Time For Self To Kill C5
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@justanotherfan But what if you’ve guessed wrong that Bragg and Diallo will show big improvement by March. Sure we can all see they have talent, but we have no idea when that talent will blossom into production. The reason the per possession numbers look the way they do is way more than just small sample size. It’s highly selected sample size. Not by the person doing the math, by Self. He has purposefully put the freshman in when he knows (or at least strongly thinks) they can be successful. When things get tough and against tougher competition, the older more experienced guys go in. Hence, lower numbers. Mentality is the thing statistics always leave out. Momentum building plays, the ability to shake off a mistake and not let it turn into two, making a mistake then making up for it, these are all things that numbers just can’t show. To me, the per possession numbers prove Self has been exceptional at not “guessing wrong.” Let your experienced players struggle, build the confidence of the younger players. This has always been his style. And I like it. Not just because it wins, but because it makes sense to me.
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This is why Diallo and Bragg should have been playing a month ago. You don’t want your first exposure to constant ball screen actions being against a team like Kentucky with an NBA caliber guard like Murray. You want to work out the kinks against lesser teams so that when Kentucky runs that action over and over (and Calipari almost certainly will) your guys are ready to handle it.
You are making the Morningstar argument here. Play him because he is less likely to make mistakes. Look at how much Selby and Johnson make mistakes. They will hurt us if they play more. Oops, VCU isn’t guarding Morningstar at all (same thing OU did with Lucas… hmm) and Morningstar can’t make shots. Oh no, the twins are getting double and triple teamed. Turnovers are mounting. We are falling further behind. Get Brady out of the game! Nope, 32 minutes in the loss. Season over. National championship level talent wasted.
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I think we beat Kentucky by playing experienced basketball. We can’t freak out if they get a small run, and we need to take advantage of our runs and push even harder, trying to freak out a young team on the road.
If we limit Ulis and Murray, I don’t see how we get beat. Neither of these guys are the weapon Hield is.
Otherwise, we just have to play smart basketball. Limit TOs and get our fair share of rebounds. I think we can match up well with UK on the boards.
The “x-factor” is pace. We need to do a better job of playing at a pace that improves our efficiency. We will get a huge taste of that tonight against WV. If we can find our sweet spot, WV doesn’t stand a chance. If we don’t find it… we can easily leave Morgantown with a loss… AGAIN!
Between now and March, I believe our main focus should be on guard play… and mostly to control pace. This also happens with bigs, to get out in transition and look for quick outlet passes.
I value this focus much more than I do dropping everything on this team to focus on getting Cheick ready for March. If he comes along, great. If he doesn’t… we can have our best team since 2008
I advise everyone look for archives of that 2014 championship game. And how UCONN controlled most of the game pace. It is a weapon few ever talk about. It is having a “6th man” on the court at all times. 6 playing 5, an advantage making it hard to lose.
A big part of OUs success relates to them controlling pace. They do a pretty good job of staying at a pace that keeps their efficiency up. When they are off their pace, they suddenly become a very mediocre team.
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@HighEliteMajor" Can you cite me one NCAA tourney winner that has done it this way? I couldn’t find one. I guess our 5 guys are so bad we can’t play them any significant minutes. Who does that reflect on?"
Cole Aldrich.
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@drgnslayr how quickly some forget about about one of the best if not the best x axis team in recent memory. Great guard play is what we need this year.
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What is really amazing is that we do have the best guard tandem in the country! If we don’t take advantage of that potential we deserve to lose in March.
I’m all for Cheick and he is going to be a great one. But right now his offer is “foul’s gold.”
I don’t think people realize what a shift it is to have our team now focus on Cheick. He has to suddenly run with our starting team in practice. That alone should kill this notion of just flipping the switch to Cheick. He will kill our team offense development because he has no experience with Self ball and doesn’t even have experience in the game of basketball. He is pure green wood. Our entire offense will develop in slow motion as the coaches will have to focus on Cheick in team practices. This is where we blow it… big time. Then, suddenly, we see our early season advantage of all that extra polish (thanks partially to WUG) vanish as other teams pass us by. We’ve been there before.
We have a very good team now. A team that could be great in March if we spend our time, energy and focus in the right areas… where we have the most potential. We have more potential developing as a team… not stopping team development to help one player with potential to develop into something.
This is exactly like the issue in education today. Do we lower the bar for everyone and push all students into slow development so the lower students can hopefully improve at the slower pace? Or do we educate at a higher level for all students, and give special assistance to the lower students to help improve them?
