Do we go after more recruits?
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@jaybate-1.0 I was thinking we could a KU Jayhawks private airport, with a landing strip with our logo on it. I was thinking we could get Adidas to stick up some LCD signs where we could flash the player’s picture as they roll into the tarmac. There, we could have a small crowd cheering as they exit the plane. Then we pick them up with a KU themed Escalade with spinning wheels, with a hologram of Drake activated when they open the door.
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@Crimsonorblue22 He’s going to be great…I am pumped…
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I think as many recruits as possible should be offered. Bill Self recruits people who have the potential to play pro ball; I don’t know what he and the staff tell the recruits, but I expect he is honest. Both Beal and Wall said in interviews tonight that their coaches guaranteed them nothing. I think if Coach Self thinks a player has pro potential, does it really matter if he is a OAD, a TAD, or horror of horrors, a 3AD? I mean, what, 5-7 of the NC team got NBA contracts. Sasha landed an NBA contract, but asked out of it to play in his home country. Wiggins and Embiid are perfect examples: Wiggins was expected to be a OAD, and he was. When Coach Roberts spotted Embiid and pointed him out to Coach Self, they thought he would be a project. At that point, he was ranked about #100, and would have seemed to be a 3- or 4-year player, but after he committed to KU, he shot quickly into the Top 10. At that point, I was thinking TAD, but he turned out to be a OAD. Wayne was projected as a OAD. If he develops, should it matter if he stays even 3 years, as long as he develops and gets to the NBA? Coach Self has said he expects Brannen Greene to play in the NBA. If it takes 3 years for him to develop, should that be discouraging to him?
With the juggling of multiple good players, many may wonder if they will have the durability for the NBA schedule, but many first and second year players have spot roles off the bench, giving them a chance to adjust to the rigors of a pro season.
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@KUSTEVE Drew actually used to pick up the recruits in an escalade with spinning wheels.
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@wrwlumpy When Roy was still here one of his providers of transportation to staff (complimentary of course) was Crown Chevrolet on South Iowa. I bought 2 trucks & 1 car there in about 6 months, one of which was a loaded black Tahoe that had been demo’ed to NFL HOFer Willie Lanier. Most of the autos comp’ed out to big shots by a dealer have every bell & whistle available; digital touch screens, Bose stereos, bun warmers, etc. List price on this one was around 48K & that not only was a long while back, but was one helluva truck to boot. I think Bill & staff are driving Lincolns now but haven’t paid much attention to that in recent years. But rest assured not many head coaches in D1 are scrunching their butt into a Corrolla-maybe their kids are, but dealerships write off much of that expense for advertising & cut very few corners. I wouldn’t be surprised if some get don’t cars equipped with hyd or pneumatic lift kits, powered woofers & tweeters, or more. Of course certainly none would have a the optional table dancer? LOL…I wonder if maybe Drew was over the top with ermine mud flaps & curb feelers on that Caddy? Oh I forgot, feelers have now been replaced by digital cameras…
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@globaljaybird I can’t wait till we get to the OGAD rule.
One GAME and Done
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I don’t want any more perimeter players, not even Brown, even if we lose Oubre.
Sophomore Svi/Junior Greene will contribute more and have better TEAM chemistry than OAD Freshmen Brown.
We could really use another post player (Diello or Zimmerman) but I’m not losing sleep if we don’t get anyone either. Even if Cliff leaves, you have the same front court with another year of experience and Bragg replaces Cliff. If Cliff does come back, even better.
PS If freshman Wiggins couldn’t carry us to the promised land; freshman Brown won’t either.
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I agree with you we have no idea what either might do next year. Self has had pretty good success with bringing in OAD wings so you would have to think Brown has a shot to dominate from day 1. The only reason he isn’t the #1 recruit is because Simmons is a beast and dominated HS kids. Brown isn’t a finished product but he’s in the same mold as other elite wings. Other than shooting to me, he’s an upgrade over Greene.
