Either this Bragg thing is for real or Jerry Meyer is trolling KU fans hard...
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I spent a good chunk of last night hitting up every good recruiting resource I know to try and find out if anyone had an in on Carlton Bragg. Unfortunately, I can’t say that I met much success, so I’m left with starring at the pundits and trying to puzzle things out for myself. The only real interesting thing that I saw was a tweet by Jerry Meyer about his latest round of Crystal Ball predictions, and thus the title of this post. Can this be for real? Are Bragg, Brandon Ingram, and Malik Newman really coming to KU as a packaged deal? Is that the recruiting class we want? This one is really getting under my skin.
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Newman? I thought it was J Brown that was part of their package?
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I will never believe anything the “experts” say. Randle was for sure going to KU. Wiggins was for sure not going to KU. The Harrison twins were going to Maryland. Darrel Arthur was not going to KU (until he had a dream). Cliff Alexander was going to Illinois (even picked up the hat!). I just don’t lose much sleep over this stuff. I wish and I hope for the best and I like the idea of getting an OAD guy along with some 3-4 year guys in the same class. It is what it is. Can’t worry too much as half the time I don’t think these 18 year old kids even know until they are signing a letter with the school that they finally decided on.
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I saw all the recent predictions there, too … lots of recent “action” on KU.
Personally, I’ll be surprised if we land one perimeter player until and unless it’s clear that we’re losing two perimeter guys. Ingram may make sense since he’s not a presumed OAD, and sparse playing time early may not be totally out of the realm of reason. Let’s say we lose Oubre (draft) and Greene (transfer). A recruit would still have to overcome Selden and Svi at the 2 and the 3, with Graham getting PT in the rotation with Mason as the starting 1.
But Newman or Brown seem like a big reach with what we have returning, and how Self manages rotations (in contrast to the vaunted platoon).
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Hello Newman!
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Interesting list. If you look at all the predictions, many have changed Bragg from UK or OSU to KU and KU seems to be in the lead over UK 44% to 31% based on all predictions; not a huge lead but a lead nonetheless.
Other predictions:
Malik Newman: UK-62%, KU-15% - A likely UK get
Brandon Ingram - Duke-53%, UNC-23%, KU-20% - Duke with a clear lead
Cheick Diallo: KU-57%, UK- 21% - Big surprise, KU with a big lead
Jaylen Brown - UK-39%, UCLA-39%, KU-11%
Tyler Dorsey - CAL-61%, KU-33%
The big unknown is Stephen Zimmerman.
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@JayHawkFanToo On the whole, I don’t put a lot of faith in the overall Crystal Ball predictions because most of the guys making them are people like me: recruiting enthusiasts trying to make sense of rumors and speculation. Every now and again, you find a really good source that’s willing to share what they know (and I had a very reliable one in Norm Roberts circle for a while), but more often than not it’s a mix of gut and logic. When I do get those sources and they have good news to share, I like to get it out to everyone as soon as I can, but otherwise I’m speculating. Having said that, Jerry Meyer usually is ‘in the know’ more often than not and when he sends a strong signal, that holds a lot of weight with me. Overall, though, I think the composite predictions make more sense. And I’d rather have Diallo (who Meyer switched to ISU) and Bragg than Bragg and Ingram. Like @HighEliteMajor says, we don’t really need another perimeter player, and getting one would likely spell a transfer.
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We realistically should be signing 4, expecting Oubre & Cliff to leave. We have to assume 1 transfer as well. If that happens we would have 5 spots open. That could play into the Bragg, Ingram, Brown, Newman sweepstakes.
I wouldn’t say guards are our top priority right now but that can change. If we land Dorsey that would be great because its insurance for anyone leaving, perfect combo guard to bring in. I read that he was a lean for KU but it seems to be up in the air with us and Cal. Cal having a good year doesn’t help in the regard, Especially with their guard Wallace on draft boards now.
Ingram doesn’t fit a need. Brown would be over the top. No matter who’s still around if he commits he’s dynamite and taking someone’s spot. Athleticism is off the charts for that kid. He’s another 1 and done wing but we can’t pass up on that one.
We need clear upgrades for Lucas & Mickelson at this point. Bragg would be the first prize, getting Diallo or Zimmerman the next. Plus with Ellis, Traylor, Mickelson Seniors next year its time to get guys in the system. Cliff is as good as gone, Oubre too.
Hard to see Newman at Kentucky right now with Briscoe & Matthews already signed. The Harrison Twins aren’t high on any draft boards right now, Booker & Ulis are getting looks but neither is guranteed a high spot at this moment. Can’t see him wanting to join a loaded backcourt but that will all play out before he signs anyway.
