Post-Season Post-Mortem Provocation #2 - The OAD chase is Fool's Gold
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@BeddieKU23 Agree that Duke wouldn’t have advanced with Okafor - also believe they wouldn’t have advanced without Jones and Winslow. That was really my point - that is took three uber talented frosh to make it happen (and a fourth, at least in the NCS game).
Fair point about the timing of Oubre and Alexander. Oubre was good get. Alexander seemed to be primarily a Snacks-Chicago AAU thing - will be interesting to see how replicatable that is.
Good point about transfers - seems that we’ve had more than our fair share. Trying to recall how critical any of those were, however. Rio and Downs did okay elsewhere - anyone else a critical roster component that I’m not thinking of?
Bingo re geography - and Drake et al. Again, that’s kind of my point - given what you well articulated about some of our inherent recruiting disadvantages (doing our best to overcome, but they are there), is it realistic to think that we will be the first choice or can consistently get the 2-3 you would need to reload every year once you are in that pattern. UK can - demonstrated in the past and already has this year. Duke did this last year and already has this year. Can we? Guess time will tell. But, given that there are only 5-10 uber freshmen talents each year and I fully expect those 2 schools to continue to get half or more of them, doesn’t leave a lot to go around to KU, AZ, UNC, UCLA, and so on.
And, you may be right about Bragg. No way to know now. There are exceptions, but there has been a fairly strong correlation between HS ranking and draft status, at least as to OADs. To be clear, that doesn’t mean that a high ranking coming out of HS will lead to being a lottery pick (see Selden). But, the high OAD lottery picks have almost always been McDs or 5 star players coming in. It’s also the case that a lot of kids will declare if they clearly aren’t ready or, worse, don’t have a snowball’s chance in Gila Bend of being drafted or making it in the NBA.
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@JayHawkFanToo Saw a projection from one unnamed GM who said that one of the twins was late second round (around 60) and the other wasn’t in the top hundred on their board.
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I agree the collection of freshman was key, although I think Cook really was the engine of it all. Okafor controlled the game so much with his offensive ability and that was the key between last years duke and this years duke. Just like Wisconsin making the finals because of Kaminsky’s offensive ability. He wasn’t the sole reason but he probably was the biggest factor.
Jury is out on a lot of the transfers. But my point on that was kids that leave the program early that KU invested in them to be 3-4 year players is just as bad as knowing a top 10 kid could bolt after a year. Peters quit Basketball, Adams had more off-the court problems, White left for Nebraska, Lindsay left for New Mexico. Milton Doyle left before the first game, he’s played pretty well at his new school. This year all that can stop if everyone stays that should.
Self can go into the fall with less teaching basic system knowledge and more coaching team and individual work. With Korea games and less roster turnover we will have a big advantage over the last 2 years going into the fall.
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@jaybate-1.0 Exactly.
After last night’s game I’ve decided that the only OADs worth pursuing are centers and point guards. Guys who are going to directly impact the game on every possession, on offense or defense. Guys who have the mentality that it’s squarely their responsibility to ensure victory.
Look at the OADs Self has recruited in the past few years. Xavier Henry, Josh Selby, Andrew Wiggins, Cliff Alexander, and Kelly Oubre (I’m leaving Embiid off this list because he was not considered an OAD at the onset of his recruitment). None of them fit that mold. They all depended on others (largely) to set themselves up on offense. None of those guys possessed the Alpha mentality required to be a sensational OAD. Selby could have been there and, for a time, looked like he might have been that guy. But then injury happened and Bill took the ball out of his hands.
Calipari and, now, Consonants have proven that the heavy OAD emphasis can work if its done at the PG and C positions. Albeit with truly elite talent, of course.
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Ok, then … if we are offering advice to coach Self, would it be then to avoid OADs all together, except the game changing center and/or the game changing point guard?
That would mean no Wiggins, no Oubre, no Cliff. But Embiid would be ok? – (understanding Embiid may not have been a publicly presumed OAD when he signed, but probably was considered that by Self. We know Pitino said in June/2013 that we could have the top 2 picks in the draft – they knew).
I would say, though, that it was the entire package at Duke. The highly talented group of players. They do not win that title in my opinion if they were lacking either Jones or Okafer, and likely not if they were lacking Winslow.