Ranking the players still available by need: 1)Diallo 2)Zimmerman 3)Brown 4) Upperclassmen Transfer 5)Dorsey 6) Maker/Rabb 7)Ingram
Diallo to me is the biggest need, developmental big with shotblocking/rebounding skills. I see him as a 3 year player with his offense needing a lot of work.
Zimmerman is combo of everything and likely OAD.
Brown is a OAD wing with Wiggins like Athleticism.
I have Transfer at 4, nobody seems to be talking about taking a 1 year graduate transfer like Tarik Black or someone who has to sit a year and develop and play in 2016. Especially the bigs as we will have 3 Senior’s.
Dorsey would be a great pickup to get a top 30 guard that can learn from Mason/Graham and Selden next year. Would be a great backup or potential starter down the road to replace Selden.
I have Maker/Rabb at 6 because 1 we don’t know yet if Maker will reclassify. We are one of the 3-4 schools recruiting him the hardest but with UK right there what confidence can you have we could get him. Rabb has said he will visit for a game but everything I’ve seen with him is he will stay on west coast. Maybe I’m wrong, Rabb & Zimmerman have played together for years if we landed 1 we could get both?
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@FarSideHawk - I agree completely on the perimeter players. If Oubre leaves, and everyone else stays, I prefer that over adding any perimeter player on the board.
Self of course is in a tough spot. He doesn’t know who will be back.
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@drgnslayr said:
I hope we recruit CAREFULLY!
More is not always better. If we oversign at one position and have weaknesses at another, we are bound to reduce our chances in March.
I really want Zim!
If we just land him, I’d say we had a great recruiting year… and that is regardless who we lose early.
That doesn’t mean I would have a problem landing a couple more players. I’d just be careful not to lose some of the talent we have.
It isn’t always a great thing to recruit potential at the loss of experience.
I’m kind of tired of being one of the youngest teams in America, AGAIN!
We need a balance. Some OAD-quality players mixed in with experienced quality players.
I am starting to see the possibility of losing Kelly. If that is the case, we have guys that can slip into the 3… but we won’t have that star swing 3. I wouldn’t mind landing one of those!
Part of it is about who will be available. I know Self wants Thon Maker. Does anyone know if he got his reclassification?
Where does that guy play? 7-foot PG? I can’t really see him pinned into the low post. The guy has freakish talent, but does landing him just mean another media circus and everyone having to placate their own ambitions for the star recruit?
Texas has a 7 foot star that isn’t pinned to the post and their offense is a mish mosh mess right now with everyone out of sync. Nice to have as a “hey, look at that guy” but not sure it really makes for good team basketball overall. KU does well to have a nice balance at all points in the game; a good post big, a big that can hit mid- to deep, solid wings that can balance between the deep ball and slashing to the rim to draw fouls, a lethal SG and a PG that can drive the bus.
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If you are taking about Myles Turner, he always said he wanted to play a stretch 4 or 5 and be a face up type of player, much like a Dirk Nowitzki and not a back to the basket players like most 7 footers. I thought he felt KU did not offer that opportunity.
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@JayHawkFanToo So, if Turner would have come to Kansas, where would we be? Maybe not talking about outside-in.
I think you’re correct. He had the stretch 4/5 on his mind. Dirk is a good example.
If he’d come to Kansas, he would have gotten major back to the basket work. I’m not really sure how that would have harmed his “stretch” game. Getting major back to the basket work would have only expanded his game and made him a better, more well rounded player. And he would have had many opportunities to “stretch.”
And maybe we aren’t changing our approach. Maybe all of this works out for the best. But I think Turner could have fit here very nicely, even if he apparently didn’t.
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I believe there has to be some continuity between seasons which comes from the 3-4 year players. I would like to see a footer recruited, one with reasonable athleticism but not a OAD or TAD. Lets say a Jeff Withey type, one that has to develop but when they do become quite serviceable as a JR and potential starter as a SR. While developing they provide a valuable service on the practice squad as an added bonus.
Not saying I am against the OAD/TAD players just that there is a benefit to 3-4 year players that is a bit less tangible.
AND Hello all, glad to find where the people talking KUBALL instead of having petty fights over random tirades disappeared too!
