Joel's Gone
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The last time KU won a national championship was 2008. The three best players on that team were Mario Chalmers (12th ranked recruit), Brandon Rush (13th ranked recruit), and Darrell Arthur (16th ranked recruit). All three of those players went on to play in the NBA. Russell Robinson was the 27th ranked recruit and Sasha Kaun was 34th.
The closest KU came to winning before that was 2002 and 2003. Both of those teams had highly rated recruits with NBA talent (Hinrich, Gooden, Collison). The 2002 team lost to a Maryland team with Steve Blake, Chris Wilcox, and Juan Dixon. The 2003 team lost to a team with a one-and-done player, Carmelo Anthony. The 1997 team that was good enough to win the national championship had Paul Pierce. They lost to an Arizona team that had Mike Bibby and Jason Terry. That Arizona team went on to win the national championship.
This season, the biggest problem for KU was their junior point guard. Tharpe was the 92nd ranked recruit when he committed to Kansas. Had Embiid been healthy against Stanford I think Kansas would have won. But he wasn’t and they lost. Injuries happen.
That doesn’t mean KU should stop recruiting the best players possible. Wiggins wasn’t the problem this season, neither was Embiid. In fact, if it weren’t for those 2 players I’m not sure KU would have won a 10th straight Big 12 title. With more consistent point guard play and a healthy Embiid, Kansas would probably still be in the tournament, maybe even the favorite. Keep recruiting 1-2 year players and hope they stay a few years because Kansas isn’t going to win national championships with just 50th ranked recruits. Sure, you can have a few of those players, Frankamp and Greene were ranked 47th and 48th, Darnell Jackson was 55th on the 2008 team, but you need really good players to win national championships.
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@dtdjayhawk Ok, I was with you until you said “Tharpe tries his absolute hardest …” I have never seen a player under Self that I questioned his heart, desire, and effort more than Tharpe. Is my conclusion wrong there?
Not sure you are completely wrong, but he has shown his heart, when he gets benched, he doesn’t sit an cry to the nearest reporter, he doesn’t make excuses for his play. He shows great character by going back out there time and time again trying.
I do not believe he goes out there looking to fail or to just go through the motions. Therefore by reasonable deductions he is trying.
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I’ve been operating under the assumption that Embiid would be gone since mid January. He progressed much faster than anyone anticipated.
I doubt that Coach Self really regrets having Embiid here, and I certainly don’t think he would have preferred a lower ranked prospect than Embiid. Embiid provided KU, in his one year, with a real chance to go the distance. Shepherd wouldn’t have provided that this year, and may not ever turn out to be that type of “put you over the top” player. Would KU be better off to have a player that probably will never be as good as Perry Ellis is now?
@KirkIsMyHinrich makes a great point about KU, but I would take it even a step further. When is the last time KU landed a highly ranked PG that actually stayed at PG in college?
Give up? Try the Class of 2006 - Sherron Collins. Since then, the only guys to stay at the point were Tyshawn Taylor (77) and Naadir Tharpe (92). Tyrel Reed, Josh Selby and Elijah Johnson all moved off the ball.
You know who this team really may have missed, without even realizing it? Anrio Adams. Wouldn’t it have been nice to be able to slip a combo guard into the rotation alongside Selden and Wiggins? But that’s a moot point.
Self needs to find himself a true PG that is legitimately a high ranked player. Not a developmental case. A legit, can play from day one PG. As we have seen, a lower ranked player can become a big time player like Tyshawn, or never quite develop to our hopes like Naadir.
That said, Tharpe still has one more year, but as a player that is getting towards the end of his career, I have trouble seeing him becoming a significantly different player at this point.
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@wissoxfan83 Man, all of this is speculation and theory. All of it. If the NBA does extend the minimum age and require 2 years of college, then how would it affect KU getting the top players? The OAD type players wouldn’t exist anymore. They would be two and done, or three and done. Its a moot point if the age limit is extended. I mean would we have been a better team with Ben Mac this year instead of Wigs? I’m leaning yes just based on experience. Both players were two of KU’s best freshmen in this last decade. Both have different strengths and weaknesses. Ben would have had more experience to lead this year, which could have lead us further in the tournaments. (Speculation) But, to think that KU will lose out on one and done type players, I don’t think that’s accurate. I think the recruiting and landing of those players will just cycle differently.
