Recruiting Perfection: Bragg Or Bust
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@Statmachine Coach Squid changed the entire structure of college basketball. Last year’s recruiting class solidified our place at the OAD table. It literally came out of no where. One minute, we couldn’t get a top prospect to save our lives- the next thing we know, we have them in bushels. We have two top 10 players coming in to replace our 2 Top 3 picks in the NBA draft. That’s some tall cotton we’re walkin’ in. We should get our share of the 2015 elites as well.
We aren’t going to be able to put the genie back in the bottle. I know some folks disagree, but I think Coach’s seminal moment came in that title game against Kensucky. He saw KU’s most experienced team get whipped by a team that that was more talented. Hey, we had the ALL-American down low, we also had the best rim protector since Wilt, we had a fast as lightening point guard, and the best defender on the team at the 3. We were simply one of the best defensive teams in the country, and we were dominated. I;ll never forget Tyshawn getting his stuff smacked back in his face on every drive to the basket he made. We started 3 5th year seniors…seniors in their 5th year, and we couldn’t give them a game. That’s about the time period when Coach was interviewed, and said he’d rather have talent than experience.
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The thing with the OAD era is that if you consistently have that talent, as Calipari has shown, you will always have a seat at the table when it comes down to it. As I wrote a while back, since 2006, Calipari has only missed the Elite Eight in 2009 and 2013. Other than the UCLA streak of championships under Wooden and Coach K in the late 80’s and early 90’s, I don’t think there has been such a long string of consistency as far as postseason success by a coach, and if so, I can’t point to one in the last 15 years.
The simple reason why Calipari is there that much is that he fields one of the six or seven most talented teams every year. If his team is healthy come March, you can basically write him into the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight. I think Coach Self saw that and has decided that he wants the same thing. If healthy, I think we had a Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight squad last year and I think we have the same this year, maybe more.
A lineup of non-elite recruits - something along the lines of Mason-Greene-White-Ellis-Lucas - isn’t a lineup that you look at and say is an Elite Eight lineup, even though that’s a more traditional college lineup of a two sophomores and three third year players. But a lineup of Graham-Selden-Oubre-Ellis-Alexander could absolutely be a title team. The experience (assuming those guys all played between 10-15 minutes during their previous years in the program) can’t make up the talent gap when comparing the Selden-Oubre-Alexander trio to Greene-White-Lucas.
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@justanotherfan Agreed, except for Greene. Of all the players on our team, the most interesting to me (beyond the new guys) is Greene. I am transfixed with his skill set. I am mesmerized by the scowling look, and the Rebel without a Cause media interviews. This guy is pure 100% competitor. I don’t think we’re talking huge dropoff with either Selden or Oubre on any level with Greene.
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@justanotherfan So why is it, then, that in the OAD era only two title teams have had even one OAD (Syracuse '03; UK '12)?
It is a huge mistake to think that OADs are the answer. For the right coach, and the right system, they can be “a” path. But they are not “the” path.
The KU lineup of Mason, Greene, White, Ellis, and Lucas – I think the only one we need to trade out is Lucas. And with Self’s recruiting, we should have a top 60 guy there. Add that in. Say a Withey. Actually, let’s use an old go-to name … a Karviar Shepherd-type player…
That is definitely a national title contender.
And I would take that lineup, with *experience", over a grouping of OAD talent any day of the week. But you also added in Selden and Graham to your preferred lineup. Neither are/were presumed OADs. You would rather have Oubre and Alexander as freshman, over top 60ish guys as juniors, for example?
And I would actually say that the OAD deal doesn’t get you a seat at the table. See Kentucky in 2013. They played in the NIT. So while there are peaks, there are big valleys (that isn’t all bad, but it refutes the premise).
Relying on OADs is fools gold. It’s headlines. It’s style over substance. It ignores that freshmen, by and large, need to develop.
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@KUSTEVE Some times no matter how much you practice talent out does you. Lucky for Lucas, Mickelson, and Traylor they all should have enough credits to graduate and potentially be free agents next year if we sign 3 bigs and they are not feeling good about their role as quality substitutes.
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Very nicely done HEM. I guess the one area we agree is that the OAD route is not a long term answer and a less talented but more experienced team would have the edge.
Having said that, and with the prospect of the NBA changing the eligibility rules so players stay in College for two years, then Coach Self’s system becomes effective again.
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@HighEliteMajor when UK played in the NIT they had about the same record as our team last year and they didn’t win there conference. If Nole was healthy experts that year said they would have been in the field of 64. So HEM are you saying that UK has just been lucky the last 3 out of 4 years? How lucky will they be this year with all the talent on their roster? Are you also saying that HCBS is not capable of corralling and getting a team of OAD’s to gel? I think you are going to be pleasantly surprised and you will come to embrace the OAD culture after a few titles…
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http://sports.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-basketball-another-toppled-god-150630484.html
Speaking of UK players.
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@Statmachine Ooooh … I like questions.
I admit that there are holes in my argument on OADs. It isn’t clear cut. There is gray area. I admit that I point to examples that may (or may not) prove my point, but they appear to prove my point.
One “truth” we can agree upon – talent is extremely important. Agreed. Freshman, sophomore, or Julio Franco hitting doubles off the wall at age 45. Talent is talent.
