KU's March Depends on Frank Staying Hot or...
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@ralster we need everyone, the chances of getting in foul trouble are high if you play the 6 games. I think some of it is the law of averages. Think about how we struggled with Davidson in 08 and how Nova struggled and barely escaped us last year. To get there it takes a team effort. Hopefully these guys remember how close they were to being a NC team last year. I think our guys play hard most of the time but sometimes it’s like we must be down 10 or so before we really start to fight. Which we can’t afford to do in NCAAs, teams are too good.
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Nice conversation.
Yeah… the real top talent players find ways to get theirs, whether it be from the field of FT line. And when absolutely nothing is falling for them, they find other ways to help their team win.
Basketball is a complex game and there are so many areas to positively impact the game. Top players know that and their main goal is to help their team win, not build their stat sheet. This has been a problem with Carmelo Anthony’s career. Many have questioned his motives and he has been on some pretty bad teams. He finally compensated for his reputation during the Olympics, by making sure he was “the man” that helped his teammates win.
I really like our team and I like our chances. But I have to admit, a big part of my optimism relates to having Frank on this team. I believe in his heart, his desire, and his ability to execute!
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Foul trouble early kills us! Mason and ll at wv, jj multiple times and Dg nova game last year.
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Knowing how competetive Frank is, that Nova game, the WSU game, the Stanford game, all probably stoked his fire…he on a mission now.
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@ralster I always thought that Kentucky killing has inspired frank more than anything.
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@JayHawkFanToo It reminds me of mlb, where you get a hitter utilizing a new skill, or a pitcher learning a new pitch that changes their results. Now, practically every sabermatician is going to project Moose Moustakas to hit 22 hrs this upcoming year. The past shows that would be a reasonable assessment. However, it won’t show the major adjustment he made last year ( in a small sample size ) that portends a major Moose breakout. Moose is a late bloomer- watch for him to pass the 30 HR range easily this year.
I really think Frank is a late bloomer as well. Last year he was a good player, but he wasn’t a game finisher. Frank this year is physically and mentally stronger than last year, and might be the most clutch player in America this year. He is due for more positive regression, simply due to his improved skills, and his increased confidence. No doubt he will show up better in the NCAA tournament than years past. I absolutely think he can hit over 50% from 3 in the tournament, even when teams try to key on him. You guard him close, and he’s around you in a second- you lay off him, he buries you from deep. Most importantly, I think Frank has conquered the mental aspect of the game. In times past, he would shrink a bit in the spotlight, try to do too much, miss free throws…etc. This new Frank is the best player in basketball, and the NCAA tournament will prove it.
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@kjayhawks said:
@jaybate-1.0 Your 3 numbers are a little off, he averages 2.2 makes off of 4.6 shots per game. He has only shot 134 on the year. I think his knee or leg looks good personally, just think he will need help. Some other guys have to play well other than him for us to make the FF IMO
Thx for the stat. I was remarkably close guessing at his range of 3ptas, wasn’t I? I was at low of 5 and high of 7. Since his average was 4.6 calculated I am tickled pink with my guesstimate.
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@drgnslayr said:
Chance” is the right word.
So hope your right about our chances, but apppearances of the last few years make me wonder if there might also be some “chance” of legal “selection” or “engineering” being involved.
Could it be our turn to be engineered toward, too?
Might they be starting to get a little self conscious about the run of EST winnahs?
Might they be preparing for one loss leader before getting back to another run of EST teams?
Just speculation’ and hypothesizin’.
Not suggesting an illegal conspiracy.
All legal entertainment value hypothesis.
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“…this is a large, season long sample and not an anomaly.”
Tell this to Tyshawn Taylor who fell precipitously from dizzying heights for him his last season.
Frank shot 38% from Trey last season, if I recall correctly.
Frank could not make another shot this season and probably only fall to 38%, which would be shooting back to average.
What makes this all dicey are his injuries. He’s reputedly a great shot. He was “nicked up” last year and shot 38%. This year he has seemed healthier until recently when the one leg started being dragged around. Will high mpg and leg problems turn him into last year’s Frank, or was last year’s Frank the real Frank?
