Joel's Gone
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@Blown Let’s assume Bill Self decides this summer to go after a #50 instead of #1-5 since he can’t have the premier player for more than one year. Word will get out that Self prefers the lower-rated player. In 2014 or 2015, the NBA decides to change the rule to make it two-and-done (or three-and-done). Self is going to have a difficult–if not impossible–task of convincing the best talent that it would be to the recruit’s advantage to come to Kansas. It won’t be long before #50 is a crown jewel for KU. Then we would be happy that we beat out a Mizzou for an NCAA tournament berth.
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@Wigs2 Every title at Kansas has been won by 2-4 year players.
P.S. This is KANSAS. We will ALWAYS have our foot in the door on 90% of high level recruits.
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@truehawk93 In proper grammar, the past tense would be you are a TWAT, right?
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@Blown As I stated before, both Rush and Arthur were potential–and maybe presumed–OADs. I believe Manning would have been if the rule had been effect at that time. Chamberlain certainly would have been. If you start recruiting lesser talent, there will be no end to the dropoff. The KANSAS name doesn’t mean nearly as much to these kids as you think it does. UCLA was for years the premier destination for a college basketball player. Do you still think they want to go there?
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Remember, my question on Shepherd vs. Embiid is in hindsight. Embiid was not a presumed OAD. So now, as we sit here today, would you have rather had Embiid for this past season only, no national title, or Shepherd for this past season and into the future? I just think that it’s an interesting thought process. It lets you know where you stand on OADs.
My line on judging is if we win the national title. Otherwise, the better decision is nearly always long term.
With Wiggins, for example now, are we better off having had him. Or, given that we didn’t win that national title, got bounced in the 2nd round (or 3rd round … whatever the hell it is … first weekend), would KU have been better off playing Greene and/or White all season at the 3? Thus having one or both more ready and prepared next season? Or did having Wiggins bring something intrinsic? I’ve touched on this before a few times.
I do think we win the Big 12 without Wiggins, if Embiid was healthy all season. But he wasn’t. So we might have lost the Big 12. That doesn’t cause me to lose sleep mainly because of those other 9 shiny rings.
But this is the presumed OAD question. At what cost vs. the what benefit.
Now, we had Wiggins, and we have nothing. And we head into next season with the three spot either occupied by a guy who didn’t get a ton of experience (Greene) or a freshman who will need to learn (again) – Oubre.
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@JRyman - Excellent post
Imagine how Black felt answering questions all week about how he was going to make up for the loss of Joel. Black played like an absolute champion and wore his heart on his sleeve during the Stanford game. He tried as hard as he could to take us to Memphis and when we couldn’t hang on, he was devastated. I could barely watch the video of him being interviewed after.
I am excited for the future because we have guys that are already showing Heart. Frankamp is one of those; Selden has shown his heart and passion; I believe that even Greene shows the fire and the heart to want to take this team to new heights. I believe Tharpe tries is absolute hardest, he looked heart broken after the loss as well. I hope Perry finds his or if he already has it, I want him to show it.
I obviously wish Wiggins and Embiid would stay one more year but I wish Black could as well.
Heart is why T-Rob will always be one of my favorite players.
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@dtdjayhawk Ok, I was with you until you said “Tharpe tries his absolute hardest …” I have never seen a player under Self that I questioned his heart, desire, and effort more than Tharpe. Is my conclusion wrong there?
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@wrwlumpy 2010-11: Red-shirted season due to a back ?
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@Wigs2 I’m not going to say your theory is wrong, because we have no way to prove it. But I think you are making a big leap and projecting “what would happen.” My sentiments are solely based on what IS happening. You are stuck on the top 15 players being full of Glory because that is what the media has sold you.
Also–you said “In 2014 or 2015, the NBA decides to change the rule to make it two-and-done (or three-and-done). Self is going to have a difficult–if not impossible–task of convincing the best talent that it would be to the recruit’s advantage to come to Kansas.”
If the NBA does change the rule, there is going to be a natural decline in Self bringing in OAD for the simple fact that their current players would be staying 2-3 years as you suggested.
Do you think we get Wiggs if McLemore has to stay 2-3 years? Do we get Oubre if Wiggs has to stay 2-3 years? The answer is no. So regardless, we will see a decrease in OAD’s signed at schools. Kentucky isn’t going to keep reeling in the #1 class if the incoming freshmen KNOW they have little to no shot at seeing the court until they are in year two or three.
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@HighEliteMajor Unless you know what Shepherd would have done in the KU system, it’s impossible to say. If Shepherd had come to KU and progressed into one of the top 3 draft choices, he probably would have left as well. Then would you have been wishing for Embiid? Unless you know how Shepherd would have done and whether he would have opted to stay at KU after a sensational season, your question doesn’t have an answer.