But in a team game, there are many more moving parts.
I do agree that overwhelming talent is hard to argue with.
In my many OAD discussions, I’ve relied upon one important factor – coach Self. I do not believe that his strength is mixing together an OAD pie. He is a system coach. Calipari is not.
Calipari obviously works well in the OAD environment. For the technical coaching aspects that some say he is lacking (which I don’t buy), he makes up for in the ability to manage high talent, and large egos. His coaching is about the players. Last season was masterful.
But coach Self is about the system. Learning the system. working within the system. Restricting players within the system. Heck, an NBA scout prior to draft cited that Wiggins was held back by Self’s system. It’s a common belief. Plus, coach Self is famous for his impatience with freshman errors. His mindset favors comfort, and experience.
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UK has not been lucky three of the last four seasons. They have been very good, and very well coached.
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I don’t know how good they will be this season. But I assume Cal will have them playing well come March.
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Yes and no. Coach Self is capable of corralling OADs, but not in his current mindset. I think he would have a very tough time. Look at last season. Two of the top three picks, and we have our worst season in quite some time. How do you beat that talent? Couldn’t play defense.
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If we get a “few titles” (I assume you mean real titles … the NCAA kind), yes, I will embrace the OAD culture. Heck, one would suit me fine.
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You wrote…
but I think Coach’s seminal moment came in that title game against Kensucky. He saw KU’s most experienced team get whipped by a team that that was more talented. Hey, we had the ALL-American down low, we also had the best rim protector since Wilt, we had a fast as lightening point guard, and the best defender on the team at the 3. We were simply one of the best defensive teams in the country, and we were dominated. ll never forget Tyshawn getting his stuff smacked back in his face on every drive to the basket he made. We started 3 5th year seniors…seniors in their 5th year, and we couldn’t give them a game.
I don’t believe that KU got “whipped” by or that we were “dominated” by Kentucky in that game. KU was within 5 point with 1:38 left in the game and if not for a couple of easy missed shot, this game could have gone the other way. Unfortunately KU dug itself a deep hole in the first half that could not overcome. Do you realize that KU outscored Kentucky by 6 points in the second half? How is that for giving them a game? If not for Doron Lamb (a sophomore by the way) going nuts, this game ends up differently. Not bad for a bunch of lower ranked recruits playing against top ranked and experienced players of which the top 3 performers at the game Lamb, Miller and Jones ***WERE NOT *** freshmen, Miller was actually a senior…so experience does count.
Also, I don’t know where you get your information but KU did not have "3 5th year seniors…senior in their 5th year; " Withey, Releford and Young were all Juniors. and played another season for KU. You are probably thinking of the 2012-2013 season.
As far as the All-American, he clearly outplayed the Unibrow and had better stats in every category except blocks, which were Withey’s job on that team.
Anthony Davis: 1-10, 6 points, 16 rebounds, 6 blocks.
Thomas Robinson: 6-17, 18 points, 17 rebounds, 0 rebounds.
Remember that prior to the draft he used to wear a t-shit that said look at the numbers/stats, or something along those lines; a clear reference to the title game. Granted that Robinson missed a couple of dunks late, but overall he performed very well.
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I added Selden because if he had been healthy last year, I absolutely think he could have been an OAD. He returned because of health issues limiting his production. I added Graham because KU hasn’t had an elite PG recruit since Sherron Collins. I wish we had a better PG, honestly. But we don’t. We have complained about PG woes for the last few years. If you are banking on experience, you’re basically betting that a guy will get better at basketball than he is right now, because he isn’t good enough right now. But what if he doesn’t get better? If you’re betting on talent, you’re betting that a guy will be good at basketball now, without hoping that he will get better later on. The talented guy will make inexperienced mistakes, but also make talented plays. The experienced guy won’t make as many mistakes, but there are some plays that he just won’t be able to make.
UK has proven that you can be good year in and year out with OAD’s. They went to the Elite Eight with Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, went to the Final Four the next year with Brandon Knight (probably would have been the favorite to win it all had they had an eligible Enes Kanter), won it all with Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, etc., missed the dance with an injured Noel and Co., then went to the title game with Randle, Young and the twins. They are in the hunt just about every year. Not just projected to be. Actually there.
The thing with experience is you get maybe one shot every three or four years. With talent, you can be there just about every year. Why did UK beat a very experienced KU team in the 2012 final? They had more talent. They were just better at basketball. Had we had McLemore to go to, we could have played with them because we could have evened out the talent. But the simple fact was that regardless of experience, when you have Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at the college level, you have a defensive behemoth that almost nobody can touch. No amount of execution can eliminate Davis’ shot blocking.
I would not take the lineup with White and Shepherd over Oubre and Alexander. Oubre and Alexander are better at basketball than White and Shepherd. As I’ve said before, to win a title, you have to get some breaks along the way. Every title team gets those. But more than that, you have to be in the conversation. Oubre and Alexander give us a chance to be in the conversation this year. White and Shepherd would not. You can hate UK all day long, but if they are healthy, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them playing deep into March again this year.
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@justanotherfan You say Oubre and Alexander are “better at basketball” than are White and Shepherd. Are you sure of that? I’m with you, though. I assume so.