Further, Frank hasn’t had the one big slump each season most outside shooters have–the 4-6 game stretch where they just can’t find the range. It can come any time of year. But it almost always does come.
Frank is ripe for a big slump. He hasn’t had his yet and he has played big minutes and is dragging a leg in early March.
It only takes a couple off shooting games this late for opposing coaches to gamble he is in one and sag off early and choke off our other hot shooters; that’s how losses often happen in March.
Impact players enter slumps at the point of one and out.
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@jaybate-1.0 I dont buy this whole “due for a big slump” nonsense. If you have been shooting 200 jumpers every day or every other day for months, the muscle memory should be solid enough that there isnt a great chance of a “big slump”. For me as a current player, I have yet to experience one of those. Frank can swish open shots all day. Why? Because we know he has worked very hard all summer and this season to become a great three pointer shooter. The whole idea of “he may never hit another shot this season” is utterly ridiculous. Did you ever play basketball? Can shooters not improve?
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@jaybate-1.0 You have to wait until the bracket comes out to prove your point. And prove your point you will ( forgive the Yoda sentence - I thot it sounded cool ). This group has collective amnesia every year.
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Frank’s leg looked FINE as he drove and glided effortlessly to the rim against OkieState (in Stoolwater). Its the shot to the ribs I’m nervous about. Announcers said “got wind knocked out of him”, but he did seem fine by game’s end.
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@ralster his speed last night in the open court was unbelievable - John Wallesque. I am a little concerned also about that shot he took to the midsection - like you said, didnt seem to bother him late in the game.
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Now, I am curious. Please tell what stats for Tayshwan “who fell precipitously from dizzying heights for him his last season.” are you talking about? I seem to recall that Tayshawn’s las season at KU was his best.
As far as Mason, you have your statistics wrong because you are comparing apples with oranges…Senior Mason>>>Junior Mason>>>Sophomore Mason>>>Freshman Mason. You are assuming, incorrectly, that this year’s Mason is the same as last or previous year’s Mason…obviously he is not, he is much improved in all aspects of his game, including shooting, and this is why he is the leader for POY.
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@JayHawkFanToo you talkin bout Tyrone Tanner?
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???
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I ain’t selling.
But if I were, you would be wise to buy it.
I’ve never met a coach, or a player, that hasn’t used the word slump to describe players going through stretches where they aren’t making many baskets that they usually make.
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I recall Quantum T was over 40 percent from trey entering the conference tournament. His final season was the first season that he had really become a serious three point threat clicking above 40% for most of the season. Then he went cold as ice starting in the conference tourney, I believe, and he spent the entire NCAA tournament mired in a 3pt slump. If I recall he wound up somewhere around 38% from trey for the season, right?
Taaaaa daaaaa!
Bring on the yellow bird photo with the drill. I want to photoshop the suckah!!!
I love that photo. I always know I’m getting deep into your neural nets when you bring it out.
I’ve been a little derelict in my duties to the board lately in not stimulating you enough, but I haven’t been myself lately. A couple of nasty bugs in a row…
C’mon, we’re 28-3, I’m feeling better and if I have to needle you to get this board juiced I guess that’s what I have to do, right?
Bring it on, Mr. Engineer!!!
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You are good at offering opinion as fact. How about you show some actual links and numbers to support your claim.
Tayshawn shot 0.382 from the 3 for the season and a slightly better 0.398 during conference. Note that the year before he shot 0.380 for the year while shooting 0.409 during conference. KU and Mason have the most games of any team against top 10, top 25 and top 50 teams so he has seen some of the tougher defenses and he has done just fine.
All players have off games where part of their game does not click. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, arguably two of the better 3 point shooters ever, combined for 3 of 22 from 3 a couple of days ago…does this mean they will continue shooting at the same rate? Absolutely not. Chances are they will go back to shooting their usual average.
Mason has already had well below average shooting games but he bounced right back. There is ZERO evidence or reason to think he will go on a long slump. Yes, he might have a poor shooting gamve from the 3 but he will continue driving and scoring, dishing assists and rebounding like he always does, and again, you have provided nothing to prove otherwise.
