Hosmer to Padres?
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USA Today is reporting that Royals have offered a 7 year $147M deal to Hosmer. That’s much more than what I had expected. Personally, I hope he takes it.
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@AsadZ I bet @Crimsonorblue22 would prefer talking about your info instead of mine!
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Pretty much all over the news now, 7 years, #147M or $1M more per year than the Padres offer.
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I think I would rather have Moose and Cain back instead of 1 Hosmer. Especially because it doesn’t look like either of those two guys will fetch the $50M contract it will take to get a 1st round pick.
The question is, what is best for the future of the Franchise? And there are a lot of factors at play here. Honestly, Hosmer staying could actually be a longer term benefit simply because the Royals staying relevant through 2020 is EXTREMELY important. That is when they will be getting a new TV deal. And if KC keeps up the ratings it has been putting up, that TV deal is going to be monstrous. That alone could make it worth signing Hosmer. However, if we sign him and still run our an 90+ loss team, and ratings fall, it could be a complete disaster for the Franchise that sets us back 4 or 5 more seasons than if we let him walk and had just a monster draft this season.
Best solution, Hosmer to the Royals with an opt out after 3 seasons. Get KC to 2020 and keep TV ratings up. Then give him a chance to Opt out if we suck or he can go fetch more money.
I still come back to the thought that a Moose and Cain for the same price as 1 Hosmer might be the better deal here. Really depends on how Cuthbert, Gordon and Cain’s replacement plays. But I always felt that you could slide Moose to 1B and then DH when his mobility started to be an issue.
No matter what, I’m just happy Dayton and Glass have put us in a Win-Win position no matter how all of this shakes out.
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@Kcmatt7 I see what you are saying, the positives with Hosmer are that he is still young and he is an excellent player in the clubhouse. He is a perfect player to groom some of the younger guys we should be seeing through the next rebuild. He also has excellent chemistry with Salvy.
I agree that it’s great for Glass to make such an offer for Hos, most lucrative in Royals history.
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@AsadZ nobody has better chemistry with Salvy than Cain.
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I have a Cain T-shirt too
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Royals traded Soria and Alexander for couple of prospects from Dodgers - Alexander to Dodgers and Soria to White Sox. I like Soria trade but I wish we had kept Alexander. But this is a harsh reality of a re-building process.
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@AsadZ Royals are in a strange spot if Hosmer resigns. If he does, we are probably only a couple of pieces away from a Wildcard bid. Providing Soler and Gordon can actually hit the ball next season.
Potential Lineup:
- Whit - 2B
- ? - CF
- Hosmer - 1B
- Soler - RF
- Salvy - C
- Moss - DH
- Gordon - LF
- Mondesi - SS
- Cuthbert - 3B
A lot of questions about what to do with CF. But IMO, that team could potentially swing the bat well enough to make a run. If 3 of Moss, Mondesi, Gordon or Soler can swing the bat like they are capable of, look out. That would give us a legitimate 7 bats in the lineup. The only problem is that this team would still be incredibly slow.
I would like us to look for a shortstop or 2B who we can move to 3B, like Eduardo Nunez or Brandon Phillips. That would give us some extra speed to mix in the lineup around all of these slow power guys.
That and we need to find a speedy CF. Preferably a leadoff guy. Ben Revere would be a great fit.
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@Kcmatt7 Don’t forget Bonifacio … I think he’s a lock to start somewhere. He seemed to prove he can play last season. Also, I have always wondered why they did not explore signing Moose and moving him to first base. Perhaps Moose wouldn’t want to move, which is a possibility. But for the cost, I’d rather have Moose, assuming we could get him in the range that has been discussed for him.
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@HighEliteMajor The problem with Moose is the injuries. Hos plays everyday.
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@Barney He had the freak ACL deal. And yes, he gets a bit more nicked up. The other problem with Moose is he’s not a workout warrior, meaning he’s pretty soft, not in high-end “shape.” I’d certainly rather have Hosmer at first.
However, money is a big, big issue. The value for the buck seems to me to favor Moose considerably. Basically half the price for perhaps 80-85% of the player.
