How should Jay attack the find a way boys?
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@Blown Doke has been really really foul prone since he was injured. I tend to agree with you that he will likely foul out yet again and that Jay’s gameplan will be a large part of those fouls.
But with my glass half full optimism I will hope that Doke is the X factor in this game and that he has the best post season performance of his young career. 20 and 10 from Doke (with 4-5 earth shattering dunks) with only 4 fouls would be a thing of beauty!
Rock Chalk!
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We need to use Doke in heavy screen schemes to try to get Nova to switch, leaving him in a mismatch in the low post.
Doke has to watch his fouls, because their strategy when Doke has the ball in the low post against a smaller man is to draw fouls.
Doke has to watch dropping his shoulder, or using a hook on his pivots.
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drgnslayr said:
Doke has to watch dropping his shoulder, or using a hook on his pivots.
I agree. The hooking in particular is a recent development that I am sure the coaching staff is working on eliminating.
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@JayHawkFanToo @drgnslayr It appears to me on the hooking, guys usually slide by if they use just the upper arm and don’t create significant contact. When the lower arm/hand are involved, it’s an easy whistle. Now, Doke did get called a few games back for just the upper arm, but he really shook the defender with the impact. I think the hooking is just a focal point for refs with Doke. They’re looking for it with him.
Against Duke, the hooking was a bad call. It was hooking to be sure, but it should have been called a travel. Replay showed a clear travel if you look at it.
@Blown Against Nova, Silvio might be just as effective, but in a different way. I don’t fear Doke being on the bench for stretches. He will be. Bank on it. So Silvo better buckle it up.
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If dokes mom gets there, skys the limit for him! I know, wishful thinking
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@Crimsonorblue22 spoken like a mama
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The MOM FACTOR is real.
KENPOM needs to start building it into his models.
The gamblers need to account for it, too.
Every game assessment should take it into account.
How many mothers of rotation guys will be there?
Any team with MUA in mothers has to be given a sharp edge.
Seriously.
Devonte’s mother is good for about 10 points more per game from DG and 4 rpgs more, as well. I think DG makes fewer TOs also.
I am starting to call it the LUV/EAR EFFECT.
These mothers’ love puts them in that zone of not to little and not too much concentration (i.e., a sense of security I suppose), and these mothers’ willingness to drag them to their rooms for dogging it gets them on an edge.
I think fathers often have a similar effect, also, but currently our culture, especially our African American subculture, has been so devastated by the insidious combination of job outsourcing and drug dumping and marijuana arrests (apparently largely done to keep the private prisons occupancy rates up, and keep the social unrest from hollow-out economics down) that one parent families are the new normal. So: we notice it as THE MOM FACTOR presently, but we can hope and pray that over time all Americans begin to understand that they have been had by the private oligarchy’s vicious divide and conquer identity politics and begin to pull together again as one group–AMERICANS–and we get the fathers and mothers back together raising their kids and amping them for games, etc.
End the divide conquer!!
Restore the family NOW!
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Blown said:
The same way he did in 2016. Beat our offensive players to their spots. Cut off handoffs. Block the passing lanes.
This will be one of those games that Self should revisit his previous March Carney Loss.
You are really onto something here with them beating our players to spots and denying handoffs.
Did you notice that against Duke KU almost never ran the weave. I suppose that was related to Duke playing predominantly zone defense, but…
What I wanted to call your attention to, though, is that KU maybe no longer needs to run the weave to be effective. Put another way, maybe Self has addressed the problem you have identified. Maybe he has decided to take what they give us and not force the weave–just take it if it is not being denied.
You point really fascinates me.
Self SHOULD have an alternative to weaving, if teams decide to deny the weave.
I guess we are going to find out, because it makes sense that Way Wrong, er, Jay Wright, would try denying the weave again.
If Coach Self were NOT prepared for Wright denying the weave, then you get to give Coach Self a well deserved “See, I told you so.”
Rock Chalk!
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Kcmatt7 said:
My hope is that we school Paschall a couple of times on the Perimeter and they have to go small with 4 guards to matchup defensively.
Won’t it be interesting to see whether Self plays it their way, or tries to force them into a 4 guard perimeter?