Lower the bar for the low, or raise the bar for everyone else?
This is where we are at. Not what you see on the court. We still have to improve considerably to be a contender in March.
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@justanotherfan The same thing could have been said about Russell Robinson playing over Sherron but no one does because we won. Collins was the better offensive player by far and was a decent enough defender to win out overall. But Robinson did things that made other players on that team play better. I think Traylor specifically is a very good comparison for Robinson. I know they play different positions but their role is really quite similar. Play D, move the ball, impact in transition when you can.
I agree with @drgnslayr that the focus needs to be on our guards. We all talk about the NBA potential of Selden and the freshman (including Svi because that’s what he really is this year) but isn’t Graham NBA potential? He’s a 6’2" point guard who is developing a shot, lightning quick, and can pressure the ball on D even against bigger players. Is it because he is skinny? Or has a youthful exuberance that doesn’t fit the business mentality of the league? Frank, I get, he is really 5’10" and just not tall enough with the game he plays to really be highly thought of for the draft. But what gives on DG?
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What we should be paying attention to now, on the court during games, isn’t so much about PT of our post guys.
What we should be paying attention to is looking for additional development in our play, on both sides of the ball.
Our starting group has plenty of experience in D1 and Self ball. That means team practices should be more fruitful than when the starting group is sprinkled with green wood. We should see new things installed and running throughout the season. That would mean we are improving and our upcoming opponents will struggle to properly scout us because we constantly bring new wrinkles to the game, especially in our offense.
That is the way to reach our PEAK at the right time… March!
College basketball has changed so much over the past 20 years. Scouting was pretty much a joke back then. It was hard for schools to properly scout other teams. Now… because of technology and networks, and schools investing quite a bit in their A/V departments, scouting has come on big time. This is part of the issue on why college basketball scores have dropped. Teams are better prepared going into games.
If we continue to develop wrinkles in our offense all year, we keep our opponents guessing to some degree. They can’t really prepare for us as well and it will show in the results.
This is easily the #1 problem for Kansas in March in recent years. We bring a team of puppies into March, and they not only freak out, but have such limited team development that our opposition easily has us properly scouted and they are able to compete with us like apples-to-apples even though we are a 1 or 2 seed and they are a 8 or 9 seed.
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Let’s back up a minute and compare the two out of HS.
Russell Robinson was the #27 overall recruit (#7 PG).
Jamari Traylor was the #141 overall recruit (#27 PF).
Russell Robinson was a decidedly better HS player than Jamari Traylor.
Yes, Sherron was better than RussRob, but Sherron was a McD’s AA and a potential NBA player. RussRob was a step below that. Jamari is about two steps below that level. There’s a pretty healthy gap between RussRob and Jamari in overall talent, even considering the difference in positions.
RussRob was a very solid starting level player at KU. Traylor is, at best, a backup. Also, note that Self played Sherron almost as much as RussRob. As a freshman, Sherron played 22 minutes a game to Russell’s 28. As a sophomore, Sherron played 24 minutes a game to Russell’s 27. They were both good players and both netted starter level minutes.
We have a completely different situation here.
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Link to Jesse’s article on “Who has been the best complement to Perry? You Decide”
LOTS of charts!!
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10 Freshmen have started at KU since the Ring ceremonies began. Not all of them have been Big Men. All had learning curves higher than the last two Big names that have come to KU, Alexander and Diallo. Self will play and start Freshmen that have an understanding of what is needed to play for Bill Self. I’ll take that stubbornness every day from Coach. KU has the reputation as “Big Man U.” Why isn’t your ideal coach at Kentucky playing his highly ranked Big man? There is a Vitriolic attitude that stirs the pot of the Bucket boys and girls, when one states that his position is “Unassailable,” and the continuing use of the word “Stupid” when referring to a decision that Coach has made.
Two years ago it was the blindness of not playing Greene. Last year the blindness of not playing Alexander. I really do fear the attacks next year when Perry and Wayne are gone. I feel that someone writes their certain arguments and then giggles when the expected response’s come.
My own response…
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@wrwlumpy a friend of mine went to a Self leadership talk. Self was asked if we are still known for being big Man U and he said we still do the same “stuff” we did when coach manning was here.
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@justanotherfan Jamari has been a starter on a team that one the big 12 and got a high seed in the tournament. Bragg and Diallo are getting similar minute/gm numbers to the rest of the post players not named Ellis. So I guess we could call that “starter” level. So it is not completely different. As I said it is not an exact comparison because they are different positions and different players but their ROLE is similar. They bring experience and energy to their team NOT SCORING. Russ Rob shot 30% from three allowing defenders to sag off of him. He got most of his points driving and in transition (mostly brought on by steals by Chalmers).
