Truths, damned truths, and more statistics
-
This is all very interesting fodder. However I’m not sure we can compare last years team to any of HCBS previous teams. Whether the intentions where there or not HCBS started three freshmen last year. This is not a normal occurrence. We can throw around all the numbers we want but even a causal fan can see that HCBS is a defense first kind of coach. Problem with this mindset is very few kids coming out of high school can play the level of defense at the college level their first year. Hence that is why you don’t see to many freshman start for HCBS.
However times are changing. With the concept of Kids leaving early to chase the money becoming the norm. A head coach has to play these elite athletes even though a year riding the pine would do them some good. Especially on the defense side of the ball. Are you seeing my point here? It doesn’t matter what system you play when you have freshman running the show there are going to be break downs of the execution on both sides of the ball. You maybe able to replace older players in the system with better athletes but it’s not so easy to replace the wisdom, and the ability to execute these more seasoned players have earned.
Now having said all that, I do think there is one area that HCBS needs to change and focus more on. The point guard position. I really believe this is where most of our tournament failures come from. Don’t get me wrong we have had some very nice two guards handle the rock quite well, but they were two guards and acting like one when the time came. Look no further than S. Collins. He was a great point guard right? I don’t think so. Yes the guy was great at getting to the rack, but that is all he wanted to do when the game was tight or on the line. A true point guard will take the points when they are there, but he is always looking for the easy bucket, getting the offense going. Look at Coach Cal and all the talent he had. Dismiss last years team (way to many last minute shots) his best team was the one where he had J. Wall. a true point guard.
I love Tharpe as person and a Jayhawk, but I’m sorry when you get hit in the head by a pass. That says it all. Just my two cents worth.
-
Great discussion here between kD and HEM–> good stuff that makes us all stop to consider all the above points they are making.
A few points:
1. HEM states our m2m-D “definitely did not bring us a NC” (as he proposed zone-D for this 1 season last year). The only logic issue here is that look at the Elite8 teams–> majority of them played m2m better than KU did, and still didnt get a NC. Look at AZ sitting there with a fork in them right now…And even the teams like FL and KY that switched defenses…didnt get the NC (but could have). I dont think the type of D predicates a higher chance of winning a NC…but rather the proficiency with which (whatever) D is played. Look at Syracuse and we realize they simply are the best 2-3 zone ever, because they are totally dedicated to it. My counter-postulate is: We did not execute our own system even to the level of Self’s past teams, thus our chances were diminished in this portion of our game. Competence issue largely due to youth, and a couple of underachievers (that were not frosh). I’m NOT slamming our players, just saying: “look at our own D stats, compared with past Self teams…and get back in the practice gym and work on it.” If we cant meet our OWN performance standards…well, by god, what are we doing ‘expecting’ a NC run…? Even if you meet the standard, or “set” it like the 08Champs did, there are NO guarantees: They could have been knocked off by Davidson…but even when our MickeyDs and top50 seasoned vets stunk it up offensively–> our D kept us in that game, Kaun saved us offensively, and we bothered the living hell out of Curry/Davidson. That game was in the 50’s scorewise, if I recall.
2. For this point, I will come back to my concept of needing to do almost everything well in a high-stakes game to win it. Consider Self’s basic 3 principles: A) high%looks, B.) Win possession battle, C) Defend to the level you are truly disrupting the opponent. Folks, the answers to all the head-scratching/axe-grinding about our Tourney losses lies in these 3 principles. The answer to the Tennessee-walk-on loss by the 2011 MorrisHawks (that went on to be the overall 1seed, but lost to VCU) lies in these 3 principles. Look at the game tape and SEE what we FAILED at, and there’s your answer. Look at FL losing in the Elite8 with a score in the 50s: they defended, but “couldnt score the basketball” (either an off-shooting day, or they got disrupted to hell by the opponent). Look at the narrow loss by WSU to KY: WSU did not score on 5 attempts *that were ALL over 60% “looks”, nor were they able to disrupt either Harrison Twin, as the KY twins went for 39pts. Game over. Historic season over. FAILED at things they did well all season long. Comes down to very simple reasons.
