Which Big 12 Teams Benefit Most From The 30-Second Shot Clock?
-
Which Big 12 teams benefit most from the 30-second shot clock?
It might make more sense to ask which teams will struggle most with the quicker pace.
Just thinking out loud here, it seems that old Huggy Bear’s Mountaineers will benefit the most. You can bet he is licking at the chops to get going on this year. His full-court press is really going to make it tough for teams to get off a good shot on a quicker clock. And with that problem, it will also force teams to push harder through the press, committing more TOs in the process, too.
We are fortunate to have this WUG ball to work out the pace issues. Making us use a 24-second clock will later make a 30-second clock feel like an eternity. If we didn’t have this extra season to work it out I believe I would have us near the bottom in our league for struggling through the pace pickup. Self’s game is half court offense, and traditionally, he likes to see his guys work the ball until the final seconds of the shot clock to get a good shot off. The mindset moving forward will have to be different. The mindset now will be: “take the first good shot we have, unless you can directly assist for even a better shot!”
Moving forward, we may see a shift in Self’s priorities and see him rewarding PT based more on offensive attributes over defensive attributes. With a quicker clock, players with less defensive skills will have to perform it 5-seconds less (per possession) than last year. And the players with more offensive skills will need those skills to get a shot off 5-seconds quicker. At least, that is the way it appears on paper.
Back to our league… If Fred was still at ISU I would put ISU up there with WVU at the top of our league for teams with the biggest + on the quicker clock. But I’m not so sure now. The Cyclones will be a mystery team this year. Lots of great offensive talent but a new coach and a learning process for everyone. I still place them high because they will be stocked with quality offensive players and many will be veterans.
I’m thinking Texas might suffer with a shortened clock. Shaka’s first year and he’ll have to learn to communicate quickly to his players and get them to perform with a faster pace. I would think that a shorter clock will hurt players like Ridley, unless he has dropped more weight in the off-season.
Baylor seems more like a wash. Not sure how Drew adjusts or if he needs to. His teams always seem a bit undisciplined so I’m doubting they have a problem getting off quick shots.
Oklahoma always has Buddy to get off a shot whenever he wants to. He can put it up right over anyone in the league. I think we need to see what new talent they bring in to see how they will react to a faster paced clock. Last year, they didn’t need a lot of time to get off their shots. I’m predicting them closer to the top with WVU.
OSU seems like a team that might be hit hard by the quicker pace. Again, it matters who they have recruited, but I can see them being rushed often on their shots.
Texas Tech and TCU seem closer to the bottom because they just lack enough competitive players. They may fall victim to attrition, too.
KSU… well… they look like they are going to stink regardless of the shot clock. I put them at the very bottom even though Weber usually does a decent job coaching up the players he does have.
My final assessment, teams with the most positive gain first:
WVU
ISU
KU
OU
BU
UT
OSU
TCU
TT
KSU
-
What the heck is Havoc? Breaking down Shaka Smart’s press. http://www.burntorangenation.com/2015/4/3/8337897/shaka-smart-texas-longhorns-havoc-defense and WVU
-
The quicker shot clock benefits teams with guards that can get their own shot. When the shot clock runs down, you have to have a creator that can get their own. For a lot of coaches, this will require them loosening the reins a bit on offense so that guys have the freedom to just break down the defense if they can’t get into their set, or the first couple option off a set aren’t there. Individual ballhandlers will be the biggest beneficiaries because they can create on their own when the clock runs down. Teams reliant on getting the ball into the post may struggle because swinging the ball from side to side to get that quality entry takes time. There will come a point where you have to abandon the post entry in each possession in favor of either a side pick and roll or a 1-4 clearout. The key is to ensure that when that point comes, the ball is in the hands of someone that can do something.
Defensively, pressing teams like West Virginia and Texas will force a lot of bad possessions. With Baylor playing the zone, they could also force some confusion as teams may struggle to get into their zone offense, which could lead to some bad shots as the clock ticks down.
On the offensive end, I would say the biggest benefactors are Oklahoma, Iowa State (if they continue to play the matchup style), and Kansas (although I would have liked to have a Malik Newman or Jaylen Brown to go to against the clock). I think it’s pretty neutral for most teams, honestly. It probably hurts a team like Texas Tech or K-State offensively because they just don’t have enough threats.
Defensively, I think it helps pressure teams, so obviously Texas and West Virginia are the biggest winners on that end. Other teams may experiment with some token pressure to gain an advantage from time to time as well.
Ultimately, the teams with talent will benefit most, although the biggest key will be to not overcoach, as it will be incumbent on the players to make plays against the shot clock.
-
KU benefits more from preparing for the 24 second shot clock! http://www2.kusports.com/news/2015/jun/16/fast-talk-jayhawks-practice-fast-play-fast/
-
"Teams reliant on getting the ball into the post may struggle because swinging the ball from side to side to get that quality entry takes time. There will come a point where you have to abandon the post entry in each possession in favor of either a side pick and roll or a 1-4 clearout. "
You mean… Kansas and Self’s hi/lo.
I think Bill is in for a real treat this year. I think he is going to learn what a huge mistake he has been making ever since he arrived at Kansas.
I still think the hi/lo can be run with a 30-second clock. I just think the key is to get into our offense much quicker. The hi/lo needs to happen so quickly that it is almost considered a “secondary break.”
