All Politicked Out? Election 2020
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@FarmerJayhawk you don’t think having Trump at the top of the ticket had the most to do with the turnout? what makes Mitch the greatest?
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk you don’t think having Trump at the top of the ticket had the most to do with the turnout?
Also, what makes Mitch the greatest? Winning?
I do not. Down ballot candidates ran pretty far ahead of Trump in a ton of districts D’s thought they had in the bag. Like in JoCo, Marshall and Adkins ran a couple points ahead. Legislative candidates ran WAY ahead of Trump. A similar pattern emerges around the country. Biggest example is Collins in Maine. If anything, down ballot candidates had coattails for Trump.
Cocaine Mitch, the grim reaper, Midnight Mitch, whatever totally badass nickname you prefer, is the most consequential Senator since LBJ, and he may end up surpassing LBJ in accomplishments. He’s incredible at keeping his slim majority together and playing the long game. He runs circles around Schumer and previously Harry Reid. He kind of used Trump as a useful idiot in his ultimate goal of remaking the federal judiciary. Really a masterclass in parliamentary leadership.
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@FarmerJayhawk consequential, I agree, but to be great you first have to be good, and the man is evil.
I prefer “Senor Turtlehead” or “Yertle The Turtle”
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@approxinfinity hard disagree on the evilness of Cocaine Mitch.
Anyways, we got a nice AZ vote dump from Maricopa. Trump +18. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the AP retract its call.
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I’ll have to think more about how likely the down ticket votes drove votes for Trump. It seems like even if the top of the ticket was a Biden or 3rd party vote, if the election was a referendum on Trump, good or bad, he still drives people to the polls who might split their ticket
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Why do we cast physical ballots? Why don’t we have a secure government website where we can cast our vote easily and securely? It can be done with the same level of checksums and transparency. This whole process is sloppy, inefficient and an avenue for greater voter suppression.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
an avenue for greater voter suppression.
And you have your answer. It isn’t about getting the most votes. It is about getting the right votes.
Is that ethical? No. Is that reality? Absolutely.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Also, theres this… https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/trump-campaign-files-lawsuit-in-georgia-to-pause-ballot-count
Trump and crew strategy: F with USPS, then sue when delayed unprocessed absentee ballots are allegedly processed after 7PM.
Trump was having mail sorting machines destroyed and driving home this narrative that mail-in voting is wrong. Then he wondered why he was not getting mail-in votes… Maybe he should have played it differently.
Looks like the Republicans are flipping some house seats. As always, perfect balance to insure nothing gets done.
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This whole Arizona thing isn’t over yet. - - they said Trump would need to get 57 % in Mericope Co to stay in the race for Arizona - -and that’s exactly what he got - -57 % . they were saying if he wins Arizona and holds Pennsylvania Trump will win.
In Pennsylvania they said they have Democratic clerks coming forward and bringing forth things about illegal activity from Democratic party
They talking about like 23,000 votes from a dump vote in Pennsylvania and Biden got EVERY Single vote 100 % - -ZERO votes for Trump in that 23,000 dump vote - - roflmao - -like they saying ummmm something for sure wrong there. - -this is about to get REAL UGLY
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@FarmerJayhawk here in ks the pacs just killed us! The mods got beat in the primary and we got some psycho right wing nut jobs. Here in hutch was the worst! It’s to long of a story.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Why do we cast physical ballots? Why don’t we have a secure government website where we can cast our vote easily and securely? It can be done with the same level of checksums and transparency. This whole process is sloppy, inefficient and an avenue for greater voter suppression.
In short, they’re unhackable and a permanent, unalterable record will always exist. Several places have experimented with online voting, and to an attempt there have been potentially fatal security flaws. The Feds released a pretty spiffy report on it not long ago.
Plus, there are still households in Louisiana without electricity due to hurricanes. It would be a total mess to deal with power outages. Think if a big ice storm hit Minneapolis right before Election Day. What’s the backup plan? Paper ballots. We even use them as a backup to voting machines. Paper ballots are still the most secure and failsafe way of voting. It’s not super efficient and takes awhile to count, but I’d rather keep doing it this way than reinventing the wheel for something so important.
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk here in ks the pacs just killed us! The mods got beat in the primary and we got some psycho right wing nut jobs. Here in hutch was the worst! It’s to long of a story.