Self said after the 2008 Championship that “you hope your team is playing at its most efficient level when you enter the Final4, as that gives you the best chance” Translation: Your offense is crisp, minimal turnovers, the timing of set plays is dead-on, you are hitting you high% looks (FTs, paint shots, and open-look-3s would be a luxury), and you are winning the possession battle either with rebounds, OR with rbds + steals, and you are defending the opponent to the point of disrupting not only plays, but affecting their whole offensive mindset. Do all those things, and you have a NC contender.
Consider Stanford game: we actually defended better than we had been, we controlled our turnovers to only 13 (season avg, not bad, and the 08Champs avg’d 12-13range), but we were horrible on high%looks in the paint, and we lose by 3. Wiggins basically had about 5 drives where he either got stripped or charged = all turnovers. The BEST freshmen in the nation couldnt singlehandedly “save” their team, not Jabari Parker of Duke, not injured Embiid on the KU bench, nor Andrew Wiggins vs. Stanford (bad game) or vs. WVU (historic KU player good game, but team still loses). And I cant even mention Aaron Gordon’s 47%FT season avg with a straight face–making a 6’8 mockery of a basic principle. Any gameplan on AZ should’ve include hack-the-schitt out of Mr. Gordon…
Consider VCU game, same criteria: didnt defend their early possession 3s, Markieff has 6 t.o.'s himself (not known as a t.o. machine), and Reed goes 1-7 treys. What a lethal combination, making us beatable by just about anybody.
Consider FL game: 23+turnovers, our offensive execution was inexperienced/inefficient, and our D was, of course, subpar. One of the worst single-game losses by a KU team in the Bill Self era. Before you draw a “conclusion” about FL’s 1-3-1…just think back to Self’s system, as executed SOOO efficiently by the 2008Champs–> Do people remember what they did to opposing zone-defenses and traps? So my gentle counterpoint to spending too much time contemplating somebody else’s defense, is to simply compare what more experienced and tougher mindset Self teams have done (& thus are expected by design) to opposing zone Ds. Man-thought here: It’s about the tools you have, and are ya experienced in using them? Too easily forgotten about this last season is that while we lamented Naadir’s and Ellis’ play, along with frosh inconsistencies & injuries…the ‘toolkit’ these guys had at their disposal was pretty dumbed-down. Nicer way to put it was that it was only a ‘shell’ of what the 08Champs had to work with: 08 team had over 55plays in just their set half-court offense, and their D was so disruptive, that they were also GREAT at igniting their own transition-highlight fastbreaks. So now ffwd to '13-14 and see our inexperienced guys getting pressed by FL, Villanova, and SDSU (at home no less), and we dont defend/steal, thus cannot send Wiggy+Seldy on as many fast breaks as we’d like, so now its down to grinding it out in the half court with a LIMITED toolkit. So sending it into the post for high%+get rebounds+make Wiggins do dribble-drive (his best strength) was what Self tried. It got us 10th BigXII title, but really couldnt go much farther. Embiid’s impact on Self’s principles was 3fold: high%finisher (paint+FT), disruptor defensively, and rebounder (possession battle). That’s why losing him was a death sentence to any Final 4 hopes. Just like losing Niang gutted Hoiberg’s chances. They only beat UNC because UNC cannot defend at an elite level with any (systematic) consistency.
You wonder why-O-why cant we beat people by 20+ routinely, like we used to? Well, think back to those seasons where we got stops/steals, made the other guy ugly, while we finished in transition, broke down zone-Ds methodically and sometimes dramatically…and that’s how we went on those “patented” 18-2 or 22-4 “runs”. Plus, doing that to a team gives them the “pucker factor”. It takes away their belief. This season, all we seemed to do was allow teams to believe they could run with us, and thus, they were. Remember how TxTech takes this Jayhawk team to the wire in Lubbock?
The devil is in the details of execution and consistency and experience. And about having enough rehearsed-options in your brain to do when the opponent throws something different at you. Those little devils killed us, MANY times this season.