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No question that improving his back to the basket skills would have made him a much, much better rounded player, but if I understand correctly, he does not like playing back to the basket and prefers the face up game and Texas offered that to him and KU did not. As you know, Coach Self does not “guarantee” playing time and much less style of play; players have to earn playing time and play the system Coach Self has set for the season, usually the High-Low.
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“Texas has a 7 foot star that isn’t pinned to the post and their offense is a mish mosh mess right now with everyone out of sync.”
I mentioned long ago that Myles may not have helped us. Sort of depends on his mindset. His real desire is to be a big 3 at the next level. His goal is to be a bigger version of Kevin Durant, his long-time idle.
He’s a long ways from having the skill set of Kevin Durant. But I’ve been amazed at how much body size he has put on in a short time. He’s starting to look more like a post player all the time, whether he wants to or not.
I don’t think people in here realize how important it is for Perry to hit some 3s. Every time Perry hits a 3 he makes a statement for the Kansas recruitment of big men… especially those who think they have guard-like skills. Come to Kansas and we’ll give you the outside if you can handle it!
I continue to wonder what our team would be like with Myles as a Jayhawk. Just because Texas’ offense is a big mess doesn’t mean it would be that way at Kansas had he chosen to come here.
I really like Rick Barnes as a person. He’s probably the nicest coach in the Big 12. But I feel the same as many feel, that he doesn’t maximize the talent he is blessed with.
Even though we always want to beat Texas… it is better for Kansas if the Big 12 starts producing winners besides Kansas (in March). So I support all the Big 12 teams except when they play us.
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@Kubie Welcome Kubie and nice post. Have a cold
with me.
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@drgnslayr I’m really not trying to make fun of Turner, but does anyone else think he looks like Steve Urkel? If Steve could run, I think they would run like each other, too. Ewww, I’m not very nice!!
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Uncanny that you discovered the resemblance… haha… YES, I see it!
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@Crimsonorblue22 Didn’t Aaron Miles looked like Rudy Huxtable from the Bill Cosby show?
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@globaljaybird Rick Pitino’s demo from his Lexus dealership in Louisville.
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@wrwlumpy I’m tellin ya, the car moguls spare no expense-it’s an advertising tax write off for many. Think a few years back some do-gooder in Lawrence raised hell cause all the coaches drove cars with dealer tags & felt as that was an “improper benefit” that other prof & administrators were not receiving. So maybe they have to put real tags on their wheels now-go figure.
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@globaljaybird Yeah, give me a fully loaded Escalade and see how fast I make it down to DMV for tags.
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@brooksmd Tags is a bargain. Now the insurance & taxes? Whew !
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@jaybate-1.0 Coach Self wants another ring and banner to hang in AFH. In addition to your prediction Jaybate, I raise you that HCBS will get his next ring in 2-4 years. Final Four appearance maybe even sooner.
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@Crimsonorblue22 Haha. Thats hilarious. My daugher said that same thing watching the game last evening. “Is it me, or does that guy look like Erkel?” I said yeah… On lots of steriods.
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@cragarhawk I can’t describe the way he runs and not be rude, so everyone just watch him.
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My kids are playing basketball right now. One Jr high, one High school. Cant recall which one was playing the other night. Doesnt matter. The point is… There was an official that looked and ran like Beldar Conehead(Dan Akroyd) from Coneheads. If ya can picture that. I couldnt take the guy seriously… One of the funniest things ive seen
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@JayHawkFanToo BG diff/really no comparison being coached by Bill Self or Rick Barnes. More Kool aide barkeep !! LOL
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I watched Jaleel White, aka Steve Urkel, in a celebrity basketball match and he was nothing like his TV persona, he was actually a pretty decent player. Maybe this is a video of Turner’s early years…:)
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@globaljaybird
Most top players/kids that age think they are good enough to go to the NBA and don’t need any coaching…of course they are wrong, but good luck getting them to agree. This is why Calipari gets top players, by promising perks rather than coaching.
