Herrera
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@justanotherfan I just can’t buy those arguments. Not since revenue sharing started in 1999 and the draft changed to allow teams to actually sign the best players. Small-Market clubs have seen more success than ever since those rules were put in place.
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It is the equivalent of the KU-UConn basketball conundrum that has been discussed before. Do you rather have a team like UConn that wins a national championship every few years and the rest of the time sucks and misses the dance altogether or a team like KU that wins consistently including the conference title but not a national championship nearly as often?
I know a couple that both went to UConn and would take KU’s record in a heartbeat but there are KU fans that would prefer the UConn record.
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@Crimsonorblue22 Kinda stupid huh? That would be like the Chiefs trading Alex Smith or something…
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I enjoy watching the young guys try out for their spots. Sometimes the big market teams find success in starting over. See Boston’s sell off of Gonzalez, Crawford and Beckett to LA.
This allowed them to promote and retain Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi, along with affording Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrell, . I remember watching that team of youngsters trying out for their spots. It was fun. Also, for Boston fans, it was fun going a World Series the next year after the firesale. That kind of success has to be unexpected, but long term sustainability was the goal I’m sure.
To @Kcmatt7 's point, I don’t think the size of the club matters as much as savvy draft picks and a commitment to not selling the bulk of your prospects. There will be more volatility if you’re a seller at the deadline, and that kind of sucks, but I don’t think you can commit to finishing out contracts on movable assets if you don’t have a realistic chance to win it all. If you move assets at the deadline, and keep the farm system loaded, all it takes is a couple of kids to come up and be studs for you to be in really good shape, and then maybe deal a prospect for a missing piece.
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Should’ve traded him for a 30 pack, I realize he probably wouldn’t have been resigned after the season and the royals are going nowhere fast but would’ve been smart to try and get something decent for him.
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Too bad he didn’t pitch for some east coast team, he’d be a nationally known superstar. From Sox perspective he won’t be missed in our division but what a great pitcher he’s been.
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@approxinfinity Bingo. Sure, big market teams can buy an extra guy or two. But, the best Yankee squads came from in house prospects. The Royals just won the WS with “home grown” players. The Cardinals almost exclusively and consistently win with guys they develop themselves.
Now that every team has the ability to have a payroll over $100M, there is no reason for a team to not be able to compete besides cheapo ownership or poor building of the organization from the GM.
I just can’t look at what the Cardinals do, in a marginally larger market, and believe that small market teams “can’t afford to be consistently good.” It’s baloney. Cardinals have won 80 games in 18 of the last 20 seasons and been to the playoffs 12 times. You just have to have the commitment to the farm system and not the Major League ball club. That has to be priority one. Priority two is keeping your own players that do break through to the majors, providing that contract won’t turn into a burden on the team.
The Cardinals may spend $170M on payroll, but at the same time, they don’t waste any of it. They only have $6M in “dead” salary. That is only 3% of their payroll. So they are effectively using the other 97%. The Royals have $26.5M in “dead” salary and that is 19% of their $139M payroll.
And that, above, is the difference between a long-term approach and a short-term approach. That is how you consistently win 80 or more games and make the playoffs consistently. That is how you win 19 pennants and 11 World Series.
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KC is the # 29 market and St Louis the #29 and 47% larger.
The Royals current TV contract is for 12 years (2008-2019) and is worth $240M. The St Louis current TV contracts is 15 years (2018-2032) and is worth $1B.
The royals payroll is #20 at 129.9M and St Louis Payroll is the #10 at $161M or 24% bigger.
Not exactly apples to apples, wouldn’t you agree?
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Absolutely apples to apples.
Old CBA ranked STL and KC as the 26th and 27th markets based on their own formula. But besides that, the Cardinals don’t have a top 10 MLB market, size wise. The highest I’ve seen them ranked is 19th. So, in theory, they shouldn’t have the 10th highest payroll year in and year out. Yet they do…
They don’t have a top 10 market share, yet they have a top 3 attendance number and a top 3 TV ratings number.
They are 19th in market size, but they just got a $1B TV deal… Certainly not the 19th worst TV deal.