Finally, to say a word about Bill Self: He comes up with plays, defense, and recruits the guys to execute it…and hammers them til they do it. Does anybody really, honestly think that the newbie '13Jayhawks had all the plays and experience at running them that the '08, '11, or '12Jayhawks did? You cannot compare oak seedlings to solid oak trees. It could be similar great seeds (high recruits), same farmer (coach), same soil (system)–but the results are different. So do we blame the recruits, or coach, or system? Now? Seems premature to do that given the problems this team showed all season long. The most peculiar thing about the “sick of early Tourney exits” arguments are that the analysis of the loss itself is glossed over. Or essentially ignored. Or magnified into something bigger than it actually is. Does Self’s post-loss explanation leave you perplexed, as many fans are saying: “Is that it? Didnt make shots? Didnt defend? Or shots ‘were contested’? Where’s our gameplan adjustment? Why couldnt we come up with something different when Wiggy says there were 3 guys on him?” My answer is we didnt have much else in our ‘toolkit’. Self had 5.5mos (Oct–>mid-March) with this team. How long did he have with the 08Champs? How about the '12Champ run? He can call all the timeouts he has, but how much repertoire did this team actually have that he could reliably expect to be executed properly… in crunchtime? This is a big point, but even bigger is when we arent executing the basics all season long. None of this is a condemnation of anything…just a synopsis of 1 season of a very young team.
People will be more pleased this coming season. Look for a restoration of typical Self-team statistical performance. All the reasons why will be another post.
-
@DoubleDD Good points. But a key point I’ve been making for over a month now, is that our BEST defenders on this unusual team were: Embiid, Wiggins, Selden, and Mason. All freshmen. Which begs the question why the returnees werent getting it done? And now one of the returnees is gone. The biggest change for the '14-15Hawks is that there is a bigger core of returning experience now. We still add new faces: top3 big, top15 wing, top36 combo guard…so there will be another frosh learning curve, but the returning “core” should be a lot more consistent, capable, and competent on both ends of the floor. Not to mention the intangible attitude and toughness and physicality that not only returns, but is also arriving in Cliff and Kelly. Imagine those guys after Selfization and Huditioning…
-
I find it cute and sometimes funny when everyone drops an early exit knock on KU or HCBS (name one here________) on our boards simply because ALL of the other programs have lost in the NIT over the past 10 years. KU or Bill Self’s early losses have not been fun to watch but at lease he made the tourney EVERY year. You will all hear me say this enough to make you all sick but Bill Self is the Key Factor to our success no matter what roster changes take place. However the mental toughness and drive to succeed mixed in with some experience is what is going to be the winning combination for our beloved KU team over the next several years. I honestly think HCBS could take a div2 team and win the Big 12 title on any given year.
-
@Statmachine I would add to statmachine’s post about Self being the “key factor no matter what roster changes”, as even Self is the one making the roster changes. College recruiting is 2-3yrs in the future, at all times. Sometimes you miss on guys, sometimes not. But the true greatness of Self (only talking about Bill Self, the coach from Okmulgee, OK), is what he does after Yr2 with his players. And yes, almost any athletes, ranked or not. Tulsa Athletic Dept. still has a huge mural and pictures on their wall honoring Self and his 1999 Elite8 32-5 squad. Frank Haith can stare at that and try to top that for the rest of his career. And just what has Bill Self done with his coaching career since 1999…?
-
I do enjoy reading these boards and I love how in depth our boards get and if your anything like me you wish you could somehow call HCBS and give some advice from time to time lol. You can take as much data from Ken Pom or any other statistic from where ever you want and analyse HCBS’s past teams until your hearts content but what good does it actually do? I highly doubt he reads these boards to get coaching advice from this infinite pool of wisdom here at KU buckets lol. His system and style of coaching has gotten KU to the top of the big12 and a high seed every year. Our roster has turned over every year and we have even lost all 5 starters and he has still managed to beat the odds and win the big 12 title or at least a share of it. He was hired by KU because of his proven track record, style of coaching, and winning record even while coaching at really small schools. His recruiting and eye for talent is far and away better than most coaches still coaching today. When he left Illinois the 2005 Fighting Illini, (Self’s recruits) went 37–2 and fell to North Carolina in the NCAA championship game proving that the guys he recruits are good and stuff. As long as he is at KU our guys will be dancing each and every year so expect some early losses but expect more trophies on the shelf too because as long as we are dancing we have a shot every year. That’s why he makes the big bucks!