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Yes i think you must be correct. I dont why they didnt have a link to this recruiting video on rivals during his recruitment. Haha
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@JayHawkFanToo hilarious!!! Thx!!
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This is a bit long but it is nice to see that we are supposedly this involved on so many recruits.
Kansas finally got on the board in the 2015 class on Thursday, when five-star forward Carlton Bragg announced his commitment to the Jayhawks (after initially saying Kentucky).
There probably wasn’t any real concern in Lawrence about the lack of commitments in the senior class, but there is a segment of the Jayhawks fan base that breathed a slight sigh of relief late last week.
Now, where does Kansas go from here?
The Jayhawks have the No. 36-ranked recruiting class in the country, but expect that number to improve dramatically over the next few months. There is still plenty left to be decided in the 2015 class, with seven of the top 10 players still uncommitted, along with three other five-star players.
And Kansas just happens to be involved with at least six of those remaining five-star prospects, as well as another top-35 prospect. So how might the Jayhawks go about finalizing this class?
Jaylen Brown (No. 2): This one is expected to drag out until after the high school season is finished. Brown isn’t tipping his hand one way or another, but Kansas is in very good shape after getting an official visit in the fall. UCLA, Kentucky and North Carolina are also in strong spots, while in-state options Georgia and Georgia Tech aren’t going anywhere.
Malik Newman (No. 3): The Jayhawks have picked up momentum in this one, especially after Kentucky landed a commitment in November from Isaiah Briscoe (No. 13) – on top of the Wildcats likely returning at least two of their four current guards. Kentucky is far from giving up, though. In-state schools Mississippi and Mississippi State are also in the mix.
Ivan Rabb (No. 5): Kansas might be playing catch-up for Rabb, as local school California has done a terrific job so far with the 6-foot-10 power forward. Rabb also visited Kentucky, and Arizona is still there despite losing some of the momentum it had early in the recruitment.
Cheick Diallo (No. 7): Kansas has been in the driver’s seat or the co-driver’s seat in Diallo’s recruitment for most of the past year, along with Iowa State. Kentucky has made a push, too. Diallo is another player who won’t make a decision in the near future, likely waiting to see what happens with the other dominoes.
Stephen Zimmerman (No. 10): This recruitment has changed so much, but Kansas is the pick on RecruitingNation’s Hot Board. He’s also visited Kentucky, UCLA and Arizona, while UNLV gets a boost because of proximity. Zimmerman’s recruitment will continue to take twists and turns.
Brandon Ingram (No. 12): The prevailing thought for much of Ingram’s recruitment was that he would stay in the state of North Carolina, either at North Carolina or Duke. Since visiting Kansas in the fall, though, the Jayhawks have really made up some ground on the in-state options.
Tyler Dorsey (No. 33): In the fall, it looked as if Dorsey would decide early – but he chose to prolong his recruitment. Kansas had the early buzz after Dorsey’s decommitment from Arizona, but California picked up plenty of momentum in the fall and has made him a priority moving forward. The Jayhawks are behind in this one.
There are a couple of other storylines to watch in relation to Kansas’ recruiting. The Jayhawks have made an effort to get back in the mix for Thomas Bryant (No. 16), who was down to Missouri, Indiana and Syracuse before adding Kentucky to his list recently. Kansas would obviously be playing catch-up for the 6-foot-10 big man. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are also one of the two schools – along with Kentucky – thought to be in good shape for 2016 stud Thon Maker. There has been talk of Maker reclassifying; should that happen, expect Kansas to be in play for his services.
Kansas – and the prospects it is pursuing – might have to wait and see how many spots the Jayhawks do have for next season. Kelly Oubre, Cliff Alexander and Wayne Selden are all early-entry NBA candidates. An inconsistent couple of months from each player has left their immediate future up in the air. The common thought is still that Oubre and Alexander will leave, meaning Bill Self could reel in up to three more players.
Of course, there’s the risk of putting so many eggs in the spring recruiting basket – and the very slim chance that Kansas strikes out on all of its primary targets and has to settle for lesser players to fill spots out of desperation. If three players leave Lawrence early and the Jayhawks miss most of its remaining recruiting targets, that would be a disaster scenario. It’s extremely unlikely, though.
