KU/TUCKY ...THE 2 BEST TEAMS
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There are a lot of factors at work in the changing recruiting dynamic.
First and foremost, we can look at the NBA Draft in 2016. That draft really shifted the dynamic as far as whether or not you had to attend a blue blood as an OAD in order to get picked in the lottery. Ben Simmons went first out of an LSU team that didn’t make the tournament. Jaylen Brown went third from an underwhelming Cal team. Kris Dunn went fifth from a Providence squad that was middling at best. Players from Gonzaga, Utah, Baylor and Washington were also picked in the lottery.
That draft showed that, so long as you went to a school where you could perform, team results in college did not matter. You didn’t need to win a national title or go deep in the tournament. Last year’s recruits noticed to some degree. Duke was still loaded, but OAD’s were at Texas (Mo Bamba), Alabama (Collin Sexton), Oklahoma (Trae Young), Miami (Lonnie Walker), Oregon (Troy Brown), Missouri (Michael Porter), Texas Tech (Zhaire Smith), and national champion Villanova (Omari Spellman). Additionally sophomores from Wichita State, Villanova, Maryland, Georgia Tech, and Texas A&M.
The NBA’s scouting apparatus has improved to the point that they don’t need players to cluster to evaluate them. There’s so much more video of players at AAU tournaments that, even for freshmen, an NBA scout will have 2-3 years of footage on them, and a lot of that will be against higher end competition at AAU tournaments.
We have to remember that even P5 basketball doesn’t always provide good scouting for players. Think about a guy like Svi at KU. Playing for KU last year, let’s count the number of games he played against NBA caliber wings - Kentucky, Texas Tech (x2), Duke, Villanova. That’s five total games. Let’s see how many games he had against fringe NBA talent - Syracuse, Arizona State, Kansas State (x3), Clemson. That’s another six games. KU played 39 games last year. 28 of those were more or less worthless in evaluating a wing player.
If two thirds of the schedule at a blue blood isn’t really critical to evaluation, why not go to a program that is more of a showcase. Ben Simmons was asked to be the focal point of the offense at LSU, where he would have been moved off the ball at a blue blood. He plays on the ball for the Sixers. LSU prepared him for his NBA role more than a year at KU, Duke, Kentucky, etc. would have.
Collin Sexton will be a scoring PG in the NBA. At KU, he would have likely been asked to either move off the ball (Graham would have run the point), or play a combo guard role. Being at Alabama fit more into his NBA role.
Players are looking for situations that will prepare them for the NBA. Sometimes that will be a blue blood (Newman and Svi both benefited by being at KU). Other times, it won’t matter (Michael Porter played three games last year and was still a lottery pick). Still other times, going to a place where you have freedom will be important (Trae Young is a good example of this - he would never have had that type of freedom at a blue blood like Duke, UK or KU).
This year will be telling in that regard. Keep an eye on Jordan Brown (Nevada), Jaylen Hoard (Wake Forest) and Vanderbilt (Darius Garland and Simisola Shittu). If those guys end up being OADs, it may give even more OADs a reason to look for fit rather than history when considering schools.
Keep an eye out for how Anfernee Simons does in the G-League as well. If he is successful going that route this year, players like Charles Bassey (Western Kentucky) and others that are wrapped up in this web may go the same route. The NBA collective bargaining agreement can end after the 2023 season, so the OAD rule won’t change before then, but that could signal the beginning of a huge change. Until then, talent could continue to spread out across different schools.
There is also the factor that there is a P5 bump in recruiting rankings. If a player suddenly gets an offer from a P5 school, his ranking will rise, while a player that is being considered by mostly mid majors will have his ranking held down. Take a guy like Jermaine Harris. He was considering the following schools - Rhode Island (his ultimate pick), West Virginia and Xavier. No major bump. Then watch a guy like Derek Culver, who was considering, among others, Arizona, Cincinnati and Kansas before picking West Virginia. Harris is ranked 90. Culver is ranked 63. You watch their video and you don’t see much separation. I would guess that if Harris had KU considering him, he would have ranked in the 60s. Now, neither Culver nor Harris would have ultimately come to KU or even played much had they picked the Jayhawks. But having KU consider them is worth 10 spots in the recruiting rankings. Having multiple big time schools consider is worth even more.