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@JayHawkFanToo hey, quit using stats and facts to back up your argument. You know JB only likes theories. Don’t you know that players can’t improve their shot?
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@JayHawkFanToo said:
You are good at offering opinion as fact.
Nope. Try never to offer opinion as fact.
Try to offer opinion as opinion, speculation as speculation, hypothesis as hypothesis, and recall as recall.
But you are danged good at accusing me of offering opinion as fact, though!!!
Yeeeee hawwwwwwwwww!!!
Sometimes it appears that you have been to a school that teaches someone how to accuse someone else about things they don’t do. But do you see how I said “sometimes it appears” and I did not say you HAVE been. I don’t know, if you have been.
Is what you’re sayin’ what they mean by baseless accusations?
That’s more like it what it sounds like than fact, but again I cain’t be sure.
Say, where’s that darned graphic, so I can photo shop it!!!
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@HawkChamp said:
You know JB only likes theories.
I don’t just like theories, I LOVE theories, because they are empirically verified hypotheses in my nomenclature.
And I hate (well, really I just kinda dislike) conspiracy theories and those that advance them as “theories” unless they are statistically verified and proven in a court of law by a jury; that’s my standard for that stuff, or at least what I try to make as my standard. I am categorically opposed, or at least try to be, to all conspiracy theories except those that are proven, and the proven ones sure don’t require moi to try to prove them because they are, well, already proven…to master the obvious, right?
Next, I don’t ever recall having posited and empirically verified an inductive theory about basketball for this web site. I always try to deal in speculations, opining, chit, chat, joking around, and hypothesizing and try to make clear to readers that that is all I, as a fan, am trying to do. I’m a danged fan, not uh egg head researcher, or a member of the authorities.
Further, I don’t recall a single theory being proven by a single board rat on this web site with statistically verified confidence of 95%, do you?
Some board rats often call things theories that just plum aren’t theories in my nomenclature; that’s fine if they want to. But that don’t make it mean what the words mean to me and don’t agree with how I try to use them. Theories? Why, in my nomenclature they take a lot of time and resources to empirically verify and some times empirical verification (with confidence intervals) are darned hard to come by in subjects of basketball chat, don’t you agree?
When was the last time you rigorously and empirically verified a fact here with all the proper formal hypothesizing, null hypothesizing, randomized sampling, and statistical verifications with reliable statistical packages with modeling processes, sampling processes presented explicitly and transparently? When? I just don’t recall you doing that. I don’t.
To reiterate as I so like to do, when folks appear to mischaracterize my hypotheses and opining as theories: I stick to appearances and opining, and speculation and hypotheses. I don’t claim to be a dispenser of the truth. I’m just having fun with the news and sports here. Cuz ah don’t want to mislead a soul, like some folks appear to do when they throw them fancy words like theory around without the same careful definitions I try to stick by.
But again, glad to hear from ya.
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@JayHawkFanToo said:
Tayshawn shot 0.382 from the 3 for the season and a slightly better 0.398 during conference.
Hey, goll, dang it, ain’t that practically what I done said?
Man, that is some good disputing of hairs split to a micron’s width, ain’t it?
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You still seeing things the way you wish they were rather than how they are.
Get back on your meds, go to you happy place and come back when you have regained a grasp of reality.
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Tyshawn’s only funk was his 3% during the 6 game Tourney run. His % was OK during the reg season.
Now it can be analyzed by those far better than me, about what the chances are for even a 2-3 game funk by someone who averaged 50% from 3 for an entire 30+ game regular season? I would think the chances are an order of magnitude or two less than someone who was 40% for the season. 50% from trey is insanely good, signifying good reproducible shot mechanics, form, etc. The modifier is if someone has some sort of injury like a hurt thumb, wrist, ribs, or bad foot/ankle (affecting the jump shot form). Frank has no such injury, as evidenced by his A-rated demolition of Brad Underwood’s very competent team.
Regardless of what fate has in store for FM3, I’m betting on him. Nice to have a player like him actually playing for us for a change…and this year we have 3 (DG and JJ also).
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“Get back on your meds, go to you happy place and come back when you have regained a grasp of reality.” –@JayHawkFanToo
Not feelin’ so happy today, eh?