However, suppose you took just Okafer and air-dropped him into Kansas? Right now.
Mason, Svi, Selden, Ellis, Okafer.
Bragg, Greene, Graham, Lucas off the bench.
Thus the dilemma. That looks pretty good.
Is Diallo that good?
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Kind of hard to find draft stuff now on 2014, but what I found, draftexpress, had him at 24. The Top 30 gives contract guarantees.
Hey… maybe the twins are gone! While looking for old draft stuff I found this:
John Calipari: 5-7 Kentucky players likely gone to NBA
Maybe back to the NIT for Kentucky next year?
And maybe no more top talent to Kansas for next year?
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@HighEliteMajor My answer to your question would decidedly be NO - do not avoid OADs altogether - but also don’t base your recruiting strategy on going after the highly likely (even if not certain) OADs. Given some of the unique recruiting challenges we face, it would be to build the core of your roster focusing on the best 4 and 5 star guys who are more likely than not (again not certain) to be around at least a couple of years - go after them hard and sign them early - guys who would love to play for a blue blood program. Leave a schollie and selectively go after the very top of the class - not out of need or desperation - if you don’t get him, you still really like your roster and chances. If you get him, you’re thinking NC.
Yes dropping in Okafor would look great. But, how many others had the same low post skills in his class - Towns and that’s probably it. So, if you went all in and whiffed, it’s a lost season (relatively speaking - like the last two). Even if you drop Okafor in, you better hope it gets you a deep run, because what about the following year. You have to replace with a similar talent level, because you have nothing at all in the post.
PS - have not heard anything to indicate that Diallo has anything close to Okafor’s skills in the post. May be a better defender, however.
@drgnslayr While I would like nothing better than for UK to end up in the NIT next year, regardless of what happens with the twins (who may end up staying), they look to be loaded again. Arguably their two best players after Towns - Booker and Ulis - are likely to be back (although Booker shows up as a mid-1st round on most draft boards). And, they will have Poythress back, plus probably Lee and maybe Johnson. And, Calipari already has the top-ranked class (2 5 and 1 4 star) and he could very well get one or two of the uncommitteds - looks like they are waiting to see with UK guys declaring - wouldn’t be surprised if Newman ends up there.
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Is Diallo an elite offensive talent that Okafor is. Not even close, Okafor has rare skill set for a big.
Diallo is a better defensive player even though he’s a good 2 inches shorter and a few pounds lighter. I’ve seen enough games that weren’t an all-star setting to know that Diallo can impact the game like no other big in his class. But if you throw him the ball in an Iso situation he’s not going to score like Okafor could. The things that I like about Diallo the most is that he can get put-backs, an underrated skill, he runs the floor effortlessly and his hustle is never a question.
What do we want at the 5? A shotblocker? A footer? A scorer? Diallo is A, none are 2 but Thorne is close. and Zimmerman is the last.
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I thought the refs were part of the package as well…:)
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UK is not going to the NIT next year, They are the #1 ranked team in the first ESPN poll for next season.
BTW, ISU is ranked #4, KU #8 and OU #9, Baylor #15 and Texas #21, so it looks like the Big 12 will continue to be tough and Conference Title #12 will be a lot more difficult to win.
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I’m reading a book now called “Tales from the Jayhawks hardwood : a collection of the greatest Kansas basketball stories ever told”. It has stories and quotes from many of the great Kansas basketball stars that ever played here. To name a few, Dave Robisch, Clyde Lovellette, Jo-Jo White, Bud Stallworth, well you get the idea. Really almost all of the greats.
Every single one of them, when asked why they chose The University of Kansas answered the same.
It felt like family. I felt loved. I felt respected. I was overwhelmed by the history and tradition. The campus was beautiful. The fans were knowledgeable and friendly.
Not one dang mention of " I wanted to be in the national spotlight." “I felt going to Kansas would improve my NBA draft prospects.” " I felt I could make an extra 3 mil per year if I went here instead of…Utah State (whatever)."
Pay attention Bill. Recruit the ones who want to work hard and be part of a family. They will hang banners in the Fieldhouse.
