Bill Self sucked last night.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 KU took like 33 shots in the paint. Going 5-25 from 3 is biggest reason why KU lost.
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@Eric-san You’re right, that 20% from 3 is why KU lost. Why was KU taking 25 3’s in the first place that were mostly contested when their shot clearly was working last night. And no, KU did not take 33 FG attempts from the paint. KU took 35 2 pointers last night and quite a few of those were mid range jumpers which are worst shot in all of basketball. KU did not make the adjustment to their 3 pointers not falling and that falls squarely on Bill Self not making that adjustment.
When you have multiple players (Mason, Graham, and Lucas) saying they couldn’t figure out the defense, that’s 100% on Self because it’s not difficult to gameplan to beat a zone defense. KU saw multiple zones this year and played pretty well against those so why was Oregon’s any different?
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@Texas-Hawk-10 who plays matchup zone in the big 12 that would have gotten KU prepped for it? I think the problem with the 3s were that a lot of them were early in the shotclock and/or out of rhythm. Why shoot 25? Because that was KUs identity this year. But you’re right, it is on Self to have the team as best prepared as can be. I’m sure if Oregon was our S16 matchup and Self had a week to prepare, KU would come out on top.
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@Eric-san The basic principles for beating a zone don’t change regardless of what type of zone it is. Get the ball into the high post area to force defenders off the baseline and open up driving lines and back cuts for easy weakside layups. Bill Self said after the game that KU took way too many “marginal” shots which means KU’s offense played like crap last night and Self made no obvious adjustments. The one stretch of success KU had when they cut the lead to 6 was what KU should’ve been doing for the final 30 minutes of the game after it was obvious the 3 ball was going to work last night. Josh planted himself in the high post, Bell had to come up to help and KU was able to successfully attack the rim and get to the FT line (Jackson picked 5 assists during that stretch). What KU did instead was start launching 3’s again after that failed rebound opportunity when the game was 6 and KU never went back to attacking the zone. It really is on the head coach when something has some success and you quit doing that in favor of something else that had already proven to not work in that game.
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@Bosthawk I didn’t research, but probably in their last Elite Eight
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I don’t think bragg would’ve saved us. i think we needed to make adjustments that weren’t made, but I still think Bill will grow from this, and like everything else he does, he will conquer it. I still think we need a clipboard asst. that hammers them to play defense, an x and o guy that gets them to play the sort of defense that wins championships.
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@KUSTEVE Bragg doesn’t help on defense, but he’s been a good passer all year and putting him in the middle of that zone and letting him pass probably would’ve opened up some of the lanes we saw open up when Jackson did that in the second half.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Do you honestly believe that Self doesn’t know the basic principles of beating a zone? Why would teams even bother playing zone if it is so easy to beat? Why did KU take so many “marginal” shots? Could it be because Oregon played great defense, and kept KU out of rhythm? Can’t we just tip our hats and say they were the better team that day and call it a day?
I think the fact that KU got the lead down to 6 says they did make some adjustments. What are you gonna do when JJ misses 2 FTs, or DG airballs a bunny shot? That’s 4 points there. If JJ doesn’t tip the rebound to Oregon, and KU goes down and hits a 3, then the Brooks 3 after that tipped rebound never happens, 6 point swing right there and its only a 1 possession game with plenty of time left. How often do we get to see a perfect game plan, or a game with zero mistakes. We all knew there would be a game were KU’s shots aren’t falling. It happens to every team during a run. A couple of breaks go KU’s way, and maybe were talking KU and Final 4.
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@Eric-san Where the hell did I say Self doesn’t know how to beat a zone? There’s a huge difference between not knowing and not doing. KU knows how to beat a zone, we saw it multiple times this season. Last night, they didn’t do what they know how to do which has become a regular occurance for a Bill Self coached team this time of year.
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I think the second half game plan was solid. Better defense, OR struggled for good looks, and time and again KU had the opportunity to hit a shot and make it close. They took 3s early in the shot clock, some of them rushed, but a number of them were good looks, the kind of shots they’ve been making all season.