But are Oubre and Alexander better as freshmen, than White as a junior and Shepherd as a sophomore? That is more relevant.
Even more relevant … are Oubre and Alexander better as freshmen in Self’s system than White as a junior and Shepherd as a sophomore would be (assuming both played prior seasons under Self)?
I don’t know the answer for sure. Embiid was damn good as a freshman. So was Wiggins.
Try this –
I would trade Alexander right now for Karviar Shepherd. Straight up … IF … IF … he had played for Self last season as a freshman. Would you? Would you rather gamble on a highly talented guy that has a year under his belt in Self’s system, over an unknown quantity? Instead of Shepherd, think Marcus or Markieff as sophomores.
That said, I would trade Oubre right now for Andrew White – for this season only. That’s a closer call in my mind. But I’d do it right now. Is Oubre more talented? Sure. But with OADs, it’s a one shot deal. (of course, Oubre might not be an OAD. The sophomore season could be incredible). Oubre could close any gap if stayed another year. But this is a one year, OAD deal. If I had to bank my March on one of these guys, I’d go White. Again, much closer call for me than the Shepherd/Alexander deal.
But you do make a compelling argument. There are some topics I feel “for sure” about … this ain’t one of them.
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Under the conditions you outlined, I too would take Shepherd for Alexander. However, I would not take White over Oubre. We talk a lot about White and his potential…but so far it has been only potential and the reality is that he could not make the starting team or get playing time last season, and,with one year of experience under his belt, chances are he he would still not have made the starting five over Oubre. This would seem to indicate that there are limitations to his game that we do not know but the coaching staff is aware and hence his transfer to a different program…
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@JayHawkFanToo So you would take Shepherd as a sophomore who would probably average Ellis’s sophomore season numbers best case scenario over 16 points 10boards from the #1 PF in the 2014 class? IF and its still an IF, Big Cliff goes #1 or even top 3 in next years draft he brings more publicity to KU than Shepherd. Added bonus either way you look at it.
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@JayHawkFanToo We were never in that game. Ever. Not when we were 5 points away, not when we were tied. We never took the lead - we never took control. Now, we were so good defensively, we stopped them winning by 20, but we were never in the game. I apologize for my recollection of our experience. I did get the two years mixed up…lol. Still, we were way ahead in the experience category. Maybe my mind is searching for a lofting point of when our program changed from a “up the ranks” to more of a OAD approach, and I’m simply trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. Perhaps not. Because it was about that time that Coach talked about preferring talent over experience. It’s my speculation, and dang it, don’t disturb it with facts…lol. I’m sorry for my Skip Bayless moment. The dynamic remains the same - we listened to two hours of announcers yammering about how young Kensucky was - and they were.
I have refrained from commenting on whether I actually like or dislike the OAD system. We have Brady Morningstar as an example of why experience doesn’t always work, and Josh Selby as an example of why a OAD doesn’t always work.
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@HighEliteMajor You will be talking next year how wrong you were about Oubre…lol.
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Two points:
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Hypothesis–Cal did not change the game. George Raveling and Nike changed the game with talent stacking. Cal and Sean Miller just happened to be the guys picked. Likewise, Pitino and Self are not reacting to Raveling and Nike. Adidas is. Pitino and Self just got picked. And Raveling and Nike are not acting in a vacuum. They are reacting to adidas earlier increased push into D1. This is a two player game–Nike and Adidas. All the coaches are trying to do is figure out how to adapt their legacy systems of play to the talent distribution asymmetries being created by a two player producer struggle for branding, endorcers, and market shares.
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The key to coaching remains unchanged: fit the right pieces together with the most MUAs to beat six opponents in 3 two-game tournaments in March.
Systems are a collection of slots filled by personnel. Pick the right ones and they become greater than the sum of their parts. But even then they have to start with INDIVIDUAL MUA. For this reason, Self has to learn how to work with at least two OADS, maybe 3, OADS simply to get the one every game MUA player needed to play for rings.
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@HighEliteMajor said:
I would trade Alexander right now for Karviar Shepherd. Straight up … IF … IF … he had played for Self last season as a freshman. Would you? Would you rather gamble on a highly talented guy that has a year under his belt in Self’s system, over an unknown quantity? Instead of Shepherd, think Marcus or Markieff as sophomores.
I understand that you’re making a totally different point here, so don’t take this as a comment on OADs at large, but in this particular case, I actually would take the frosh Alexander and here’s why: Alexander got ejected from a game last season with two technicals, and suspended from the next. Karviar Sheperd got T’d up once last season, and it was for hanging on the rim after a missed dunk.
Now I know what you’re thinking; how the hell is getting ejected from the game a good thing, right? But Self’s best big men have tended to be the ones with that level of passion. TRob got T’d up 4 times his jr season (and honestly, it probably should have been a couple more), taunting, walking over opponents, and overall just fighting for his portion of the hardwood (he even threw an elbow and was ejected from one of his first NBA games). The Morris twins as jrs stopped getting mad at bad calls or rough play, and simply got even (and though I would have never admitted it at the time, they were master cheap shot artists). JoJo got T’d up 3 games in a row, going so far as to put a fist to a jaw.
