Evaluating C5 - Stats
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Stats aren’t normally my thing, but I’ve been inspired by some on the site to look at things more closely, so there are a few that I’m not sure about. But here it goes for discussion or commentary.
All stats are from www.TeamRanking.com. I’ve cut it down to the C5 and tried to remove duplicate stats in various categories. I’ve color coded based on the following:
Generally: Green/Yellow are good. Red/Pink bad. Players are listed in the order of Avg Min/Game playing time.
Green highlighted means this was a team high category for the player (from among all players). Yellow highlighted was best within the C5 subset of players. Green number is best of the 5 within a negative category (ex. TO, PF)
Red Highlighted - Team High (all players) bad. Pink highlighting worst among the C5 subset in a negative category; red numbers is worst among the C5 subset.
Here is my best attempt at classifying mere counts of categories that each player has for Positive/Best & Negative/Worst with Team Hi categories called out in [brackets]:
Positives/Best (Per Min Stats):
JT - 3 categories (FT%, FTR%, TS%)
LL - 5 categories ( [Team Hi - RB/m, ORB/m, DRB/m], FG%, eFG%)
CB - 6 categories (Asst(T), 3PM/3PA/3P%, Steals/PF, PF/m
HM - 11 categories ( [Team Hi - Blk/m, Blk/PF, EFF, WIN] Ast/m (T), Ast/TO, Stl/PF, TO/m, GmSc, Blk/PF, DEF/PF)
CD - 5 categories ( [Team Hi - Pts/m, FGM/m, FGA/m], FTM/m, FTA/m)
Negatives/Worst (Per Min Stats):
JT - 6 categories (Pt/m, RB/m (t), FGM, FGA, EFF, GmScr)
LL- 3 categories (Blk/m, Blk/PF, DEF/PF)
CB- 6 categories (RB/m (T), FTM/m, FTA/m, FT%, FTA%, DRB/m)
HM- 3 categories (FG%, eFG%, TS%)
CD - 8 categories ([Team Hi - PF/m] Asst/m, Stl/m, TO/m, AS/TO, WIN, Stl/PF, ORB/m)
Keep in mind order of player stats is in allotted average min/game. Realize stats don’t tell the whole story, which a major point was made after TTU game about the efficacy of a screen for example. But realize also, that within the constrained resource pool (minutes), the concept of opportunity cost should be considered.
I’ll admit that I know very little about the WIN, TS%, and GmSc stats, but find that these composite stat roll ups, along with EFF are pretty much in the Hunter Mickelson positive section with a couple of those being TEAM HIGH numbers. Find it interesting that he dominates the Positives and is tied for team low in Negatives.
As far as Diallo, guess it’s not surprising about his playing time, he’s come into games in limited minutes and taken his shot and not gotten others into the game (until more recently at least) even though he has hit at a decent rate/min. However, he doesn’t lead in either True Shooting % or eFG% and his overall negative categories lead the C5 pack not to mention big contributor at PF/minute that brings him to the bench as much as probably anything.
Bragg, 3 of his Positive categories are related to shooting and hitting a few 3 pointers. At this point in the career and on this team, probably not where we need help.
As has been point of contention among the board members: Jamari trailer has the fewest statistical Positive categories and is tied at 2nd worst in Negative category stats count. He gets the most minutes / game. Therein lies the controversy amongst us clearly!
That’s it for my analysis for now. I think we all agree to an extent that having the number of relatively talented bodies in the C5 isn’t a bad thing and could be good at times. Playing time allocation for both short and long term goals can be hotly argued and has been!
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@Bwag Great contribution. Not just opinion, which is always welcome, but lots of juicy data. Numbers don’t tell the whole story, of course, but there is a reason that all pro sports are paying more attention to these kinds of metrics. In this case, the data seems to support what many of us have been saying for a long while now regarding the net overall contributions on the court of our bigs. Yes, these metrics don’t directly cover things like screens/hedges, blocking out and the like, but the do so indirectly in some of the efficiency metrics. Bottom line is how the team performs, both offensively and defensively, when certain players are in the game. To be clear, I’m glad that LL and JT are on the team and they provide important depth and can present match-up options. But, I many posters have suggested, the team seems to perform better when HM and CB are in the game (jury still out on CD), at least offensively, and the data seem to support this. Good stuff.