Will Bragg’s commitment create any dominoes for the other big men on Kansas’ wish list? He’s capable of playing alongside most post players because of his ability to step outside and knock down 3-pointers, so it might not make a difference just yet. Should the Jayhawks bring in another big man, though, that likely forces the other remaining power forwards and centers to go elsewhere.
When all the dust settles, Kansas will likely have one of the best recruiting classes in the country, the third-straight season Self has brought in a top-10 group.
Shortly after Bragg made his announcement, a reporter at his news conference asked him whether other big-time recruits would join him in a Jayhawks uniform.
His answer: “I hope so.”
All signs point to Bragg being correct.
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@JhawkAlum said:
Great insight fellas. I stand corrected. I just hate having players like Greene who have been patient, payed their dues, and worked hard but are left on the outside looking in.
Greene has been given AMPLE rope to earn that spot and has largely hung himself with it. If he’s the best player available then he’ll play. I love that players have to earn their time versus having it gifted to them for nothing more than time served.
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15 players currently on the roster.
11 players with scholarship.
2 soft scholarships from transfers (Frankamp and White) likely being used by walk-ons Garret and Pollard and can be made available.
2 non- scholarship players - Self and Manning, unlikely they will get one
Garret is a senior and his schoolie, if he is using Frankamp’s, will be available at the end of the semester anyway. So, the scholarship for Bragg is available even in no one leaves, and the one being held by Pollard can also be made available. I am sure that they would find a way to help him if they pull the schoolie.
In short, KU will have one more scholarship available even if no one leaves the program. There would also be one scholarship available for every player that leaves for the NBA or transfers. Mickelson is in his fourth year in college, although he is considered a red shirt junior and would be eligible to play immediately at another school if he “chooses” to transfer (I think). I believe this the same might apply tor Lucas (a good student), and he might have 2 years of eligibility left, although I am not sure how it would work for player that graduates in 3 years but because he sat one season would be only a red shirt junior. Last, if Perry graduates after this semester (he is also a very good student), he would be eligible to play without wait, but I would be shocked if he transfers.
At this time and based on performance to date, the only player with a good chance of leaving is Oubre, which BTW his dad indicated could stay more than one year if needed. We should have a better idea towards the end of the season, so it is not a bad thing that prospects are waiting to commit…maybe the KU situation is driving that train.
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How many top 10 picks come back? The list is slim. That is the facts with Oubre. This is all while starting less than 10 games and averaging 7pts per game. His ceiling only goes higher from here for the rest of the season. With recruiting we should act like he’s gone and try like heck to sign Jaylen Brown. But we are only 15 games in so we should really try and enjoy him while we have him.
With Cliff its less profound. At the beginning of the year he was as good as gone, then the season started. He hasn’t started and his post skills have been exposed. So he’s slid to the back end of the first round. Now with 20+ games left he has a chance to improve on his weaknesses. If he doesn’t I think he may come back although having Bragg signed just further pushes him towards the draft. Self isn’t going to tell any 1st round picks to stay, its not how he does things.
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Coach Self explained before that he and his staff have connections with NBA scouts and do a detailed analysis for each player considering entering the draft to assess where they will go. For example Marcus was shoo in to go to the League and after they did the evaluation they determined that Markiff was a borderline lottery pick, so he decide to go as well and turned out they both were lottery picks
After the season is over, Coach Self and staff will go through the same exercise for players with NBA potential which at this time are Oubre, Alexander, Ellis, Selden and Traylor. Depending on how the rest of the season develops, particularly in March, one or more players might decide to try the draft and at least, they will have the numbers to make an informed decision.
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True this will happen at the end. The only serious discussions will be had with his freshman I believe. Perry hasn’t played well enough to make the nba this year. Selden has had far and few between good games that hes completely off the radar now, those are the facts with them. Mason has by far outplayed them and is getting no attention because of his size. He has played like he could have a good future somewhere.
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The roster math is a bit complicated, but I think we will sign four this Spring.
