T. BELIEVE. IN. EYE. TESTS.
Vick is like many unorthodox talents. His flaws are used as evidence he cannot get better and do what his team needs.
This team needs Vick to lead it AND be point guard to become the best team it can be, or else Vick needs to have the greatest season a KU wing ever had and pray Grimes or Dotson can mature and protect and distribute instantly. No one else can make KU as good as Vick at point could make it.
Most are sure Vick can’t do it, same as most were sure Tyshawn and Elijah couldn’t do it. But Tyshawn and Elijah both led KU to titles and post season, same as Frank and Devonte did.
Vick da man!
He is about to learn what real loneliness is. He thinks being viewed as weird is bad. He thinks not being accepted is bad.
But just ask Devonte, or Frank, or Tyshawn, or Elijah, or Sherron, or Marcus, or Brandon, or anyone given the keys, when KU is down 14 with ten to go on an opponent’s floor and no teammate can hit shit, or find a weakness in his match up, or stop their best guy. Ask them how lonely it is when you take the ball and begin the long grind back everyone doubts can be made. Ask them how lonely it is when you come up short and have to face the reporters and your teammates are all showering and your coach’s eyes are saying: it’s on you dude. You wanted the keys. I can’t play for you. It’s your team. Find a way to make it work—to make them believe again.
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@jaybate-1.0 I envision Vick with a different role, simply because we have 3…possibly 4 skill sets on the perimeter that are already developed at the point, and Bill is always going to try to utilize what he has, unless he doesn’t have it ( EJ…Nadiir). KJ is way too tall, and although his handles are not bad for a 6’7" guy, I think bringing up the ball, setting the offense, dribbling out of traps etc might not put his best foot forward. That leaves Grimes, Charlie, and Dotson as our primary ball handlers. Grimes could play point for us right now, but he most likely won’t. He’s too good off the ball to load him down with the point responsibilities. That leaves Charlie and Dotson. Both are tailor made for pg. Dotson is very well coached, and considered to be a very good defender. His bugaboo is outside shooting, which will be a point of emphasis, I’m sure. Charlie will surprise a lot of people on here. You take a tough Chicago kid with a chip on his shoulder, and we could see shades of the good Sherron…although the defense might not be as good as a Dotson.
The wildcard for me at point isn’t Vick…the wildcard is Marcus Garrett. Garrett was running point in summer scrimmages, and looked pretty damn good, imo. Not saying he’s going to start at point, but if Dotson isn’t ready, and Charlie starts flinging shots up all over the place playing hero ball, Marcus made all state playing the point. If he gets his trey % up, maybe Marcus finds some minutes at the point. Coach will figure out a way to get Marcus in the game, and this might be a way to give him 5+ extra minutes.
My thoughts with Vick are he is such an offensive weapon, it would a crime to put him at point, even if he could probably technically play there. You have a 3 baller deluxe, who is used on plays to jump practically out of the gym on lobs. He is our zone buster in the middle of the lane, and he can drive and rock the rim in a twitch. And there is no doubt Vick is our best outside bomber. That said, Vick doesn’t shoot 3s off the dribble- he is a set shooter. He has to be fed. To me, he’s simply too good an offensive weapon to burden him with trying to run the team. I think him and KJ share the 3 spot, with Vick also splitting with Garrett the available minutes at the 2 when Grimes is out of the game.
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Garrett would be a good investment at point because he will be at KU for two years. Vick, Grimes and Dotson will all be gone in one. But he is at least a year away developmentwise. So: it still comes down to choosing between Grimes, Dotson and Vick for a starting PG to get the best 5 for stArters. I could see Garrett bumping Dotson one season at non PG
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Bold prediction: Kansas football wins its first road game this decade this season.
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@jaybate-1.0 I don’t see Dotson going to the NBA for at least two years. Such is life for the short guys.
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At this point I would think that Moore will start at PG although Dotson might take over as the season progresses; either way, both will take the bulk of the time. In a pinch or when a taller PG is needed, I can see Grimes playing PG; he did extremely well playing the position at the U19 tournament and Coach Self would have no problem having him play the position. Next, it would be Garret who already has PG experience. Pretty decent depth for the position and I just don’t see Vick running point but likely sliding to the SG when needed.
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Then there’s no way Dotson will be good enough to start and Self really only signed 1 OAD.
I’m ok with that assessment. Garrett might likely start ahead of him.
Vick still da man for me at pg.
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@jaybate-1.0 @KUSTEVE thank you both for the food for thought about Vick or Garrett at point. I had not really thought about it… But if either could do it well… Look out!
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We are both doing some envelope stretching.
It could be Charlie at PG, because of chemistry, orthodoxy, years remaining at KU, and Self being able to go two deep at both the wing spots with Charlie and Dotson at point.
But Self has a history of breaking from orthodoxy to get a scheme that gets his best 5 on the floor and his best 7 in March. It all depends on whether his best five can mesh via unorthodoxy and play best, or whether an orthodox 5 with less ability can play best?
Self will surely explore both paths, because he just has not shown a willingness to go long bench with an 8-10 man rotation in March, even when he has had that kind of depth in the past.
He will long bench through February to keep everyone happy, but the close games against good teams will reveal which 5 and 7 will the path decided on for March.