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@HighEliteMajor Agreed on all points. I just don’t know if the front office likes Bonifacio. However, he is a 24 year old who did seem to earn a spot. Most likely as the 4th outfielder though, IMO. If this team starts to struggle, I’d play him in LF and just release Gordon.
Soler needs to see pitching at the MLB level every day though. Even if he struggles, we have to turn him into a player. Otherwise, last season looks really bad when we could have had Wade closing out games and barely missed the playoffs.
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@HighEliteMajor Moose should be resigned if Hosmer isn’t. Makes perfect sense to move him to 1B next season. A guy who can hit 30+ HRs out at Kauffman is a guy you need to have on this roster. It would also allow you to play Moss at 1B, Bonifacio in RF and Soler at DH.
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@HighEliteMajor I agree, I really don’t think they can afford either without setting back the rebuild a few years.
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@Kcmatt7 Moose is only 6 feet tall. That would make him among the shortest 1st basemen in the league, at least 2 to 3 inches shorter than average. They like 'em long both for stretchiing to catch throws and for range to cover the line and the hole. I would far rather have Hosmer.
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@mayjay Perhaps the greatest first baseman of all time, Rafael Palmeiro, was listed as 6’ tall. He wasn’t that tall. I stood next to him. His arguable competitor for that throne, Lou Gehrig, was also 6’ tall (different era). And of course, another Royal, who made that exact same move, and played an excellent first base, was George Brett. 6’ foot tall as well.
Further, players that have played third at the major league level are generally better infielders than first basemen. First basemen get moved there for a reason. Many times it’s range. I’d bet on Moose have more angle range and having a better “ground ball” glove. Hosmer is a very good fielder (this last year some said he wasn’t to his prior level), but he is also very good digging the ball out. That latter area is area that is important, but others have made the move. I also thing the lateral diving would favor Hosmer. No doubt a 6’3" first baseman is preferable, and Hosmer is a stud.
Price is the issue vs. value.
But height is no limitation. The AL MVP is of course not optimal for shortstops at 5’6".
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@mayjay having a good defensive 1st baseman is one of the most overrated things in baseball. Why? There are only 25% left handers in the game. Many of whom are not pull hitters. There is rarely a situation where the 1st baseman has to turn 2. A 1B’s range is limited anytime someone is on 1B anyways. Throws are rarely arrant by 6 feet to the left or right. They are rarely arrant the extra height that would be the difference between hosmer and moose.
I want Hosmer more than Moose too. But if we don’t sign Hosmer, it only makes sense to sign Moose to fill that gap.
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@Kcmatt7 25% and “rare dbl plays” add up to hundreds of LH batters and numerous dbl plays over the course of a season. A LH 1st baseman can also field a bunt better and throw better to 2nd or 3rd in a sacrifice bunt attempt. And many a game has been decided by a ball thrown just beyond the 1st baseman’ glove. Taller is generally better, but that isn’t me: it is the universal position taken by scouts and college recruiters, and is why MLB 1st basemen are on avg the 2nd tallest players in baseball behind pitchers.
That does not mean there aren’t exceptions, but I see little evidence that Moose has demonstrated these skills. I like him at third, and would keep both our corners!
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LF - Soler CF - Alex RF - Bonifacio
Orlando as alternate.
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@mayjay And assuming that Moose giving up 3 inches has a major effect is a joke. It may effect a game once or twice the entire season. And if it does, it may not even cost us that game.
Teams put ogres at 1st because they don’t have to move. Billy Butler, Albert Pujols in his old age, David Ortiz, mark mcgwire, Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Bour, etc. etc.
Do you think those guys play 1st because they are tall? Or because they can hit. None of those guys could play another position on the field the last 10 years of their careers, if ever. Size had nothing to do with it. Simply the fact that they could hit the ball really far.
Best defensive first baseman of all-time, Keith Hernandez was only 6’.
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@Kcmatt7 Obviously, you can’t think Moose is likely to be as adept at 1st as KH, who played nothing but 1st base from HS on, despite Moose changing mid-career to an untried position. But you also say it won’t matter if he can’t reach some batted balls or throws, because it won’t cost the Royals that many games, just a few?
I doubt the Royals are as willing to give up any games as you might be. But if they are, we should probably agree they will do it by ridding themselves of both Moose and Hosmer and saving themselves millions. If a few games don’t mean much, they will just go with a rookie or someone they trade for willing to play for the veterans’ minimum.
