We've been here before, but after last year, it feels different.
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@jayballer73 You have to look past the way he frames the issue and read his salient point. Yes, it would be nice if he learned some phrases like …“my opinion is” or " I believe", but that said, he is a passionate KU fan, and he participates heavily on the boards. And he is pretty damn sharp in his analysis…
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I will say this - if Jalen Wilson can play some minutes as a stretch 4 type player, that could open up things for Marcus Garrett at the 3 in something resembling a functional offense. Because of his style of play, Garrett needs to be on the floor with as many shooters/ floor spacers as possible. Even if Wilson only plays 14 or so minutes, if most of those are as a stretch 4 with Garrett and either Doke or Silvio on the floor, that will be a solid lineup.
This roster is going to take a lot of mixing and matching because just about every player has unique strengths and weaknesses.
Also, my earlier posts about Moss aren’t to say he won’t be a good player. I think he will be. But I also think everyone has to be prepared for the 0-5’s as much as the 6-8’s. There will be nights where he will score less than 5 points. On those nights (6 such games in conference play last year, including three games where he scored 0 points), someone else has to step up on the perimeter. There will be other nights where he gets 15+ (4 games like that in conference, including a couple of 20+ point games), where we will be able to afford an off night from someone else. Moss will average 10-12 points by mixing 20 point games with 2 point games. He’s not a guy that you write in his points before the night starts like Dedric was last year.
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@FarmerJayhawk A 0.9% difference at those levels is negligible. It essentially amounts to one more play run through Doke every 2-3 games. This year, I wouldn’t be shocked if Doke’s usage rate goes up to the 35% range.
The biggest reason I think Dave can play some 4 on offense this year is because of his continued weight loss and reshaping of his body. We know that’s something he’s dedicated to and has the work ethic off the court to do what he needs to do. The next step in the process is increasing his flexible which will increase his athleticism to the point that he won’t be overmatched against most 4’s.
I don’t think he’ll play extended minutes with Doke, maybe 5 or so per game and probably 15 or so alongside Silvio. I really don’t think matters which one of Doke or Silvio he’s out there with, I think he’ll be the 4 on the offensive end of the floor doing what T-Rob did when he played next to Withey. 2011-12 T-Rob is the offensive blueprint for McCormack this year. The benefit of that is his mid range can pull a defender away from the paint which opens up driving lanes for the guards and slows down the time to double Doke. If he can hit a top of the key 3, that also opens up the paint. This is why it’s also important for Silvio to develop that shot as well.
On defense, because I don’t think Dave will spend much time alongside Doke, I don’t think Dave guarding a 4 for a few minutes a game is going to be an issue. If Dave progresses enough to where he can consistently guard opposing 4’s while he’s playing with Silvio, that hides his rebounding weaknesses and would allow Silvio to clean up on the glass.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 The differences between T-Rob and Dave are pretty stark. T-Rob was always known as a really bouncy, high motor athlete and that didn’t change once he put on good weight at KU. Dave is athletically challenged. Almost every scout has commented he’s an absolute liability defending away from the basket, where Robinson was not. Even when he gets his body right, he still won’t be even an average athlete for the 4 spot. He’s much, much better in the paint. We won’t be able to switch much of anything with both he and Doke out there. The one thing he would be able to do is make the entry pass in the high low. And that’s it. That’s all he’s got as a 4 man.
I don’t buy the 2012 parallel for a few reasons. First is Withey was much more mobile than Doke, and could knock down the occasional midrange jumper if need be. Doke can’t hit anything from outside the paint. T-Rob was also a fierce rebounder where Withey wasn’t. McCormack and Withey actually had similar percentages in 18-19 and 11-12. If anything, McCormack is more like Withey than T-Rob. Had some touch for a center, not a great rebounder, but Dave isn’t really a shot blocker, he was about the same as Dedric last year in block %. If anyone on the squad this year should look at Thomas’s tape and try to emulate him, it’s Silvio. Both have similar builds and skillsets. Thomas and Dave are really far apart. I think Dave’s ceiling is a pretty skilled but athletically limited 5 with a really good motor. Nothing like Thomas. Silvio on the other hand has an elite motor and rebounding skills to go along with very good athleticism and not a lot of skill on offense. At least not that we’ve seen yet, but he did have a reputation of having a developing offensive skillset at IMG.