You’ve proved my point. Cardinals are able to outperform their market size by investing in their own players and maximizing the money they do spend. They have the Warren Buffett of Payrolls. They do not waste a dime and are able to compete with the big boys year in and year out because of it.
The Royals could absolutely outperform their market size with a similar approach.
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@JayHawkFanToo Total aside, but Glass bought the Royals for $96 million. The franchise is now worth over $1 billion. I’ve always argued that Glass has so increased his investment that quibbling over $25 million in a calendar year has no merit from Glass’ end. The idea that he should break even in any year misses the point in my opinion – which I’ve heard Dayton Moore say a few times.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/193637/franchise-value-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/
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The Cardinals are one of the oldest MLB teams, and as a result, have a lot of history. That helps them outperform market size.
The Cincinnati Reds also tend to outperform their market size. That long history certainly helps. Same story with the Detroit Tigers, and to some degree, the Cleveland Indians.
Of the oldest MLB teams, the only ones that don’t tend to outperform their market are the Pittsburgh Pirates and Oakland A’s (caveat being that the A’s have moved multiple times, so their history in Oakland is very short compared to the other historic clubs.
I think that makes a difference.
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@justanotherfan I don’t that has anything to do with it.
Ownership is what makes that difference. Commitment to winning. Under Kauffman, the Royals averaged 83.7 wins. Even as an expansion team they almost immediately became successful. After his death, that number fell to 72 wins. (excluding all shortened seasons). Of course this had everything to do with the fact that Glass would have fought you for a penny from 1995-2007.
The Cardinals have had owners that cared about St. Louis and winning it’s entire lifetime. Yankees have too. When the Royals were good, Kauffman would do anything to win. Period…
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I’ve been to both parks. I love the Royals, but the Cards have a much better organization. The stadium is nicer. The owners are more savvy. The GM makes smarter moves. The payroll is larger. The crowd is better and I love a packed Kauffman. The Cards have the second most ws titles also, so that’s a rough comp.
Milwaukee would be a better comp. They suck too.
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@dylans Not sure why you say Milwaukee sucks. They’ve had a decent run the last few years and draw pretty well.
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@justanotherfan I love talking about this stuff and I would add the Sox to your performing compared to market size and make them an underperforming to market size.
Although we won a world series, and were competitive for two straight decades, attendance is a struggle. The park isn’t that hard to get to, but the stadium sucks. The owners are kind of cheap, and of course, the Cubs attract a lot of attention. It’s partially a class thing because the south side is working class and has a reputation of being dangerous, while the north side is yuppie town.
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I get that but the value of a franchise and the revenue it produces are two different things. Look at the revenue they produce and the operating income; the Cardinals generate $74M more revenue and operate in the black while the Royals are in the red. Also, the Cardinals don’t have a football franchise in town to compete for entertainment dollars while the Royals have the very successful Chiefs.
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wissox said:
@dylans Not sure why you say Milwaukee sucks. They’ve had a decent run the last few years and draw pretty well.
Perennial cellar dweller. Only 2 division titles and only one World Series appearance. I thought they had a better past than that. The Robin Yount years weren’t as productive as I thought.
Might’ve been a step too far down actually.
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@dylans I see, it was the overall trend. This year in particular they’ve been very good having the best record in the NL for a while.
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@wissox AND they have been around for forever. Current owners are big cheapos for sure.
While I do admit it is hard to compete with the Cubs, the owners seem to care less about trying to change any persona or reach a new audience at all.
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@JayHawkFanToo the Cardinals, up until two years ago, had a football team AND they have a hockey team competing for dollars.
AND they still put up crazy revenue, ticket sales, and had a top 10 payroll back then.
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@Kcmatt7 they are trying to win. Their minor league is loaded and will be very competitive in 2 years or so.
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…and St Louis had the NFL Cardinals as well and lost it. It is a baseball first city and the Cardinals have been there for well over 100 years and are one of the most successful franchises in sports.
The Cardinals are the top team in a market that is over 40% larger than KC with no football competition and derive $75M more income per year where the Royals run a distant second to the Chiefs in KC which is football first town. Think about it, with an extra $75M, the Royals could take 5 players with $5M salaries and replace them with 5 players with $20M salaries…a huge talent differential. While both teams are in the same state, the market size, fan preference and revenue are quite different and this is why the franchise is worth twice as much as the Royals. Apples and oranges comparison.
