Why Self and other recruit OADs



  • https://www.seccountry.com/kentucky/kentucky-basketball-recruiting-john-calipari-one-and-done

    Its from Cal’s mouth, but I think it says a lot about why the top tier programs don’t go after guys ranked 25-100 like they do the top 1-25.



  • I didn’t realized Mo Bamba was ranked #2 overall. Awesome! Now KU has an in conference stud to pound on.



  • Look at KU’s own history with lower ranked guys.

    Andrew White, Brannen Greene, Royce Woolridge and Rio Adams were all lower ranked recruits that came. Only Greene lasted more than two years, and he never started. White, Woolridge and Adams all bounced around after leaving. It could be argued that those three would have been better off going to a different school as opposed to trying to stick at KU.

    For many of those guys, being ranked outside the top 50 at a school like KU is basically like being a walk-on, except that you would actually play at maybe 340 of the other schools at the D1 level. That knowledge gets frustrating after a while.



  • justanotherfan said:

    Look at KU’s own history with lower ranked guys.

    Andrew White, Brannen Greene, Royce Woolridge and Rio Adams were all lower ranked recruits that came. Only Greene lasted more than two years, and he never started. White, Woolridge and Adams all bounced around after leaving. It could be argued that those three would have been better off going to a different school as opposed to trying to stick at KU.

    For many of those guys, being ranked outside the top 50 at a school like KU is basically like being a walk-on, except that you would actually play at maybe 340 of the other schools at the D1 level. That knowledge gets frustrating after a while.

    Rankings are 247 composite and then 247 ranking.

    Brannen Greene #35/27. You don’t have to leave but you can’t stay here after three years.

    Andrew White III #54/69. Transfer after one year.

    BMac #39/35. OAD (essentially).

    Conner #43/43. Quit the team after one year.

    Frank Mason #117/52. KU PG GOAT.

    Devonte Gram #99/93. Great 4 year player that we were all thrilled came back for his SR year.

    Svi #232/31. Solid four year contributor.

    Lagerald Vick #88/29. Story yet to be written.

    Recruiting is a bit of a crap shoot outside of the top 20 or so.



  • And even in the top 20 then sometimes you have Cheick situations.



  • @BShark

    …and Cliff Alexander and Carlton Bragg and…



  • @Kcmatt7

    I call bull biscuits on Cal!!!

    All coaches recruit and sign the best guys they can!!!

    That is obviousness mastering.

    Cal appears to sign the best guys Nike and Wes can bring him access to.

    Watch how many lesser guys Cal signs, if Cal fires Wes and Cal and U.K. sign with Keds!

    Never read such a disinformation stack of bull biscuits outside politics.



  • @jaybate-1.0 Question - don’t you think some coaches purposefully do not pursue OADs, which are the supposed best players? Like John Beilein? He certainly could compete for them but chooses not to. And I do think others could compete but stay out of that murky pool – many times an allocation of resources vs likelihood of reward issue.



  • @HighEliteMajor

    I believe you are on the right track with a tradeoff calculus. Here is how I hypothesize the phenomenon you refer to.

    It appears some coaches with some brands and agents that draw well in certain viewer/bettor markets experience a kind of preferred access to top talent. If true, it would probably only take a handful of such coaches to soak up so much of that sort of talent that can win rings as freshman that it would make sense for other coaches that “could” recruit such talent to become so discouraged by the low probability of signing such talent that they simply adopt a Plan B talent suboptimization strategy, where they focus on lesser talent full time, and expect only anomalies of Plan A talent to show up rarely. Until I see evidence other than exceptions that suggest a rule, my hypothesis remains.

    Regarding Beilin, in particular, he appears a fit to my hypothesis (and your trade off calculus) and be supported for the time being by U of Michigan leadership, which appears to have learned from its Fab Five scandal not to jeopardize its football cash cow by taking too much risk in the murky asymmetries of basketball recruiting.

    Rock Chalk!


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