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@Wigs2 Wilt was a freak of nature. There will never be another Wilt.
Alcindor’s team - sophomore’s. Sophomore’s who had already practiced with the team for one full year before their sophomore seasons. Close to 50 years ago. When if you had a Lew Alcindor - it didn’t make any difference who else you had on your team, you were going to win.
I’ll take very good Jr’s and Sr’s any day over uber talented freshmen.
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@Wigs2 Well what’s the point then. I don’t know if the world’s going to end tomorrow.
Ok, assume we got Shepherd and he progressed just like our other 50ish post guys, Markieff and TRob, and left after three years vs. Embiid’s one year.
You have to make a few assumptions in recruiting in general terms. If a guy is saying he’s likely and OAD, you have to recruit assuming that and vice versa.
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@Wigs2 what past KU players do you think played for the jersey? 1988 team, Sherron, Cole, TRob, EJ, TT, Kevin, the ks kids, …and???
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@HighEliteMajor I just think that there are so many variables that your question can’t be answered. Would Shepherd have enjoyed his freshman year at KU? Would he have liked Self and/or his teammates? Would he have decided to transfer after his freshman year because he didn’t think he would ever get enough playing time? Would he have liked Lawrence? What would he have thought about being in this area during this brutal winter? Maybe everything would have worked out perfectly but you never know.
As I said earlier, I like the 4-year player too. I liked the way it was 50-60 years ago. It’s hard to get attached to a player when he stays for only one year. I just think as the rule is now, it is just impractical to expect a top recruit to stay for more than one year. But you still have to go after them or your whole program will decline.
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@Wigs2 agree, probably if Shepard came here, I’d like to think he would be a lot better than he is now.
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@Wigs2 would the world end tomorrow? Again what’s the point if you “what if” it to death?
It’s a general concept where you make general assumptions to arrive at a philosophy and approach. It’s like recruiting a point guard. If you want a tall, athletic guy that is good on defense. You recruit guys that mold and assume that it will translate to what you want in college. They might flame out.
And no one’s saying 50-60 years ago. I’m talking recruiting guys that you would assume would be 3-4 year guys.
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@wissoxfan83 I’m not going to believe ANYTHING until it comes directly from Joel and Coach.
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HEM, I think a coach either has to assume that all recruits are going to be 3-4 year guys or that they are going to all be OADs. If Wiggins would have had a disappointing season and he had fallen considerably in the draft, he would have been playing next year at Kansas. Brandon Rush was considered a OAD by many people. It didn’t work out. He would certainly have been done after his sophomore season if he had not been injured during NBA draft tryouts. Contrary to what many seem to think, Rush didn’t come back because of the name across the front of his jersey. I think the coach just drafts the player who he feels will best fit into his system and lets the chips fall where they may. Otherwise, he will “what if?” himself to death.
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The last time KU won a national championship was 2008. The three best players on that team were Mario Chalmers (12th ranked recruit), Brandon Rush (13th ranked recruit), and Darrell Arthur (16th ranked recruit). All three of those players went on to play in the NBA. Russell Robinson was the 27th ranked recruit and Sasha Kaun was 34th.
The closest KU came to winning before that was 2002 and 2003. Both of those teams had highly rated recruits with NBA talent (Hinrich, Gooden, Collison). The 2002 team lost to a Maryland team with Steve Blake, Chris Wilcox, and Juan Dixon. The 2003 team lost to a team with a one-and-done player, Carmelo Anthony. The 1997 team that was good enough to win the national championship had Paul Pierce. They lost to an Arizona team that had Mike Bibby and Jason Terry. That Arizona team went on to win the national championship.
This season, the biggest problem for KU was their junior point guard. Tharpe was the 92nd ranked recruit when he committed to Kansas. Had Embiid been healthy against Stanford I think Kansas would have won. But he wasn’t and they lost. Injuries happen.
That doesn’t mean KU should stop recruiting the best players possible. Wiggins wasn’t the problem this season, neither was Embiid. In fact, if it weren’t for those 2 players I’m not sure KU would have won a 10th straight Big 12 title. With more consistent point guard play and a healthy Embiid, Kansas would probably still be in the tournament, maybe even the favorite. Keep recruiting 1-2 year players and hope they stay a few years because Kansas isn’t going to win national championships with just 50th ranked recruits. Sure, you can have a few of those players, Frankamp and Greene were ranked 47th and 48th, Darnell Jackson was 55th on the 2008 team, but you need really good players to win national championships.