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@wissox We will see. I don’t know that I buy it quite yet. Abreu is getting older and the rest of your infield is very average. Giolito was supposed to be an important piece of all of this and he has struggled.
If you can’t get your rotation in better shape, I just don’t think you have a playoff team. The Royals WS team had 6 guys with an OPS over .800. White Sox project to have only 3-4 barring drastic improvement or career years from some guys currently on the roster.
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@JayHawkFanToo You are acting like I’m trying to say the Royals can be exactly as successful as the Cardinals. That’s really not what I’m trying to say.
I’m simply stating how they are able to outperform their market through smart investing and maximizing their own roster and farm system. I’m comparing how they are able to win against the big boys year in and year out despite not being one of them.
I’m not stating that I think the Royals can BE the Cardinals and win 88 games on average during the same time period that Glass has owned the Royals.
I’m stating that the Royals could average 80 wins. That is slightly below a winning record, but good enough to be interesting through July a majority of the time. I’m stating that I believe they can have seasons in the high 70s and seasons in the 80s, consistently. That is not unattainable.
As far as seeing another team outperform their market, it absolutely is apples to apples. The Rays do it too, averaging 83 wins for a 10 year stretch now, with a Hockey and Football team in the same town, no fan support, no history, a teeny tiny payroll, and playing in a stadium that everyone hates. But, but but but but but but but…
Enough. Quit making excuses for the Royals ownership and executives and ask yourself two very easy questions.
- Do the Royals maximize their own payroll every single year?
- Are the Royals developing quality MLB players a rate similar to their peers?
Those are the only two questions that matter.
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@Kcmatt7 The White Sox just had 20 guys play in minor league all star games. And the White Sox have a very low payroll with a ton of money to spend on next years stellar free agent class. I’m still optimistic the rebuild is going to be successful. I am tired of the losing for sure.
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The Royals are the 3rd lowest valued baseball franchise and while the owners have equity the revenue is not high, in fact one of the lower one, baseball is still a business and the Royals are currently operating in the red which is not a sustainable business model. What do you suggest the owners do? Continue pumping and losing their own money? Borrow money to increase payroll? If they cannot meet the current payroll how are they going maintain a higher payroll and service the debt?
The Royals have the 19th highest payroll at $115M (St Louis is 13th at $247M) and yet the went to back to back World Series with many players developed by the team minor league affiliates which made the players that much more valuable to the point the team could not keep them; it is a catch 22 situation.
So yes, the Royals have developed good players and the back to back World Series appearances would indicate they maximized payroll. However, this is a situation thst will continue to repeat, the team will develop prospects, became very good until the success makes the player too expensive and the team goes back to rebuild mode.
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@JayHawkFanToo It is bad business to use all of your cash and assets to have one good year. It is stupid to do it and not expect to lose money later. And, you have a false narrative that “we can’t afford to keep our own players.” It’s 100% false. FAKE NEWS.
If the Royals make no trade after the Greinke trade, they are a competitive bunch right now.
Starting Pitchers:
- Duffy
- Odorizzi
- Montgomery
- Lamb
- Manaea
Pen:
- Junis
- Herrera
- Finnegan
Lineup:
- C Salvy
- 1B Hos
- 2B Whit
- 3B Moose
- SS - Esky
- LF - Gordo
- CF - Cain
- RF - Myers
- DH - Bonifacio/Dozier
- 4OF - Dyson
All of that could be had for $110M. That would be a team ERA under 4.00, 6 players with an OPS above .750 and a significantly better defensive team. This is with several players having career down years and, not hitting on our top draft pick in 8 straight years. 4 of which were top 10- picks. If we hit on any of those drafts, we are talking a legit division contender with a real shot at a pennant.