13 available scholarships
PG (2): Mason, Graham - no changes here. May add another player, but if so, it’s likely to be a combo player.
SG/SF (3): Selden, Svi, Greene - I consider Oubre gone. I think Selden is back unless he absolutely goes berserk over the next couple of months. If so, I am okay with him leaving because there’s a good chance that means we have added another title to the trophy case.
PF/C (6): Alexander, Ellis, Lucas, Mickelson, Traylor, Bragg - Lots of players here. For that reason, I think the attention to add players shifts to the perimeter. Unless Alexander is also jumping to the NBA (less than 50% chance right now), there’s really not a spot for another guy.
That’s 11, as @JayHawkFanToo pointed out.
That gives us 2 more scholarships for sure, but as pointed out above, we may have some flexibility with Lucas and Mickelson as far as their scholarship situation and class situation. That’s where I think we may add a fourth guy.
As I said when I reviewed Tyler Dorsey, I like him significantly more as a combo guard than as a shooting guard. If he can slide over and play some point, I am much higher on him. He’s just not big enough or athletic enough to really be an impact 2 guard. I worry that he ends up being more like Royce Woolridge and transfers if he tries to stay at the 2.
The big question surrounds Brown and Newman. We are chasing both. We need to get one to solidify the perimeter scoring. Brown is the better overall player, but Newman may be a more dynamic scorer. The other plus with Newman is that you might get lucky and have him return as a sophomore because at 6-3, he’s not really an NBA 2 guard. He would need to slide over and play at least some PG to be effective in the NBA. That could mean 2 collegiate seasons with an amazing overall talent. Newman has a lot of similarities to fellow Mississippian Monta Ellis as far as body size, ability to score, etc. Ellis was a bit more reliant on speed, whereas Newman is more explosive athletically, but there is the potential that Newman is a difference maker in college because he won’t be undersized on the wing.
If I had to pick a guy in the current recruiting class that could score 40 in a game if he had to, Newman would be the first pick, with Zimmerman second, Brown third and Simmons fourth. Not saying that any of these guys are ball hogs, but they have the talent to get it going and shoot something like 12-17 from the floor with 10-12 points from the line type of game. Throw in a few threes and you’ve got close to 40. That’s a special type of talent.
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I think we are pretty secure from major disaster. Mason, Graham, Greene and Svi aren’t going anywhere so our perimeter is not terrible. Perry is likely to stay along with Traylor, adding Bragg plus hopeful improvement from either Mickleson or Lucas, leaves us in decent shape everywhere. Now it seems to me our recruiting goals should be an impact perimeter guy to provide depth if Selden or Oubre leave, plus at least one more big to avoid having to rely on Hunter or Landan for much.
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Nice breakdown of the roster.
If Alexander really does stay I say we pursue another big. Mickelson & Lucas are not starters. I don’t believe we can rely on them to ever become what we may have hoped from them. The other reason for signing at least 1 more big is that next year Ellis, Traylor, and Mickelson are gone anyway. If cliff stays and has a great season he’s bound for the NBA. You never know the impact Bragg may have. He’s not generally regarded as a OAD but you never know with a top 20 kid. You could potentially have just Lucas left after next year. So while we look deep in the front-court a serious hole opens up in 16-17. My perfect Scenario is sign Diallo and use one of the remaining slots on a PF/C transfer who can sit out the year. If we get lucky and either Dorsey/Newman/Brown comes to KU our perimeter is absolutely loaded regardless of Selden’s decision. Best case is he comes back again and tries to become a Junior monster. Lovett is still considering us and would be PG insurance possibly a redshirt candidate to stash away.
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I agree we need more recruits for 16/17 but I was just saying we have successfully avoided HEM’s apocalypse proposal. To me it seems we are maybe even off the merry-go-round some what with our solid young point guards and talent that is more likely to stay (Selden, Ellis, Greene, Svi) than go (Oubre and maybe Alexander depending on how he finishes the year). Bragg is borderline OAD. We have had good success landing 1 or 2 possible OAD’s in the spring. So basically I am saying, I’m not worried.