Self’s tendency over the years has been to start out trying to play it anyway they want and so try to beat them at their own game. Doing so is VERY demoralizing to an opponent. If it works, the opposing coach has to default into something they are not as good at, while feeling demoralized, and KU then usually walks away and leaves them.
And if playing it their way doesn’t work, then Self gets to fall back into playing it our strongest way, and that usually stems the tide, until Self can come up with something specially tailored in the moment for the second half.
Self is a wascally wabbit, as Elmer Fudd used to say.
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Playing any kind of conventional zone against a team with 5 three point shooters would be very, very risky.
But I agree with you that it would help to force Nova into some of the recognition problems we faced against Duke with a mix of morphing zones and M2M.
But I can never tell with Self. I ALWAYS think switching in and out of zones to trigger recognition issues makes sense, but he only rarely resorts to it, and I have never been able to figure out exactly WHY he decides to resort to it. Sometimes, I think he is just very pragmatic. It appears he goes into every game intending to play M2M the entire game and only switches to a zone when it isn’t working. And even then Self prefers wonky zones. He was famous for a few years for revitalizing the 3-2 junk zone. And this season, mid season he tried a lite version of Coach K’s morphing zone.
God only knows what he has been saving up for a rainy day this time.
But I suspect we will see it against Nova.
Self’s small N history has been to leave it all on the floor (use the impressive wrinkles) in the Semis and “figure out” a way to win in the Finals.
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@jaybate-1.0 His Final Four record is 3-1. I wonder what him and the staff and Larry Brown have cooked up for Nova. It should be fascinating to watch.
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The weave is about getting the other team to switch to then get a mismatch. That mismatch with our four guards leads to somebody driving to finish or draw and dish for an uncontested 3. The problem with nova is they can switch everything and not be presented with a mismatch.
Think about what offense is and always will be the most predominate in the NBA, the pick and roll. When athletes are equal in ability you then must force the defense to make quick decisions and the pick and roll does this. Of course the more modern version of this really makes it difficult, the pick and pop.
I bet anything our guards do more pick and pop this game. If they hedge you drive if they are slow then the 3 ball for the picker is wide open. Once Nova decides which where they play then we can pick the picker with Silvio or Doke.
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Great point about LB.
I hope he talks to Eddie, too.
And Janks. I always thought Janks and Bill were very creative together.
I always hope Self gets a set of “suggested plans for attack” from LB, Eddie, and Janks.
He probably doesn’t, but what a great kitchen cabinet they comprise.
I might even call Doc Sadler about defending 5 trey ballers; that is to me the unique defensive issue, and one noted by Self already. Regarding Doc, he was kind of a goof ball that probably didn’t mesh will with Bill in some ways, but I always thought he brought some additional defensive insight (more flexibility) to Self that season he was with KU.
I also wouldn’t hesitate to call Rick Pitino about defense. I have a hunch Rick would like to get even with someone for what has been done to him for speaking out about agents and agent runners that one time and I always felt there was not much love lost between Rick and Jay Wrong.
Containing 5 three point shooters is kind of unprecedented and a really interesting strategic/tactical problem to address. There are many approaches one could take, because it is such a unique problem, historically speaking. Not many approaches can be ruled out as possible counters to it.
All coaches and teams become prisoners of their successful experience.
Nova has grown used to winning with 5 trey ballers; this presents some possible counters.
One counter is to simply focus on early foul-up of just one of their trey ballers. If Nova were to have to play without just one, they would not be themselves at all.
Another is to identify which if any of their trey ballers are largely spot shooters and then deny those players their spots; that has nearly the same effect as denying them one of their shooters with foul up.
Another is simply to focus on pushing their perimeter out 2-3 feet farther out than they like and let the added distance reduce their 3pt% be cut about 5-10%; this is much tougher to accomplish and leads to more blow-by drives and that exposes our bigs to more fouling. It also requires playing quite a bit of three quarter court zone press, preferably a 2-2-1 to force them to start their offense farther out so the treys come farther out.
I think Mitch and Silvio are going to play a lot today, because I think our bigs are going to have to chase 25- feet out quite a bit of the time.