I think Wilson is the better option as the backup 4. He’s obviously much more skilled offensively than McCormack, is an above average athlete for a 4, and still has the size to not get worked by a lot of 4’s. And he can space the floor to allow Dotson and Garrett to drive. It would be breaking tendency for Self to cut his big rotation to 3 if he has the bodies to play 4. I can see some Perry Ellis in Wilson’s game, which Bill loves.
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@FarmerJayhawk I’m not comparing the athleticism of Dave and T-Rob because T-Rob is the better athlete. That doesn’t mean you can’t look at a year when someone with T-Rob’s size was used as a 4 because of having the less athletic and mobile Jeff Withey playing along side him and use some of those sets on offense with Dave and Doke. It doesn’t mean you run the entire 2012 playbook because Doke can’t do a lot of things that Withey could do.
Based on the camp scrimmage footage out there, Dave looked more athletic than last season. Those scouting reports on Dave’s athleticism are mostly from his HS time when he was still out of shape and pushing 300 lbs. The difference in Dave between the McDonald’s game and when the season started was significant and he looked much better in November than he did in April. Dave said during those summer camps in June that he was down to 260 lbs., I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s down to 250-255 lbs. when this season starts.
Again, I don’t think Dave and Doke play more than about 5 minutes or so together so it’s not like I’m advocating extended minutes from those two together and Self doesn’t do a lot of switching outside the end of the shot clock anyway so I don’t see that being a big issue with those two playing limited minutes together. With Dave and Silvio together, they should each be able to spread the floor and be interchangeable in offensive sets when together. Because Silvio is the better rebounder, that’s why I think Dave would play more away from the basket than Silvio will because it will mask Dave’s weaknesses on the glass while allowing Silvio to clean up the boards.
As for Wilson as a stretch 4, Ellis is the comparison. Wilson is an average at best athlete like Ellis, he’s a below average rebounder like Ellis for his size, he’s not a great shooter (sub 40% from 3 every year), so probably won’t be anything more than about 30% from 3 this season and not giving defenders a reason to guard him close on the perimeter. He so doesn’t have great handles so when he drives, he’ll probably get the ball poked away quite a bit. The one area I think Wilson is better out of the gate than Ellis is his vertical. Ellis was always a below the rim player and Wilson has enough hops to be able to eventually finish through contact.
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@FarmerJayhawk Yeah, anything under ten minutes doesn’t count.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 By whose definition? Not mine. I say that if someone plays 3 or 10 minutes a game then those minutes count. Unless, ofcourse, we are not going to count their points, rebounds, assists, whatever. But that’s fine, you and whoever else can if you want to call it an eight man rotation while Bill plays ten or eleven guys every game.
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KUSTEVE said:
@jayballer73 You have to look past the way he frames the issue and read his salient point. Yes, it would be nice if he learned some phrases like …“my opinion is” or " I believe", but that said, he is a passionate KU fan, and he participates heavily on the boards. And he is pretty damn sharp in his analysis…
True, and I remember him coming to Coach Marco’s defense during the beer drenched Marcus Garrett debate, Lol!
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@Marco You’ll notice if you look at those players who average less than 10 mpg typically don’t play every game. They will typically have some DNP’s throughout the season. Even if a player averages 7-8 mpg, if they don’t play every game, they aren’t a rotation player. They’re a player whose minutes are dictated by stuff like foul trouble or giving someone a breather before a TV timeout to get that rotation player a couple extra minutes of a break in real time.
Playing 3 minutes in a game because someone picked up their second foul before halftime doesn’t make that player a rotation player.
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Marco said:
@FarmerJayhawk Yeah, anything under ten doesn’t count.
As far as being a rotation guy, <10 MPG with multiple DNP-CD’s doesn’t count.
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@BShark I don’t see Coach really wanting to play slow this year.
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@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think Dave will play alot of 4, either. He looked, at times, somewhat clumsy out there (maybe due to his motor) this past season. We’ll see.
