Life after flattening?
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When do we “open the country back up” and what does that mean? I don’t have answers but I thought I’d put this thread out there for discussion as right now I don’t think anyone has answers. I think it’s important that we start thinking ahead and not week to week. Some critical decisions revolve around being able to see further than the tip of our nose.
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9-18 months. “Opening the country” means JACK SQUAT until we have fast widespread testing available (or a vaccine/cure). Nothing has changed since the first known case. Imagine a social reboot with a half a million known carriers instead of just a handful. It boggles the mind.
I expect the second wave in the US will be worse than the first
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It sounds like this thing could end up being seasonal like the flu. I’ve also read that they don’t think it will survive the high temperatures of summer in most states. The issue right now is it is crippling the country and if it goes on for a few more months. There won’t be very many small businesses and several big businesses will be bankrupt as well. The United States postal service has announced they can only survive until September as of today. Jobs will be beyond scarce and the unemployment rate will be more than double it has ever been. That’s before we get into the likely hood that millions will starve to death if it continues. I’m not sure if we should give it til the end of the month and only quarantine high risk folks or what, but it’s not good and people will go crazy before to long.
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The only antibody test available now is basically garbage. It’ll be awhile before we’re safe to do much of anything. In my county we just had an 80 person outbreak related to a nursing home. We’re weeks away from the peak.
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The big problem is this will screw the economy. We aren’t seeing it yet but it will happen. It might be 4-5 years before the economic crapper is fixed. It’s not like everything was frozen in time and magically gets to restart.
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@BShark said in Life after flattening?:
The big problem is this will screw the economy. We aren’t seeing it yet but it will happen. It might be 4-5 years before the economic crapper is fixed. It’s not like everything was frozen in time and magically gets to restart.
Oh I’m definitely seeing it now. There aren’t any cars around anymore. It’s eerie af. Plus the millions upon millions of unemployment insurance claims. The jobs report this month will be historically brutal
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So how does the economy recover? We have 4 million people who are unemployed find new ways to get employed and the other 12 million on unemployment for a year? How long?
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@approxinfinity said in Life after flattening?:
So how does the economy recover? We have 4 million people who are unemployed find new ways to get employed and the other 12 million on unemployment for a year? How long?
The hope is the relief package was big enough that most people laid off were just effectively furloughed. Once we come back online they get their old jobs back. At this point though it’s hard to say.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Life after flattening?:
@approxinfinity said in Life after flattening?:
So how does the economy recover? We have 4 million people who are unemployed find new ways to get employed and the other 12 million on unemployment for a year? How long?
The hope is the relief package was big enough that most people laid off were just effectively furloughed. Once we come back online they get their old jobs back. At this point though it’s hard to say.
From my understanding small businesses can get a loan to pay their employees and bring them back once the economy opens again. If they do just that they don’t have to pay back the loan.
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@DoubleDD said in Life after flattening?:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Life after flattening?:
@approxinfinity said in Life after flattening?:
So how does the economy recover? We have 4 million people who are unemployed find new ways to get employed and the other 12 million on unemployment for a year? How long?
The hope is the relief package was big enough that most people laid off were just effectively furloughed. Once we come back online they get their old jobs back. At this point though it’s hard to say.
From my understanding small businesses can get a loan to pay their employees and bring them back once the economy opens again. If they do just that they don’t have to pay back the loan.
That’s correct. Congress just needs to make sure the program has enough money to meet the demand.
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@DoubleDD Yes, I work for a small business that took this loan. It will be forgiven but we have to pay interest and it’s only to pay employees for 10 weeks. I’ve been using mine( 2 weeks in) with my daughters heart condition but if things aren’t better in that 10 weeks, we will half to lay off most of our employees with business being slow. Then the trouble becomes if we are making enough money to pay our loan for our building and some equipment we have yet to pay off. Sad to think that most mom and pop shops won’t survive. Companies like wal mart are licking their chops. @BShark can anyone explain why tests are so crappy and scarce but they tested a damn tiger for it? Seems like a waste of resources at a bare minimum.