Several times I thought KU had OR right where they wanted them. They’ve been comeback kids all season. But Mason got no help, except from Svi, who cut the deficit to 6. Blaming Self for Graham’s total no show and Jackson’s mental flameout after his early fouls…maybe that makes sense to some but I can’t get there.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Your whole argument has been that Self did not adjust, and he went away from what was working. You said KU kept taking contested 3s and it 3 ball was not working. KU shot 4/10 from 3 at the half. How is that obvious that the 3 was not working? That failed rebound was the game ender, so hard to fault anything KU did after that. And the deficit was 9 after that failed rebound, not 6.
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@Eric-san KU shot 1/15 from 3 in the second half? Is that working to you? Yet KU kept chucking them up. I also didn’t realize a 3 possession game with a few minutes left was the end of the game, silly me.
Bottom line, Bill Self’s teams have a really bad habit of having their worst offensive game of the year in the Elite 8. The players and employer may change, but Bill Self has been the coach for all 9 of those appearances including last night. This game is on Self and whatever the hell is wrong with him in the Elite 8 that makes his teams play like crap in this round. 2000, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2016, and 2017. That’s a trend and Self is the only constant in those years.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 While you were watching the game, when that rebound got tipped to Oregon and Brooks hits that 3, did you really feel like KU still had a shot at a comeback? You’re right a 3 possession game with 2 minutes left is far from over, but KU usually has all the momentum, or momentum swinging their way. Momentum and KU were not in the same universe last night at that moment.
1/15 in the 2nd half, but 5 of those attempted in the last 2 minutes when the game was pretty much out of reach. So 10 3 pt attempts in 18 minutes is too much for a team trying to make a double digit comeback?
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Total speculation, but I think Self’s weakness is his assistants. He may not have the right people to consistently reinforce the tone and culture. They are also responsible for preparation. This is hard to mess with because of the “family” thing… He cares deeply for each of them, but he needs to keep mixing things up. Danny and Dooley were big losses for the program.
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You did a service showing those EE scores.
Now, which is more likely?
a.) Bill Self has a mental block, puckers up and forgets how to coach players and ride referees in the Elite Eight;
Orrrrrrrrrrrr
b.) at the Elite Eight Bill Self tends to start running into Nike teams with all the pieces he has, plus the OAD/5-star 1s and 5s that won’t come to KU?
I vote for B.
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P.S.: I do think it’s time for Bill to institute switching defenses (m2m to zones an back frequently) to hinder recognition.
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@jaybate-1.0 I don’t think it’s B in this case. Oregon, no OAD’s. Villanova had no OAD’s, Nike funneling players to VCU, really? Or Davidson for that matter? UCLA was a lame duck Nike program in 2007 and didn’t have any OAD’s. Georgia Tech has never been a Nike program to my knowledge, and was in the pre OAD era.
UNC in 2012 us the only year that theory carries any merit and KU won that game.
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So: you appear to be asserting that Self is a brilliant coach at getting to the EE, becomes nonlinearly stupid for the EE, then becomes nonlinearly brilliant again beyond the EE, having won one ring and almost won a second without a McDs the second time. I’m afraid this taxes probability beyond the breaking point.
The issue is not Self winning one ring. He has done THAT, unlike all but UNC and Nova that you mention.
The issue is not always the apparently sometimes asymmetric recruiting to the programs that defeat KU.
The issue is the apparently asymmetric recruiting that for some reason consistently denies KU the OAD and/or 5 star talent at the 1 and 5 that are apparently needed to win GREATER THAN one ring the last 13 seasons.
I can’t think of a single non Nike program that has has had zero OAD/5-star 1 and 5 position players that have won more than 1 ring.
Name me one non Nike program that has won two or more rings without OAD and/or 5-star talent at the 1 and 5 and I will modify my hypothesis ASAP.
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@jaybate-1.0 I didn’t say I thought it was A, just that I don’t think it’s B because the facts don’t support that narrative.
b.) at the Elite Eight Bill Self tends to start running into Nike teams with all the pieces he has, plus the OAD/5-star 1s and 5s that won’t come to KU?
At Kansas in the E8, Self has run into Georgia Tech (non Nike program), UCLA (was Nike, but switched to Adidas the next year so why would Nike feed a lame duck program?), Davidson (Nike school, but Nike isn’t feeding Davidson), VCU (same deal as Davidson), UNC (KU won that game), Villanova (what OAD did they have?), and same with Oregon (same as Villanova).