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We need a rim protector like we had with Aldrich, Withey and Embiid. Zimmerman would fit the bill unless Thon Maker becomes available. Thon Maker is expected to reclassify and would easily become the top ranked player, although there are lingering questions about his transfer to a Canadian HS and the relationship with his guardian Ed Smith that moved to Canada with him. UK, Indiana and Louisville appear to be in the lead, Indiana even offered a scholarship to his younger brother Matur Maker. We should know more the first part of February.
In a way, it is a good thing that KU has not filled the scholarships early since there are a number of quality players still available and some elite schools are already short on or out of scholarships altogether.
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I’d rather Thon didn’t reclassify and came in the Class of 2016 because that’s where our frontcourt hole opens up. As @BeddieKU23 said above, we will lose 3 frontcourt guys after next season at a minimum, with the possibility that Bragg and/or Alexander is also gone, meaning we will be very thin up front going into the 2016-2017 season. I’d rather have Maker in that class than in the current one because he’s almost certainly an OAD.
Looking around the recruiting landscape right now, the class has kind of filled out strangely. Every player ranked from 17 to 32 on the ESPN 100 is already committed. Of the players ranked 20-50 (the non-OAD high level recruits) only #33 SG Tyler Dorsey and #37 PF Ted Kapita (both of whom KU is recruiting) are not committed. Only 3 players in the 51-100 range are not committed.
However, 9 of the top 16, including 7 of the top 10 remain uncommitted. That means that some recruiting classes could get a whole lot better in a hurry. It also means that whoever doesn’t find a recruit in this game is going to be left really scrambling because there just isn’t anything close to comparable talent out there.
For example, if you are looking for a PF, there are 2 big time guys on the board in #5 Rabb and #7 Diallo. There’s a solid option in #37 Kapita. Miss on those three and you have #93 Shawntrez Davis. And that’s it. Four PF prospects in the top 100. Miss on those four and you’re looking at juco transfers, degree completed guys and non top 100 guys. If you need a PF that can play major minutes in a major conference next year, you have 3 guys, maybe 4 with Davis, depending on how he transitions. Everything else is a crapshoot.
If you’re looking for a PG, you are already out of luck. There’s not a single top 100 PG left.
If you need a center, you have options, but again, it’s all or nothing. You’re either landing an OAD prospect (#6 Diamond Stone, #8 Caleb Swanigan or #10 Stephen Zimmerman), you are grabbing #16 Thomas Bryant, or you are hoping Thon Maker reclassifies because there isn’t another ranked center out there.
It seems as though more and more of the middle tier players are signing quickly, knowing that once the big time recruits start committing, they may see their top choices disappear. Of the committed players in the top 100, 80 have already signed.
My quick and dirty roster math for some of the other top schools:
UNC - I have them having at least one scholarship, with the possibility of 2 if Marcus Paige jumps to the NBA. They have signed one, so they hope they are done. If Paige leaves, there’s no more PG’s out there. It would be an actual disaster for UNC if Paige left at this point.
Duke - They only have 12 players listed on their current roster, so they are already 1 under (Ojeleye transfer). There are two seniors on the roster, and Jahlil Okafor is as OAD as they get. They have signed Chase Jeter to replace Okafor and Luke Kennard at the 2 spot. They have two more scholarships and are in on Brandon Ingram. They aren’t listed for anyone else on ESPN right now, but that could change because they have a late scholarship to offer.
Kentucky - The math is a little weird here. They have no seniors on scholarship by my count, but they will probably have some NBA attrition. I am counting Cauley-Stein, Towns and Lyles as departures. Dakari Johnson is a maybe, but I think he stays. There could be a surprise departure here. Kentucky has already landed Skal Labissiere
, Isaiah Briscoe (PG) and Charles Matthews (SG). That takes care of their allotment, although there could be a transfer situation here as well. They are still in on Brown, Newman, Diallo, Rabb, Swanigan, Zimmerman, Ingram and Bryant. I bet they sign one more, but they don’t have room beyond that because everyone else is back.Arizona - The lone western power right now has 2 seniors on scholarship. I think Brandon Ashley goes pro, along with Stanley Johnson and Kaleb Tarczewski. They have inked SG Allonzo Trier, SF Ray Smith, PG Justin Simon and C Chance Comanche. That leaves them with one spot and they are in on Rabb, Swanigan and Zimmerman. My guess is they land one of that trio.