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@kjayhawks said in Life after flattening?:
@DoubleDD Yes, I work for a small business that took this loan. It will be forgiven but we have to pay interest and it’s only to pay employees for 10 weeks. I’ve been using mine( 2 weeks in) with my daughters heart condition but if things aren’t better in that 10 weeks, we will half to lay off most of our employees with business being slow. Then the trouble becomes if we are making enough money to pay our loan for our building and some equipment we have yet to pay off. Sad to think that most mom and pop shops won’t survive. Companies like wal mart are licking their chops. @BShark can anyone explain why tests are so crappy and scarce but they tested a damn tiger for it? Seems like a waste of resources army bare minimum.
Yea it was my biggest fear. Shutting down the world economy is so bad for small business owners. I don’t have all the answers but I got feeling you and your family are going to make it. Keep your head up. Good times are coming.
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I’m wondering about a soft social distancing guarantee for every industry. In the case of automechanics for instance, no entering the car if you have extension tools that can reach from outside? I know that sounds absurd.
More generally im wondering if there is a way to loosely guarantee an individual has been socially distanced.
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@kjayhawks said in Life after flattening?:
@DoubleDD Yes, I work for a small business that took this loan. It will be forgiven but we have to pay interest and it’s only to pay employees for 10 weeks. I’ve been using mine( 2 weeks in) with my daughters heart condition but if things aren’t better in that 10 weeks, we will half to lay off most of our employees with business being slow. Then the trouble becomes if we are making enough money to pay our loan for our building and some equipment we have yet to pay off. Sad to think that most mom and pop shops won’t survive. Companies like wal mart are licking their chops. @BShark can anyone explain why tests are so crappy and scarce but they tested a damn tiger for it? Seems like a waste of resources army bare minimum.
They tested the tiger in their own zoo lab I believe.
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But nobody can explain why the US sucks ass at testing. I sure can’t. And the feds allowing private companies to be the distributors of medical supplies is dumbfounding.
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@Kcmatt7 we have tested more people than any other country, at least as reported. I agree we sucked at it and had an opportunity to be much better that we squandered by not allowing for independent testing until way late. But we are now at a place where we are much better at testing, I think? We just took too long to get here.
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@approxinfinity said in Life after flattening?:
@Kcmatt7 we have tested more people than any other country, at least as reported. I agree we sucked at it and had an opportunity to be much better that we squandered by not allowing for independent testing until way late. But we are now at a place where we are much better at testing, I think? We just took too long to get here.
Number of tests is not a great measurement.
Per capita, we are finally ramping up. And even at that, it’s still very difficult to get tested unless you’re going to the emergency room your symptoms are so bad.
What I’ve been told from Wyandotte County officials, test are allocated by population and not outbreaks. So places like KC treat their test like gold because they still don’t have enough of them.
I still hear drive thru testing horror stories and people showing symptoms unable to get tests.
We keep hearing people wanting to go back to work, but until anyone in the country is able to get quick testing we can’t. So to me, Until we get to that point, we are failing.
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@Kcmatt7 well said.
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@approxinfinity said in Life after flattening?:
@Kcmatt7 well said.
I will say it is definitely getting better quickly. Test times have gone down from 5 days to about 7 hours the past week.
So things are getting better.
Our problem is partially that we aren’t dense enough. Being so spread out as a country means our tests are spread thinner. 25% of our postulation doesn’t live in one city like many countries.
So that poses its own unique challenges that need to be taken in to consideration.
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@Kcmatt7 said in Life after flattening?:
But nobody can explain why the US sucks ass at testing. I sure can’t. And the feds allowing private companies to be the distributors of medical supplies is dumbfounding.
I’ve got a suggestion. The FDA and CDC were WAY too slow in approving tests in private and academic labs that were already being conducted. At one point they shut that early testing down. Have to love red tape.
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@FarmerJayhawk one of hundreds of thousands of issues with the government right now. Most of the red tape is to insure they made more money by preforming the test themselves.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Life after flattening?:
@Kcmatt7 said in Life after flattening?:
But nobody can explain why the US sucks ass at testing. I sure can’t. And the feds allowing private companies to be the distributors of medical supplies is dumbfounding.