I know the story well! I consulted on a few KS races this year. Was a fun time. I talked to a few GOP types last night in the state and nobody anticipated what was going to happen (with the exception of Jared Suhn, because he’s a freaking savant). My early thoughts are the D’s got out hustled in JoCo. Kellie Warren is a freaking machine, as an example. I think D’s nominated some candidates that were poor fits for the district. Constance was a bad candidate in SD-10. Jim “interns make the best DD’s” Ward was truly bad against Petersen. Shoot, most Democrats are even lukewarm at best with Ward. They really need to do a better job recruiting candidates. R’s had some rock stars in some of these races. Kristen O’Shea flipped Laura Kelly’s old seat by 20 points (against a bad candidate in Tobias). Beverly Gossage got in a tough race late and pulled it out (full disclosure: I was a bundler for her waaaay back in the day). Brenda Dietrich will be very good. And have to give a shout to my best girl, Senator Elaine Bowers. She’s an incredibly lovely human.
The House is going to be pretty cranky and hard to deal with but Laura and the new Senate President (likely Longbine) will be able to drag the House around a bit. Should be an interesting couple years over there.
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@FarmerJayhawk I don’t buy it. If they hired real IT professionals to drive the project, they wouldn’t have critical security flaws. And as far as paper balloting being more secure and less corruptable, the fact that we would even entertain the ideas that there were massive dumps of votes for one candidate or the other, and ballots lost or destroyed, real or imaginary that all goes away with online voting.
Issue each citizen a unique online ID/gov email with an auto generated complex password. Password retrieval might be done in person. This email is used for all interactions with the government. In the case of voting, their response would be emailed back to them and they might vote well ahead of the deadline to be sure they have proper confirmation of how their vote was tallied. There would still be a local presence to handle things, especially in areas of extreme poverty or areas under duress.
My assumption is that Republicans do not want this. Maybe neither party does. This can easily lead down a path toward a more direct democracy with higher participation.
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@approxinfinity Forgive me, but that is the worst idea about voting I have heard in years. No system with widespread access is unhackable (think of the vulnerability of users’ credentials to get in, not the central code); millions of people do not have reliable internet access (kids are sitting outside motels to do virtual learning); many more millions have little ability to use or protect passwords (have you tried to coach an 83 year old non-internet user how to Zoom?); it would require universal voter registration (as well as national ID cards, not a viable idea in the US); and no one would trust the results.
Online voting in the US is a dream only.
A better idea would be to have national uniformity of voting and counting procedures.
“They can take away my paper ballot when they pry the pen from my cold, dead hands.”
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@mayjay hear me out.
We have social security numbers right? Just like a ss #, your password would be issued on a card that you’d be responsible to stash in a safe place. That is reasonable and not very different than a system we already have.
As far as people without internet, as I said, a fallback system would still be present.
This isn’t a pipe dream. It’s a goal that we should strive toward aggressively.
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https://twitter.com/davidmanel/status/1323921182622732288?s=21
Someone who knows more than me tell me about this?
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@mayjay hear me out.
We have social security numbers right? Just like a ss #, your password would be issued on a card that you’d be responsible to stash in a safe place. That is reasonable and not very different than a system we already have.
As far as people without internet, as I said, a fallback system would still be present.
This isn’t a pipe dream. It’s a goal that we should strive toward aggressively.
At least we didn’t have major hacks that revealed everyone’s personal information over the last several years! DIA was breached after all. If someone (like, say, a country that rhymes with Prussia) can breach one of our most secure intelligence agencies, how could we secure a nationwide voting system? Does DIA not hire real IT pros? Same with the banks. Our national track record does not inspire confidence.
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@benshawks08 said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
https://twitter.com/davidmanel/status/1323921182622732288?s=21
Someone who knows more than me tell me about this?
There was some polling evidence (especially in Florida) that Trump was making significant gains with minority men. There was also some evidence Trump really lost ground with seniors. In looking at a few counties, it looks like the first materialized, the second did not. We’ll know more when final exits come out.
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Early exit poll data supports this but yeah I’m extremely interested to see the full info.
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@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think the government hires the best and brightest IT people at all. They’re paid less than in the private sector, with less interest work using old technologies. Also, the government has done a poor job with contracting IT companies who are similarly below the grade. While not the Government, see the most recent DNC contract re: the app developed by Shadow for the Iowa Caucus. Amateur hour.
This would obviously have to be done by people who know what they’re doing. This is simply at its core the guaranteeing of one piece of data (ballot with a few fields) that may be written once only per unique user, and then have an adequate checksum system / redundancy to guarantee its integrity / availability. This does not seem very hard in theory tbh. We aren’t talking about continued access to update the data. One time. Read only thereafter. They need to do one simple thing but do it very well.
Hire the best and brightest. Make it transparent and redundant.
Fear should not stop us from progress.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think the government hires the best and brightest IT people at all. They’re paid less than in the private sector, with less interest work using old technologies. Also, the government has done a poor job with contracting IT companies who are similarly below the grade. While not the Government, see the most recent DNC contract re: the app developed by Shadow for the Iowa Caucus. Amateur hour.