-
Sometimes good teams just lose a close game: See MichiganSt, Michigan, Kentucky, WichitaSt, Arizona, FL, etc. Try again next year…
-
@ralster Yes even the all mighty Wichita st lost this year. They set some records that may never be beaten? I would assume that what ever blue blood college program Gregg Marshall ends up at will be a force to be reckoned with. Imagine what that guy could do with a bunch of 4 and 5 star recruits? I would assume Duke or North Carolina will nab him within the next 2-3 years.
-
@Statmachine no way!
-
@konkeyDong I read an article on Grantland recently entitled “DataBall”. Here’s the link:
http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/
It is a pretty interesting read on something I figure you’d enjoy. And I think you’re right, that getting a “brain builder” to analyze advance statistics and data could be hugely beneficial to the program. It might be the next jump in the evolution of college coaching. I think Brad Stevens was scratching the surface of this at Butler.
One final thing though, since you’re a self-proclaimed numbers guy, here’s a quote from the article mentioned:
“It’s hard not to improperly elevate the role of “big data” in contemporary sports analyses, but romanticizing them is dangerous. Data are necessarily simplified intermediaries that unite performances and analyses, and the world of sports analytics is built upon one gigantic codec that itself is built upon the defective assumption that digits can represent athletics.”
Just a friendly reminder not to discount or ignore the eye test or analysis that is rooted in common sense simply because we can’t or haven’t assigned an empirical value to it.
-
Really nice post!
I read it all, and I’ll try to read everyone’s responses later. Unfortunately, my garden is calling me in just a few minutes.
Sometimes brevity is an advantage for perception.
When I look at almost everything we discuss, it concerns issues with guard play.
Either we recruit the wrong players, or we use the players we have ineffectively.
I can point to every single guard we have and I can second-guess Self. I will do that, but I’ll never value my second-guessing over his real-time judgment because everyone is a genius at second-guessing.
I believe our overall, number one issue is who we recruit at the PG position. It isn’t impossible to find a good PG. I think we may now have 3 good PGs for next year. Finding a GREAT PG is something totally different, and needless to say, we all totally undervalue the difference between GOOD and GREAT. GREAT PGs will put you in the hunt for a NC, regardless of the quality at the other positions (to a point).
It’s been a long time since Kansas had a GREAT PG. And because of that, we don’t really understand what a difference that one guy plays on a team. Everything addressed in this thread relates heavily to the responsibilities of the PG.
Defense is a big part of the responsibility of the PG, too. And as long as we recruit PGs who can’t shut his man down off the dribble, we’ll never be outstanding running a M2M defense. But then… we won’t be outstanding running a zone either!
I’m not convinced a zone is our answer. I think making sure our guards (including PG) know how to shut down the drive is the one area we need to address.
I am building some quiet optimism for our PG play next year. I like the combination of 3 guys who all bring a different set of skills to that position. I’m quietly optimistic because I want to see them prove they can play before I get too excited.
-
It’s been a long time since Kansas had a GREAT PG
@drgnslayr Curious who you think our last great PG was. I have an idea in my head, but I’ll keep it to myself until I hear who you’re thinking of.
-
I’m not good at basketball strategies or analysis, so it’s really great to read of the basketball discussions here. After reading @konkeyDong, HEM and all the other knowledgeable posters, the only conclusion I got was that we didn’t have the right personnel to execute Coach Self’s game plans. It really exposed the short coming of having to rely on mostly Freshmen to carry the load, and that is not Self ball. In Coach Self’s system, it really takes more than 1, probably 2 years to get close to the full potential. Hopefully next season or the year following we will have the right combination of experience and youthfulness, we will have better results. I think having 1 OAD may augment an experienced team, but 3 definitely dummy down the team’s sophistication and is not a good thing.