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I think the “best” of this C5 situation is the versatility we have. While none of the guys is a complete player, each brings something different, which then allows Self to shuffle his player deck to fit certain matchups. The chess game.
Bragg: is the heir apparent to the power-4 Scoring role held by Ellis. Bragg may surpass Ellis. Both arrived at KU with McD level talent. He may have more toughness about his persona, as evidenced in WUG than underclassman Ellis did. Ellis has really improved in his aggressive play. Bragg is a KY-level player that would be playing a ton of mpg, with the gamble he would be a serviceable starter for Calipari by late-SEC conf play. He’s long, he’s got swag…and he’s got that *headband". Reminds me of the Pearl-Era Tennessee-Headband-Athlete, except that Bragg arrives with more talent, and is absolutely a much brighter kid. Watch him next season BE the starter at the 4. Unless they snag him on pure potential in the draft…
Diallo: steep learning curve, gaining “feel”. Its not a free-for-all like the McDAA game was. SelfShow is more structured. But he is a very bright young man, honor student already, and highly motivated. Of course he’s had to start at the back of the pack thanks to yet-another-NCAA-shaft-job (Self has gotta be raw in places we dare not say…). Diallo’s innate quickness, coupled with knowledge of where to be, will make him contend for starter next season. If they don’t take him on pure potential in the draft…
Traylor: Kid has given his heart and soul, and as his mpg have gone down this year, he has outwardly remained a great soldier for us. A true warrior, with mediocre stats, yet a penchant for timely plays here and there. He showed more offensive versatility in the past 2 seasons than he is showing now, simply because we needed him to. It is true that Self’s favoring Traylor’s grit and seniority, is thus causing Bragg/Diallo to not be on the Kentucky-frosh-development plan. But then, this is not Calipari’s team–period. And, there is that tidbit where Traylor helped beat Duke in MSG, then literally saved our ass in the Dance against WKU, saving the ignominy of a 1st round bounce. Jamari’s story is actually bigger than just plain basketball. Jayhawk thru & thru forever. You always find a place for a warrior who gives heart and soul.
Lucas: Big, knows the offense, consistently gives schizophrenic performances. Gets position, post-seal, yet finishes with bucket on inconsistent basis. Also still dialing in how not to get an illegal screen call. But he has improved a bit from last season. O-fer’s in the scoring column are the biggest hindrance to his playability. Kruger gambled on it, and Lucas actually made OU pay. That is a positive sign for this season. Has shown more bounce and hops the last 2 games than I have seen in his 3+ years. He returns next season to battle for a starting spot against Coleby or Diallo. FT’s better. There is the fact that if a kid gets to keep getting real game experience, he will get better.
Coleby: What would have been the perfect transfer sit-out season to learn SelfBall, instead is spent rehabbing his knee injury. He could have been gaining practice-speed chemistry with his new team, but alas, fate…At 6’9, 260lbs, he could be a monster, if coached-up. Assume motivation, as he came to KU on a mission. Definite rotational sub next season, with possible monster season the following year?
Mickelson: Final chance. Crowded position. Lanky, athletic, but evidently doesn’t do well with physicality. Seems a bit frantic to contribute offensively, almost like he sees the Shadow of The Quick Hook, always hovering over the poor kid. He too came to KU on a mission. Simply lacks the brawn to do Self’s bidding. Weighs no more than Ellis. Wayne Selden may outweigh Hunter. He could be a stretch 4, likely a more natural skillset position for him, but he is left to man the 5, but is actually more of a finesse player than the KU “5” requires.
Next season could have a solid 4man post presence of Bragg, Diallo, Coleby, and Lucas. Everybody is 6’9 or 6’10. 2 of the guys are 240+lbs.
Or, early exits to NBA draft could wreck that very competent, experienced lineup projection…
**
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@ralster Great take on Mari. In @jaybate-1.0 parlance, he’s the grunt you’d pick when the fighting gets tough.
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Looking at a couple of the Offensive stats in production without reference to subsets.