Who didn’t get T’d up? Wiggins. He had some amazing games, but he never put the spurs to anyone. I don’t remember Xavier Henry ever getting one. Selby too. McLemore’s only T was doing a goofy dance after hitting a 3 in the Big 12 tournament. That’s not to say that you have to get T’d up a lot to be a great player, or that you want guys just running roughshod and getting thrown out of games, but when push comes to shove… Well, shove someone, dammit. Let the Marcus Smarts of the world take their flops, or scowl at the refs. I want the kid that’s going to stand his ground. Alexander may be raw and he more than likely won’t develop to his full potential in one year at KU, but I have no doubt in my mind that he’s going to play hard, hit hard, and be fearless on the court. OAD or NBA long shot, I want a team of what Kelly Oubre called ‘savages’. I’m hoping he and Big Cliff are true to their words, and that gives me hope for a better ending to this season than last.
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“You can hate UK all day long, but if they are healthy, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them playing deep into March again this year.”
If they remain healthy they should be the team to beat this year in March. They’ve got the tallest D1 team of all time. 3 footers to go along with their tall twins out on the perimeter. They are stacked with All-Americans, and many of those are back for year 2.
Their weakness is Calipari being out-coached. Their weakness is still the twins, if opponents can get over all the intimidation of playing such a tall team and get out there and put pressure on the twins. The only way to beat this team is to beat them at x-axis basketball. Win the game from about 6’3" and lower. Big perimeter pressure, steal passes and dribbles, play more physical and get rebounding position and win the boards, draw fouls with fakes, control tempo… just get Kentucky out of their game. The twins will still choke if there is enough pressure. They are still only a few months older than they were last year when they constantly choked. Last… their weakness is too much media all year creating chaos and slowing down their development.
Self is going to have to put the heat on these kids. The pressure starts from the coaches, and ends with the kids putting up big pressure on the court.
We could easily lose our B12 streak this year. We are going to have to really hustle to win it this year.
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@JayHawkFanToo I don’t believe we were whipped in that game either. However I do believe we played into their hands. At the time I was surrounded by UK fans, and while debating that game with them, I said that we should play Davis straight up (no double team), take away everyone else and make him beat us. The best part of his game was his passing so we should’ve taken that away. This was the thing that worried the UK fans the most leading up to the game. That strategy worked well for us twice against Durrant and Beasley here at AFH. I was really surprised and disappointed when that didn’t happen. Wow, I wasn’t posting here then; that sure felt good to get that off my chest! Sorry if this is all old news!
In regards to Davis and TRob stats, everybody had already crowned Davis National Player of the Year before the season had started. We could have held his stats to zero, had Releford lock him up with big D, and had TRob wear off that unibrow with the bottom of his shoe while hanging from the rim, and it wouldn’t have mattered.
Thanks everybody for letting me get that out. It’s been two years coming!
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On the OAD thing, I hear everybody’s points but I’m ready to jump off the train. One or two to fill a need is fine, but man, it’s going to make an old man out of me quick!
Maybe the biggest fear I have is that we lose all the great success stories that we get from players growing and then having a chance to make basketball their life. Guys like Releford and DJack are making a living with basketball because they weren’t recruited over and were given a chance. Jamari may be the last one if we continue down this road, and that’s just sad.
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@KUSTEVE Now, I’m not down on Oubre at all. Looks like a great player. Just comparing to AWIII as a junior. But I sense you are subtly reminding me of my Tharpe love last fall … duly noted.
And you cite Morningstar for the proposition that I’m supporting. This is an alternative universe. If there ever was something to cause me to rethink my entire existence, that might be it!
@statmachine Remember, it’s not Shepherd this next season. It’s Shepherd after theoretically playing one season under Self. And you sure do have lofty numbers pegged for Alexander – you are projecting essentially Julius Randle numbers (15.0 ppg/10.5 rpg). Heck, how many players under Self have ever averaged close to those numbers? TRob 17.7/11.9, Cole 14.9/11.1, Simien 20.3/11.0 & 17.8/9.3. I might temper those expectations a bit. Embiid was 11.2/8.1.
As a note, Shepherd was 9.1/6.8 his freshman season at TCU.
But I really can’t argue with your projections too much … Alexander might be = Randle. I thought Randle was the right plug in OAD last season for us and would have preferred him over Wiggins. Alexander is a nice plug in OAD this season and fills a clear need. My point is that I wish we didn’t need the plug in OAD and had quality, high talent depth instead.
@konkeyDong I like that outside of the box thinking. So who are the guys with attitudes on this team? Mason, Greene, Alexander. Anyone else?
And by the way, I’m not down on Alexander or Oubre at all, so that’s clear. I think they both will be great assets. And Self pursued and bagged the best talent available. The OAD discussion for me is always a macro approach to team basketball under Self.
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@HighEliteMajor Gotta give it up for ya Maj. once the OAD merry go round starts it tough to get off. They’ve got to tweak that friggin rule, it’s ruining the college game. Surely the L doesn’t want that, it’s their minor league-for free !!
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@globaljaybird
“They’ve got to tweak that friggin rule”
Amen on that!
“Surely the L doesn’t want that, it’s their minor league-for free !!”