The best zone to play for stopping the outside shot is to morph 1-3-1 matchup (MSU’s old matchup zone it played with Magic and that Coach K has dusted off) and 2-3 stretch where they outside base line guys deny the corner three that so many practice and take, and hope the 2 outfront guys can stretch and hustle. But you have to switch between these two or the opponent just sets up and takes the trey out front against the 2-3, or out of the corner against the 1-3-1.
I have this idea of a 4-1 match up zone, where the 4 outside guys form an umbrella zone and Doke/Silvio play a one man zone inside. The idea is that if they send their post out to trey shoot, the umbrella zone crowds in and helps where ever the opposing post man goes to on the perimeter and we take our chances on them getting a few open shots, while we get ALL the rebounds. This is a hedge between their making a few more wide open shots and us denying them all second shots. I haven’t looked at Nova’s second shot numbers, so I don’t know if they rely heavily on second shots or not.
Another interesting angle to to take that could be done with KU’s preferred M2M without Jay Wrong and Nova really realizing it would be to do research on which 3 point spots on the floor are subject to the most DOME EFFECT; i.e., where on the floor outside the three point stripe is the distortion of the dome most and least statistically significant in altering 3pt shooting percentage, and then use our defenders to funnel Nova’s trey shots into the lowest percentage 3point shots in a dome. So far, I have never read that any statisticians have looked into and established this, but I am pretty confident that DOME EFFECT would vary in magnitude of effect around the floor. This would be a terrific and hard for Jay to identify defensive technique, if Jay has not already looked into this localization of DOME EFFECT himself yet. And even if he has, KU’s M2M should exploit this effect. And now that I am thinking about it, Match-Up Zones could EASILY be designed to guard the high percentage zones beyond the trey stripe and to leave relatively unguarded the low percentage zones outside, maybe even with only 4 perimeter defenders and leaving Doke protecting the rim inside and NOT chasing. Oooh, I like this ALOT!! Sucker Nova into shooting a lot of treys from undefended zone regions outside with their big man floating outside into low percentage areas triggered by DOME EFFECT and use our 4 men on the perimeter to guard the regions which least DOME EFFECt.
And one could keep going with this.
Bottom line 5 trey shooters offers Nova a lot of ways to play, if these guys are canning the trey that night in a big Dome.
But we have a lot of ways to deal with it, too.
Gosh, I love this game. It is so much more interesting than chess and global thermonuclear war!!!
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@jaybate-1.0 I suggested that we run a zone, and everybody said there’s no way it would work. But, I distinctly remember a Washington team that ran a “tweaked” zone against us, and beat us with it. So, it’s a matter of tweaking the zone, as you said. i like the 1-3–1.
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KU played extremely poorly that game. Graham 3 points, Svi,. 8 point, Malik 8 points. KU shot 25% from 3 on only 20 attempts and 4-8 FTs.
The players are greatly improved and no way we see a game with those numbers again. KU has seen all kinds of zones since then and none had similar results.
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Yes, you are on the right track. I mean I just finished another post, where I finally went to the Nova web site and sized up their team and the matchup and they are just very imposing. I likened them to our Morri team that Shaka beat, only we are not meeting them on one days rest after playing a Princeton team, as Shaka met our team with.
Frankly, I’m now less worried about them beating us outside, than inside.
Much as I like Vick, Vick vs. Bridges is a nightmare match up.
Svi vs. Spellman could turn into a nightmare matchup with out a lot of help.
A lot of what we do will depend on what Jay does, of course.
If Jay decides to use size, strength, numbers and refs to overpower us and beat us down out of the blocks, I think we have to switch a lot between zone and M2M and between different zones to try to turn it into a 20 minute game, instead of a 40 minute game.
We need to zone press some to force them to start farther out.
But Self doesn’t do these sorts of things much.
He prefers to do subtle things with the M2M, as he did a did against Duke.
I would expect some brief and intermittent stretches of lane jumping defense, too.
I just think he has to disrupt quite a bit the first half to even make it to the second half with his team not overwhelmed and fouled up.
I don’t think KU can afford to let Bridges work on Vick, or Spellman to work on Svi, in ways that allow Bridges and Spellman to overpower Vick and Svi, or kick out for treys; that would be the death of us.