Of the big men, Cheick edges Perry out shooting categories on a % basis, but obviously overall utilization nullifies impact in what we’ve seen so far. But in Pts/min:
Cheick as noted leads team .57 [low utilization]
Perry .56
Seldon .55
Greene .53
Svi (.48 ) Mason & Bragg (.41) follow
If you look at FGM/min though (after Cheick again), the order is Perry & Selden (.20), Bragg (.19), Svi (.17), Vick (.15), Lucas & Mason & Greene (.14); The reason Greene is top 3* in Pts/min is he gets to the FT line much more often than anyone else besides Traylor on a per minute basis (.788 FTA/FGA). Traylor is really team high (at .880 FTA/FGA) while his Pts/min is a team low .23 on low attempts and makes while his decent FT% gives him some lift.
My overall take: Perry doesn’t necessarily dominate stats, he is at or near the top in key Offensive categories with a high utilization rate. Bragg and Diallo show similar types of activeness and effectiveness with more down sides at this point in their development.
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@brooksmd My only question is if Mickelson was given like minutes, would we see his offensive categories come up with the upside of his overall performance reflected in the wide range of stats.
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Good thread. Thanks for putting in the energy!
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@Bwag might foul out?
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@Crimsonorblue22 true. He’s had some bad fouls, but almost like the young guys, I think he just needs some more playing time so he’s not trying so hard. He’s either not gotten much of a chance last couple of years, or had a relatively quick hook other than the 2nd half against (I can’t recall which team after nearly a bottle of Champagne mixed into a coctail with St Germaine and Contreau).
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@drgnslayr My wife asked, “what have you been doing?” Me: “Just messing around.” I’ve been sucked in, too much on this site! Waiting for Godot, I mean @HighEliteMajor.
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@Bwag he looked really bad against OU. Have you been to a game at AFH? Just wondered.
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@Crimsonorblue22 I worked for the athletic department for 5-6 years and was a student from 82-86 (didn’t go to many games in that time period though I recall a Sunday game against Notre Dame my Sr. year which of course, was the year that we should have won it all). Had a pass to all athletic events while I was working there ('90-'95) except maybe the last part of it when the IRS said it needed to be taxed as a benefit.
So, went to quite a few games. Lived about 3 or 4 blocks from campus so what I often did is watch the first half on TV and then walk to AFH as time ran out in the half and got a “seat” standing behind one of the goals for the 2nd half. Was often in the ESPN crowd shots as they came back to the game in the 2nd half!
I got to travel with the team to the inaugural Wooden Classic in Pasadena “The Pond”. Ate with Bob and Max at the post game dinner! Sat next to Matt Doherty’s wife at the game who is/was a model! Lots of good memories… I worked with many of the players while I was there in early 90’s. Greg O, lifted my ~2 year old son up to a basket in the Field House to “dunk” the basketball. Because I was pretty much poor at the time, Calvin Rayford gave me a pair of his b-ball shoes…the 5’6" dude had the same size feet as me at about 5’ 11"! @jaybate-1.0 could probably remind me if those were Nike’s or Adidas…I don’t recall now, but it was during the William’s era.
We come up every year or so and go to a game still, usually the December games. Brought a buddy from MI up to see MI lose to us several years back. Was at the UCLA game with my wife where we were down something like 15 at half and came back in the 2nd half to beat them by 15 (?)!
So been to some good and exciting games over the years. Lived in Lawrence for 20+ years including school time.
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@Bwag good times! Where are you now?
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@Crimsonorblue22 Northwest Arkansas…just across the Mizery border. Probably partly why I want Hunter to do so well. Have listened to all the Razorback fans here bad-mouth him from when he was at UoA. Told them Self would make him a star…still hoping just to poke them in the eye down here.
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@Bwag did you know about the singer, craig Strickland?
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@Crimsonorblue22 The guy that died duck hunting in OK? Friends with one of my daughter’s friend if that is him.
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“My wife asked, “what have you been doing?” Me: “Just messing around.””
Yeah… you are going to have to come up with a better line. I tried that and my wife knew right away. I’m supposed to be working… ha…
You’ve been sucked in… enjoy the ride!
I think we have all learned a lot about KU basketball and basketball in general through this site. I know I’ve picked up a plethora of information on the game. Almost every day it feels like I am having a good conversation with a bunch of top notch coaches.