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@dtdjayhawk Ok, I was with you until you said “Tharpe tries his absolute hardest …” I have never seen a player under Self that I questioned his heart, desire, and effort more than Tharpe. Is my conclusion wrong there?
Not sure you are completely wrong, but he has shown his heart, when he gets benched, he doesn’t sit an cry to the nearest reporter, he doesn’t make excuses for his play. He shows great character by going back out there time and time again trying.
I do not believe he goes out there looking to fail or to just go through the motions. Therefore by reasonable deductions he is trying.
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I’ve been operating under the assumption that Embiid would be gone since mid January. He progressed much faster than anyone anticipated.
I doubt that Coach Self really regrets having Embiid here, and I certainly don’t think he would have preferred a lower ranked prospect than Embiid. Embiid provided KU, in his one year, with a real chance to go the distance. Shepherd wouldn’t have provided that this year, and may not ever turn out to be that type of “put you over the top” player. Would KU be better off to have a player that probably will never be as good as Perry Ellis is now?
@KirkIsMyHinrich makes a great point about KU, but I would take it even a step further. When is the last time KU landed a highly ranked PG that actually stayed at PG in college?
Give up? Try the Class of 2006 - Sherron Collins. Since then, the only guys to stay at the point were Tyshawn Taylor (77) and Naadir Tharpe (92). Tyrel Reed, Josh Selby and Elijah Johnson all moved off the ball.
You know who this team really may have missed, without even realizing it? Anrio Adams. Wouldn’t it have been nice to be able to slip a combo guard into the rotation alongside Selden and Wiggins? But that’s a moot point.
Self needs to find himself a true PG that is legitimately a high ranked player. Not a developmental case. A legit, can play from day one PG. As we have seen, a lower ranked player can become a big time player like Tyshawn, or never quite develop to our hopes like Naadir.
That said, Tharpe still has one more year, but as a player that is getting towards the end of his career, I have trouble seeing him becoming a significantly different player at this point.
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@wissoxfan83 Man, all of this is speculation and theory. All of it. If the NBA does extend the minimum age and require 2 years of college, then how would it affect KU getting the top players? The OAD type players wouldn’t exist anymore. They would be two and done, or three and done. Its a moot point if the age limit is extended. I mean would we have been a better team with Ben Mac this year instead of Wigs? I’m leaning yes just based on experience. Both players were two of KU’s best freshmen in this last decade. Both have different strengths and weaknesses. Ben would have had more experience to lead this year, which could have lead us further in the tournaments. (Speculation) But, to think that KU will lose out on one and done type players, I don’t think that’s accurate. I think the recruiting and landing of those players will just cycle differently.
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@wissoxfan83 Here is another theory. What if Joel does not care how much money he makes in the NBA, only that he improves as a player and matures in the social world. For example, learning to drive. What if he decides to come back to KU, work on his game and get stronger, better, faster and then bounce to the NBA next year? And, say he tweaks his back again next season at KU and his stock drops a little bit, He is still going to make more money in one year than 99% of people on earth will see in a life time. I just don’t see money being a huge influence on Joel. He did not come from that type of instant gratification culture that most kids here do. I could be wrong and Joel will declare tomorrow or the next day, but what if? What if?
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@Lulufulu85 I think going now is a good business decision. That doesn’t mean he is driven by money. He would be going with the percentages by taking the guaranteed money now.
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@konkeyDong Me likey. He looks like a complete beast.
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I’m pouting tonight. I refuse to watch Stanford play. Damn them. I hate them… I hate them…
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Dayton is taking it to Stanford and they are ahead by 10 point withe 6 minutes left in the first half…
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@JayHawkFanToo fouls hurting Stanford this time. What a difference JoJo would have made!
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@JayHawkFanToo Yeah… If Dayton wins this game at the current rate, it’s going to make us look like crap.
Last year, I took some solace in the fact that it took a miraculous comeback by Michigan to beat us… and then they went all the way to the finals.
Losing in the round of 32 to a team that loses in the next round is not so comforting. Especially when you consider we had possibly our best recruiting class ever and the most celebrated freshman in 10 years.
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@bskeet uggg, you are right! This stinks, along w/Embiid rumors, not a great day to be a jhawk! Shout out to track team! Their day is going well!
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@bskeet Let’s face it, Bill took the day off vs Stanford.
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@bskeet From what I’ve seen of the game we can be thankful that we didn’t beat Stanford. Dayton looks like they would have beat us by 30. Or more.
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Dayton is my undergraduate Alma Mater, so obviously I am rooting for them. Since KU did not advance, the Flyers are my consolation.