Hence, in M2M, we have to deny Bridges and Spellman the ball inside, and trap Bridges and Spellman from unexpected angles, and be prepared to use backside wings to run to contain Paschal long enough for our center to get back to Paschal. This exposes us to cross court passes to wide open dead eye trey shooters, but that seems preferable to letting Bridges and Spellman run wild.
With 6 trey shooters making 39% or higher from trey, its kind of a whack a mole game playing Nova.
But the key thing to remember IMHO, is that Nova has not played anyone that really guards as well as we do in a team defensive scheme; that was what Duke experienced, also. Nova has built its shooting percentages against outside defenders that don’t contend every trey and don’t get a hand in the face every shot. Nova’s trey shooters also aren’t used to having to chase as many trey shooters as we have all over the court on defense. Their legs will tire same as ours will, since we also haven’t faced chasing so many trey shooters. And the DOME EFFECT will rear sooner or later, along with the tired shooting legs. Thus, the guttiest defenders that can find ways to help to minimize their vulnerabilities in MUA are most likely to win this game, despite each team’s gaudy three point shooting stats.
I never bet against Self Defense in defensive matchups.
But the last time, Jay put it to us pretty good with the refs on his side.
We just have to hope Self has one more defensive rabbit in his hat we don’t know about.
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Looks like Bill is wearing his Bob Huggins top!!!
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Man this is going to be exciting to see these two matching wits.
Go, Bill, go!!!
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jaybate 1.0 said:
Man this is going to be exciting to see these two matching wits.
Go, Bill, go!!!
With some help from Larry Brown.
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@Blown Silvio will probably eat their bigs’ lunch still.
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@drgnslayr At first film review, screens seem like a weak point for Nova.
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@jaybate-1.0 If I tell him “I told you so” He might show me to his trophy case…
In addition to the scouting report Jay Wright nailed in '16 with cutting off our hand offs he also did two things that I really think changed the game. The team came out tight, and never got comfortable because of these wrinkles:
Wright started showing match up zone about 5 minutes into the game, which Self is notorious for struggling against.
And they turned up the heat on their traps in the 3/4 court press after they starting hitting a few shots.
Over the next 7-8 minutes Kansas didn’t make one shot and turned the ball over 8 or 9 times.
That was back when they tried beating the press with the lazy soft pass over the top of the trappers, and it didn’t put any pressure on them or make them pay for trying to pressure and trap. I think Self has evolved since then with his pressure break.
A few things that didn’t help…
Ellis missed a 2 foot bunny at the opening tip of the game, and charged on the next possession and he never was right the rest of the game.
Devontae’s fouls were something I will always remember as not being fair, but then again I bitch about fouls all the time anyway, so who knows: Cant trust me on that matter!!
Jamari provided no resistance at all when he came in against Ochefu.
The team was just tight. Selden airballed shots. Frank was short arming. Perry was short arming.
I felt Self had the better Team and players and Wright did a better job at coaching that day.
Let’s hope Self has a plan for the 3/4 court press, and the Match up Zone as well. Nova will chameleon in and out of those and the M2M D all night.
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Perry’s 2 offensive fouls set the tone.
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Wright does what I have always believed in doing: 3/4 press and alternate matchup zone with M2M. And within the matchup alternate between 1-3-1 and 2-3.
I am chagrined he has beaten Self to it.
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In '16 we hit 'Nova with one day to prepare. Wright won that battle with a very simple plan to stop Perry to get us out of our comfort zone, and lucked out with cold shooting from Selden, Svi and Mason. I like our chances a lot with 6 days prep and four upper classmen guards.
Self has solved the zone puzzle since the Washington game even if it is maddeningly slow as hell to watch.
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@JayHawkFanToo I was talking about us running a zone against Nova. Several people said( on another thread)" Jethro, that’s nuttier than a squirrel turd". Which I replied, it worked pretty well against us when we played Washington. So, the Washington reference was not a " what if" Nova were to run a zone defense against us, but rather… what if we played zone against them.
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“I think he takes those matchups very personally,” Newman said of Graham’s previous battles with bona fide stars. “And I think Saturday will be the same thing but, at the same time, he’s not going to try to do too much.”