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Moore might start ahead of him but Dotson is plenty capable of taking over the position by the time conference play starts. Grimes played PG under Self for the USA Team in the U19 Tournament and he was the MVP of the tournament; he will likely play PG in the NBA and would certainly play PG ahead of Vick and so would Garret who was the HS Gatorade POY in Texas playing as PG. Highly unlikely Vick plays PG, he is the best returning 3 point shooter and likely will play like he did last season positioning himself in the corner for open 3s or driving the baseline for layups or dunks.
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The trouble is Garrett isn’t ready for the keys, he’s not an option developmentally.
Dotson probably won’t be ready for the keys all season either, unless he’s more special than Devonte, Frank, Tyshawn, Elijah, Sherron, Chalmers and RussRob. The chance of Dotson being better than all those guys, since he is not penciled as an OAD, seems slim.
This brings us back to Vick and Charlie. Charlie is an orthodox choice that has played a year of D1 and matured a year sitting. But Charlie is just no where near the athlete, defender, driver, or 3 pt shooter that Vick is.
Vick has the experience of backing up Devonte at PG and of sharing bringing the ball up on a Final Four team. He was clearly being groomed for PG duty, until he apparently failed to commit and Self signed Dotson.
Vick at PG is who you swing for the fence with—who you risk everything on at PG to hold MUA at PG every game of the tourney to try to win a ring.
Charlie is who you compromise with hoping Dotson will mature into a solid, very talented 20 mpg backup to Charlie (like Sherron was for RussRobb) and hope Grimes and Vick make 39% from trey and you ride your bigs. It’s the conservative play unless Grimes, Doke, and Dedrick are a murderers row like Chalmers/Rush/Shady. Dotson also has to be willing to stay a second season to make it work also.
A perimeter of PG Vick, 3 Grimes, and 2 Garrett/Dotson would be unstoppable in D1. It would likely hold MUA every game at all spots.
Rings or titles?
Which does Self want to play for?
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Vick did not play PG last season at all. Graham was the primary PG and averaged almost 38 mpg and when he was not playing PG, his primary back up was Newman and even Svi would bring the ball up the court occasionally as did Garret but not Vick. If Vick would have shown any potential to play PG, Coach Self would not have played Devonte as much as he did.
Take a look at the Dotson videos, he is one of the faster if not the fastest PG in a recent memory. He might not be a OAD (but he could well be) but perhaps a TAD. If one of those two is not available, Grimes would be the next choice; he played PG for the U19 National team coached by Self and he made the All-Tournament team and was named the Tournament MVP. Grimes is perhaps the most complete and ready to the next level play KU has had in a long time.
The backcourt will be primarily Moore, Dotson Grimes and Garret and Vick will share time with K. J. at the wing/SF and he might slide to SG when they are both in the same lineup, depending on matchups but I just don’t see Vick playing PG at all when there is a better role for him and 4 quality player available and better suited to the PG position.
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KUSTEVE said:
@jaybate-1.0 I don’t see Dotson going to the NBA for at least two years. Such is life for the short guys.
There was an excellent article last week addressing just that - that the NBA’s smallest guys are getting bigger, making it tougher for smaller guys to succeed in the pros.
That’s also bad news for the career prospects of a guy like Frank Mason, who is certainly on the small side for an NBA player. According to the article I linked to, 6-2.25 is the average size for an NBA PG.
Dotson is listed as either 6-1 or 6-2, depending on who you read, so likely a little below average size for an NBA PG. That doesn’t mean he can’t make it in the NBA. It does mean that it will be that much more of a challenge for him to make it in the NBA.
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@justanotherfan He’ll have to develop a trey gun to go to the pros. Everything else is right there. I think he’ll play a ton this year.
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Vick rested Graham during play many times a game, same as Devonte used to do for Frank. Vick also initiated from wing point, same as Devonte used to do for Frank. Next.
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5 star/OADs have to be given 20mpg and start, or there is recruiting blowback downstream, so Dotson WILL likely get 20 mpg somewhere. It’s a much bigger step to 30-35 mpg with the keys. Odds are he won’t make that next step, unless he is an OAD type, or willing to commit to two seasons. Self has to groom someone for PG for the following season, as he always does, by either giving him 15-20 mpg, as a backup PG, or by starting him as a domestique at the two.
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We must have watched different games.
More to the point, why would Coach Self play Vick at the PG when he has 4 player, 5 if you count K. J., that have proven they can play PG? Is not like he need to groom Vick for next season, right?
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The PG rotation is Dotson/Moore (or Moore/Dotson if you prefer) followed by Grimes and Garrett (probably in that order).
The wing rotation is Grimes, Vick, KJ, Garrett, Agbaji, mixed and matched to your preference.
The big rotation is Dedric, Doke, KJ, De Sousa, Big Dave, Mitch, also mixed and matched to your preference.
Agbaji is probably the odd man out on the perimeter. Mitch is probably odd man out inside.
That gives us a rotation of Moore, Dotson, Grimes, Vick, Garrett, KJ, Dedric, Doke, De Sousa, with Big Dave getting spot minutes inside, and either Garrett or one of the PGs getting short minutes on the perimeter.