Michigan St. - Izzo has learned the hard way that he can’t just assume he will match up with toughness, that he needs talent too. Two seniors are leaving, but they are adding Eron Harris (transfer from West Virginia). They have signed three guys already, so I think they are done because I don’t see any NBA attrition here.
Ohio State - OSU has at least five scholarships going to seniors. They have signed four. They will almost certainly sign at least one more, possibly two.
UCLA - They have at least two spots available, but they have already signed two. They are considering just about everyone, so my gut tells me they will probably sign two more if they can.
Texas - They will have two scholarships available at a minimum, but they have already signed two. They are in on Diallo, though, so they are sniffing around as if they have one more scholarship to offer.
So if you are counting at home, the math (and who may fill it) is as follows:
UNC - 0
Duke - 2 (Ingram and a transfer)
Kentucky - 1 (Brown)
Arizona - 1 (Rabb)
Michigan St. - 0
Ohio St. - 1 (Bryant)
UCLA - 2 (Swanigan and a non top 100 player)
Texas - 1 (Diallo)
Kansas - 2 (Newman and Zimmerman)
Of course, this could all go very wrong for a variety of reasons, and this would in many ways be the dream scenario for KU to land Newman and Zimmerman to add to what we have already and what we will bring back. That’s just a monster lineup anyway you slice it.
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I don’t think we have really been recruiting Kapita. I know his list shows us but there has been little word that we are actually after him. I have him pegged for Missouri if my money is on a program for him.
With Bigs I think we will get 1 more HS kid, Diallo would be the most ideal for his skills and that he’s a few years away from being a serious NBA prospect. He wouldn’t be a traditional 5 but his shot blocking is 2nd to none in the class regardless of height. We should look into the transfer pool for a big as well either to sit or play next year. We won’t know the extent of the needs til the end of the season.
At Center we are either boom or bust, we get Maker or Zimmerman or neither this year. Both are OAD’s so what are we missing by getting them for one year. Just another player to add to the list of posts leaving this program next year, its why I favor Diallo over anyone.
UNC has Joel Berry and Britt who are PG’s. They are fine if Paige leaves.
Duke also has a C sitting this year who had a good year at Rice.
Zona- I don’t see Zeus going pro as he’s not really being thought of as a draft pick. Things could change but he looks likely to stick it out and get his degree. If he does go that could really hurt our chances with Zimmerman.
Michigan St in great shape for Swanigan
Ohio St- Newman could wind up there if Russell leaves
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I think what we are seeing is result of the OAD fever that does not always pan out and turns into TAD and so on. In the past, by this time in the season most HS players were committed to a school, but now they have to wait and see who leaves and who stays and what the playing time situation will be…pretty hard for coaches to recruit with so much uncertainty and so many unknowns.
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@justanotherfan You said that this class has kind of filled out strangely. I think this is how it has been filling out and will continue to fill out as long as the OAD opportunity exists. The top guys have no reason to sign early (unless they just want to get it over with). They want to see who on (Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, etc.) goes pro and who stays. There will always be a place for these guys. The next tier have a little more incentive to sign early…they don’t want to get locked out of some of the places they want to go due to scholarship limitations.
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What I meant by strange is that usually there are some midlevel guys that are still out there around this time. That’s not the case this year. There are 5 guys outside the top 20 that are not signed right now. Most years, there have been at least 12-15 guys in that range that still hadn’t made a commitment. I don’t expect the top guys to sign early.
What has surprised me is that the middle guys have adapted and snapped up scholarships quickly so they aren’t left standing when the music stops. And because almost everyone has signed an LOI, there won’t be the opportunity for late shuffling. There is almost literally no one outside the top 20 that is still available. That’s what’s strange.
