Predicted Big 12 Standings

  • So I will try to do this every couple of weeks. The current standings first, with wins in parentheses:

    1. Kansas 3-0 (Baylor, Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech)
    2. West Virginia 3-0 (@ Kansas State, @ TCU, Oklahoma State)
    3. Oklahoma 2-1 (Iowa State, Kansas State)
    4. Baylor 2-1 (Oklahoma State, @ Iowa State)
    5. Iowa State 1-2 (Texas Tech)
    6. Texas Tech 1-2 (Texas)
    7. TCU 1-2 (Texas)
    8. Oklahoma State 1-2 (TCU)
    9. Texas 1-2 (Kansas State)
    10. Kansas State 0-3

    The predicted standings take who you have played (and where) into consideration. The conference is pretty clearly split into two halves - the top being KU, WVU, OU, ISU and Baylor. If you have hopes of moving up, you need to beat those teams when they come to your place. At the same time, you can also pick up wins by winning road games against the bottom half (Texas, KSU, Tech, TCU and OSU). For example, Iowa State is 5th right now, but they have not played TCU, K-State, Texas or Oklahoma State yet, so they have a chance to pick up quite a few wins. They also still get OU at Hilton. That weighs heavily in their favor. The home loss to Baylor hurts, but they have two top half games out of the way. On the other hand Texas already has losses to both TCU and Texas Tech. They haven’t seen OU, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia or Kansas. On top of that, Ridley is done for the year. It’s not looking good for the Horns this season.

    1. Kansas - the win against OU factors in heavily. They still have all of their tough road games left, starting tomorrow at WVU, but that Oklahoma win is huge right now.
    2. Oklahoma - Almost won at AFH. Own a home win against Iowa State. They do need to get a road win to solidify this spot, but I am weighing the loss in Lawrence pretty heavily, plus their talent level.
    3. Baylor - only loss is in Lawrence. Already went to Ames and got a W (only Big 12 team to win in Ames the last two years). They own the best road win in the conference right now.
    4. Iowa State - The loss to OU doesn’t hurt because it was in Norman. The home loss to Baylor does hurt. Need a big road win (Waco, Lawrence or Morgantown) to offset that loss
    5. West Virginia - 3-0, and with a couple of road wins, but have yet to play anyone in the top half of the conference. They can jump way up if they knock off Kansas tomorrow, though they will still lack a major road win.
    6. Texas Tech - They have one KU game and one Iowa State game already out of the way, so they can make up ground if they protect their home floor against the middle of the conference. Unfortunately, they only have three remaining chances to win a home game against the top half.
    7. Oklahoma State - Injuries are going to hurt them (the only reason I have them behind Tech), but they own a win over TCU and have already played WVU and Baylor on the road. If they can steal one from either of those teams at Gallagher Iba, they could move up to six.
    8. TCU - They have a home loss to WVU, which means they can’t hope to pick up a home win against one team in the top half of the conference. That pushes them down unless they can pull an upset in one of their remaining 4 chances.
    9. Texas - The situation isn’t good this year for the Horns. Too banged up. They haven’t dropped a home game yet, so they may move up quite a bit if they go on the road and beat a bottom half team. Unfortunately, they already dropped road games against the bottom half, so they have a ways to go.
    10. Kansas State - The other team in trouble here. They already dropped a top half home game (WVU), and lost on the road to a bottom half team (Texas). They haven’t played KU, Iowa State, Baylor yet. I don’t know where they are finding wins to get out of the cellar. If they don’t beat Tech tomorrow, it could get very dark in Manhattan.

  • Good analysis. I was looking at who the top teams are and comparing them for the tourney. Arizona, who many predicted to be in the Final Four has landed on hard times. Two loses this week during which they had dropped at # 7 and then we find out that their leading scorer has just broken his hand. They will continue to be good only if they emulate the Chiefs with their (Next Guy Up) philosophy.

    The strangest of strange in the Big 12 is that some of the Sports sites with Brackets have KSU and T Tech in the Tourney.

  • @wrwlumpy

    Injuries change everything. I had considered Arizona a contender, but the injuries have really dropped them to me. Their ceiling just lowered quite a bit.

  • @wrwlumpy great comparison!

  • @justanotherfan great job! One thing about ksu is that as bad as they seem to be, they find a way to beat some top teams, usually.

  • @justanotherfan

    Nice analysis. The only team I would change right now is putting West Virginia above Iowa St. 2 road victories and huge chance this week to put themselves on top. Although I disagree that they will get it done, there is a possibility that WVU could be on top going into these next few weeks.

    Tomm is important for so many reasons. Getting a signature road victory, continuing to shut up the rest of the conference. Plus the next 3 games after (TCU, @Oklahoma St, Texas) are soft, we could be 7-0 going into the crazy week of @ Iowa St, Kentucky, K-St.

    The way I look at it, KU won round 1 of 6 (3 game sets). Excluding the beat down we get to hand to UK in-between this next round is all about beating WVU. We need at least 1 signature road victory against the upper half to keep everyone else off our backs.

  • @justanotherfan

    I would put Texas and OSU at the bottom. I would also place West Virgina at 3, Baylor at 4 and ISU at 5.

    Best home wins of the season so far, KU over OU and KU over Baylor.

    Best road win of the season Baylor over ISU. The loss exposed ISU as a team with 4 very good starters and no bench and this is going to get worse as the season moves on and the starters get tired.

  • I put WVU down at 5 for a simple reason - schedule. If WVU was not 3-0 right now, how would you feel about them? If they had a loss to K-State, or TCU on the road, or at home against OSU, they would be down quite a ways.

    Put another way, if KU, ISU, OU, or Baylor had that schedule, what would you expect their record to be? 3-0. Heck, if Texas Tech had gotten that schedule, they might be 3-0 right now. I have Iowa State in front of WVU right now because I think their starters are better, but WVU could move in front based on what happens this week.

    I thought about putting Texas and OSU at the bottom, as @JayHawkFanToo suggested, but I can’t ignore the fact that KSU is winless and that KSU hasn’t played a very tough schedule yet. Like I said above, if K-State loses to Tech, their next five conference games are ISU, @ Baylor, Oklahoma State, @ West Virginia, @ Kansas. A loss to Tech basically makes them 1-8 or 0-9 halfway through the conference schedule. That would pretty much bury them. They have a must win game tomorrow because there is really no good path to recovery if they lose to Tech at home. That’s why I put them down.

    Texas has a tough slate ahead as well, but they haven’t lost at home yet, so they could still find some wins in Austin to move them up, same with OSU, who hasn’t lost at Gallagher Iba.

  • @justanotherfan

    I agree that ISU’s starters are better and WVU’s schedule is really soft. So you could be right that WVU’s hot start in conference play is all schedule related. Sometimes a quick 3-0 start gives teams confidence which WVU seems to have plenty with their comments about the game Tuesday. I guess where I thought WVU was better right now was the fact that they have won 2 road games regardless of opponent. Having won 2 games on the road already is an advantage currently but can all change tomm when KU comes in and beats them. I’m sure this discussion will continue to be a good one in a few more weeks.

  • @BeddieKU23

    You are correct. starting conference play with two road wins in this year’s conference is a big plus…any way you see it. losing at home to Baylor hurts ISU big time.

    KSU is the wild card, they play really well but they come just short. The lost a 2 OT game to WVU at home and a very close game on the road to Texas…both games could have easily gone the other way.

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