-
@drgnslayr After reading a ton of news and what recruiting experts have to say about Devonte Graham I am almost convinced that he could be the next Great Point Guard for KU! Man it took some time but I read article after article about how good he was on a loaded Brewster Academy team. His assists to turnover ratio was 5-1 and I have read tons of praise about him being tough on D, staying in front of his man, taking charges (not typical of hs ball), controlling tempo, scoring in transition, having 20/20 court vision, and making plays for other team mates. His coach says he is the toughest point guard in the big 12 (although I’m still not sure he is qualified to make that call) and even HCBS has been talking about how other point guards have started as freshmen during his tenure. Bill Self is already setting him up to be our starting PG in the media. He is even saying that our PG position is the deepest its ever been (No one was saying that a week ago). Even if he doesn’t start I was already excited to see how our sophomore’s Frankamp and Mason fared next year with the departure of Tharpe? Its hard not to come away excited after reading about this kids ascend to the top of many recruiting analyst’s boards.
-
Question. How far would this year’s KU Team have gone in the tourney with Napier instead of Tharpe?
-
How far would this year’s team have gone with Tyshawn, Sherron, or Russell Robinson? Imagine one of these guys with Selden, Wiggins, Ellis and Embiid/Black? (With all due respect to EJ, I left him out as his career proved he was best at the 2guard position…best when paired with an aggressive co-ballhandler.)
-
@ralster I was getting ready to say kinda the same thing. Taylor or Napier as seniors led their teams to a national championships! Tharpe wasn’t going to get us there no matter weather you liked him or not. I do however think that one of the options at PG on our current roster will get us there again. I am just hoping its before their senior year? Historically, teams with freshman point guards haven’t had massive success in the NCAA tournament. I believe i read somewhere that only 3 freshman and 3 sophomores have have lead their team to a national championship over the last 20 years or so.
-
@Statmachine That stat makes sense. All the more reason why our best chance for another NC could be 15-16, depending on who leaves after this coming season.
-
@Hawk8086 I don’t know if anyone remembers but Frankamp was the leading scorer (14.1 ppg) on the U17 2012 Olympic team with Tyus Jones, Jabari Parker, Jahlil Okafor, Dakari Johnson, and Stanly Johnson. He split the PG duties with Tyus Jones but it was Frankamp who lead the team in minutes and points. I think Frankamp is our best option when it gets right down to the nut cuttin. If HCBS says we are more loaded than we have ever been at the point then its because of quality players like Frankamp. He will set the bar early and it will be up to Mason and Graham to try to catch up. I dont mind if it takes them another year to reach the national championship as long as they do it.
-
@KansasComet another question, how far would this years KU team have gone w/HEM coaching, running a zone? No Embiid.
-
“Curious who you think our last great PG was. I have an idea in my head, but I’ll keep it to myself until I hear who you’re thinking of.”
We’ve had some really good PGs. Great? I don’t know. I can’t think of one who took us to a NC carrying most of the weight on his shoulders.
I can’t really say any PG sticks out as GREAT in the Bill Self era.
I have to go back further… liked Jacque Vaughn… and of course who didn’t like the assist king, Aaron Miles. That one area of his game was about as good as it gets… call it GREAT!
Here is my favorite guard from Kansas… albeit a 2:
I’d like to see us land a PG who could do all that.
@Statmachine - I’m following all the hype. First… players are always over-hyped out of their HS or from AAU coaches. But I’ve watched that tape, and the kid looks legit.
I just don’t think we should all over-bite on this kid. Make him earn all the accolades. We are always too quick to praise kids before they even dribble a ball.
I do have high hopes for Devonte, and I hope he is everything the hype is saying about him. He definitely could be. But I’m going to remain quietly optimistic. Let’s see him translate his HS game to college, where players are bigger and faster. It isn’t just the guy that is guarding him… it’s at all 5 positions, so passing, driving… everything is tougher at D1.
Devonte looks athletic and capable. I want to see his basketball IQ. I want to see him with a basketball brain like Kirk Hinrich.