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@wissoxfan83 Here is another theory. What if Joel does not care how much money he makes in the NBA, only that he improves as a player and matures in the social world. For example, learning to drive. What if he decides to come back to KU, work on his game and get stronger, better, faster and then bounce to the NBA next year? And, say he tweaks his back again next season at KU and his stock drops a little bit, He is still going to make more money in one year than 99% of people on earth will see in a life time. I just don’t see money being a huge influence on Joel. He did not come from that type of instant gratification culture that most kids here do. I could be wrong and Joel will declare tomorrow or the next day, but what if? What if?
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@Lulufulu85 I think going now is a good business decision. That doesn’t mean he is driven by money. He would be going with the percentages by taking the guaranteed money now.
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@konkeyDong Me likey. He looks like a complete beast.
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I’m pouting tonight. I refuse to watch Stanford play. Damn them. I hate them… I hate them…
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Dayton is taking it to Stanford and they are ahead by 10 point withe 6 minutes left in the first half…
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@JayHawkFanToo fouls hurting Stanford this time. What a difference JoJo would have made!
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@JayHawkFanToo Yeah… If Dayton wins this game at the current rate, it’s going to make us look like crap.
Last year, I took some solace in the fact that it took a miraculous comeback by Michigan to beat us… and then they went all the way to the finals.
Losing in the round of 32 to a team that loses in the next round is not so comforting. Especially when you consider we had possibly our best recruiting class ever and the most celebrated freshman in 10 years.
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@bskeet uggg, you are right! This stinks, along w/Embiid rumors, not a great day to be a jhawk! Shout out to track team! Their day is going well!
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@bskeet Let’s face it, Bill took the day off vs Stanford.
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@bskeet From what I’ve seen of the game we can be thankful that we didn’t beat Stanford. Dayton looks like they would have beat us by 30. Or more.
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Dayton is my undergraduate Alma Mater, so obviously I am rooting for them. Since KU did not advance, the Flyers are my consolation.
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@Crimsonorblue22 This is just a reboot of what Yahoo sports news said 14 hours ago. Until JOEL SAYS he is going, I wouldn’t believe a word said in the mass media. Wait until we see him and Coach Self at a press conference giving the word that he is bouncing for the League or coming back.
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@nuleafjhawk the transitive law does not apply to sports. My math teacher-hall of fame coach taught us that in the 70’s. Which is also why you can’t guarantee beating the same team twice in a season. Shooting % from the trey or otherwise mean more. Just because Stanford beat us doesn’t mean a team that beats them on a different night could beat KU most nights.
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@JayHawkFanToo You may have a very happy consolation tonight!
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@Lulufulu85 yeah, but I’m not optimist!
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@JayHawkFanToo at least someone is happy!!!
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@KUSTEVE Man, why would you “hate” Stanford? Or Michigan or VCU? Our fail reasons lie within our own team–I mean you watched these inexperienced (& “soft”) Jayhawks struggle all season, didnt you, like the rest of us did? PG play-by-committee even into March Madness? Not a recipe for success. Embiid’s injury is a huge factor in this team’s options on the offensive and defensive ends. We got our problems exposed, despite Self’s best efforts.
And: we are a royalty program. How about graciously giving credit to the opponent, who simply outplayed us, and had a good gameplan on our frosh Wiggins? Self will bring us back stronger, better next year, as all this youth now has experience, and has tasted a big fat “L”. And Cliff Alexander is NOT soft. Nice addition he will be, even if its mostly in practice. Energy-players have a way of spilling over to other guys.
Little gained by alums/fans being bitter. Dont we get to Dance every year? We knew this team’s issues, no surprise. Let the hindsight work for you, y’all saw this coming with this no-D, poor-PG squad, right? Then subtract Embiid due to injury. Just hated to send Tarik Black out like that.