- 2009 Draft: Royals Select Aaron Crow - No longer with team. Could have picked: Shelby Miller, Kyle Gibson, Mike Trout
- 2010 Draft: Royals Select Christian Colon - No longer with team. Could have picked: Drew Pomeranz, Mat Harvey, Yasmani Grandal, Chris Sale, Chris Yelich
- 2011 Draft: Royals Select Bubba Starling - Not made it to the pros yet. Could have picked: Archie Bradley, Anthony Rendon, Javy Bayez, Cory Spangenberg, Francisco Lindor, George Springer, Jose Fernandez, CJ Cron, Sonny Gray, Kolten Wong, Joe Panik, Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Fulmer
- 2012 Draft: Royals Select Kyler Simmer - Not made it to the pros yet. Could have picked: Addison Russell, Corey Seager, Michael Wacha, Tyler Naquin, Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, Lance McCullers Jr.
- 2013 Draft: Royals Select Hunter Dozier: Just made it to the pros. Could have picked: Austin Meadows, Dominic Smith, Hunter Renfroe, Tim Anderson, Marco Gonzalez, Aaron Judge, Corey Knebel, Cody Bellinger
- 2014 Draft: Royals Select Brandon Finnegan - No longer with team.
- 2015: Draft: Ashe Russell - No longer playing baseball.
- 2016 Draft: No first round pick due to signing Kennedy.
Imagine being able to let Hosmer walk because you have Bellinger coming behind. Or Gordon for Springer. Or Cain for a panned out Bubba. Or Replacing esky with Ashe Russel or Francisco Lindor or Corey Seager. Imagine having Baez at 2nd and being able to have a true utility guy in Whit. I mean, the possibilities are endless if we can hit on one or two of these picks in 8 years.
If you hit on just one of those guys, we are able to spend $20M in free agency, or $20M to keep one of our own players. But drafting and keeping your own players is absolutely affordable and sustainable. You just have to hit on them more consistently than we are.
The perfect storm that got us to the WS is NOT sustainable or even able to be replicated imo. Think about the things that had to go right to get there. First, Greinke had to become a potential HOFer after almost leaving baseball. The trade we made produced Cain, Esky and Odorizzi. We flipped Myers and Odorizzi to get Davis and Shields. Davis was a throw in piece who became an elite closer, not something that we planned. We were the first team to form the super bullpen, giving us a distinct competitive advantage. However, that pen was formed out of pure luck from failed starters. Add in the Morales had a career year with us, as did Volquez and I find it almost impossible for us to ever repeat a WS in that fashion.
It has to be through retention and development of our own players. And, as I pointed out above, that is actually affordable. It may even be the most profitable option than an up and down payroll combined with and up and down on field performance that makes attendance nearly impossible to predict. The Royals CAN be consistent.
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The Royals simply cannot miss with high picks.
The Royals picked in the top 5 in back to back drafts and took Starling and Colon. They took the often injured Kyle Zimmer right after that. Those three drafts brought us here.
Zimmer didn’t have an injury history, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Colon was thought of as having a highest floor of many of the potential picks. Starling was expected to at least be able to hold his own at the plate.
When three straight high draft picks miss, you end up here. If the Royals had Stroman, Springer and Sale, they are in a different place. Or maybe they get unlucky and Sale blows out his arm after the draft and Springer develops more slowly because he is buried in the minors with no MLB openings on a team ready to compete.
The Royals whiffed three times. When you are a small market team, you can’t miss more than maybe once every three or four years, and never when you have a top 5 pick.
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@justanotherfan Bubba one is extra tough when you look at who we could have gotten. About half of the first round picks ended up panning out. Probably one of the deepest drafts in a very long time.
We clearly have a scouting or development problem. Probably both.I don’t see us being good for at least another 5 years unless the multiple pitchers that we got this year develop quickly. I really doubt we see Dayton as the GM the next time the Royals are competitive.
Sure, the Royals could have still had the same bad luck with other picks. But it is another level of ineptitude to whiff as badly as they did with the opportunities they were presented.
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@Kcmatt7 great post. Thanks for spelling out the draft misses.
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Every team misses players in the draft because they are basically selecting unknown players that may or may not work at the higher level. Same in every sport, sometimes you pick an Anrio Adams and sometimes you pick a Mason or Graham, sometimes you pick an Oden and sometimes you pick a Durant. OKC drafted back to back to back Durant, Westbrook and Harden that became back to back to back NBA MVPs and only Westbrook is still and did it with OKC which has not title to show for it.