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@mayjay I do think Moose could play first base at a gold glove level.
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@Kcmatt7 It is possible, but the best benefit might be the reduction in balls hit by RH batters that he dives like a madman for at 3B. In the best George Brett tradition, but the injuries start coming more rapidly in the upper 20’s.
He can still play like a madman at first, but having to hold runners and stay near the bag for throws might rein him in.
I still want both.
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@mayjay Let’s assume you can’t have both. You would agree that from a cost benefit analysis, at first base, if you could have Moose for say 4 years, $70 million vs. Hosmer at 7 years, $140+ that has been discussed, Moose is a better choice (assuming he’d move to first and say play at a middle of the pack level of competence at first)?
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@HighEliteMajor I understand the argument, but the assumption both of his contract and level of play may be a stretch. Who takes 3rd?
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I would trade Gordon and keep Hosmer and Moustakas.
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@mayjay Cuthbert or Dozier. Which contract do you think is a stretch? Of course, we could just keep Moose at third. I’d love to re-sign him.
@JayHawkFanToo Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s marketable at all. We would have to pick up most of his yearly salary. I could see a team taking him and pay $2 million per year of the salary with upward contingencies, but the guy was horrible. Would you trade for him and want to pay him anything?
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@JayHawkFanToo Who would trade for Gordon and his contract??
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@mayjay What makes you think he would be a poor defensive 1B? I just don’t understand where you are coming from with that. If it is his height, and height alone, I find that to be a weak argument. 1st base is the easiest infield position to play, no question about it. So if he can defend 3rd at a professional level, I would think he could defend 1st with no issues.
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I know that; it was just wishful thinking. I did not think KC should have given Gordon that type of contract at all; I would have preferred they tried to keep Zobrist instead.
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@JayHawkFanToo What’s interesting, look at Zobrist’s stats … Merrifield I think was better. I definitely wanted to sign Zobrist instead. Moore got sentimental.
@Kcmatt7 Definitely agree with you. Good third basemen translate great to first. History of the game tells us that.
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@Kcmatt7 Besides the height, which puts him at a disadvantage even if you disagree, my skepticism comes from something you keep ignoring: he has never played it in even one game (Baseball Reference) so there is no evidence on which to assume he would be average or better. Brett had played in over 20 games at 1st while rehabbing from the age of 26 to 30, and even when he did move to 1st regularly at 34 he often played DH instead. But there was at least a history on which to judge. Oh, and he was ambidextrous (he even threw batting practice left handed sometimes), which might not be relevant but it is very cool).
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@mayjay So many players have moved from positions to play first base, especially as they aged. Pujos, Cabrera, Carpenter, Sweeney, Piazza, Garciaparra, Hanley Ramirez, Konerko and Mauer are guys that I can think of just off the top of my head.
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@Kcmatt7 I decided to test our theories with your examples. A couple of six footers (including Brett), but most were taller. Some had prior experience or moved earlier (a couple later). Mauer is probably most similar to Moose’s stage of career, but he is 6’5". Some were 1B entire career, or nearly.
Pujols, 6’3" 42 games age 21, 21 games age 22, 62 games age 23, 150 age 24 (moved full time)
Cabrera, 6’4" Moved to 1st base age 25, never played it before
Carpenter, 6’3" Started at first at age 26 in his second MLB season (played 3 games at 1B in minors), was moved next season to third, played 3B & 2B mostly for next 2 years, several at 1B, then has moved in the past 2 years to 1st and a bunch at 2B. Total of 214 games at 1B out of >870 in MLB (201 at 2B, 452 at 3B)
Sweeney, 6’1" Age 21-25 catcher, moved to first and DH exclusively for next 11 years, almost exactly league average fielding %age for career (Sweeney .990, league avg in his years, .993)
Piazza, 6’3" 1 game at 1B age 24, 1 game age 34, 68 games age 35 (70 games total) Split remaining 3 years of career between C and DH
Garciaparra, 6’ Almost exclusively a SS until 31, then moved to 3B, to 1B at 32, played 210 games at 1B over 4 seasons until retired. Had high career fielding %age at 1B (.998)
Hanley Ramirez, 6’2" 151 games at 1B in last 2 seasons (133 at age 31, 18 at age 32), never before. High fielding %age (.997). Played SS mostly in career.
