Hypothesis: some aliases mostly post after KU losses, or misfortune...hmmm
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@DoubleDD said:
as great as Coach has been in the regular season he has been just as bad in the tournament.
That is an exaggeration, but I see your point.
I have a partial explanation that I keep repeating, but no one seems to pick up on it.
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KU has the best home court advantage in sports.
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That means in more than half our games we have an advantage that translates to extra wins and higher seeds than we would otherwise have.
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So every year we go into the NCAA Tournament overrated (especially by us)!
Our home field advantage inflates our perception of our worth, and makes our recent NCAA history appear worse by comparison.
This doesn’t explain anything about Self’s performance, but partly explains our perception of his performance.
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That is a very good point. I’ll have to think about that one. Even now I’m like damn good point. Give me some time to think about that one. Yet even now I think you might have something.
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I believe Self’s average is actually nearer to the Elite 8 than most realize.
In 12 seasons at KU he has taken the Jayhawks to the Elite 8 or farther on 5 occasions.
Two title games, three elite 8 exits, 2 sweet 16 exits, 3 round of 32 exits and 2 first round exits.
You hit on a very good point…perception.
That perception …or expectation…entering each season for most of us is a final four… that is not realistic., so missed expectations at season’s end skew our perception of the actual success we did attain.
So when people view Self’s body of work, they fixate on the two 0-1 seasons and/or the three 1-1 seasons to gauge his performance…but lose site of the deeper runs. Since that deep run was the expectation to begin with, it was not noteworthy. But an early exit is noteworthy because that was not the expectation.
He has a .711 win percentage in the tournament with his KU teams.
Measure his performance vs his peers instead of against unrealistic expectations and his success is more evident
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@DoubleDD said:
@SoftballDad2011 and @jaybate-1.0
Yea Coach rocks it in the regular season nobody can deny. Yet in the tournament Coach is nothing but average.
That my friends is just a fact. Yet I get it. Winning conference championships is more important than winning national championships.
And for some reason according to you two? The measuring stick is MSU? Not sure why but ok I always thought KU was the standard, but after reading your posts it seems KU has to measure up to MSU?
I’ll go on record as saying MSU didn’t win that game but KU lost it because our coach didn’t play to his teams strengths. Not that it will matter to you two. As MSU seems to be the standard.
I understand your point.
And no, I am not satisfied solely with conference titles. But there is nothing average about a “bad” season that still included a conference title and invitation to the dance.
In regard to the measuring stick you say in one breath that we have been average in the tournament.
But in the next breath you chastise for using MSU as a measuring stick…stating that KU should be the standard.
Well…if you believe KU has been average when it matters most, then I would contend that Sparty isn’t a bad selection for use as a measuring stick…given that Izzo has seven final fours to his credit.
I personally believe Self’s post season success is a little better than average…one of just seven teams to play in 2 or more title games since 2004 (if you throw in Roy’s 2003 title game, we are tied for the most title game appearances since 2003).
But if that success is indeed average to you, then Izzo’s seven final fours isn’t a bad measuring stick, is it?
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@DoubleDD said:
“I mean ask yourself this question how many times has KU under Coach lost when they were the higher seed?”
@DoubleDD - Would you agree that the overall #1 seed rarely wins the tournament?
The great thing about facing KU in the first or second round as a lower seed is that you are already playing with house money…and you have already exceeded expectations. That allows them to play loose and gives them a lot of momentum if they are able to stay within striking distance until the final 5 minutes of the game. Which at the same time makes that bullseye on our back all the more burdensome.
WSU is a notable exception, but in my opinion they were a better team than their seed gave them credit for.
It is a game we should have won. But that opponent was not a typical round of 32 matchup for a 2 or 3 seed.
For the record, I agree with you that MSU didn’t beat us…we beat ourselves.
Our difference in thinking seems to stem from my acceptance that they did find a way to win a game that they should have lost…just like they did again this week against Louisville…and for that reason I have no problem in giving them their props for having done so.
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@ParisHawk You have raised a valid point regarding the home court advantage. With this in mind I wonder what Coach Self’s record would have been if he did not play most of his home games at AFH. Would he still be sitting at .821? And, how much of this advantage has helped with our Big 12 streak.