We should all be thrilled at the lambasting of Goodell in the NFL. I’m thinking all the other pro league head offices are thinking of cleaning up their act before their heads go on the chopping block.
There are going to be stories coming up, showing athletes like Selby, who went from 0-100 in two seconds, then back to 0.
Suddenly all the pro sports start thinking about their image and hire marketing and PR people to help them review policies.
The OAD rule might end sooner rather than later because a football player punched his girl in the elevator.
BTW: there is only ONE sport in this country… M O N E Y ! Catch it while you can!
Filmed at 11…
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@globaljaybird Hey! I was wondering this weekend just what happened to Oakville? He was one of my favorites from the old site. Do you have any idea where he’s at? Any way to send out a search party and coax him from wherever he is to here?
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@jayhawkbychoice Glad you asked. Some of the guys that are still registered at kusports.com have IM’ed him & they’ve received no response. About the first of the year we even started a thread on buckets to entice him to join in our forum but to no avail. Slayr, HEM, nuleaf, myself & several others wrote snippets on the thread for several days why we needed Oakville to join buckets, but our efforts fell short. Maybe it’s time to revive our quest. He is one funny & hoop savvy guy, & he’s buried deep in enemy territory (ST Louis). Another recon is a damn great idea. Reading Oakville oddities is about the only reason I ever even click on the LJW site anymore. Oak would be in the starting lineup here at buckets-he’s one witty dude.
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@jayhawkbychoice Not only sad, but wrong. IMO
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Shepherd is a very good player that Coach Self pursued heavily. My comment was based on HEM’s premise that he had already played one year under Coach Self. It is the proverbial premise of whether you pick a proven player with good potential or an unproven player with greater potential. Also keep in mind that Shepherd will like stay in college longer than Alexander and will continue to improve and it comes a time where you have to look at the long term outlook (Shepherd) rather than a short term boost (Alexander).
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I agree. As I indicated, KU dug itself into a deep hole in the first half and even when it outscored UK by six in the second half, it was not enough to overcome the deficit. By the way, KU last year’s team was younger than the UK.2012 team The three key players in 2012 UK championship game were 2 sophomores and 1 senior.
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You wrote:
We were never in that game. Ever. Not when we were 5 points away,
I guess when KU was down by 9 points with 2:12 left against Memphis in 2008, KU was never in that game either, right? How did that game work out?
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@JayHawkFanToo Ahhh…I wasn’t trying to rub in our loss. That game still gnaws at me today We played pretty well in that game. It was one of the first times I had seen a KU team simply get beat by talent. And that’s a testament to what an amazing program we have. Most of our losses as a team are in games where we simply give the game away in one form or another- where our best effort would’ve won the game, no matter who we play. This game was different - we didn’t play badly - they were simply better.
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@HighEliteMajor “And you cite Morningstar for the proposition that I’m supporting. This is an alternative universe. If there ever was something to cause me to rethink my entire existence, that might be it!”**LMAO. That’s PHOF material.
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The nature of college basketball makes it tough to really build for the long term. You are never guaranteed to have a core of players together for more than a few years, even if they all stay in school and graduate.
Think back to the recruiting class of 2004 - Darnell Jackson, Sasha Kaun and Russell Robinson. You add Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush the next year. That’s a good group. Then you come back the next year and get Sherron Collins and Darrell Arthur. That’s the championship rotation. But it took us three years to put that group together and we had two chances with that group. One chance went down the tubes because of Sherron’s late season injuries in 2007. If Rush goes pro, we never get another shot with that group. Three years of work would have likely been down the drain because of a guy getting banged up down the stretch of the season. We would have had an Elite Eight and a first round loss to show for it.
As I have said, for experience’s sake, you have one shot every three years or so. Maybe not even that. The 2009 team wasn’t talented enough to go deep into the tournament. Sweet Sixteen was their absolute ceiling, I believe. We should have had a shot in 2010 (due in large part to the addition of OAD Henry), but a random upset knocked us out. That’s just bad luck, but that knocked off a team that otherwise probably would have had a chance. In 2011 we got to the Elite Eight, but ran into VCU. Had OAD Selby been healthy, we probably have a Final Four team, maybe even a title considering that was a pretty weak year. 2012 I firmly believe had we had OAD McLemore, we could have beaten UK. Without him, we didn’t have the firepower. 2013 we didn’t net a single elite recruit (I don’t consider Ellis an elite recruit because I feel his ceiling is very good college player) and without our big guns (Taylor, Robinson) back in the fold, we again didn’t have the firepower. This year, more bad luck with injuries knocked us out.
So the question is - do you want one shot every few years when things go perfectly, or do you want a shot every year (or every other year). If you want a shot every few years, recruit for experience. If you want a shot every year, you need the best combination of talent every year. That means OAD’s, because it’s likely that OADs will produce better in their only season than most of the experienced juniors and seniors will.
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From a talent perspective, you are right, and we stand a better chance by recruiting higher talent.
What really pays off is when players that maybe should have gone pro, hang back for another year. You mention '08… what really worked for us was Rush getting hurt and coming back for another year. We had a good fortune as a result of his bad fortune.
It is hard to talk about chance without talking about luck. We were fortunate because of Rush’s injury the year before, then we were fortunate to keep our guys healthy through the run.