Self has positioned himself for a great class, he just needs one domino to fall to start collecting. Bragg is the crucial first commit and then the rest will fall into place by the end of the year.
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@BeddieKU23 I am not trying to stir it up or anything but Cliff and Oubre are as good as gone? I really don’t see that. At the moment Oubre seems like a fringe Lottery pick and Alexander seems like a guy who can’t even get in the starting lineup. Not sure that his lack of height, lack of shooting, lack of post moves and lack of ability to stay out of foul trouble have NBA scouts thinking he is a Lottery pick this year.
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I think you are correct. If Oubre continues to progress like he has in the last few games, he is as good as gone. At this time, I just don’t see Alexander as a lottery pick.
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@wrwlumpy Hello Newman!
Great Minds Think Alike ( GMTA )…LOL. You wrote my first thought I had.
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Hello Jerry!
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How shall I put this?
adidas reputedly tossed UL $45M bones.
adidas reputedly just tossed Miami $33M bones.
That’s a lot of calcium.
Its reputedly true that Rick Pitino is irked about a recent decommit and about an unlevel playing field in recruiting. But if you think about it. It makes sense for Rick to take the lead in the charge to the moral high ground of recruiting. He is near to the end of his career. He has taken the most heat and investigative scrutiny due to his troubles with being extorted. No one hired to go after Rick is apt to find much. And a recent quote suggested what he thinks about the NCAA’s apparent blind eye: if he were quoted correctly he was saying something like, if the NCAA sees no problem with the unlevel playing field then I don’t either. Clever rhetoric.
But I am tiring of the unlevel playing field metaphor.
I think the ocean chopped up with broadside salvos from dueling battle ships may be a more fitting metaphor.
This seems to be a war for the “soles” of college basketball.
If adidas were willing to keep investing these kinds of monies into selected programs, they likely are doing it based on a strategy.
And all strategies with shoes sooner or later involve attracting ever increasing numbers of players into the pre-endorsement fold of college programs hopefully later to be contracted with your own brand to push the brand into the path of global market growth.
With adidas throwing the kind of bones its throwing, I really wouldn’t worry about KU eventually getting its share of recruits. I don’t think Nike, or adidas, are doing anything illegal. I just think they are doing everything that is legal.
Bragg could easily be the first of several for KU, or maybe not.
I frankly wouldn’t be surprised to see Self overhaul the roster after the season more than ever before. 5-8 OAD/TADs on the roster next season is not at all beyond possibility, if historical tit for tat between UK and KU were any predictor.
From the moment Nike-UK got 10 OAD/TADs and Nike-Duke got 9, the talent concentration gloves appeared to come off.
Self’s apparent decision to treat the UK game as a practice game left me with the impression that SHOEWARS had already been declared before the season started.
adidas spending the big bones at least appears to suggest they may stay off for awhile.
By the way,adidas decision to win the Miami contract appears a smart one. adidas cannot fight this apparent shoewar without a cornerstone program in Florida imho.
adidas appeared to need a better EST strategy and they just got one.
The game seems pretty obvious to mois.
Stack at least one program in each NCAA region to maximize your presence in the Final Four.
adidas is now positioned to do that. But it still seems stuck in an ad hoc process of its programs having to pry Nike-leans away from Nike-programs, and that appears a slow build, as the relatively lower number of OAD/TADs at adidas programs attests.
Alas, a major uncertainty IMHO is whether team adidas-KU makes heavy rain in Lawrence this season again, or decides to be a good team player and recognizes the need to concentrate in the EST.
Of course there is another way for adidas to approach this. They could concentrate on two regions. Channel talent into two regions to make sure they get at least two of four final four slots. That is the way that makes sense to me, since according to Pitino they apparently have a smaller pool of talent for their coaches/colleges to draw from.
Nerve racking for a KU fan, but interesting.
(Note: all hypothetical opining and speculating as usual.)
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New mock draft – Oubre climbs to #9, Cliff down to #25. Here are comments on both players:
Kelly Oubre: In four out of his past five games, Oubre has been the best player on the floor for the Jayhawks. He has two 20-point games (against Lafayette and Kent State) and two double-doubles in his past four. He appears to get more aggressive by the game. While his shot wasn’t falling in the UNLV game, he made up for it with terrific defense on Rashad Vaughn. Oubre is shooting 48 percent from 3-point range and has improved his 2-point shooting to 39 percent. If he keeps improving at this rate, there’s a good change he’s the first wing off the board.