Another valid point is how much of this home court advantage hurting KU in the tournament? Our players get so much used to having crowd as the 6th man when games are on the line & somehow pull out a W. But when facing similar situations on neutral courts are they prepared mentally to pull it off. I don’t have an answer but I am wondering.
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Yeah but you build or maintain a home court advantage by winning. I know we all love Ku basketball and would go to any game and scream our heads off but the reality is most fans would not be as passionate about a team who disappoints at home.
I may be wrong but hasn’t Self only lost 5 home games vs big 12 opponents? In 12 years?! That’s insane. That has to be wrong, right? Please someone tell me that is not true!
You can say that is proof that he has an overwhelming advantage at home and you’d be right. But the question is would the advantage be as overwhelming if he lost multiple home games a year?
Fans are fickle. Just check Kaufman stadium to see how winning makes a home field advantage not necessarily the other way around.
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If you think Self is not up to the post season challenge, you must think Cal and K really suck! They have squandered double or triple the opportunities with way more talent!
You must loath IZZO! Not a single lousy during ring Self’s awesome run! IZZO hasn’t won a ring since 1999-2000!
You scorn Cal and Pitino! They have both been to the NIT!!!
And this is just a raw, unadjusted comparison with Self.
Imagine if we took into account the increasing asymmetry in seeding and refereeing that Self faces in post season that these other coaches you must find competent don’t have to deal with.
With their players, their seeding, and the refereeing they are getting apparently for the sake of eyeballs, betting and shoe sales, would Self ever NOT get to the FINAL FOUR? Would Self ever NOT WIN THREE RINGS OUT OF FOUR?!
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@jaybate-1.0 I’m attempting to ignore most of the negative comments as they come from the same few alias’s. You know who they are. I know something so assine will be posted that I have no choice, but to respond, but I’m trying not to. It’s already be discussed in length how Bill doesn’t coach the style that certain posters on here would like to see. But I don’t see any D1 programs beating down their doors. It’s also be discussed in length about post season success. Bill has had more tourney wins in the last 10 years than anyone.
For all who care: http://johngasaway.com/2014/11/06/seven-teams-account-for-25-percent-of-all-tournament-wins-since-2000/
High points:
NCAA tournament National wins since 2000 titles since 2000-
Kansas 38 1
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Michigan State 36 1
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Duke 34 2
North Carolina 34 2
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Florida 33 2
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Connecticut 32 3
Kentucky 32 1
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I know that’s more than the Self era, but it should put things in perspective. What do you have to complain about!?! Tis the season to be joyous!!! Quit your complaining and start singing the praise of these 'Hawks. If you can’t bask in their glory, go be a Yankees fan, 'cause that’s the only team winnin 25% of the National championships. Or be a Uconn women’s “basketball” fan…
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@ParisHawk Disagree. All great teams have great home court advantages, including Dook, UNC, Kentucky and the like. Hell, even the Clones have a great home court record. Unless you are Dook, and get to play 8 miles from your campus your first two games, everyone else is on the road in the tourney as well. No doubt we are dominant at home, but that doesn’t pump our record up any different than any other top team, imo.
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Just to add, these are tournament wins by team in Self era: Duke 28 UK 28 KU 27 Louisville 26 MSU 27 UNC 31
No one else is close that I could find. So if you want to argue for Roy, maybe. But any other team? Nah. Sorry I’m too lazy to figure out Cals wins separate from UK. He may have a few more since 2004.
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I will point out some obvious holes in this home court bias argument.
First, assume hypothetically that KU really is slightly better than other top teams. KU would win a higher percentage at home than UK or Duke, right?
Second, assume hypothetically that Self puts greater emphasis on winning conference titles than other top coaches, as so many allege here. Then KU would have a higher winning percentage at home over time, right?
Third, assume hypothetically that Self is more focused on overall winning percentage than on post season results, as some here allege. Then KU would have a higher winning percentage at home than the other top programs, right?
Fourth, assume hypothetically Self really is a better regular season coach than all the other top coaches but not as good in post season, as some allege here. Then KU would have a better home winning percentage, right?
I could go on, but the point is made.
These hypotheticals each posit plausible explanations for the higher winning percentage at home. They make as much sense as a building winning games, probably more, and I am among those that attribute some spiritual power to the place.
But here are the most plausible drivers of the phenomenon.