I’ve got a suggestion. The FDA and CDC were WAY too slow in approving tests in private and academic labs that were already being conducted. At one point they shut that early testing down. Have to love red tape.
I would say that is likely one of the issues.
Although I understand the concerns. Who would pay for it? The state, the federal government or insurance companies?
How do we ensure they are accurate?
How do we ensure that we aren’t being defrauded? As in someone claims to perform tests, but really aren’t and just send the bills and collect cash.
Some of this could red tape could be prevented by, dare I say it, a centralized healthcare system that removes some of these questions and administration issues.
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@Kcmatt7 said in Life after flattening?:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Life after flattening?:
@Kcmatt7 said in Life after flattening?:
But nobody can explain why the US sucks ass at testing. I sure can’t. And the feds allowing private companies to be the distributors of medical supplies is dumbfounding.
I’ve got a suggestion. The FDA and CDC were WAY too slow in approving tests in private and academic labs that were already being conducted. At one point they shut that early testing down. Have to love red tape.
I would say that is likely one of the issues.
Although I understand the concerns. Who would pay for it? The state, the federal government or insurance companies?
How do we ensure they are accurate?
How do we ensure that we aren’t being defrauded? As in someone claims to perform tests, but really aren’t and just send the bills and collect cash.
Some of this could red tape could be prevented by, dare I say it, a centralized healthcare system that removes some of these questions and administration issues.
The Feds farm out R&D all the time to private and academic institutions. They could’ve easily done the same here. The research labs have tons of experience running RCT’s and whatnot on new drugs, so there’s no reason to pull their funding and have FDA employees do it. Private companies make and test drugs all the time, then run trials to ensure they’re effective. The FDA has monitoring capacity. If a company makes a fraudulent drug, they’ll suffer massive financial losses. Then the rest of the world buys what we develop (the US patents about half of all new drugs worldwide each year). If the FDA screws up and makes faulty tests like they did for COVID, we all just shrug and keep paying them.
Centralizing it all probably won’t make any difference. We’re testing at about the same rate as all the other developed countries sans Italy. I suppose we could just get rid of all those pesky university hospitals and make them more similar to the Federally run hospitals like the checks notes VA?
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@FarmerJayhawk and @Kcmatt7 our government isn’t worried about making money off covid tests. They want to restart our economy. That is the question of the day. One that will make Trump a hero or satan’s pawn. I’m afraid any decision he makes will be bad for him.
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This is long but good on this topic of what comes next: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/
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Oof… https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/social-distancing-research-coronavirus-2022-trnd/index.html
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@benshawks08 people won’t do it. Look at the idiot governors that wouldn’t shut down. Our, ks gov, did a great job and she’s catching it from the ks lg. We have clusters from churches, 3 in Sedgwick co, 1 or 2 in kck-you guys may know, where there have been deaths. Lawrence has a church that has been meeting since the orders have been in place. The AG won’t do anything. Most pastors back the governor. We have streaming services! We also don’t have tests. I think it will get crazy.
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@benshawks08 said in Life after flattening?:
This is long but good on this topic of what comes next: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/
I read this yesterday. It is going to be a long time until things are back to “normal”. I personally do not think things will ever go back to the way they were before.
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@Woodrow I mean at this point, if things go back to the way they were before that would just mean we are ill prepared for the next virus. Hopefully, some meaningful change comes from this. Hopefully, we learn something.
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Looks life life after flattening could be better for some than others… https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article242003481.html
Guess republicans snuck some stuff into the relief bill too.
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Don’t know if this is a good thing or bad thing BUT the number of positive cases taking a big time up tick, we jumped up by 117 new positive cases from yesterday. - - - We have been increasing daily Tuesday up 76 cases , Wedns up 94 cases - -& yesterday up 117 cases.
Now is that a good thing or bad ? - -I believe it o not thinks it might be good, could very well mean we are getting closer to the spike and then start to see a drop off - -maybe just wishful thinking but HEY got to think positive right. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@jayballer73 Other silver linings to increasing positive numbers could mean better/more testing but hard to say. Still seeing the peak supposedly around the beginning of May overall but locally will vary wildly.