I am just trying to give Traylor some credit here. He and the rest of C5 just aren’t going to be stars on this team. Yet he continues to play his heart out and make big plays and some say BENCH HIM! He has his flaws as they all do, but he CAN impact plays and games in a positive way. They all can. Therefore, give them all an opportunity to do it!
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@benshawks08 I would add that Russ Rob caused many of the turnovers Chalmers got by his tight defense on the passer. Which allowed Mario’s terrific instincts and long arms to take over for the steal. They were a great tandem on the defensive end. Pressure on the passer is something that has been missing until this year with Frank & Devonte.
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@HighEliteMajor very strong posts and I can’t say I outright disagree about trimming the post rotation. However, I’m not as convinced as you that keeping C5 hurts the chances of winning the championship. To state the obvious, this team is so much more than the 5 spot. Does it limit the highest possible ceiling? Probably, but not by much. We’re talking 2 months out, and betting on freshmen. One of whom has a fouling problem (keeping the rotation fresh because of foul potential is another discussion, but one worth having). If this were a multi-season plan than absolutely go with the freshmen, but it’s a much shorter timeline than that. And hedging risks with C5 also significantly raises the floor. That could save our butts in March. And despite having a rotating 5 spot, the team has functioned (for the most part) like a well-oiled machine. You have to look at the competition: if we keep playing C5 what team do you suggest has a higher ceiling that takes the ring instead? Plenty of teams have recently won the ring with a solid (like C5) but not awesome center playing major minutes. As you’ve stated, we have the best collection of backcourt talent in the nation. One of the best power forwards in the nation. Sometimes when you’re day-trading, the hot hand is the way to go. And with a group this seasoned, I think chemistry and other factors are less of an issue than you might think. The rest of the team has appeared to adjust for rotating centers just fine. Just my opinion on this, but currently I’m OK with C5. I’ll keep re-evaluating throughout conference play.
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@benshawks08 Mari knows his role, the rest of the team have spoken highly of him too
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@barney Definitely AGREE on that!
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@Crimsonorblue22 IMO, As far as the vets, I think you will continue to see Mari when the opposing bigs do a lot of screening causing switches. He can cover small players much better than the other 4. LL is the choice when strength is needed. Hunter more against running teams. I think you will see the frosh play more & more in games where they are not a negative with turnovers and blown assignments. Close games not so much.
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Am I reading those charts right? Cheick and Perry have only had 34 possessions together? That isn’t enough possessions to determine anything. A couple of shots made or missed completely changes the results.
Oh yes… even on this article it says:
“Haley note: Ellis and Diallo haven’t played together enough yet for the numbers to mean anything.”
So we can’t really support Cheick’s stats yet.
But I do think he needs to pick up a few more minutes so he can be properly evaluated. Just not sure I would want it to be in crunch time yet.
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@drgnslayr definitely not when the game is on the line.
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Very true.
But we will have some games, especially at home, where Cheick should see more minutes. This is the time to scream “fire” for Cheick, not now. Not hours before we go through the grind at WV…
I read on another site… a poster saying how important it was to start Cheick in the WV game. I considered that person a troll… hoping Kansas was dumb enough to do it. They would rob Cheick so blind, he might not even have his jockstrap left on him after a couple of minutes of facing high-pressure steals from the master thieves at WV.
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@justanotherfan I keep thinking Morningstar in all this like you. The Peter Principle.
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@HighEliteMajor You make great points, a very solid post and logic about why KU should tighten its rotation up. Im not refuting any of your points or your logics at all. I just have one question that I dont believe you addressed in your post. That is, Who should be left out of the C5 rotation?
If Coach Self picks Lucas to sit, we are too light down low. If Self picks 'Mari to sit, we are down on the intangibles he brings, and defense. If Self picks Mick, we are down on added outside shooting, pick n roll defense and shot blocking length. There is no right answer here and any choice but keeping C5 together unto the breach could have just as much negative impact as positive.
I mean, unless Bragg and Diallo gain 20lbs each and make a huge jump in progress, which isnt going to happen this season, we have to keep going with what is working. C5 is giving us a nightly double double in production. Cant refute that. C5 is causing opposing coaches to have to game plan for 5 guys at one spot instead of one.