Easily… this is the best basketball site I visit!
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@drgnslayr I’m no coach…I’m a Rec league player…years ago.
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@Bwag figured you might. My son and his gf meet the band this past summer. Really sad!
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The William’s years at KU were either Nike or Nike Jordan to the best of my recollection, but I could be wrong, because there were some brands rising and falling during Roy’s KU ERA. Roy on Dean’s staff actually dates back to the origins of the Dean-Michael-Sonny-Phil days, or what I like to call the early Shoe World Order.
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I forgot! Is Landen back next season?
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@jaybate-1.0 yes
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@Bwag Its unbelievable to me, but you said you had a pass to all KU athletic events when you worked for the athletic dept, but then the IRS said it “needed to be taxed as a benefit” (!!?)
That just threw me, as I’m not sure how one arrives at a dollar amount for that? And, how would a game-pass actually get discovered by the IRS? And if KU put some value on it and reported it to the IRS, then you’d be paying taxes on a dollar amount, which you technically never received (you never had a choice to spend that money). You’d actually have to go into your personal funds to pay the % taxes on that dollar amt? (kind of like winning a car, which means you have to cover the fed tax out-of-pocket?) Just plain odd, imho…
I’m not a fan of the IRS tax code, and this seemed unfair to you.
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Interesting about the tickets as taxable income. My wife (a professor) was on the Athletics board for three years at the University of Tennessee, and she received two sets of season tickets to football, mens BB and womens BB. 2007-2009-ish years.
I know for a fact she didn’t get a 1099 MISC, but – just our of curiosity – sometime I’ll have to go back and check her W2s to see if there was a withholding for the ticket value.
Not THAT big a deal anyway. The fed tax paid would be less than buying tickets on the street from a scalper to a few games a year (which we had done in previous years).
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@DanR my son always tells me his tickets aren’t free. Pretty sure he’s taxed. I’ll ask, he’s wife’s a CPA.
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“I’m no coach…I’m a Rec league player…years ago.”
Nothing wrong with that… TT’s starting big man is a walk-on from rec league!
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@Crimsonorblue22 I know at KU they definitely are taxable income. I’m just curious if UT/ SEC used some loophole to get around it which wouldn’t surprise me one iota.
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Very interesting. As an Engineer, I am by definition a numbers person, but number have to be looked at and in context.
As you mentioned some stats for some of the player are somewhat irrelevant, such 3 pt. shooting for Bragg (at this time), since this not an area in which he is really expected to participate actively because of the plethora of capable KU players has in this area; however, this might be valuable in the future when he can become a stretch 4 that is now so popular.
Also, for the players that play only limited minutes, the number can be deceiving, For example, Greene can come in for a couple of minutes, hit 2 quick 3s and his numbers would be through the roof…or Hunter can play 4 or 5 minutes, get 2 or 3 quick fouls and his numbers would go to the proverbial crapper. For players that play regularly over 20 minutes and have played most games, at this stage of the season the numbers would be pretty good indicators, since the stats become much better with a bigger sample. You will notice that noted sports statisticians such as Sagarin and Pomeroy caveat their rankings/models by indicating that it takes well into the season before their models are somewhat stable…
Last , I will mention a quote by George Gallup, of the Gallup Poll fame and one of the foremost statistician of our generation…
"Not everything that can be counted counts; and not everything that counts can be counted."
This is very much applicable to players like Traylor whose type of contribution many times cannot be measured but it is very valuable nonetheless.
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@ralster which is why I think the benefit went away.
We probably have one of the most aggressive/powerful tax agencies in the world. If you look at expats who aren’t planning to come back, many renounce their citizenship so IRS doesn’t hassle their foreign banks and all their accounts.
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@DanR I was a bit player and was on my way out anyway. Never dug into the details.
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@drgnslayr No one was ever scouting me for organized college ball…and that goes for the other rec teams…but I hustled, smiled and talked trash!
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@Bwag - great effort to put together the table. BTW, do you have a count for #dunks by C5?
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@pa_grape no. Believe have to have access to advanced analytic s
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@pa_grape no. Néed access to advanced analytic sites to get those breakdowns