You showed what the current line up would be, can you list the salaries for the players on it and the total payroll?
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@Kcmatt7 Man, it’s amazing that the Royals actually made the World Series twice with the level of incompetence you describe. Are so intent on here on being critical that you ignore that Dayton Moore gave this city two world series appearances and a world series title, after 30 years of virtually nothing? He knows the path. He’s proven it.
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@HighEliteMajor Without Greinke to trade from the previous regime, he never makes the World Series.
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Kcmatt7 said:
@HighEliteMajor Without Greinke to trade from the previous regime, he never makes the World Series.
…and yet, he did it…twice, back to back. He obviously made some good decisions.
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@Kcmatt7 That is perhaps the weakest argument I’ve heard. Like, epically weak. So, a GM takes what he has, a franchise that has been historically bad, and turns it into a world series winner, and you demean that – because he traded a guy on the roster when he arrived? You might need to recalibrate your compass on this topic.
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There is missing picks in the draft, and then there is literally not producing a single pro baseball player with your first pick since 2007.
You also have to take into consideration that Dayton had scouting notes from Braves scouts still when he first got here and hit on Hos, Moose and Montgomery. But two years removed from the Braves organization and he hasn’t produced a single Major League player that is still with the ball club today. You say that it is hard to hit on picks. But 21 of 30 teams have been able to hit on their first pick in a draft since 2009 and still keep that player on their team today. 15 teams have hit on two or more players who are still on their team. 4 of the 9 teams that have not hit on a pick actually have winning records, but mainly from major trades that have stocked their farm system even more or they are the Yankees. (Who hit on Judge in the compensatory part of round 1, so I did not count him). Jose Fernandez’s death is the reason the Marlins do not have one. I’ll let you look at the data below:
In the graft below, I put together an overlaying graph that shows a pretty good correlation between hitting on draft picks and current wins this season. As you can see below, there are a few outliers. But for the most part, if teams hit on their first picks, they typically are winning more games.
As you can see, the Royals have not hit on anyone. That means they are not developing talent as well as their peers. They are missing on the draft more than their peers. And their current record shows exactly that.
I’m very confident that I could do the same thing with teams carrying dead money and results would come out similar. Meaning, the Royals are also not utilizing their payroll EVERY year.
Pos Name Salary C Salvy 8,700,000.00 CF Cain 13,000,000.00 1B Hos 21,000,000.00 3B Moose 5,500,000.00 4OF Dyson 3,750,000.00 SS Esky 2,500,000.00 LF Gordo 20,000,000.00 DH Bonifacio 561,900.00 2B Merrifield 569,500.00 RF Myers 4,500,000.00 SP Duffy 14,000,000.00 LR Junis 554,250.00 CL Herrera 3,456,625.00 SU Finnegan 577,500.00 SP Odorizzi 6,300,000.00 SP Montgomery 611,250.00 SP Lamb 545,000.00 SP Manaea 550,000.00 Total 106,676,025.00
Teams Total WAR Players Arizona 24.6 AJ Pollock 19.6 WAR Archie Bradley 5.0 WAR Atlanta 0 None Baltimore 36.2 Dylan Bundy 6.4 WAR Manny Machado 29.8 WAR Boston 7.1 Matt Barnes 1.9 WAR Andrew Benintendi 5.2 WAR Chicago Cubs 38.3 Javy Baez 8 WAR Albert Almora 3.7 WAR Kris Bryant 21.4 WAR Kyle Schwarber 3.3 WAR Ian Happ 1.9 WAR Chicago White Sox 5.3 Tim Anderson 5.3 WAR Cincinnati Reds 0 None Cleveland Indians 21.8 Francisco Lindor 20.4 WAR Tyler Naquin 1.4 WAR Colorado Rockies 19.2 Tyler Anderson 5.8 WAR David Dahl 1.2 WAR Jon Gray 5.8 WAR Kyle Freeland 6.4 WAR Detroit 0 None Houston 46.5 George Springer 18.5 WAR Carlos Correa 19.5 WAR Alex Bregman 8.5 WAR Kansas City 0 None LA Dogers 14.8 Corey Seager 13.7 WAR Walker Buehler 1.1 WAR LA Angles 60.7 Mike Trout 60.7 WAR Miami 0 None (Jose Fernandez Death) Milwuakee 0 None Minnesota 14.4 Kyle Gibson 7.4 WAR Byron Buxton 7.0 WAR NY Met 10.6 Brandon Nimmo 3.5 WAR Michael Conforto 7.1 WAR NY Yankees 0 None Philly 10.3 JP Crawford .7 WAR Aaron Nola 9.6 WAR Oakland 7.5 Matt Chapman 7.5 WAR Pittsburg 0.3 Austin Meadows .3 WAR Seattle 5.7 Mike Zuzino 5.7 WAR San Diego 4.9 Cory Spangenberg 2.9 WAR Hunter Renfroe 2.0 WAR Tampa Bay 0 None San Francisco Giants 8.9 Joe Panik 7.1 WAR Chris Stratton 1.8 WAR Texas 0 None St. Louis 25.5 Shelby Miller 9.2 WAR Kolten Wong 8.6 WAR Michael Wacha 7.4 WAR Luke Weaver .3 WAR Toronto 10.1 Marcus Stroman 10.1 WAR Washington 70.9 Stephen Strasburg 26.1 WAR Bryce Harper 26.6 WAR Anthony Rendon 18.2 WAR