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Marco said:
@FarmerJayhawk I don’t see Dave playing alot of 4, either. He looked, at times, somewhat clumsy out there last (maybe just due to his motor) year. We’ll see.
I think a lot of that had to do with how rapidly he’s transformed his body. Check out an Oak Hill game from his senior year vs. late in the year last year. Give Dave a ton of credit because like Tex said, he’s gone from 300+ to 260 and pretty cut.
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@Marco @FarmerJayhawk I was impressed with how Dave was coming along by the end of the year. He was moving quite well defensively.
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@FarmerJayhawk Hey, I’m not knocking Dave. You may be right. He is going to be vital this year.
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FarmerJayhawk said:
Marco said:
@FarmerJayhawk I don’t see Dave playing alot of 4, either. He looked, at times, somewhat clumsy out there last (maybe just due to his motor) year. We’ll see.
I think a lot of that had to do with how rapidly he’s transformed his body. Check out an Oak Hill game from his senior year vs. late in the year last year. Give Dave a ton of credit because like Tex said, he’s gone from 300+ to 260 and pretty cut.
You may be on to something there.
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BShark said:
@Marco @FarmerJayhawk I was impressed with how Dave was coming along by the end of the year. He was moving quite well defensively.
True. He was much better by the end of the year, including being in position
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The best thing about Freshman is they become Sophomores.
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Marco said:
@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think Dave will play alot of 4, either. He looked, at times, somewhat clumsy out there (maybe due to his motor) this past season. We’ll see.
Been hearing quite a bit about Dave this off season. - -I am pretty sure - -getting old mind you but seems like not that long ago - there was an interview with Coach - -ask who the most improved player had been in the off season - - His response?
David McCormack hands down he said - -pretty sure I remember that - -anyone else remember seeing that? - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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jayballer73 said:
Marco said:
@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think Dave will play alot of 4, either. He looked, at times, somewhat clumsy out there (maybe due to his motor) this past season. We’ll see.
Been hearing quite a bit about Dave this off season. - -I am pretty sure - -getting old mind you but seems like not that long ago - there was an interview with Coach - -ask who the most improved player had been in the off season - - His response?
David McCormack hands down he said - -pretty sure I remember that - -anyone else remember seeing that? - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
Yeah, I remember that @jayballer73 and believe him. If that guy, Big Dave, will be able to this season play both the 5 and 4 THEN LOOK OUT!
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Bill Self said Dedric is the best passer we have ever had and that Q was a stud guard.
Also who could forget Merv Lindsay?
“He has great potential and has the ability to help us this season. He is a very athletic wing who is a good shooter. Like all the incoming freshmen we have, as Merv gets stronger, he will continue to develop.”
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And I like Dave a lot, it’s just hard to take offseason Bill seriously. He says a lot of crazy things.
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You are right to tamper down PT minutes expectations. I think it can be safe to say that if we have 10 guys getting a lot of shared minutes, we are having some sour play and Self is looking for someone to step forward.
But I do think most of our freshmen he prizes will get a few minutes. Enough to keep them wanting to stay at Kansas. These days are not like the good ol’ days, where players would wait patiently for some minutes they would earn. There are record transfers and Bill is aware of it and tries to keep his troops happy. I venture to say that when he does lose a player he isn’t too sad about it and probably agrees with the player that he needs to move on.
I usually agree pretty close to Bill’s distribution of minutes. Occasionally, I’d like to see a few guys get more minutes for future development sake. I can’t realistically argue too much with a HOFr coach. Who the heck am I?
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Dave was super spastic early on. He looked like he was riding a bull with no hands half the time. After he settled down late in the season, he looked pretty good. I’m hopeful he can continue that trajectory of rapid improvement. Big 12 first team 2020.
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dylans said:
Dave was super spastic early on. He looked like he was riding a bull with no hands half the time. After he settled down late in the season, he looked pretty good. I’m hopeful he can continue that trajectory of rapid improvement. Big 12 first team 2020.
Good question… Who will the Jayhawks offer as Big12 1st, 2nd or 3rd team?