Cliff Alexander: Alexander continues to be an effective energy guy coming off the bench. He took the most shots of his career on Sunday against UNLV and went 5-for-12 from the field for 10 points and five rebounds in 21 minutes. Alexander clearly has an NBA body and terrific athleticism and motor, but his basketball skills are lagging, and once again we saw him struggle a bit against the length of Goodluck Okonoboh and Christian Wood in the UNLV game. At this point, he’s moving out of the lottery conversation and looks like he might be better off playing at least one more season at Kansas to polish his skills. Nevertheless, it’s a long season and as Oubre proved, things can turn around quickly when the right opportunities come along.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/mock/?season=2015&version=5&source=Chad-Ford-Big-Board
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I know there has been some discussion on LSU, and their recent commitment from Antonio Blakeney. They have Ben Simmons too. Now Craig Victor is leaving Arizona and LSU (he’s from Louisiana) is immediately mentioned as being in the mix. Interesting. What is now making LSU so attractive?
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This story goes along with jaybate’s shoe co conspiracy. Yesterday I was listening to Ned Reynolds on Sports Reporters and he had a guest on from the Bass Pro ToC. The ToC rep was talking about how they managed to get Oak Hill (#1 High school team currently) in to this years tourney. The rep said they had tried unsuccessfully the past few years to get Oak Hill in but couldn’t even get the OH HC to even talk to them. So this year the ToC reached out to a person that is affiliated with Nike. Well Nike got in contact with OH HC and now OH is in the tourney. It’s amazing that even ShoeCo money talks in High School sports. How long before all of American sports are transformed in to the European model in which the NBA, NFL, and MLB clubs all have the own club teams and own these youngsters before they can even count to 10??
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@jaybate-1.0 Where does one get thes numbers and is it listed at all top programs?
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There must be some really BAD players in college right now if Oubre is the #9 projection. Holy sh_.
I guess I need to watch some other teams play in order to appreciate how awesome our “best player on the floor” Oubre has been in his last four games. Did the guy who ranked him even watch those games or just look at stats and a few highlights against those two powerhouses Lafayette and Kent State? Maybe I need to force myself to watch an NBA game too, so I can figure out what kind of talent it takes to be a Pro these days.
Love Cliff, but he’s barely making 50% of his dunk attempts. OAD? Seriously?
Embiid and Wiggins. No doubt those guys were ready for the league. Selby is fulfilling his lifetime dream playing ball in Israel and he was more prepared for pro ball than Kelly and Cliff. I give up.
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@Kip_McSmithers That story blew my mind, Kip. You mean Ned Reynolds of KY3 is STILL ALIVE?
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@JayhawkRock78 : I think those numbers are just the deals they’ve recently signed with adidas. I didn’t see the actual numbers on the 'Canes deal though. Those are just speculations that the Canes deal is close to the recent Arizona State deal which is around the 33 million. This site has all college deals. See how much your university gets from Nike, Adidas or Under Armour 2014 Database
Here’s a good link about the ShoeCo from USAToday. How college shoe contracts impact elite basketball recruits.
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@DanR : Nit Wit just retired from KY3 this past month. I think he still does Springfield Cards games, MSU Bears stuff, special reports, and then his radio stuff but he’s not the 10pm sports guy anymore. He’s been around a long time. I watched his retirement special and they mentioned Ned interviewing Phog back in the day.
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The evaluation on Oubre and Alexander seems spot on and pretty much what most members of this forum have mentioned.
I have also been wondering about LSU and its sudden attraction to recruits…do we have Calipari Part Deux?
P.S. FWIW, LSU is a Nike school
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I recall individual stories about each of these two deals mentioning these figures.
But I do not recall any single source that tracks shoe contract amounts for all programs. Might be out there though.
I searched and found a few lists of schools and brand of shoe contract. I could never tell how complete they were.
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Just a reminder: @jaybate 1.0 does not believe there is a conspiracy going on with PetroShoeCos. I believe everyone is operating legally. I have no proven theories or insider knowledge about this. I hypothesize there is just a duopoly, or oligopoly, depending on definition, with participants making moves and counter moves to position strategically for the shoe business. Conspiracy may imply covert illegality to some and that is not how @jaybate 1.0 views this situation at all. Good to see you posting again. Rock Chalk!
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@jaybate-1.0 I posted a link that has college apparel deals in my last post. Biz Journal has it set up so you can search by conference, apparel co, or just the school in question.
See how much your university gets from Nike, Adidas or Under Armour 2014 Database
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Awesome! Thx.
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My reasoning is 2 fold. Oubre is the 2nd rated SF right now and that’s really only scratching the surface of what he’s doing now. Was avg less than 3 pts per game, now up to 7 and climbing. Rebounds extremely well with 2 double doubles already since starting. Ellis has 3 double doubles total for perspective. Scouts love his size, athleticism and potential to keep getting better as he gets older. All he’s doing is cementing his stock by playing well. He keeps it going in conference play he’ll be lottery.