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How the times have changed. I bet none of those players had as a final goal to go to the NBA but to get a degree. Nowadays, college is just a steppingstone to the NBA; unfortunately for better or worse…this is reality.
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@JayHawkFanToo Reality Bites.
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I doubt any of those guys were looking at the NBA as a goal. When they played, the average NBA salary was less than the salary you could make as a college graduate going into the work force.
That changed in the 1980’s. The potential to make a huge living as a player now existed, even if you were not a superstar like Wilt or Kareem. Once that happened, players with pro futures could envision themselves playing in the NBA as early as high school. Remember, most players in the 1950’s and 1960’s wanted to play college ball because that was more popular than pro. It wasn’t until the NBA took off in the mid 80’s (the Bird/Magic years) that this changed.
Avoiding OADs assumes that non-OADs will be comparable in talent by the time they are juniors and seniors. Basically, the Frank Kaminsky model.
KU has had guys like that the last few years.
Andrew White did not improve enough to make the rotation, so he transferred. Jamari Traylor is here right now, but we really need a guy that plays ahead of him because he is undersized. Frankamp could not beat out Mason and Graham (two other non OAD players), so he transferred.
The hope is that everyone will improve each year, but the truth is that some guys hit their ceilings much more quickly than we would like. Will Landen Lucas improve enough to be the third big next year, or would we be better off with another freshman big man? That’s the pressing question when recruiting guys beyond the top 20 or 25. How much will they expand their game year by year? Will they make the team better as a junior than a potential OAD would make the team as a freshman? That question has to be asked on a player by player basis.
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…indeed, with diamond encrusted gold grill
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@justanotherfan I understand your analysis, but I’m not quite on board with all it.
First, I don’t want the Jamari Traylors or Landen Lucas’ near our roster except as guys that will sit, learn, and develop. Not good examples for what I’m suggesting. And then, only if truly ready, would those type of guys play their junior and senior seasons (or if we get lucky and they’re Derrick Williams). Right now, neither justifies a bigger role than 4th big, and then, in my mind, only Lucas.
Second, I don’t think it necessarily assumes a Frank Kaminsky – meaning an All-American. I think it assumes a Withey, or Morrises, or TRob (who was comparable to Kaminsky), or Jackson.
Third, you also have to consider the OAD. Thinking of OADs as the Okafer model is nice, for example – studs. But how about the Cliff model? Not sure whether it was all Cliff … I think Self just has a low tolerance for not “getting it.” But OADs do flame out, and you have little time to cash in . Again, how much of KU’s resources were lost on Cliff?
Finally, I would argue that Andrew White did improve enough to make the rotation. He showed it early in the 2013-14 season. He definitely performed. He just had a roadblock in Wiggins. There is no doubt White was better all around than Greene at the time. It’s like the high school quarterback that could start at most schools in town, but a D-1 guy is a class ahead of him. No room. Self chose Greene for a reason over White, but it didn’t appear to be because Greene was better at the time than White.
You are exactly right. It has to analyzed on a player to player basis. But the challenge is roster management. If you have a recruiting approach, then you eliminate variables. So, in hindsight, I would say, for example, that Wiggins was probably the better player vs. what White would have been in 2013-14. Not sure our team is better than it would have been. But I’m very comfortable is speculating that White would have given us more over the entire season than Oubre did. And now White would be going into his senior season. I just think that works better for a system guy like Self.
Inexact science to be sure,
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@HighEliteMajor Agree totally about OADs, and our best system guys are 11-70ish ranked multi-year guys. These are still top athletes.
My take is Self gets his McD’s and he is already quite aware that 80% of them will have sub-expectation frosh seasons and come back for Yr 2, or possibly Yr 3. Self just doesn’t know who it will be… If he gets them back, he wins for his system, as who wouldn’t want a McD-level talent to come back for another year. Even Calipari would–his best teams were ‘blended’ ones.
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A lot of resources were wasted on Cliff. If he hadn’t signed early may we have gotten the package duke got?A big factor that slowed his development was the Ankle injury he got in the summer. That really kept him from developing any post skills or hard work ethics. I bet Self was frustrated that he couldn’t “get it” especially the comment that he gave on his year as “interesting”. After the fact it really looks like he could have used 2 more College years and maybe/probably could have had a similar year to T-Rob by that Jr. season.