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@ HighEliteMajor: I saw Karviar Shepherd play. Wasnt that impressed. He looked like L’Bryant Nash. Isnt he 6’8, also? Embiid is a rare, rare specimen-with-talent (we know now…), but back in Oct he was thought to be a raw “project”. No way anybody saw him up there with Wiggins or Parker on the draft charts.
But I do agree about the 10th-50th ranked recruits (not leaving after year 1) being the BEST for our system. If one wants to get more specific: how about recruits 10-30? If KU turns into OAD factory like KY, we NEVER actually develop a true Bill Self product on the basketball court, just like this year–not a finished product. Very shaky against zone-D, while the experienced 08Champs ate zones for appetizers, with a lob dunk to chase it down with. I want that execution out of a Self-coached team. These guys have work to do.
And bring 2 cushions for the bench so “softness” (Ellis + Tharpe) can sit in comfort next to an assistant coach, since Self will be too redfaced.
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@JayHawkFanToo they are a scrappy team, like their D!
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I can’t believe what I’m reading here. You guys are hypocrites. Joel Embiid might be leaving and now suddenly he is the bad guy. And some of you came out saying he didn’t bring anything to KU. What a group of fair weather fans. Make me sick!
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@Wishawk Hey! I didn’t say anything negative about Embiid! I am a huge fan!
For the record, I’m probably the only idiot that still holds a shred of hope that both Embiid and Wiggins will return for another year!
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@HighEliteMajor - I had to go back and reflect on the season a little bit.
You may be right…
Maybe Tharpe’s athletic limitations have a negative impact on his desire and effort. He was saying all the right things and he seemed to care but he just isn’t the guy we need in the driver’s seat. Tharpe does seem to get frustrated/discouraged too easily.
I don’t question Perry’s effort but would you question his heart and/or desire?
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@dtdjayhawk I would question Perry’s toughness!
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@JRyman - just for clarification that quote you copied here was HEM’s response to my original post.
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@bskeet My friend, I wish him come back, but I wish him the best whatever he chooses. The kid doesn’t owe anyone, but himself and his family. I’m a huge fan of Embiid and thought he played hard and played himself into stardom. No doubt he had a lot of natural talent, but there is also little doubt that his hard work put him in this position. I will miss him if he leaves.
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@JayhawkRock78 Lol - I don’t know about transitive laws and all that, but I did watch Dayton rebound, run, pass, shoot and attack the basket.
I respect you and your math teacher hall of fame coach, but I’ll stick with Dayton kicking our fannies had we played them last night!
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@Crimsonorblue22 Really?
Wait - are you talking physical or mental toughness? I think the guy goes all out mentally - I want him on the court, I NEED him on that court…
He could add a little more beef to his frame, but I think he is very determined and gives it his all.
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@nuleafjhawk physical toughness!
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@nuleafjhawk Well Dayton sure did “bring it” again last night. Maybe I should have qualified my statement like this. If A>B and B>C, then A>C, However in sports, that does not apply -it depends on who shows up any given day.
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Yes, a very happy consolation. In no way compensates for KU early exist but very happy for them…and me.
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Here’s the thing - if freshmen play at an extremely high level, they will likely leave.
For example, look at Tyler Ennis. He was considered either the 4th or 5th best PG in his class, roughly ranked 20th overall. He is declaring for the draft. If you had asked just about anybody last summer whether Tyler Ennis would be a one and done, I think almost everyone would have said no. Of the three guards ranked ahead of Ennis, it’s likely that both Rysheed Jordan (St. John’s) and Kasey Hill (Florida) return to school. Jordan had a rough season both in production and from an emotional standpoint (for more on that, read here. Kasey Hill has sat behind Scottie Wilbekin. Ennis played and flourished right away. As a result, he’s heading to the NBA. Hill and Jordan will be staying in school most likely.
I would say that, as far as OADs are concerned, anyone that is ranked in the top 30 probably has the talent to be a OAD if everything comes together. Had Selden played as well as someone like Ennis played this year, it’s likely 1) KU would still be playing and 2) he would not be back in Lawrence.