With Cliff, here’s where I’m thinking. His stock has slid from top 10 to mid/late first round. Scouts see an unpolished post player who could be great once he gets better. He’s not starting so his numbers could be affecting by the less minutes. He could be starting and learning on the fly, or as Self is doing trying to make him earn that spot to the point of no return. Cliff has also been asked to play out of position because of Ellis. Next year will be the same thing if he stayed Why would he stay if he’s still a first round pick when he can get paid to get better.
Now the recruiting aspect with Cliff. If Bragg commits tomm then that makes 5 potential bigs for next year. Then you still have the Diallo/Zimmerman/Maker/Rabb sweepstakes up for grabs. Say Zimm or Maker commits which are true Centers with size now your competing against bigger and talented players. I didn’t say more talented just equal talent level players potentially coming in. The writing is on the wall starting tomm with potentially Bragg that Cliff will only be here one year.
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@Kip_McSmithers I did a sort across all programs and we came up # 3.
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It’s not just about numbers - it’s also about talent.
For example, Phil Forte is the leading scorer in the Big 12 right now. He is decidedly not an NBA prospect because of his small size and limited defensive ability. He’s playing great, but he could not hold up as a PG in the NBA because he couldn’t defend either a 1 or a 2 (he’s a below average college defender, which would make him downright tragic at the NBA level) and his best skill (shooting) would be minimized at the NBA level because there are better scorers than him in the NBA.
In fact, if you look at the top 20 scorers in the Big 12 right now, the only ones that are actual NBA prospects are Myles Turner (who is 20th in scoring), and perhaps Juwan Staten (3rd in scoring). Everyone else is basically a very good college player.
Think of it this way - Oubre can play either wing spot in the NBA because he’s a legit 6-6 or 6-7. Georges Niang can’t play SF in the NBA because he’s not quick enough. He can’t play PF because he’s not big enough or athletic enough. At 6-8 playing below the rim, Niang can be a great college player because he can shoot set shot threes, handle the ball, and use his size to bang with other 6-7 and 6-8 post players. In the NBA, he’s trying to either beat a SF off the dribble or banging inside with a 6-10 PF. Doubtful either of those things works in his favor, so while he’s a tremendous college player and will probably help ISU win a ton of games the next couple years, he doesn’t have much of an NBA future.
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I remember when Nit Wit Ned got into trouble for Pirating sports video’s for his show from the other Springfield station. He was so dumb that he didn’t realize that the other station’s logo was on the tape.
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ESPN is saying that Miami is getting a deal similar to what UofL got. In the range of 7.8 per year for a total of about 90mil over the entire contract. Not bad. Canes, adidas deal I’m feeling like our deal is too little now. Hopefully by 2019, Beaty, or whoever is at the helm at that time, can have our FB program respectable and we can demand a larger piece of the pie.
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@konkeyDong From LJW today-
“The decision is slated to be revealed at the twitter handle @realchalktalk shortly after the 1:45 p.m. announcement is made. David Cassilo of Cleveland.com wrote on Twitter on Wednesday that the Website is planning a live-stream of the event. His Twitter handle is @dcassilo.”
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Varsity Chalk Talk @realchalktalk
· 14h 14 hours ago
VASJ press conference for Carlton Bragg college announcement is ON as scheduled for Jan 8 at 245 pm at the high school despite weather
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I posted earlier that I don’t lose any sleep over recruiting. This is true but I certainly have spent the entire day today in anticipation for 1:45 pm CST and feel quite nervous. Not as nervous as I was last night after Frank missed his free throw…but still nervous.
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LOL
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@joeloveshawks said:
I posted earlier that I don’t lose any sleep over recruiting. This is true but I certainly have spent the entire day today in anticipation for 1:45 pm CST and feel quite nervous. Not as nervous as I was last night after Frank missed his free throw…but still nervous.
12 minutes to go… Get ready to refresh like a mad man
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No hats is a good sign.
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I remember when I announced I was going to KU…to my parents…in our living room…with no TV cameras.
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Anyone know if Jesse is in the house???
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@Kip_McSmithers Don’t know but the suspense is kicking my butt !!
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@Kip_McSmithers …Drum roll Russ…
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His coach is killing me! Play the music and get him off the mic. Anyone watch Dave Chappelle? “Wrap it Up”…
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@konkeyDong Thanks for the feed!
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Oh no, notanother coach…I guess they all deserve their 5 min of fame’
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This is ludicrous.
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@joeloveshawks Maybe Gramma will get the mic…
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Now that drum roll…