The problem is these top rated kids don’t have a “chip on their shoulder”. They already believe they are the man through years of constant recruiting questions and hyped you-tube video’s. They know if they just skate by and show enough effort that they will be making money in a year. I don’t think there is any question that Frank Mason played with more effort than Kelly Oubre did all year. The difference was that all Oubre had to do was not get hurt and show enough skills at certain points of the season to get drafted. Mason at his size, is literally playing every game to even get on a NBA radar or a chance at a professional career. We will see more of this in his Jr. year.
I think that in itself deals with a lot of the issues you see in the College game. Coach K was able to mold a special group of Freshman into vet’s. Great for him, now he’s stuck with exactly 3-4 players returning. Cal did it when they beat KU in 2012, ended up in the NIT the next. It doesn’t happen very often and will always be an “inexact science”. Wisconsin made it to the finals through years of development and years of chemistry and PT. Next year if Dekker doesn’t return, they will return back to rebuilding with a thin roster… The College game is becoming more and more a yearly Russian Roulette where coaches are having to re-train an entire arsenal every 6-8 months.
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@BeddieKU23 I have never bought into this idea that players of any type, OAD or not, shut things down and don’t play hard to prevent injury. First of all, they are very competitive. They want to show people, especially other players, that they are the best. Some of this has led to the current state of the game since more and more people value dunks and posterizing the opponent., These players don’t appear to be concerned for their health performing some of the dunks that we see on the highlight videos. These kids play basketball. For some that is their life to the determent others aspects of it. I fail to believe that if a player sees an opening to get to the basket either on the playground or AFH, they think “I better not take it to the basket because I might get hurt”. Secondly, these kids are kids. They think that they are invincible. Injuries happen to other people and not them.
Although the kids have had people blowing smoke into various orifices of their body, it becomes clear even to the densest of them that NBA players they go against in pickup games are better. When they go to camps run by NBA players it is drummed into their heads that they must work hard to make the league.
There are players who enter the draft because they might get injured the next year. This is different than dogging it on the court. Part of drafting for potential means that scouts and GMs look for people with high athletic ceilings and also the determination to work to get to that ceiling. Why would a team want to draft someone regardless of athletic ability who demonstrates that they are coasting?
There are probably some players who do dog it. These are usually players whose worries include the bus ride from Istanbul to wherever the next game is.
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That was not my intent to say that certain players don’t play hard. But I think we would all be fools if we didn’t believe that kids that know they will get paid are more careful in the things they do. To a certain degree it has to do with consistent effort.
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“UK is not going to the NIT next year,”
Probably not… but I couldn’t resist the jab!
And… you never know. They weren’t supposed to go to the NIT in 2013 either.
ISU #4? Have they nailed some big recruits and not told us? Won’t Niang be a senior? I think he is a solid player, but he doesn’t have the talent to lead them to a FF. #4 would indicate they are FF material. They always have good offense, and they look good early on, but they kind of seem to run out their legs by the end of the season. Seems they need more depth to keep up the motion.
Kind of hard to rank any B12 team over Kansas until one of these teams prove they can win our league.
I think there are plenty of players out there that never found that last gear… the 110% gear that can separate them from the herd at crunch time. I think we need to be recruiting more of these kids. They probably need to bring their own chip with them to Lawrence because we haven’t been good at developing a team chip. I’d love to have another guy like Kevin Young… this time let’s get one for 4 years!
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@drgnslayr I’m not sure about your assessment of Niang - against US anyway, he always looks like the best player in college basketball.
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@nuleafjhawk doesn’t everybody have their best against KU?
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I think Niang is used too much in the year… counted on too many times. His legs usually look like rubber at some point in February. He is very talented… but every player has their limits and can be used up. The Mayor would be smart to try to manage his minutes and assignments better next year if he wants to make any kind of March run.
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ISU is bringing just about everybody back and a few new players including a talented 7’ Greek that had to sit one year. No question that they will start as favorites to win the Conference next season and if Diallo joins the team, they will be a top 3 team, no question about it. IMHO, Niang is good, really, really good and will likely start as pre-season POY in the Conference.