In 1988, turns out we were fortunate to lose Marshall for the second time. It is hard to say that, because we all suffered so much with Archie. But there is no guarantee we would have won it all with a healthy Marshall. Losing him gave that team all the heart they needed to win out in March, even against a tough Oklahoma team with all that talent.
In 2012… heck… were we really the second best team in the land? We didn’t have a single McD’s AA, but we had a team that had endured the loss of Robinson’s mom. That lit a torch in the souls of those guys to step up and push harder. I know that is the most proud second place I’ll ever experience.
The one aspect that is gone from a team of OADs is the relationship of being a team for a longer period of time. That helps the guys come together as a group, especially when something horrible happens and they have to fight through it together. You never hope for bad things to happen, but it took some bad stuff for us to come through in '88, '08 and '12.
Look around at other teams. Louisville losing Ware… UCONN being banned from post season play.
I’m curious to know if we went through the list of champions, how many went through some kind of major struggle that toughened them up to win.
I’m making a point, but I also agree that snagging big talent helps our chances. We just need to try to have a mix with some quality older players, too.
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Indeed. The nature of the college game has changed big time with the advent of the OAD, at least for the elite programs.
You can build a team 3 ways:
OADs - This is the UK model that depend heavily on OADs, a couple of less than stellar classes and the program can crash. Even with top recruiting classes, a key injury can land you in the NIT and loosing to Bobby Mo.
NO OADs - This the model that most schools use, not necessarily by choice but more likely because they cannot land the big time recruits.
Hybrid - This the model used by KU and several other elite programs that can recruit some elite, OAD players but not enough to go full OAD like Kentucky. Since the program does not depend heavily on OADS, a couple of poor recruiting season might set the program back but would not necessarily create havoc.
I personally prefer the approach that depend on top but not necessarily elite players that will stay in school at least 2 years and preferably more. Let’s face it, if a player is good enough to go to the NBA, chances are he will not stay 4 years, and if he is good enough, he should not; not that many senior in the NBA draft anymore.
To me, the best approach is one similar to the model baseball uses. A player can go directly from HS to the NBA and players like Lebron and Durant do not need to go one year to college, but if the player chooses to go to college then he must wait 3 years.
Several positive results with this approach.
Allows exceptional players a direct path to the NBA.
Prevents HS to NBA busts.
Players that go to college are better prepared for the NBA.
Improves the level of college basketball and competition becomes much better. I will guess the NBA fears a higher level college game that could compete with them for audience.
Last but not least, allows the student-athlete to make substantial progress towards a college degree that he can use if the NBA does not work.
The OAD rule was established by the NBA for purely selfish reasons. There had been a number of HS to NBA busts and the league wanted to observe players in better environment than HS games and hence college basketball became the NBA’s laboratory.
Can you imagine the level of competition we would see in college with teams full of NBA caliber players in their third year? It would be awesome. Would any team be able to beat a KU team with top players in their third year under Coach Self’s system?
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@drgnslayr Chemistry. Elusive, subjective, non-quantifiable. Chemistry is built. It rarely happens overnight. It can be inspired by events, as you describe. Most commonly, the “us against the world” approach, or the coach bringing the team together by inspiring the team to hate him, thus giving the team a common cause or enemy. Masterful coaches build chemistry in many subtle ways.
Chemistry combined with coaching acumen, most times, overcomes pure talent in team sports. At some point, of course, talent will be overwhelming.
The key is to have high talent, and have the time to mold and meld it into a cohesive group that can execute a competent coach’s desires.
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@HighEliteMajor “Remember, it’s not Shepherd this next season. It’s Shepherd after theoretically playing one season under Self. And you sure do have lofty numbers pegged for Alexander – you are projecting essentially Julius Randle numbers (15.0 ppg/10.5 rpg). Heck, how many players under Self have ever averaged close to those numbers? TRob 17.7/11.9, Cole 14.9/11.1, Simien 20.3/11.0 & 17.8/9.3. I might temper those expectations a bit. Embiid was 11.2/8.1”
The last 4 to 5 #1 PF’s on ESPN’s top 100 in the NCAA have averaged those lofty numbers. I would imagine Alexander is going to have a long enough rope to achieve those numbers or foul out every game.
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The baseball model would be interesting for basketball. I don’t think the level of play in college would increase, as most elite players would opt to go the juco route because they can leave juco early rather than being tied to the three year commitment of NCAA ball. For instance, a player like Selden or some of the other highly touted freshmen may opt for juco because they can leave after one or two years rather than committing for three. It could literally cause most top 50 players to opt for NBA, Juco or D-League. Almost no top 100 baseball player ends up actually enrolling in college. Most head to the minors instead. I doubt the cut would be that deep in basketball, but I could see the top 30 or 35 players all skipping the NCAA.
As for HS to NBA busts, there have been surprisingly few. Let’s look at every player that declared for the draft straight from high school.
Looking purely at how they performed in the NBA:
1970’s - Moses Malone, Darryl Dawkins, Bill Willoughby. Willoughby was the least successful of this era, but he played 8 years in the NBA. Dawkins played 14 years and Malone is a hall of famer.
1980’s - Shawn Kemp. One of the best players in the 1990’s.
