What Are the Odds in Vegas of this Incoming KU Recruiting Class Fulfilling Their Hype?
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As everyone with a burned neural net can tell, I don’t follow apparently asymmetric recruiting very closely.
I have read a lot of optimism in recent years about “the incoming class,” but each season “the incoming class” has fallen significantly short of expectations, and turned out to have been characterized by one, or at most two, players that could actually play their first season in D1.
The posts here recently have seemed quite ebullient about this next “incoming class.”
Are any of the experienced recruiting researchers here able to estimate any discounting factor that I should apply to current expectations, so I can formulate a reasonably adjusted expectation of what the latest “incoming class” will likely ACTUALLY do next season?
Please help me understand the difference of this “incoming class” that so distinguishes it from other recent “incoming classes.”
I am not a doubter. I am a realist. What should one REALLY expect out of next season’s “incoming class?”
Rock Chalk!!!
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Self is getting his primary targets. We should be excited to see what he can do with the guys he wants! Other than that, who knows how it’ll turn out? That’s half the fun, but it’s nice playing with a loaded deck.
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I always get a little worried because you never know how these guys will pan out. We all remember the KU fab 5 with Stewart, Wilkes, Giddens, Padgett and Case (the only guy that lasted). Happy to have those guys for sure but let’s becareful.
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“Please help me understand the difference of this “incoming class” that so distinguishes it from other recent “incoming classes.””
Dump trucks are turning on to Naismith Drive.
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@jaybate-1.0 We just have to hope that they are quick learners, responsive to coaching, bent on team play and determined to focus on defense above all else. Unselfish blenders who recognize from the outset precisely what Bill Self intends for them. And will they adjust harmonically with Doke, Vick, Newman…if any or all of those 3 are still in the fold.
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@REHawk Oops! Forgot a 4th guy: Preston.
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drgnslayr said:
Dump trucks are turning on to Naismith Drive.
That sounds ominous.
Like…
The Dump Truck Le Stat.
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@jaybate-1-0 What distinguishes this class? Rankings and numbers.
All top 50 guys, and four of them (with bulk and on the ball skill). But what also distinguishes this class is that we have three additional players sitting this season which are de facto part of the class (of which one of the three is a true stud).
I’m not giddy yet.
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One thing that is being overlooked is how much better KU can get this season. KU will be adding at least one, Cunlife, and potentially two more, Preston and Silvio, top 50 players at or before the end of the year; no other school can make that claim.
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I wouldn’t say their is a major difference in this class to others. But the Volume (7 guys including transfers) makes it exciting. Self has landed 4 guys in the Top 35 and they were all primary targets (De Sousa was mostly unknown). This class felt like Self got over the hump on the recruiting front as he landed guys he really went for instead of scrambling for other options when missing out on kids (which seemed to be becoming the norm). That probably has something to do with it. For those that follow recruiting Dotson & Grimes are rewarding victories the staff landed.
The one negative about this 2018 class in general is its a down class. It’s real top heavy, has maybe a handful of quality bigs, great guard depth, not a ton of immediate NBA potential but at the top there’s a few potential NBA all-stars. KU did a great job landing top talent where it could and avoiding having to target guys outside the Top 100 which would have been in my opinion a bad thing to do in this class.
We landed in my mind two immediate impact guards. The bigs have great potential. I don’t know how much of an impact they will have yet. De Sousa could be joining the team soon which could impact how soon he contributes. Enjoy the ride. I think we will see varying degrees of contributions from all in Yr 1 but the future looks bright
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@JayHawkFanToo Every morning, my first internet stop is to see if Preston is in or out. I can’t express in words how important he could be to our chances this year.
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Good distillation. Thx.
We are at a class of four with another possibility, or two, plus three from this past season getting eligible after sitting out a season.
How it all looks next season depends significantly, as usual, on who jumps from this season.
It could range from a long stack, to at least a short, or medium.
If the Feds stay away, we just water the garden.
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From the moment they signed him, and I watched his footage, I thought Preston was a potential shirt-in-the-rafters kind of a player, if he ever mastered his motor.
Apparent front end baggage plus early-issue creation plus the NBA’s early drafting of bigs, mean he may not even play much at KU.
But as it stands, he is the possible difference between a very good team with an anchor big that has to go small for significant periods of games, to a ring challenger that can stay big, or small, in games against all comers all the way to April.
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With each day that goes by I see Preston getting more distant and Silvio being the more realistic addition.
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@JayHawkFanToo BTW, T Tech beat 20th ranked Northwestern by 35, and OU and TCU look tough as a boot, so maybe the B12 isn’t as down as much as originally thought.
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I mentioned that before based on the KemPom analysis and I was told it was wrong, wrong, wrong.
The Big 12 has KU as a perennial contender and usually one or two teams with some potential, 4 or 5 that are legitimate top 20 and the rest usually solid top 50 with maybe 1 below that. Other conferences have two or three title contender a few more solid teams but the bottom half is soft. The Big 12 has been pretty solid top to bottom and finished consistently in the top 2 in recent years.
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KUSTEVE said:
@JayHawkFanToo BTW, T Tech beat 20th ranked Northwestern by 35, and OU and TCU look tough as a boot, so maybe the B12 isn’t as down as much as originally thought.
One thing we can be confidant of: no matter how good the Big 12 is, it will appear to be underestimated by an Eastern SPorts Network, unless some bet balancing requires it to be briefly hyped.
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@JayHawkFanToo If the B12 conference could get 3 or 4 teams into the Sweet 16, then they could overcome the “paper tiger” moniker. It’s kind of hard for me to swallow how great the conference is when most of the time, it’s only us in the Sweet 16. But, maybe this year could be different.
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Is the Big-12 really that good?
Or is the pursuit of taking down Kansas which is 13 years running motivated the other programs to play above their pay grade?