That inflates some rankings even if guys aren’t really any better than similar players that have already signed with mid majors.
Look at our own Frank Mason and Devonte Graham. When no one was looking at those guys, they were unranked. As soon as KU considered them, they became top 100 recruits. Did they suddenly get better than 50-75 guys? No. They were always better than those guys. Devonte Graham would have destroyed at Appalachian State. He would have been a conference player of the year candidate as a freshman. He would have led them to the NCAA tournament and eventually been hailed as a sleeper pick for possible NBA consideration. Coming to KU just moved him up the rankings and got him closer to where he should have been to begin with.
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@jaybate-1.0 ehh Duke signed guys ranked 1,2,3. I think they’ll be ok.
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Terrific survey of the recent dynamics. Thx. Am makes a lot of sense.
Now, I want you to take a cut at another related circumstance, if you would be so kind.
The dynamics you delineated point to a procession toward deconcentration of OADs.
The current degree of deconcentration seems remarkably similar to what it was before concentration manifested and culminated 9-10 OAD concentrations at a few Nike schools (Duke, UK), along with 2-3 concentrations at a few adidas schools.
Much of college basketball history has been marked broadly dispersed (deconcentrationed) top talent.
UCLA had a run of top talent in the 1960s that many attribute to Sam Gilbert simply out bidding for the top talent.
UNC had a monster run of talent in the 1970s to 1980s that coincided with Dean and Roy having a strikingly close relationship with Sonny Vacarro and Nike.
Out side of these two extended concentrations, since then top talent has not clumped so asymmetrically, for extended periods except at UK and Duke.
What dynamics triggered talent to clump so asymmetrically at Duke and UK? Since Cal got to UK, Duke and UK have really been loaded. Even there “down” years they tend to have awesome levels of the kinds of talent (OAD/5-stars at 1 and 5 that other programs, like KU, just can’t match.
Are Duke and UK using a Gilbert like Wooden? Or a favorable shoeco relationship like Dean and Roy in the old days at UNC?
Or are Duke and UK just the first schools to asymmetrically dominate recruiting for an extended period the old fashioned way by melting mothers hearts?
How were they able to get and hold their edge in top talent at the 1 and 5 and attain generally better depth than other elite programs, and then rather suddenly lose their edge to deconcentration?
What were the dynamics of concentration that seemed to coincide, though perhaps only coincidentally, with an apparently escalating competition between Nike and adidas, that then manifested in deconcentration, again perhaps only coincidentally, as adidas’ bid to take market share from Nike appeared to falter?
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Yes, but 3 guys hardly equal 9-10, right?
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It’s all cyclical. Talent will sometimes cluster before re-distributing itself more evenly. Look at housing booms on a local level. There will be a “hot” neighborhood for a few years, then things re-distribute themselves for a while before another neighborhood becomes “hot.” That’s just how trends work.
Now, of course, there are underlying factors that drive trends. Shoe relationships certainly play a part, along with popularity, TV time, success, etc.
Calipari, for example, had an incredible run of PGs, with Rose, Evans, Wall, Knight going 1, 4, 1, 8 in the NBA draft in consecutive years. If you were a PG watching that happen as a prospect, you had to at least consider Kentucky. To not do so ignored the clear trend of the time. Duke has traditionally had good big men - Laettner, Boozer, Brand, the Plumlee brothers, etc.
The one notable thing about big men is that collegiate big men can look much better than they end up being in the NBA. The competition at the college level is low enough for 20-30 of your games that you can rack up big stats against lesser opponents.
My guess is that we are on the other side of the cycle, where UK and Duke rode a big wave for a few years and now that wave has crested and is receding. Talent will re-distribute before again concentrating in a few years (probably after the NBA rule change) when non OAD top players will gather at a handful of schools, then the talent will again re-distribute. Waves and Crests.