This would obviously have to be done by people who know what they’re doing. This is simply at its core the guaranteeing of one piece of data (ballot with a few fields) that may be written once only per unique user, and then have an adequate checksum system / redundancy to guarantee its integrity / availability. This does not seem very hard in theory tbh. We aren’t talking about continued access to update the data. One time. Read only thereafter. They need to do one simple thing but do it very well.
Hire the best and brightest. Make it transparent and redundant.
Fear should not stop us from progress.
Key point there: in theory. We don’t have any track record of being able to secure people’s data. Not in the public or private sectors. Feels like I’m in constant free credit monitoring because of some breach by a random Russian kid. I’m also not sure it’s progress? Sure, it’s voting by screen and not paper. I’m just not convinced that’s progress other than using a more sophisticated technology. Let’s at least have one election using online voting that has actually worked before saying let’s all do it.
I think a better way is universal mail-in voting, like a bunch of states out west have done for years. It doesn’t depend on developing entire new systems, doesn’t require everyone to have a stable internet connection, is secure (especially with the 2 envelope system), and it’s accurate.
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I live in Colorado and we have mail-in voting. I received my ballot about 3 weeks before the election, filled it out, and took it to a nearby drop-box. It was very simple and easy. You can also mail your ballot in.
I used ballottrax to track the status of my ballot. It told me when my ballot had been sent to me through mail (Oct 9th), when it had been received after I turned it into the drop-box (Oct 14th), and when it had been accepted (Oct 14th).
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@FarmerJayhawk it most definitely is progress. It relies on much more stable, cheaper means of transportation of data. It means that upgrades in process / ballot contents could be deployed much more quickly and without enormous costs (see removal of dead people from the ballot). It cracks the door on direct democracy. What do you think about direct democracy? Do you believe people can and will make informed choices when entrusted with more opportunities to vote on policy? Do you think that is a good thing? I do, and I do again. There will take some learning and have hiccups but yes, I believe in the people.
As far as mail in being better because people don’t have computers, what about people who don’t have homes? Do you need an address to get mailed a ballot? There should always be a physical backup solution just as absentee has been our backup to date.
I only say “in theory” because there are those who know more than me about this, but I have confidence that it can be done. I fully agree we can roll this out on a smaller scale and build up, but ultimately I don’t think that security is what will hold us back from getting there.
I would think that just as banks have fraud detection looking for anomolyous data, you would use machine learning to identify potential fraudulent voting as votes are cast. Even analog votes now should be used as training models for fraud detection in eventual online systems.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk it most definitely is progress. It relies on much more stable, cheaper means of transportation of data. It means that upgrades in process / ballot contents could be deployed much more quickly and without enormous costs (see removal of dead people from the ballot). It cracks the door on direct democracy. What do you think about direct democracy? Do you believe people can and will make informed choices when entrusted with more opportunities to vote on policy? Do you think that is a good thing? I do, and I do again. There will take some learning and have hiccups but yes, I believe in the people.
As far as mail in being better because people don’t have computers, what about people who don’t have homes? Do you need an address to get mailed a ballot? There should always be a physical backup solution just as absentee has been our backup to date.
I only say “in theory” because there are those who know more than me about this, but I have confidence that it can be done. I fully agree we can roll this out on a smaller scale and build up, but ultimately I don’t think that security is what will hold us back from getting there.
I would think that just as banks have fraud detection looking for anomolyous data, you would use machine learning to identify potential fraudulent voting as votes are cast. Even analog votes now should be used as training models for fraud detection in eventual online systems.
Very much not a fan of direct democracy. I hate ballot referenda and wish we’d just get rid of them. The language is usually very confusing (like voting yes actually means no and the like), and voters generally aren’t familiar with the issue on the ballot. Half of American adults can’t even name all three branches of government, so I definitely don’t trust the electorate to vote on complicated matters of policy. And I say that as an instructor in a school of public policy. Even students routinely get basic things wrong about how things work (e.g. a common exam answer is “the Supreme Court should say thing X is unconstitutional.” Well, they can’t just do that.
Can you imagine getting Americans up to speed on a really complex, convoluted piece of legislation like the ACA, when most people can’t even tell you the difference between a copay and deductible or average vs. marginal tax rates? Or Dodd-Frank, which regulated markets most people don’t even know exist, let alone understand? I’m perfectly happy entrusting to elected representatives with the responsibility to represent my interests. Even as a policy guy, I don’t know every issue and don’t have the time to dig into a lot of them. When it was my full time job, I could keep a closer eye on things but frankly Americans have better, healthier things to do than politics.