This could easily be Self’s best depth at PG… if it can beat out RRob, Chalmers and Collins. That’s a pretty tough core of guys capable at PG. What would make these guys better is if one of them (probably Devonte) steps up and goes from GOOD to GREAT.
-
Pace is determined by personnel.
For example, with a big guy like Withey or Aldrich, having a fast pace doesn’t play to your personnel because you’re just wearing them down by having your offense fly up and down the floor, and you aren’t taking advantage of their size because you’re pushing the ball up and down.
So the question when it comes to pace is does a faster pace fit this upcoming season’s personnel. A quick scan of the perimeter guys says it probably does. For one, we have depth at the point if both Mason and Graham can handle primary ball handler duties. I think Frankamp probably slides more to the 2, especially with Graham here, as having a bigger PG to allow Frankamp to play on the wing while still not having to defend a bigger guy is probably ideal. Plus, that takes advantage of Frankamp’s greatest skill, which is his shooting. Oubre and Selden can get out in transition, as can Greene and White.
What about the big guys? Well, Perry plays better in a set half court offense, but from watching Alexander, I think he is comfortable in transition. Traylor is definitely a transition player. Not sure yet on Mickelson, which ultimately may be the determining factor. If Mickelson isn’t comfortable in transition, KU may be a selective running team (i.e., run when the Chicago bigs are in with Mason and any two wings, play more half court with Perry, Mickelson, Frankamp and Greene on the floor).
As for zone defense, I think KU should show a zone as at least a change of pace look. I was advocating this last year with the size and length KU had at it’s disposal, and I would advocate a similar look this year. I don’t think Oubre will be the individual defender that Wiggins was, but I think he will be very solid. I still think a 3-2 zone could be very effective with the likely starting group (Graham, Selden, Oubre, Ellis, Alexander) because of their size and length.
I think a 2-3 would be a fun look if KU decided to go smaller (something like Mason, Frankamp, Selden, Traylor, Mickelson). That would be a good look to maybe change the look the opposing offense was getting for a handful of possessions.
I agree with @konkeyDong 100% that we need to embrace attacking matchup advantages. This has been one of my major criticisms of Coach Self in that he lets lesser talented teams hang around because he lets them play their regular rotation rather than basically telling them “you can’t play your two worst rotation players today because I will destroy them whenever they are in the game.” That’s the single biggest reason UK beat Wichita State. Had Marshall been able to play his regular rotation, he may have been able to have enough gas in the tank for a win. But Wessel (12 mpg in the season, 3 vs. UK) and Coleby (13 mpg regular season, 7 vs. UK) were basically eliminated from the rotation because Cal went right after them. Self let a Stanford team without a true PG beat him in the NCAA rather than pressing them to death with a small lineup and making their zone defend Wiggins as a 4 man in the high post.
Exploiting matchups will be the key to success, over and above everything else. When we have a size advantage, we dominate. However, the high low doesn’t give us the advantage if we are better on the perimeter. Look at the Northern Iowa loss. Or Stanford. Or Bradley. What’s the common thread between those teams? All had a 7 footer on their roster that was pretty solid, which eliminated our typical interior advantage. But in each of those games, our guards were better (sometimes substantially so). But in sticking with the high low, we negated our own advantage by taking the ball away from our advantage and moving it to where they could play us more evenly.
-
@Crimsonorblue22 Without Embiid? Not very far. We really missed our dynamic rim protector. As far as zone defense and another coach? I will respectfully decline comment.
-
@jaybate 1.0 I don’t know why you put Wright’s quote in either.
However, “Less is more, but only if more is no good”, is a quote I will be repeating.
-
@drgnslayr Man…Hinrich! He spent a year playing the point didn’t he? Good call my friend!
I don’t think a PG has to carry us to a NC to be considered great. I couldn’t punish a great PG because he had great teammates.
Aaron Miles was pretty close I think. A true point guard. And I think Collins was pretty close. Had his senior year not been marred by the UNI upset, I think we’d be talking about him. He willed the '09 team to a conference championship and a sweet 16, and had that '10 poised to do much greater things.