1990’s - Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O’Neal, Taj McDavid, Tracy McGrady, Al Harrington, Rashard Lewis, Korleone Young, Ellis Richardson, Jonathan Bender, Leon Smith. Garnett and Bryant are future HOF’s. Jermaine O’Neal and Tracy McGrady were perennial all stars. Harrington and Lewis were both rotation level players for the bulk of their 10+ year careers. Bender fell out of the league due to a congenital knee problem. Young and Smith were both busts. Richardson and McDavid weren’t even D1 recruits when they declared, so its no surprise they didn’t make it.
2000’s - Darius Miles, Deshawn Stevenson, Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, DeSagana Diop, Ousmane Cisse, Tony Key, Amare Stoudemire, DeAngelo Collins, Lenny Cooke, LeBron James, Travis Outlaw, Ndudi Ebi, Kendrick Perkins, James Lang, Charlie Villanueva, Dwight Howard, Shaun Livingston, Robert Swift, Sebastian Telfair, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, JR Smith, Dorell Wright, Jackie Butler, Martell Webster, Gerald Green, CJ Miles, Ricky Sanchez, Monta Ellis, Lou Williams, Andray Blatche and Amir Johnson.
Big group here. James is one of the best of all time. Howard and Stoudemire have both been elite players when not saddled with injuries. Chandler, Livingston, Jefferson, both Smith’s, Ellis and Blatche have all been starters for multiple years in their careers, at times performing just below all star level. Williams, Johnson, Wright, Outlaw, Webster Stevenson, Brown and Perkins were/ are all rotation level players during their careers. Butler, Sanchez, Key and Lang were not big D1 recruits. Darius Miles’ career was cut short due to chronic knee issues. CJ Miles and Gerald Green have been in and out of the NBA. Villanueva went to college and eventually became a lottery pick. Curry, Diop, Cisse, Ebi, Swift, Collins and Cooke were all busts.
That’s 49 players total, a little less than a full draft. There are no less than four HOF or future HOF (Malone, Garnett, Bryant and James). You could make a case that Dwight Howard is a future HOF. For all star caliber players there’s Kemp, O’Neal, McGrady, Stoudemire and Jefferson. That’s 9 players that are at least all star level players. There were only 15 players that should be considered busts in the entire group, and 6 of those guys weren’t even major D1 recruits. That means that there were as many all star level (or better) performers as there were outright busts if you consider the players that had a reasonable shot, since declaring for the NBA draft really only requires paperwork.
I actually had a high school teammate that didn’t even start for us consider declaring for the NBA draft just to get his name in the newspaper since all of the declared players are listed. He had no aspirations of playing in college, so his eligibility wasn’t at risk. It was going to be a joke more than anything. He didn’t, but I kind of wish he had. He had as much chance of being drafted as a guy like Taj McDavid.
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@Statmachine I don’t (and wouldn’t) expect Shepherd to average 15 and 10 as a sophomore. That makes your case more convincing. If Alexander bangs out those numbers, my mind will be pried open to the OAD way of thinking. I think your citation to those stats is very compelling.
That got me thinking. Sullinger was one of the PFs you cited. Same height as Alexander? Sullinger a tad bulkier. Never seemed really overmatched height-wise in the post. But that might be a very good comparison. I’ll take Sullinger’s 17.2/10.2 and shut up about OADs. Question is, @Statmachine, can you deliver the goods?
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@HighEliteMajor Anthony Davis sported the shirt #'s don’t lie in a pre draft interview lol. We will just have to see how Big Cliff does in comparison to his predecessors?
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The model would work the same as it does now but instead of being 1 year removed from HS it would be 3 years. The JuCo is a no go since it does not provide the level of competition or exposure that players need and the 3 year period after HS would still apply. The only options would be the D-League and overseas teams but there is only a limited supply of space there, so the bulk of players would still go to Division I schools.
As I indicated, the true elite players can still go directly to the NBA and skip college altogether. As far as the busts, the NBA GMs themselves indicated that the one year rule was establishes specifically for this purpose; I personally heard Kevin Pritchard, former KU player, indicate this much in a radio interview on 610-AM while he was still GM of the Portland Trail Blazers. keep in mind that every lottery player that does not pan out ties the team to $12M-$15M, not an insignificant figure. There is lots of information on players that left after one year and did not do well in the League. The consensus seems to be that only players selected in the top 10-11 (almsot all lottery picks) have consistently performed well, but players selectedbelow that are hit and miss and most end up as journeymen in the League.
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Our culture is so different than it was 40, or even 20, years ago. One of the problems is that so many of these kids come from single-parent homes. Many of them have come from homes that have been in poverty their whole lives. It’s understandable why a Selby or McLemore would want–or need–to start earning money ASAP.
One thing that could alleviate the OAD issue would be for the players to be paid a decent stipend for playing D1 basketball. At the very least let them borrow money at low interest. They generate millions of dollars of revenue but don’t get enough to help their family back home.
I don’t think either Selby or McLemore would have been an OAD If Ifnances had not been a factor they had to consider.
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The thing is, most any player selected outside the lottery is hit or miss, regardless of experience.