Konerko, 6’2" 18 year career, started at age 21 splitting at 3B and 1B, last 14 years mostly at 1B. Total of 1904 games at 1B, 345 at DH, 29 at 3B, 1 in outfield,
Mauer, 6’5" started move to 1B at age 28
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@mayjay What you don’t know is if Moose played 1st while in high school and in the extensive time spent in club baseball. In fact, it’s highly likely that he did play other positions. 1st is logical for a guy like Moose. I don’t know though. Some guys get extra time in the OF, like Hosmer did (if you recall that discussion about Hosmer being able to play OF when Butler was still here). In club ball, you will have two guys that can play one spot, so even the best guys might only play their positions 3 out of 4 games. You could play 5-6 games over a 3 day period.
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@HighEliteMajor All the articles about him in high school have him playing SS mostly, but also some at 3B, 2B, and C. He was only 5’11 until his senior year. He played OF in the 2006 Junior World Championships and robbed Cuba of a HR in a great leap at the wall. He was drafted as a SS.
That history is obviously one that shows, along with his 3B play with the Royals, that he is a fine athlete who has played a few positions. I have no doubt he could adapt to 1B. But my point is his history does not support any prediction of how well he would do.
There are a lot of players lower than average who have played it since their careers started, and for anyone to assume he could surpass them is a big logical leap. For the Royals to assume he could fluidly transition, and rest their biggest roster decision of this offseason on that assumption, would be a huge gamble.
One other thing: If he could do it, why was Moose never tried at 1B in a game throughout his MLB career? The lack of evidence of something might not amount to any firm evidence, but it might at least be a hint.
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@mayjay The fact that he played SS gives us an indication that he was a superior fielder. But not a MLB level SS. But of course, the best players on club teams/HS play SS anyway.
My evidence is circumstantial only, based on his level of fielding and others that have moved there. I would not be concerned that the Royals never played him at 1st. That’s relative to the team and the best lineup on a particular day. Meaning, the best lineup would always have Moose at the 3rd.
We can agree that you have no evidence, other than your circumstantial evidence, to suggest it would be a bad move. I grant you that it might turn out that way. I assume you can grant me the possibility that it could work out.
But, alas, my only reason for suggesting it is if we were to have to lose Hosmer. Bringing Moose in would be better than Moss. But I do think they could play Hunter Dozier there. I think they’d played him some there in the minors. He was hurt last season.
I love Moose’s game, and wish we could keep him.
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Can we just say that 3rd base is the optimal position for Moose and, based on his athleticism and natural ability, he could play other positions effectively including 1st base?
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@HighEliteMajor I just realized I never answered your earlier question about my comment about contracts. I only meant it might not be correct that we could sign Moose at the amount you suggested. I think it will require more, so the savings compared to Hosmer would not be as dramatically lower as in your hypothetical. But it seems teams are waiting longer to sign FAs, so my comment may have been premature. The signings occurring in MLB this week to avoid arbitration have been interesting.
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@JayHawkFanToo I can agree to that.
@mayjay I saw some projections on Moose getting near $100. I kind of look at it from a % standpoint – stats vs. money. Market is not optimal for these guys.
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Crap…Any word what the Royals are doing to find a fair replacement?
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@truehawk93 No signing of Hos or Moose yet.
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There is now…Hos is gone.
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Hosmer is/was my favorite Royal’s player.
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@JayHawkFanToo My interest in the Royals just fell to an alarmingly low level after my ardent support from 1975-1994, 2013-2017. I doubt I will go to one game this year. A truly sad day.
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Padres overpaid. I’m glad the Royals didn’t invest $21 mil per year in a slightly above average first baseman. KC loved Hos, but he apparently didn’t return said love as contract talks never seemed to come close.
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@Fightsongwriter I’ll be back to kind of checking on the box scores and stuff.
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It’s to painful for me now!
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Sometimes you pay not just for the field performance but for the off-the field intangibles. Hosmer was well liked by the fans and had a great image that is hard to quantify but makes people like me, who are not really big baseball fans, follow the Royals. Really sorry to see him leave.