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I have no doubt that every player that signs with Dook and UK are being taken care of handsomely. I remember when Dook couldn’t recruit a decent big man to save their life for years, and then it all changed practically overnite. Money is changing hands, but I’ll bet we won’t ever hear about it. We are Adidas… and we are on the wrong team with the NCAA. We are marked to go after. If we were a Nike school, all those little problems go away, because the rules only apply to Adidas schools.
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@jaybate-1.0 4 of the top ten and 1,2,3 is a pretty salty class. Kentucky is experiencing an off year, but it’s still a good year by anyone else’s standards.
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I would not call it an off year, #2 class with 4 5-stars and 1 4-star…same as Duke. Just sayin’…
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@JayHawkFanToo for anyone be not named Kentucky the number 2 class would be great. Just sayin.
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Speaking of flat blowing up, Svi Mania is real, baby!
http://www2.kusports.com/weblogs/smithology/2018/jul/13/summer-svi-lakers-2nd-rounder-mykhailiuk/
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dylans said:
@jaybate-1.0 4 of the top ten and 1,2,3 is a pretty salty class. Kentucky is experiencing an off year, but it’s still a good year by anyone else’s standards.
—————————— OMG YES!
TPTB JUST APPEAR TO KEEP FINDING NEW WAYS TO STACK THE DECK TO MAKE IT NOT LOOK SO UNSIGHTLY.
But gain…
3<10
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@jaybate-1.0 who had 10 of the top 10? I’m confused as to your argument. The number 1 & 2 recruiting classes in the nation aren’t good enough? I think we’d be pretty upbeat if KU had such a class.
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I’m not following your argument even a little.
Do u really not recall UK’s 6 OAD/TAD team of 2012? Or it’s 8-9-10 OAD/TAD teams after?
“Only” 3 OADs ranked 1, 2, 3 seems quite a come down from 6-10 OAD/TADs regardless of their rank.
And that 2012 UK team with “only” 6 OAD/TADs included three screaming studs at 1, 3 and 5!!!
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UK had 4 guys drafted from the class of 2010, 3 in 2011, 3 in 2012, 4 in 2013, 4 in 2014, 2 in 2015, 3 in 2016, and however many this year. Not all drafted were Freshmen, but most were.
3 OADs would be pretty par for the course. The only time Cal had line changes was due to returning players as well as a stacked class.
Could you point me towards the class you are referencing? Maybe Duke? I don’t see 10 OADs on a team. There were guys Cal forced out after their freshman year to make room like Gabriel, maybe that has inflated your impression?
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Are you referencing the draft of 2015 with 6 UK guys selected? 3 freshmen, 2 soph, 1 junior. 2012 they had 2 soph and 3 freshmen drafted.
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I like our chances in Rupp. Throttle? I don’t see us doing a huge point win, but I could see us controlling the game most of the time. I think a really big win would be if we could come out of there with a 10-point win.
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drgnslayr said:
I like our chances in Rupp. Throttle? I don’t see us doing a huge point win, but I could see us controlling the game most of the time. I think a really big win would be if we could come out of there with a 10-point win.
ya I just don’t see us throttling them in Rupp - -got to many young players ourself. - - Grimes - - Dotson - - McCormack- - DeSousa. - If we can come out of Rupp with a 10 point win - - works for me. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@drgnslayr I am engaging in wishful thinking. The most annoying fan in all of college basketball happens to be a UK Mildcat fan down to the tattoo on his ass ( I don’t actually know if he has a tattoo on his ass, but if his ass looked anything like his face, it might be an improvement). And the thought of tormenting him for a year …well, as much as I try to resist such lowbrow pursuits, and the stark pettiness of mocking somebody for an entire year …well, I’m not sure that any Mildcat hatin’ KU fan could get away from that. It’s going to be like a 2nd piece of cherry cheesecake.