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@benshawks08 said in Life after flattening?:
@jayballer73 Other silver linings to increasing positive numbers could mean better/more testing but hard to say. Still seeing the peak supposedly around the beginning of May overall but locally will vary wildly.
ya that’s true - guess I’m reaching for SOMETHING positive. Bout ready to go nutts stuck in here with the wife lmao
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@jayballer73 Hope she doesn’t read your posts!
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@benshawks08 said in Life after flattening?:
@jayballer73 Hope she doesn’t read your posts!
lmao , no love her to death - - BUT all I hear her talk about recently is about her an her female friend across the street THE SAME ONE I’m getting the moonshine from lol - - all I hear about is the two of them talking about their vape - - vape - - vape - - vape lol. - -Making new flavores - -buying new mods and such - -yada , yada , yada, lol.
Probably the way she hears me talk about KU Basketball - -OR my KU site - - OR Ku football , but football is a VERY BRIEF conversation lol. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@jayballer73 Love that your order is 1. Bbal, 2. buckets, 3. football 4. Only kinda football.
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@benshawks08 we don’t have enough tests in ks
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@Crimsonorblue22 Yeah. According to this no state really does.
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Stay in Kansas as the surrounding areas aren’t looking good! “The bump in coronavirus cases is most pronounced in states without stay at home orders. Oklahoma saw a 53% increase in cases over the past week, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Over same time, cases jumped 60% in Arkansas, 74% in Nebraska, and 82% in Iowa. South Dakota saw a whopping 205% spike. The remaining states, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming each saw an increase in cases, but more in line with other places that have stay-at-home orders. And all of those numbers may very well undercount the total cases, given a persistent lack of testing across the US.”
That from this: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/politics/republican-governors-stay-at-home-coronavirus/index.html
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Ugh: this suggests the virus is airborne… much more than the 6 foot.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016041202031254X
I need to vet this publication… but looks legit at first glance.
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I think we r 50th. In western ks, Ford co has 84 cases today, up 10. Guessing it’s a meat packing plant, they haven’t said. Western ks has been relatively safe. Rural Kansas will start feeling those effects. People go to dodge for groceries, supplies and healthcare.
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@benshawks08 s Dakota is that meat packing plant. They’ve closed several others.
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Another fact from the hutch news, Another five outbreaks around the state are attributed to church gatherings, with 79 related illnesses.
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Life after flattening?:
I think we r 50th. In western ks, Ford co has 84 cases today, up 10. Guessing it’s a meat packing plant, they haven’t said. Western ks has been relatively safe. Rural Kansas will start feeling those effects. People go to dodge for groceries, supplies and healthcare.
Idaho fell below KS so now we (KS) are 49th in the country in testing. For all the good Governor Kelly has done she needs to figure out a way to get some more damn test.
Oh and also figure out the Unemployment Bs. There are so many people that can’t file and or have not yet received a dime.
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@Woodrow you do know the system is from the 1970’s? They were in the process of replacing some of it when this hit and had to shut down. In 2011 they received Money to replace and update, guess what? Brokeback didn’t do it! They are uncovering several things that money was allotted for and didn’t get done. He was truly the worst and left them in a deep dark hole. I think they have gotten things rolling, patched together. Hired more to help. I listen to her daily conferences. Her and the KDHE, dr Norman. I think they are a pretty good team and she had 2 ladies from Dept of Labor on the other day explaining how to get thru the system. It’s definitely not for lack of their hard work. I know dentists are using 3D printers to making the swabs. Orders on they way get stopped and sent to other states. Sucks.
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Fun story from my days at the state. The state bought $10 million in computer hardware and the agencies never even took it out of Saran Wrap. It was in the basement of Docking until a year or two ago when they donated it to K-State.
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@FarmerJayhawk oh good gosh! Not very fun considering people are struggling and blaming Kelly
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@FarmerJayhawk so how can that not be accounted for? How would you know that?
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@bskeet it’s all theoretical. Possible. Hope for the best, assume the worst.
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@benshawks08 said in Life after flattening?:
@jayballer73 Love that your order is 1. Bbal, 2. buckets, 3. football 4. Only kinda football.
lmao ya that pretty much sums it up lol