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@HighEliteMajor My point is that he didn’t develop a single player in that trade. And that I don’t trust him to develop anyone in the future since he has proven he can’t do it now over a 10 year stretch.
Call it whatever you want, but the truth is that Dayton is unable to develop Major League talent. And without someone else doing it for him, he never makes a World Series.
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@JayHawkFanToo He made that good decision. It was one of the best trades of all time, ever.
But winning the lottery once is more of an outlier than proof. He has done nothing consistently well.
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HighEliteMajor said:
@Kcmatt7 Man, it’s amazing that the Royals actually made the World Series twice with the level of incompetence you describe. Are so intent on here on being critical that you ignore that Dayton Moore gave this city two world series appearances and a world series title, after 30 years of virtually nothing? He knows the path. He’s proven it.
Aren’t you the person who usually gets upset when people tell you not to criticize Bill Self?
Bill Self won a NC for the first time in 20 years. Yet you criticize him. Despite proving it year in and year out. Bill’s down year is still winning the conference.
Dayton’s down year is being the worst team in baseball.
I think I can be critical of him for that.
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@Kcmatt7 HCBS won a NC for a school that has a tradition of being good, had been in the F4 the two years before he arrived, and that is in the championship discussion year after year. It is reasonable to conclude that he has underachieved compared to the number of times he has had one of the best teams in the country and a slew of number 1 seeds.
Dayton Moore came to a loser and developed it into a winner.
I am a fan of both men, but there is a big difference in the steepness of their climbs to their titles.
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@Kcmatt7 One small issue, some of those players (Hos included) don’t want to be in KC.
I’d add to your post to by saying the Royals messed up by giving an injured Gordon a huge contract while letting others get away. Alex isn’t very good anymore, but he’s got a big check coming. The rest of the rapid decline was due to the inability to recognize the true strength of the team was the bullpen. DM trades them off piece by piece and the team got worse with each reliever traded. To top it all off Ace got killed and he was the heart of the rotation. His absence has destroyed the fire I used to see in the team. Sad really.
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@dylans I think everything you said is pretty spot on.
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Your payroll figure for the Royals is incomplete; the 2018 payroll is ~$138M. Here is a source and every one I have seen of the complete payroll is about the same.
We can go on forever and we will not agree. You think the Royals management sucks and I think that under the conditions and limitation it is doing reasonably well.
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@JayHawkFanToo That payroll figure I posted was for the team they would have if they just kept everyone. I posted it, like you asked.
I don’t think that management sucks, per se. I think ownership has limitations. And I think Dayton made great moves in his first 2 years of his time in KC.
I also don’t think that a WS win should mean we don’t look at managment’s decisions. Essentially every move made isn’t able to be analyzed for 6 years. We are seeing what bad decisions 6 years ago look like today. And it is clear that we have been unable to produce a major league product through either the draft or poor development.