This has always been a problem at Kansas… guards walking the ball up. We’ve never realized the gain by trying to run our offense before the defense sets. This is particularly vital when running a hi/lo because probably the last players on defense to set properly is the post defenders, because they have to step up and form body contact with the offensive post player. Most other defenders just need to be set on a spot on the floor, unless they are playing M2M, which means just about anything, depending on how they play their man.
We should never have an issue feeding the post on a quick setup offense. I just hope we finally realize what we have to do to be successful with a shortened clock. We should have already had this mindset with a 35-second shot clock.
There is a world of difference between a 30-second clock and a 24-second clock. 30-seconds is enough time to run a hi/lo if we don’t fart around bringing the ball up or have our PG holding the ball at the top of the key. We’ve always done that before and I got sick of screaming at my television. I recall several years ago when Bobby Knight mentioned how slow we were in setting our offense.
-
They are all variation of the full court pressing/trapping “40 minutes of hell” defense started by Nolan Richardson at Arkansas and embraced by coaches such as Mike Anderson ( Richardson assistant) and Smart with varied levels of success. In 2004 Anderson and UAB beat the top seeded Kentucky Wildcats who could not overcome the pressing defense. In the next game against KU, Aaron Miles was able to beat the press and feed the paint resulting in career day for Wayne Simien who ended up with 30 points and KU won going away 100-74…
The key to beat the type of defense is good PG that can beat the press. If the PG beats the press. most of the time the team will have easy scoring opportunities inside or open shots from the outside. If the PG cannot beat the press it will result in turnovers or steals and easy points the other way. This style of play is physically taxing on the ball handlers of the team on the offense but it is even more taxing on the trapping defenders who need to be in top shape. You definitely need to have the right players to execute this defense properly and it will be at least a couple of season before Smart has the right personnel at Texas for his style of play.
-
Easy.
The teams that emphasize defense the most.
Why?
Simple.
From 35 to 30 seconds is a 15% drop in the time great defensive teams have to expend max energy guarding.
Thus the defensive minded coach now essentially adds 15% to his energy budget that he can allocate to increased longer bursts of peak defensive intensity, when his team has the defensive talent to lock down other teams, or, when not, an additional 15% of the energy budget to be added to transition, or increased effort on offense.
Think about it. The thirty second shot clock is absolutely going to leave more jump in the legs of KU’s shooters on offense, so KU’s trey balling percentage should go up a little, other things equal. Talk about a bonus!!!
Plus, Self’s sticky defense is going to pick up a little sooner and maybe press a little more and so the opponent is going to have less effective time to look for an open shot.
And if the refs keep allowing more contact again, then this 30 second clock is going to greatly hamper ever getting an open look at all.
Thus the teams that squeeze the three the quickest and the farthest out, or cram it inside and muscle for the short three, should also benefit.
I think the defense oriented coaches can reap the most benefits on both ends.
KU, WVU, TCU (if Trent can get some scorers), Tubby (if Tubby can get some scorers), and OU.
KSU could be added to the list in concept, because Weber is an Okie Baller that stresses defense, but his program self immolated.
-
“And if the refs keep allowing more contact again, then this 30 second clock is going to greatly hamper ever getting an open look at all.”
You raise an interesting topic… how the refs are going to call contact this coming year.
With the shortened clock, I’m almost certain the refs are going to have to let them play and allow more contact. If they call all the ticky-tack fouls this year, with the shorter clock we are talking about more possessions… meaning more compressed play where there will be contact. I’m pretty sure both defense and offense will want to push aggressive play because of the compressed shot clock.
Who is going to bend first… refs and the pressure applied by the NCAA to keep the games within the time slot, or teams that get called for a ton of fouls? How many games will be allowed to happen that run 2 1/2 to 3 hours?
The NBA deals with it in a different way. Because the seasons are so long, players have to conserve their energy and also their bodies from too much contact and injury. This is the reason why so much of the season is played without intense defense. Without intense defense, the refs don’t have to blow the whistle as often. Then game time slots can be controlled easier by the amount of whistles.
But every game is important in D1. Teams are going to try to bring defense every night. This could lead to too many whistles unless the refs back off… it is either that or the defense has to back off. I don’t see the latter happening.
-
Self will have to adjust. KU can still run the hi/lo and I think you are right about getting into it from the secondary break. But once the clock goes under 15 seconds, KU needs to get into a pick and roll or some sort of flare action to get a quick hitter going because you don’t want to look up and have Frank Mason with the ball 25 feet from the bucket with 6 seconds on the shot clock.
-
@justanotherfan amen!
-
The more you think about it, the more this change in the shot clock seems like a huge thing. Especially in KU’s case where we run sets that take time, this is a huge season for Self to re-invent the wheel.
West Virginia should be great early at forcing turnovers and enforcing their style of play on the opponent Defensively they could benefit more in the long run if they are able to shorten offensive possession of the other team by 5-7 seconds. I’m sure more teams will zone or press because it gives you the chance to dictate pace if your defense is good.
Iowa St seems to benefit the most because they probably have to change the least offensively. They chuck 3’s, take shots when they want and spread the floor. Will the new coach use the same style? Probably will use something similar as he’s known as an offensive coach.
Oklahoma with Cousins & Hield who can get their own shot whenever & Woodard who can drive the lane and get fouled every time is likely to benefit as well.
I see the rest of the league having to adjust accordingly including KU. Playing at 24 in real live games will really help the transition to a shorter clock. Mason & Graham will have to learn to speed up the pace on every missed & made basket. It’s the greatest practice we will get to the rule change.