I have zero in game experience and zero coaching experience but I would think that it would be harder to game plan for 5 different guys. Am I right? Ok technically thats two questions now…C5 is not Joel Embiid but they are getting the job done. KU is the best team in the country right now. Barring unforeseen circumstances, they will be the best team in March too. C5 does have the added advantage of giving our bigs a break, less risk for injury and all that.
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@Lulufulu I’m on the same page as you. By playing all of them, we have a mental and physical advantage. Especially because Bill can gameplan for it. Because we are so deep, Bill can wait until a certain matchup happens and exploit it. Other teams have to rest big guys and we can pounce on that. The moment another team puts in a backup big that weighs a buck twenty five like Bragg or Diallo, boom they’re in. The second a 7’6 giant is in, Landen is at the scorers table ready to move him out of the paint. How about at 6’9 mismatch guy? We just unhitch the Traylor. What can you throw at us that we cannot handle? I don’t think of this as inhibiting our players. I actually think of it more as putting them in a position to succeed. We don’t ask any of these guys to do something they aren’t capable of. And so you’ve noticed LL and JT and HM make some truly great plays this year, and negate many of the bad ones we had grown accustomed to the past two seasons.
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@KUSTEVE I am reminded of how T Taylor was thrown under the bus for three 1/2 years until the light finally lit for him & he was one of the best we have ever had for his final three months. Who is to say that we won’t see the light finally light for our C5 or some of them…Geez…give them a break!
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@Bill-Self Not sure why you chose to ask that I “give them a break”. I certainly “give them a break” a lot more than most on here. Perhaps you missed my first post:
"He looks for reasons to play Jamari and LL, and he looks for reasons to not play Hunter, Diallo, and Bragg. I definitely think Jamari is up there in the team hierarchy as a 5th year senior. He is probably used by Self as an example to the younger players of hard work and defense translating to minutes. If he didn’t play Jamari, all those speeches he made recognizing Jamari for everything he has overcome to the young guys would look a little silly. Self hates being beat on the boards, and he puts in LL when he thinks he needs size. He doesn’t need Hunter’s scoring ability, and he considers LL a better rebounder. He doesn’t play Diallo and Bragg because they aren’t part of the team hierarchy - thy’re still outsiders…rookies that have to prove themselves…AND we’re in the hunt for a national title, and he simply won’t take losses to develop these guys.
I’m like dragonslayer on this - it’s hard for me to question the results …number 1 in the nation should give you lots of leeway to run the team as you see fit. That doesn’t mean HEM is wrong- the numbers are pretty clear. But teams aren’t always about numbers. There are pecking orders formed on every team, and I think Jamari and LL are higher on the team pecking order than their numbers show. Just my opinion- I have no empirical proof, so please take it as such."
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@KUSTEVE I think a few fans would rather be right and lose, than admit they are wrong but we still win.
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@Crimsonorblue22 I’m not anti-anybody. I love all our players. I thought the last few games, I’ve seen some real good play from LL and Jamari. I don’t expect Diallo to be anointed with their minutes right away. At the same time, I want to see Bragg and Diallo get more time on the floor. Like, when we’re up by 20. I’d love to see Vick get in there as well.
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@KUSTEVE I didn’t mean to direct a negative remark at you personally as we generally agree on our opinions. Your post just happened to be at the end of some negative posts & I just lost it…SORRY if I offended you.
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@KUSTEVE I didn’t mean you!
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@Bill-Self Negative posts or critical posts? There were people complaining about LL and Jamari playing within minutes of our OT win over OU. Now, that set me off. There are several posters who will be critical, sometimes quite critical, but I think it’s more like parents loving their kids. Does Dad love them less because he lays down the law, and is critical of their behavior? I think the guys that critique our team love KU as much as those who don’t ever have a problem or issue with our coach or our team. Just my opinion.
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Personal fouls per 40 minutes among all 6 bigs:
Cheick Diallo: 9.0
Hunter Mickelson: 7.8
Jamari Traylor: 6.5
Landen Lucas: 5.5
Carlton Bragg: 4.8
Perry Ellis: 2.1
Only Ellis plays defense in a way that he can play extended mintues. The other 5 foul way to frequently to be left on the floor for extended minutes. If the rotation is shortened and guys get in foul trouble which seems probable given their foul rates, Self would have to extend the rotation at that spot because of foul trouble anyway.
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@KUSTEVE I never loved my kids that way!
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@Crimsonorblue22 I knew that.
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@KUSTEVE Negative posts. Critical posts in here are usually constructive & that is a positive thing.