Let’s hope not
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I heard Malik interviewing dg about his post D. Dg said he was a big guard
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@KUSTEVE You maybe up to something here. Washington guarded the 3-pt line and dared KU to score inside. I think Vick score 27 points that night, but rest of the team collectively laywd an egg.
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I’d like to know:
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Can Silvio play out along the perimeter with their 5 (who likes threes), or do we need Mitch?
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Will Graham be effective against Brunson on both sides of the ball?
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Do we surrender athleticism to anyone else besides Bridges?
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@betterfireE 1.) Yes, or at least Silvio is better than Dok at guarding the 3 pointers. We would peobably need Mitch, too. Villanova are alao tough at driving the lanes and in transitions as evident by scoring 40% of their points against TT from the FT line. Mitch is the best in positional defence, block shots, and taking charges. 2.) D’tae could be effective against Brunson, but he could get in foul trouble when Brunson post him up frequntly. 3.] Beidges does not out-athlete Vick; rather, he out-strengths, out-sizes, and perhaps out-tough Vick. For that matter, Brunson out-strengths Devonte. However, Dok out-strengths Spellman, de Sousa out-athletes Spellman.
Villanova is a tough out. We need everyone to have his A game Saturday.
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betterfireE said:
I’d like to know:
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Can Silvio play out along the perimeter with their 5 (who likes threes), or do we need Mitch?
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Will Graham be effective against Brunson on both sides of the ball?
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Do we surrender athleticism to anyone else besides Bridges?
- I would still prefer to put a guard on Spellman- with Svi but if its going to be a big I think we just roll the dice and adjust if needed to during the game. Spellman is a big dude, he’s not a bean pole like Bagley but Spellman for the most part has made his biggest impact in their offense shooting the 3. He can put the ball on the floor if defenders bail out to contest a shot as he’ll use a pump fake and has decent handles for a guy his size.
This is a tough matchup. I believe Self will go with Doke and Silvio/or Mitch on him and hope shots don’t fall or we have enough secondary help to limit his opportunities. If we take the last two games as any indication of how KU handles a pick and pop 4/5 man Skara/Donnal & Carter were left on an Island multiple times from what I remember. Spellman however is a better shooter then both of them so the %'s make it difficult to leave him open. If we respect his shot too much Nova has some advantages trying to take our guys 1 on 1 downhill without help.
I think Self is going to gameplan on offense to get him in foul trouble though. This could be an interesting development. We are worried that Doke will again foul himself out of stretches of this game but getting Spellman on the bench could absolutely change the game in KU’s favor. If they have to use Crosby-Roundtree for stretches he’s giving up 70 pounds to Doke and if they switch Paschall onto him Doke again has a favorable matchup. That would put CR on Svi which then creates a potentially big advantage.
- Tough question. I would say Graham can only be stopped by himself on offense. It’s been rather impressive seeing the transformation he’s made over the course of the season as a point guard and leader. Brunson is a solid defender but Graham has a quickness edge against him that I hope he’s able to use. Brunson is averaging 3 fouls a game in his last 3 so maybe Devonte is able to bait him into some cheap fouls. Devonte really hasn’t played great on offense this entire tournament. He carried us against Penn but that was more about the first half. Since then he’s been a sidekick to the Newman show which isn’t a bad thing. It’s kind of created this dynamic where Devonte doesn’t have to do it all on his own.
Defensively I think Brunson has an advantage. There isn’t a guard that can stop his old man back you down game. This is where I’m worried about fouls. Brunson has these “bait you” moves that he’s crafted. He can rise up over you and make a difficult mid-range or 8 footer. I just hope Devonte or whoever gets his assignment makes the shots difficult without fouling. We can live with Brunson having a big game as two of his bigger games on the year scoring wise Villanova lost. He’s a big time player who I have a ton of respect for.
- DiVincenzo is the other x factor athlete. In the Texas Tech game he had a few dunks, one off the bounce and a put back slam off a missed three that were big time plays. He’s deceptively bouncy, not like a Vick that has that gliding athletic ability and can rise up really high. DiVincenzo I thought made the plays that kept momentum alive for them in a game that was downright hard to watch offensively. Vick can match him but I’d imagine its either Malik or Devonte that gets him when he’s in the game.
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