Do we want to avoid players like Selden, or guys like Ennis just because we know that if they play well, they will probably leave early? If so, we are taking our recruiting down from the elite power level to something less. And of course, guys like that may not be ready to contribute as freshmen. Brannen Greene was in that range. Would he have been ready to step in and play 20+ minutes a game this year?
That’s the thing with potential OADs. They are more talented than the other recruits, so the best case scenario is Carmelo Anthony, while the worst case scenario is them returning for a second year after an underwhelming freshman campaign.
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Dayton is a well disciplined team an much like Wichita, they will not beat itself. It started the season strong, went through a rough patch with lots of injuries but finished the season strong.
In many ways, Dayton is a smaller version of KU. A basketball first school with a strong and basketball savvy fan base, a nice tradition and a well known Arena that absolutely rocks during games. Obviously they cannot compete with programs like KU for the top players, but looks like they have gotten the most form the ones they have.
The previous two coaches they had Oliver Purnell (9 years) and Brian Gregory (8 years) had good success and moved to bigger programs, Purnell to Clemson and Gregory to Georgia Tech. Hopefully Archie Miller will stay at least that long.
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@justanotherfan I know it sounds stupid for some of us to say that we don’t want to recruit OAD’s. It sounds stupid to me. But I don’t.
Here’s why.
One of the (many) things I love about Kansas Basketball is the tradition. The stories. The history. I want players here that are into that as well. I want them to soak up Allen Fieldhouse. And Lawrence, Ks. Even though I don’t live in Lawrence, I consider myself to be one of " US ". I live and breathe Kansas basketball first, but I also love football.
I don’t just want players who are here because they know we are a high profile school that is going to get them a lot of press. I’m not talking specifically about AW now, just the OAD personality in general.
I don’t see a OAD ever leading us to a National Championship. Look at the type of teams that Self ALWAYS puts together. Calipari has a much greater chance of utilizing a OAD type to Kentucky’s advantage because of the style of ball that they play. And he doesn’t care about Kentucky’s overall W/L record anyway. He’s there for his own personal fame and fortune. So dumping 4-6 guys into the league every year is to his personal advantage.
Anyway, I know I’m swimming upstream, but if it were up to me, I’d seek diligently for kids that would be here 3-4 years. I still think very good experienced players trump freshmen ( as a team ) every time.
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Hard to play ahead of a player like Wilbekin. Eniis absolutely bricked his last two shot against Dayton; he really should have passed but decided to win the game by himself; with that attitude he should do well in the NBA.
About the OADs, I would perhaps rephrase and say that every player ranked in the top 30 “thinks” he has the talent to play in the NBA after one year but most don’t.
The average NBA career length is about 6 yeas, but this number is heavily biased by the number of players that last only one or two season. When you consider player that average 25 or more minutes per game the career length is about 11 years, So, the average NBA team with 15 player (only 12 active) roster, loses slightly over 1 player per year to end of career. With 30 teams in the NBA, only 30 to 45 new players will make it and stay in the NBA every year. Lately, with influx of foreign players, the number of college kids moving up is even smaller. Realistically, the odds of making it to the NBA outside of being a Lottery or first round pick, are very small.
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@ralster I take it having a sense of humor isn’t big on your list, Mr. Serious. As the movie " Stripes" says, “lighten up, Francis”.
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@nuleafjhawk your logic is inescapable. Team denotes chemistry. Teams with lesser pure talent win over teams with greater pure talent all the time. It is the stage at which that talent is refined, it’s the cohesion of the unit, and it’s the coaching.
A great, nearly perfect example is WSU vs. Kentucky. Nearly equally matched teams. One, laden with freshman five star dudes. The other, not so much.
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Didn’t Kentucky beat Wichita?
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@JayHawkFanToo Didn’t Kentucky get pasted by Bobby Morris in the NIT the previous year?
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Hem said:
“Teams with lesser pure talent win over teams with greater pure talent all the time.”
and used as an example the match up between Kentucky “laden with freshmen five start dudes” and Wichita with “not so much.” However, and as I mentioned, the “freshmen five start dudes” actually won that game. I was referring to the specific match up he mentioned and not the overall performance of the “boy wonders” at UK.