For example, let’s take the 16th overall pick. That’s a non-lottery, mid first round pick. John Stockton was a 16th pick. That’s pretty good. Ron Artest, Hedo Turkoglu and Nick Young were, too. Not bad. Bill Wennington. Tony Delk. Some solid players here.
But Troy Bell, Jiri Welsch, Randy Woods, Kirk Haston all were 16s and they were not productive at all. You can find a good player at any pick, but outside the top 10, there are some massive misses.
The sad truth is that there are some guys that can play at that level and some that can’t. If you can, you will last in the league, even if you struggle for a few years. If you can’t, you will wash out regardless of experience.
Take Jermaine O’Neal for example. Through his fourth year in the league, O’Neal never played even 1000 minutes for a season. He didn’t average even 5 points or 4 rebounds in any one of those years. I suspect many people would have labelled him a bust at that point. The next seven years in the league O’Neal averaged 13/10, 19/10, 21/10, 20/10, 24/9, 20/9, 19/9 and was an all star six times. Jermaine O’Neal was able to survive because he was a good enough player to merit an NBA roster spot that entire time, and once he took off, he took off. After that peak, he spent 3 years averaging a very solid 13/7.
Now the question is this - would Jermaine O’Neal have had a better NBA career if he had gone to college? Looking at that peak again - six all star seasons, averaged a double double 4 straight seasons, averaged over 20 per game 4 straight seasons - does college improve on that at all, or was Jermaine O’Neal prepared just as well by sitting on the bench in Portland for four years as he would have been playing at Clemson or North Carolina. I would say this - going up against NBA players every day in practice was much more beneficial to his development on the court than going up against guys with no pro future because it made him develop his skills even more so rather than depend on his superior athleticism and size in college.
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@HighEliteMajor I have ran many numbers to figure the odds of Alexander producing the numbers I have previously posted and my way of figuring things produce a ±1. I did it on Wiggins for example and his numbers were 2 points higher than his predecessors but if you were to average minutes per game and then punch in Wiggins MPG (which were higher) its a 1 point difference using Wiggins MPG instead of the average MPG of the previous 3 SF’s. MKG, Shabaz, and Barnes #s are about 1 point different than Wiggins Freshman stats. So depending on MPG Cliff should produce that 16 ppg and 10 rbg ±1. As long as he plays at least the average amount of time his predecessors did. Its a work in progress…
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@Wigs2 I would point out that no one made Selby or McLemore go to college. They each could have played immediately overseas – Israel, Turkey, Russia, wherever – and could have sent money home. Further, if they really needed to help at home, then they could have skipped college all together and got a job. The problem isn’t the NCAA and stipends. You suggest now stipends so they can send money home, which is different than the “pizza money” narrative. The problem is simple poverty and that’s a broader problem. Yes, the kids are part of a process that makes millions. but so are the employees at McDonalds earning minimum wage. The college hoops players get value far exceeding minimum wage. Simply because you participate in a multi-million dollar industry doesn’t mean you deserve to earn an owners’ share of the profits. The players are replaceable parts. The NCAA and colleges own facilities, trademarks, and the business itself. Selby and McLemore each made a choice to come to college under the LOI they signed. I do wonder though, even if both would have had let’s say, Zach Peters’ parents’ financial situation, would they have still gone pro? I don’t know.
@Statmachine – When I was looking back at others’ numbers, I saw Aaron Gordon was 12 ppg and 8 rpg. Does your analysis take into account system and teammates? For ex., if a kid is the top option, or one simply one of many weapons?.
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@HighEliteMajor I feel strongly Ben Mac would have stayed, he was crying when he left. Going to school, having hot water, food, a bed, mentors, tutors, friends, etc. meant the world to him. He truly was happy here. Selby I don’t know. I do feel sorry for him!
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@HighEliteMajor Is that a realistic possibility? Are overseas teams seeking to sign American high school players? I’ve heard of it being mentioned to go overseas right out of high school, but I’m not aware of any who have done it. And–judging by what I’ve read about Svi–if they want to play in the NBA, it might be detrimental to their long-term future if they decide to play overseas first.
And although you say that the players “get value far exceeding minimum wage,” I 'm not convinced that’s a good argument since they are in school to play basketball–not learn business or psychology. I think that all too often, they are being used to make big profits for the schools and the NCAA.
Other students who are on scholarship don’t have the same restrictions and demands that athletes do. I’m from the old school, but I think it’s time to start allowing some financial assistance.
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@Wigs2 coach browns hot recruit went overseas, mundiay(sp).
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@Wigs2 Dante Exum played overseas instead of college and so did Brandon Jennings, although Exum was a foreign player, I think.
Reed is a good example of a player who is getting a good value for his time here. I think he is at KU Med school right now. I’m sure others know more about that.
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KU graduates just about every player that stay 4 years and many that left early come back to finish their degree; Cole Aldrich was Academic All-American Player of the year in his third and last year at KU and took summer classes to complete his degree and proudly walked down the hill, which is something that he had promised his parents. BTW, the “greatest walk-on” at KU, Christian Moody, also went on to Medical School and Sasha Kaun got a degree in Computer Science.
A small group of players that attended (and hopefully graduated from) KU end up in the NBA, a few others are coaching or working for Athletics programs but the great majority of players end up working in a fields other than basketball or sports.