Well, get your rest.
Its championship week a-startin’.
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@ralster said:
Tyshawn’s only funk was his 3% during the 6 game Tourney run.
Holy cow, don’t tell @JayHawkFanToo about that!!!
He don’t feel so good today and you know how he is about cogneeeeeeetiiiiive dissonance.
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@Crimsonorblue22 He’s close and thought he looked pretty good against OSU recently. Let’s hope he maintains and improved throughout the B12 tourney.
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True, true.
But here’s the thing about bad nights.
You shoot 51% from trey for season until March 5 without going through a 1-2 week shooting slump and you are the head of the body of a 28-3, er, 31-3 1 seed in the Carney, er, Tourney, well, I’m sayin’ that thuh odds of you slumping during the three two-game weekends of the Carney, er, the Tourney, like Tyshawn slumped after he shot so well for about the same stretch of a season, make me perspire more than a usual amount.
And when a beast of 31-3 team loses its head because of a slump, instead of from being beheaded by an opponent, well, the chances of an up set in one of those six games just has to spike.
I know, I know, other guys can step up and yatta yatta.
But the thing is we need those guys to step and yatta yatta even if Frank is doing his normal thing.
What happens if Frank goes into a slump in the Carney, er, Tourney, is that those other guys have step up a whole lot more, like, oh, I don’t know, but metaphorically speaking like maybe half again as much.
And then if some one happens to get a little nicked up and can’t step up and yatta yatta, well, then that means that the remainder of the team has to step up and yatta yatta maybe even 2/3s as much, or heck maybe even double.
Now that’s a whole heap of stepping’ up and yatta yattaing to have to come up with in a pinch, especially on a seven man team.
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Alright, alright, I feel bad now.
Okay, here’s what I want you to do.
Drink a glass of wine, light a candle, stair into the flame about 60 seconds, then repeat after me: "jaybate 1.0 says I am getting sleepy, deeper and deeper to sleep, waaaaaaay down. When I fall into a deep sleep jaybate 1.0 will whisper into my ear that ‘there is nothing to worry about, Frank will shoot 60% in the tournament.’ Then when you wake up from hearing @JayHawkFanToo screaming and cursing at learning that @ralster said Tyshawn only shot 3% from trey for six games in the 2012 Carney, er, Tourney, you will remember nothing except that Frank will shoot 60%!
There, that ought to do the trick.
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You have to start with @JayHawkFanToo by telling him something he desperately wants to hear; that sets him at ease; then he is a pussy cat.
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@jaybate-1.0 All this back and forth is due to you admitting you are worried about our prospects if FM goes into a shooting slump, and @JayHawkFanToo trying to explain why he thinks that worry is unfounded?
What if he does? Well, that particular fear is not among the many I have for the postseason. I worry about injuries, someone on another team having a monster night, and any team with both a 7 footer and a 6 ft 10 guy. I worry about missing too many free throws, technical fouls, and JJ staying out of foul trouble. I worry about overconfidence, media harrassment, and my DVR not working.
These range from major worries to minor anxieties. But a Frank multi-game slump? I think his game is versatile enough that if he shoots poorly he will score by driving. I think he gets his points. And if he doesn’t, if he gets an 0-fer, then it isn’t likely to be a multi-game slump–his next action will be at the NBA combine 'cuz we would likely be out.
But if I were you and @JayHawkFanToo, I wouldn’t be so worried about each other!
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OKAY, THAT’S COOL!
I will sit back and enjoy the ball and look forward to either Frank continuing on fire, or to Self and KU finding an ingenious way around it.
Ah, that was easy!!!
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Even go a step further… what if Frank gets in foul trouble? It did happen this year. Frank had to sit.
I think the key to our success in March (from the perimeter) is the “three amigos” strategy. Typically, one of these guys has somewhat of an off-night every game.
I think if Frank does have a bad game or foul trouble, the other two amigos will have his back. They better.
It is a lot easier to count on two players total results over one. It should give us more stability. And then if we are figuring averages from a group of 3, we really should have more predictable results.