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I used to vent all day long on Cal and his ways. Life is just too short for me to stay thinking about Cal. I think I fear more dominance coming from Duke and Nova. Cal looks silly every year except in 2012 (and that was the Anthony Davis show more than anything). Typically, he’s a hype monster who has to put his tail between his legs in March and make up excuses for why they didn’t win it all with their “hamburger roster.”
Cal’s perception of dominating college basketball is largely over. I’d say Duke and Nova have passed him up, and we are soon to do the same. Time for us to look forward, not behind us!
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Unless Wright has some tricks up his sleeve his run is over this year.
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Agreed. Wright no doubt will benefit from the NCAA championship but he and Marshall at WSU had what I call their “perfect storms” when a number of lower ranked players developed way beyond expectations and lifted the programs way above their norms but they will be coming down to earth now, Wichita State more so.
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Agree Wichita St is headed for a down season, if they make the post-season with that roster Marshall is a Magician. McDuffie will have to become a 20 point scorer for them to have any chance in the AAC this season.
Wright just lost an unbelievable amount of talent. It’s not as if the cupboard is bare, he will have 3 seniors likely in the starting lineup but I have no idea who starts in the post besides Paschall. Spellman gave them an element they will severely lack this season, size, athleticism. The freshman they signed are very good. A lot of role players will have to step up their game. A bottom half type Top 25 team is their ceiling imo
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I’m just speaking in general terms here… not so much just about the upcoming year.
I know plenty of unhappy UK fans. I don’t even poke them with a stick anymore because they are plain frustrated. And I don’t go on and on about having all that talent but not able to capture another crown.
Cal has run a hype machine for so many years. Keep the fanbase dreaming ahead, regardless what is currently happening.
Duke and Nova are proven. Not just one title. And though Self only has one title, he doesn’t go out on the hype circuit trying to keep the fans going.
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Since Cal went to UK (2010 season), here are the teams with the most Final Fours:
- Kentucky - 4 (2011, 2012, 2014, 2015)
Tied for second
Villanova (2016, 2018) UConn (2011, 2014) Duke (2010, 2015) North Carolina (2016, 2017) Louisville (2012, 2013) Kansas (2012, 2018) Michigan State (2010, 2015) Wisconsin (2014, 2015) Michigan (2013, 2018) Syracuse (2013, 2017)
Duke and Villanova have won titles in both Final Four trips they have made. So did UConn, but they have posted losing records more often than they have won titles since 2010. But they also only have two trips. Kentucky has only won once, but has been there four times. That’s not exactly unproven, or fanbase dreaming. The current Final Four drought at Kentucky (three seasons) is the longest since Calipari arrived in Lexington. Duke went four seasons between trips, and hasn’t been back in the same amount of time as Kentucky. Nova has gone twice in three years, but didn’t have a trip since 2009 before that. Izzo has the same droughts as Coach K. Self had a five season drought between 2012 and this past season. Roy Williams went from 2009 to 2016 without a trip to the Final Four.
That doesn’t mean Kentucky will automatically make it to the Final Four this year, obviously. But they certainly have a team that is capable of that.
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Okay, makes sense then.
Agree with pretty much everything else. While it would be great to beat Nova in Allen Fieldhouse I’ll value the win in Rupp more!
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I might be alone but I don’t see Kentucky being the best team in their own conference. I might be placing too much faith in Rick Barnes but he’s got a team capable of being in the Top 10 all year
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On paper Kentucky has a nice combination of top talent coming in and good talent coming back which gives them more experience that they had in the past. Travis is perhaps the key piece since it gives them an experienced scorer and rebounder. If Calipari cannot make the Final four with this team he will be in trouble.
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@BeddieKU23 Marsha lost 2 coaches this yr too. Losing the reeves kid to ou really hurt.
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Ouch didn’t know that. Did his wife join the staff?
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BeddieKU23 said:
Ouch didn’t know that. Did his wife join the staff?
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- Now you stop that lol . - - well wait a minute , 2nd thought I think Marsha’s wife did - -why yes she did join the staff. - -Think she is in charge of the 6 point refreshments - only one issue that being trying to keep her out of it lol – ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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