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@Crimsonorblue22 This is just a reboot of what Yahoo sports news said 14 hours ago. Until JOEL SAYS he is going, I wouldn’t believe a word said in the mass media. Wait until we see him and Coach Self at a press conference giving the word that he is bouncing for the League or coming back.
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@nuleafjhawk the transitive law does not apply to sports. My math teacher-hall of fame coach taught us that in the 70’s. Which is also why you can’t guarantee beating the same team twice in a season. Shooting % from the trey or otherwise mean more. Just because Stanford beat us doesn’t mean a team that beats them on a different night could beat KU most nights.
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@JayHawkFanToo You may have a very happy consolation tonight!
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@Lulufulu85 yeah, but I’m not optimist!
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@JayHawkFanToo at least someone is happy!!!
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@KUSTEVE Man, why would you “hate” Stanford? Or Michigan or VCU? Our fail reasons lie within our own team–I mean you watched these inexperienced (& “soft”) Jayhawks struggle all season, didnt you, like the rest of us did? PG play-by-committee even into March Madness? Not a recipe for success. Embiid’s injury is a huge factor in this team’s options on the offensive and defensive ends. We got our problems exposed, despite Self’s best efforts.
And: we are a royalty program. How about graciously giving credit to the opponent, who simply outplayed us, and had a good gameplan on our frosh Wiggins? Self will bring us back stronger, better next year, as all this youth now has experience, and has tasted a big fat “L”. And Cliff Alexander is NOT soft. Nice addition he will be, even if its mostly in practice. Energy-players have a way of spilling over to other guys.
Little gained by alums/fans being bitter. Dont we get to Dance every year? We knew this team’s issues, no surprise. Let the hindsight work for you, y’all saw this coming with this no-D, poor-PG squad, right? Then subtract Embiid due to injury. Just hated to send Tarik Black out like that.
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@ HighEliteMajor: I saw Karviar Shepherd play. Wasnt that impressed. He looked like L’Bryant Nash. Isnt he 6’8, also? Embiid is a rare, rare specimen-with-talent (we know now…), but back in Oct he was thought to be a raw “project”. No way anybody saw him up there with Wiggins or Parker on the draft charts.
But I do agree about the 10th-50th ranked recruits (not leaving after year 1) being the BEST for our system. If one wants to get more specific: how about recruits 10-30? If KU turns into OAD factory like KY, we NEVER actually develop a true Bill Self product on the basketball court, just like this year–not a finished product. Very shaky against zone-D, while the experienced 08Champs ate zones for appetizers, with a lob dunk to chase it down with. I want that execution out of a Self-coached team. These guys have work to do.
And bring 2 cushions for the bench so “softness” (Ellis + Tharpe) can sit in comfort next to an assistant coach, since Self will be too redfaced.
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@JayHawkFanToo they are a scrappy team, like their D!
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I can’t believe what I’m reading here. You guys are hypocrites. Joel Embiid might be leaving and now suddenly he is the bad guy. And some of you came out saying he didn’t bring anything to KU. What a group of fair weather fans. Make me sick!
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@Wishawk Hey! I didn’t say anything negative about Embiid! I am a huge fan!
For the record, I’m probably the only idiot that still holds a shred of hope that both Embiid and Wiggins will return for another year!
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@HighEliteMajor - I had to go back and reflect on the season a little bit.
You may be right…
Maybe Tharpe’s athletic limitations have a negative impact on his desire and effort. He was saying all the right things and he seemed to care but he just isn’t the guy we need in the driver’s seat. Tharpe does seem to get frustrated/discouraged too easily.
I don’t question Perry’s effort but would you question his heart and/or desire?
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@dtdjayhawk I would question Perry’s toughness!
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@JRyman - just for clarification that quote you copied here was HEM’s response to my original post.
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@bskeet My friend, I wish him come back, but I wish him the best whatever he chooses. The kid doesn’t owe anyone, but himself and his family. I’m a huge fan of Embiid and thought he played hard and played himself into stardom. No doubt he had a lot of natural talent, but there is also little doubt that his hard work put him in this position. I will miss him if he leaves.
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@JayhawkRock78 Lol - I don’t know about transitive laws and all that, but I did watch Dayton rebound, run, pass, shoot and attack the basket.
I respect you and your math teacher hall of fame coach, but I’ll stick with Dayton kicking our fannies had we played them last night!
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@Crimsonorblue22 Really?
Wait - are you talking physical or mental toughness? I think the guy goes all out mentally - I want him on the court, I NEED him on that court…
He could add a little more beef to his frame, but I think he is very determined and gives it his all.