Actually, we have 5 guards that are all capable of lighting it up. We could even see a game where our three amigos, as a group, are in a slump. That doesn’t mean we don’t get some production from Svi and Vick. Then it really does boil down to our defense shutting down our opponent.
Can we lose in March? Of course we can. I’m just making an argument that we have a very good overall team to deal with March this year. I like our “chances.”
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You are correct. As I mentioned before, Mason has had games when his shot was not falling but he was still able to control tempo, drive and score, dish assists and rebound; he is a multidimensional player and not a one trick pony and this is why he is the leading candidate for POY. Yes, he might have an off game when part of his game is not clicking but Senior Frank Mason has been so far the poster boy for consistency so, short of a sesssion ending injury, I am not worried about Mason going on a multi game slump.
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It appears the reduced apparent stacking the last two years at Duke (down from 9 OADs) and U.K. ( down from 10 OADs), has signaled a top down desire for more apparent parity.
Alas, the apparent seeding and whistle asymmetry have appeared to create their own appearance problems: a steady conspicuous flow of EST laden FFs and Champions, conspicuous late game calls, no calls and reviews appearing to favor Certain teams and time zones over others, claims by coaches (Hinson and Cronin) that the seeding is entertainment driven, etc.
Thus there seems to be a window for a loss leader, like KU, so to speak.
It appears the timing could be right for an apparent easing of apparent seeding and whistle asymmetry.
The seeding will tell us a lot about KU’s “chances”.
On a level playing field KU’s shooting, ball handling and experience should help their “chances.”
But our small size and minimal depth worry me against a UNC.
Still: if we see a KU bracket with a KU pathway less apparently asymmetrically obstructed than recent years, we should get optimistic and hope for a more favorable whistle too.
My guess is we will see KU and UA and UCLA get some seeding luv to try to increase the ODDS OF A NON EST WINNAH other than Zaga.
But UNC increasingly seems the team of destiny to me.
They’ve got the most talent hands down. MJ just announced his Jordan brand has re-upped with UNC. That could mean Easygate is over. Roy wants his reputation returned to him. A ring could smooth things over with MJ AND ROY AND UNC.
I think we could see two non EST TEAMS in the Finals–KU and UCLA or Zona.
But money talks and so UNC seems the WINNAH!
Still, it’s possible KU’s shooters could get hot and crowd into the winner’s circle.
Duke’s vaguely possible tension with UNC in a context of a Nike Jordan and Nike tension may have resolved, if it ever existed, because Coach K appears to have had a Jim Calhoun-like recovery. I half foresee a FF of UNC and Duke, since Nike Jordan-UNC and Nike-Duke seem to have worked out a mutually satisfactory living arrangement and two of KU, UA and UCLA. Lots of royalty. And the shoecos satisfactorily represented. And major time zones covered. And an appearance of more symmetry in east-west geography.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed for the Hawks in what might metaphorically appear somewhat paradoxically as a brokered Final Four with more apparent symmetry among basketball’s top 1 percent…
Complexity triggers the most amazing unexpected consequences sometimes.
But it’s all just speculation on appearances and nothing more.
Have to lace’em up, listen to the whistles, and see what happens regardless.
Rock Chalk!
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Precisely. That is why I gave an example WORSE than Frank being cold from the perimeter… foul trouble that would sit him down. We do need his control of the game, tempo, assists, leadership, driving, and rebounding…
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“But our small size and minimal depth worry me against a UNC.”
I hear you. It concerns me, too. But think back about times we had such a size advantage on other teams and it didn’t pay off?
This is a different year. Chuck out the loss of Doke, and we are in pretty good shape right now. I know Luke has sore thumb, and a few guys are tending to nicks but we are holding up well.
Bill has done a good job of saving his guys. It even feels like we “throttle down” in games. Not just to save legs but also fouls. I would rate our defensive performance at Stillwater as average… but look at what our guys had to endure? We never get a kind whistle in Stillwater and we were starting to get in some foul trouble by the end of the game. Had we played more aggressive, I’m afraid we would have lost some players.
It feels like our game is on an uptick, and I can think of many years when we weren’t on an uptick in March. We need to factor that in.