By the way, KU got pasted by TCU…yes, that TCU last year; arguably the most embarrassing loss in recent memory if not in the program history…
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@JayHawkFanToo lol - I lost track a long time ago. It’s Friday, we’re out of the tournament, I’m bored and sleepy at work and I shouldn’t be responding to any of this stuff.
But I’m having fun. Sorry if I’m running my fingernails down the blackboard today.
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No problem. I think we are all frustrated; me probably less since I still have Dayton to look forward.
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@JayHawkFanToo I’ll be rooting for them too. I have no ties whatsoever ( other than you! ), but I’m impressed with them. They hustle like crazy and all seem to have their heads on straight. I’m also intrigued with the whole coaching brothers scenario too.
I hope they hang in there!
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You’re absolutely right that there’s a limit to how many players stick in the NBA. But that number is limited by talent, not just pure numbers.
There are, right now, 360 NBA jobs. I would say pretty confidently that the 200 best basketball players in the world are all playing in the NBA right now. After the top 200, some foreign players decide to stay in their country and make more money, be a star, live closer to family, whatever. But if you are one of the best 200 or so basketball players, there is an NBA job for you - period. The other 160 spots cycle between guys that are probably anywhere from the 201st best player in the world to probably the 600th best player in the world, if there were a way to clearly rank the talents around the world.
In other words, in order to play in the NBA you have to be one of the 600 best basketball players on the planet. If you assume there are 200 million basketball players of adequate age to play in the NBA, that means you are basically talking about the top .000003% of basketball players. So yes, it is a small window.
But here’s the thing. The guys that will have a shot at going to the NBA, ultimately, are going to be mostly the guys that were highly ranked in high school. Basketball is one of the few sports that is extremely predictable in terms of development. If, for example, you want to know who the best senior basketball player in your school district will be in four years, go ask for a list of the best 10 8th graders. The best player in four years will almost certainly be on that list. He may be ranked 1st. He may be ranked 10th. But his name will show up about 95% of the time.
This is why it’s imperative that KU recruit the top players. Maybe they turn into OADs. Maybe they don’t. But the top players are the ones that give you the best shot. You use Florida as an example. One of the guys critical to their success this year - 27th ranked 2010 recruit Patric Young. He took a bit longer to develop than his classmates, but he’s a key cog now. If you skip him because you’re afraid he’s an OAD, you miss out. I bet Michigan State wouldn’t want to be without Adreian Payne (#20). Stanford probably appreciated having Dwight Powell (#25). These guys weren’t OADs, but they were in the range and, as seniors, they demonstrated that ability. Remember, Ennis was ranked in the 20s. If you don’t want a possible OAD like Ennis, you have to skip a guy like Payne or Powell or Young.
Some of the best from the class of 2011 that were still in college this year would include Nick Johnson #18, who I know Arizona would miss and Dorian Finney-Smith (#31), who wound up at Florida and is pretty important to the Gators. DeAndre Daniels (#10) is probably thought of as a huge disappointment, but he averages 12 and 6 for UConn playing 30 minutes a game.
The top players that meet expectations end up in the NBA after a year or two. The ones that don’t become, at the minimum, a rotation level player somewhere.
If we don’t want top 25-30 talent, chances are we will never have quite enough talent to go all the way. That’s not good enough for me.
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I think we are in the same page. My point was that every single HS top 30 player “thinks” he is ready to be a OAD, but in reality very few are; most will have to stay in college longer and develop in order to get a shot.
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Absolutely agreed. My point wasn’t to disagree, but to argue that once they demonstrate that they can produce, even a little bit, they are gone, whether that be after one year or four.
Your point on everyone thinking they are OAD is spot on. I don’t know how many HS players that I have talked to that thought they were D1 material. Never mind that they weren’t playing all that well, they were convinced that they were going to play D1. The truth really doesn’t set in until they really try to go to that next level and see how big that talent gap really is.