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@FarmerJayhawk I think this is where the governing body needs to curate the content better, determining what items their constituents would would want a direct say on and use very clear and deliberate language. This requires the elected official to have a desire to represent a majority of his constituents and not just his party’s view, obviously.
I honestly have no idea about the process of how referenda end up on the ballot now. I agree the language seems deliberately confusing and vague.
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I would think that not obstructing the will of the people by partisan politics and being able to call on a popular vote ad hoc whenever it made sense in clear, concise, meaningful terms (by the online system I’m proposing) should be a serious feather in a politicians cap when seeking reelection and a wonderful way to break down partisanism.
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What a sad speech from POTUS. He’s going to incite violence.
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Well. Now would be a good time for Yertle The Turtle to show his spine and how unevil he is and denounce Trumps attempts to incite a Civil War.
Not hide in his shell. Denounce it.
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Listening to Rick Santorum pretend to have a heart by admitting facts that he conveniently ignored for the last 24 hours…
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Listening to Rick Santorum
Here’s your problem.
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Well is it not possible to find a Republican politician right now with the integrity to say loudly that Trump is divisive, a liar, and anti-democratic? I don’t think it is, because to do so means leaving themselves vulnerable.
Pathetic. There can only be better days ahead, but not for the Republicans if they can’t denounce deplorable actions like this in real time.
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Rep. Kenzinger had a strong statement. Sen. Sasse as well.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Rep. Kenzinger had a strong statement. Sen. Sasse as well.
Thanks for this. I will check it out. Glimmer of hope.
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Some guys who voted not to impeach. Great
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They also don’t directly denounce the President. Say his name.
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More memes? Hell yeah.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
They also don’t directly denounce the President. Say his name.
Ask and ye shall receive. https://twitter.com/larryhogan/status/1324507449286676484?s=21
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@FarmerJayhawk very nice. Liked and commented.
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I do think you’ll see R’s dump Trump like a bad habit as this thing is increasingly dire for him. Georgia looks gone, Nevada is gone, and then PA, AZ don’t matter. Though Biden will eventually win them both.
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@FarmerJayhawk I’m skeptical. I think it’s going to be very hard to divorce themselves from 69 million votes. I doubt there are many direct public denouncements.
If they do, they’ll be likely to fall in line when he runs again in 2024 as it has been reported he would do, or when Don Jr or some equivalent guy pulls into town with a similar act.
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@approxinfinity just saying, zero prominent Republicans are supporting Trump’s bizarre claims. He’s increasingly isolated and we’re only 48 hours out.
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Georgia. What an amazing turnaround there for Democrats to get to 2 Senate runoffs. We’ll see how it plays out; that Jan 5th runoff will have both parties’ full attention.
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Pennsylvania should be done by morning. Trump is toast.
The runoffs will be wild. I think Perdue definitely wins (Ossoff is just bad) but Loeffler has a wild one. She’s less popular and up against a better candidate in Rev. Warnock
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More important maybe than Biden potentially taking Georgia is Perdue dropping below 50% to force a runoff. January 5th for the senate. I’m not too optimistic about getting both seats but at least there’s a chance.
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So currently Perdue has 2,448,369 and Ossoff has 2,347,307 with Shane Hazel, the Libertarian, getting 113,613.
2016, the Senate race: Republican 2,135,806, Democrat: 1,599,726, Libertarian: 162,260
Do you think the numbers on the runoff will be as juiced without Trump on the ticket? Who does that favor? I can’t imagine how intense the get-out-the-vote movement will be for a Senate race.
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If there is a silver lining here, either way, the American public will get the point hammered home without distraction that the Senate is the true seat of power in United States politics.
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Spanberger, my House Rep lost her shit on her fellow democrats on a call today, telling them to never use the word socialist again and to distance themselves from the defund the police movement: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/05/house-democrats-angry-over-election-losses-leaders-promises-answers/6179057002/
If you’ll recall, she was one of the House Democrats that called for impeachment, and I’m happy she won reelection.
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I can’t see D’s being that motivated. They got their main objective. How much appetite among lower propensity voters (especially the youths) to turn out for a Senate primary in January?
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Spanberger, my House Rep lost her shit on her fellow democrats on a call today, telling them to never use the word socialist again and to distance themselves from the defund the police movement: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/05/house-democrats-angry-over-election-losses-leaders-promises-answers/6179057002/
If you’ll recall, she was one of the House Democrats that called for impeachment, and I’m happy she won reelection.
She’s so, so right. A lot of the voters D’s really want, and lost ground with in 2020 vs. 2016, are more conservative than the liberal whites who run the party.