In your modified premise, I don’t disagree with the exception of Florida’s back to back titles because that was not a OAD team. Duke, UNC, and UConn are the other multi time champs in the OAD era and I think UConn is the only one who’s done it without OAD’s.
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For everyone saying things like, “the 2-5 record speaks for itself” please consider that it is not so unlikely that it is just a statistical outlier. If we had a 50% chance of winning each game, the Self record could have occurred 21 times out of 128. Unlikely, but not impossible. That is about a 1 in 6 chance.
In perhaps more familiar terms, you would have a 1 in 4 chance to flip a coin and come up heads twice in a row, and 1 in 8 for it to be 3 times in a row. So, the statistical probability of this type of record is between that of 2 heads and 3 heads in a row.
Anyone who ever flipped coins knows you can have streaks far greater than 3 in a row without something being wrong with the coin. Same with roulette: people lose really big thinking a black or red streak of 5, 8, or even 10 in a row means something about the wheel’s characteristics.
For anyone to conclude that Bill’s record in EEs is indicative of a flaw is just simple-minded at best and willfully ignorant at worst. Just consider the fact that if we made about 7 more baskets in a total of about 3 tournaments (especially a rifldiculous number of bunnies in a couple years), the record would be reversed (remember, the final scores sometimes reflect desperation fouls at the end).
A wholesale change of coaching philosophy is not mandated by the fact that players miss some shots, or stumble, or make a couple of dumb mistakes.
Lighten up people. Bill’s record reflects more opportunities because of greater coaching ability, not lesser due to unpredictability of outcomes.
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Again the key is what KU is not getting at the 1 and 5; that is what determines its lower limits of performance on an off night.
Add the OAD/5-star olayer at 1 and 5 positions and all those EE losses by KU teams on off games would have become wins.
I just don’t see any credible dispute to this.
Cal isn’t a very good coach, but give him 6 OADS WHEN OTHERS HAVE NONE, and he can win a ring.
Large edges in talent make up for off nights even for so-so coaches like Cal, so they should do even more for Self.
I’m not arguing Self is perfect. I’m saying give him the same levels of talent as Coach K, Cal and Roy and he runs circles around them and all the EE exits that they have even with the excess talent, Self would logically turn into FFs and rings.
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@jaybate-1.0 Add OAD 5 star 1s and 5s together to any team in the tournament and they have a great chance to make a FF.
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@mayjay There are no one and dones in this years Final Four.
Not unless the freshman Collins the 7footer from Gonzaga (a role player) takes the leap.
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Absolutely. Self would just have a better chance because he’s already kicking ass with less.
Good lord, he’s won a ring, finished second, been to a bunch of EEs, won 13 straight conference titles and won a higher percentage of his games without a single flipping OAD and/or 5-star 1 or 5 (arguably the most crucial positions in D1 hoops).
Of course, he would have won waaaaaaaay more rings with equivalent talent to Coach K, Cal and Roy.
This seems like debating over the mastered obvious.
This is why the issue is 1 and 5 recruiting constraints with or without Bill Self, who won’t stay forever, regardless.
It’s a given that money-power interests prey on successful basketball programs and athletic departments and seek to destabilize and overthrow them, to capture the money and influence to be had. All the top programs go through it. It has appeared for several years Self and KUAD have been targeted for regime change.
We can’t stop the intriguing.
Self’s reputed $10M per year, and KUADs revenues, and the back door influence of KUAD on KU, the regents and state political economy, are too great of temptations not to expect predation.
But we can stay focused on the recruiting constraints that will limit whichever coach and regime are in control. .
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@FarNrthJHwk said:
@mayjay There are no one and dones in this years Final Four.
Not unless the freshman Collins the 7footer from Gonzaga (a role player) takes the leap.
Interesting point, well taken. Maybe you can answer this if you follow prospective OADs: how many teams who were in the tourney have the combo I mentioned, i.e., presumptive OADs at both the 1 and 5?
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@mayjay Kentucky with Fox and Bambam and possibly UCLA with that on guys son (refuse to say that name, a disgrace to the game) and Leaf. I I know they call Leaf a stretch 4 but he’s a tall kid. Won’t play in the post in the league much. Duke with Bolden and stretching to Jackson at guard.
Those are the ones off the top of my head. Don’t think Zona had any, nor Louisiville.