At different times in basketball history different buildings have housed different clusters of teams that gave that building the “highest home court winning percentage.” Pauley Pavillion after its first five years absolutely held such a distinction. Then UCLA stopped being so good and Pauley was not so invinceable. Indiana’s arena was the best in 1976 I suspect. Now it’s not so invinceable a pile of bricks. The Dean Dome? Man, could it out defend and out defend Allen Field House certain years! And so on.
Building winning percentages are the result of play, not the cause of it.
Players feel more at home at home. Players feel less secure away.
Refs favor home teams.
AFH contributes nothing. KU fans contribute something. But fans quit contributing when the winning stops. See?
A program that wins a lot can enhance the home edge. For periods it can seem invincible at home.But it’s a constellation of factors driven by winning plAyers, and quality of opposition and so on.
UCLA used to be invincible at home. What changed? Pauley? Or the coach, players and fans?
Finally, having the best home court advantage overall means nothing in isolation. The amount of incremental advantage is crucial. I haven’t looked, it’s probably small and it’s probably attributable variance at date of measure and the fact KU HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE LONG LIFE OF AFH, certainly the last 25 years.
I can remember when Ahearn Field House had a stretch under Winter, Fitzsimmons and Hartman where it was allegedly a tougher place to play and win than AFH.
It depends on what time series slice you take.
But if it were true that arenas create more than money advantages, well, then bully for us and let’s research design to make the advantage even bigger. I want to win more and more games and conference titles, because they get you the best seeds!
1.) The keys to Bill’s post season problems are:
2.) Not enough of the best players;
3.) Asymmetric seeding;
4.) Asymmetric officiating; and
5.) Bill.
The first four are huge in aggregate, but not much we can alter right now. They will take some time.
Bill has to keep getting better,which he can do and is good at doing. Wooden said it took them a long time to figure out how to win rings systematically, but when they did they got pretty good at it. Bill lucked into one early that Wooden did not. The early win may actually be impeding his learning. But he will get better and figure it out. But will he ever get the players K and Cal get
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@jaybate-1.0 BUT… BUT Self … Likes… (Im about to puke it so hard to say his accursed name)… TRAYLOR!!!
Self. Has. GOT. TO. GO. Period. End of story
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You don’t think I dream about coach getting the kind of talent that Duke and UK get? Oh yea, yes I do. I’m not Bill Self hater by any means… Yet it seems to be we KU fans are always making excuse come tournament time.
Reality KU and coach are not a Nike school or coach.
Reality KU doesn’t play in a great basketball conference (I don’t think that it’s that bad myself).
Reality KU has under achieved in the tournament.
Reality it’s time to put up or shut up
Yet none of this really matters to me right now. I only engaged you and @SoftballDad2011 as you two seemed to mock and pass off those who were questioning whether coach should still be coach as lunacy and lunatic’s. And @dylans thought of, well if you know so much why aren’t you coaching. Are you serious ???
To be honest after the MSU game I was hurt as a KU fan. Mad and sad as all be all. If felt worse than some of our early exits in the tournament. Yea I was questioning whether the game was passing Coach by. It doesn’t mean I’m a hater. I just care about MY JAYHAWKS.
Besides Coach has reinvented himself after that MSU game and has me believing again that this could be the year that Coach and KU bring home the trophy.
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Yea I would agree to a point that a #1 seed doesn’t always win the whole thing. Yet would you agree that a #1 seed should at the very least make it to the final 4?
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It is never an excuse to talk about factual obstacles standing between you and victory.
In war, if you ignore factual obstacles you die.
In sports, if you do the same, you keep losing.
Get Self the OAD point guard and post man and watch the rings come!
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PHOF
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Factual obstacles are one thing but making excuse is another. If the allied forces made excuses we’d all be speaking German.
Besides we are talking about KU here. It’s not like the roster doesn’t have some very fine players.
I too have wandered what Coach would do with a OAD point guard.
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Self is more himself than ever after MSU–always resilient and bouncing back and learning.
It is you who are changing and becoming like him.
That is the great good that can come from being a fan. We can learn from remarkable persons like Self.
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@DoubleDD That loss felt like someone had kicked me in the groin. I was furious…mainly because we looked just like we did when we lost last year. Yet, it was probably was the best thing that could’ve happened to us as a team. We’re not fat and happy - we’re lean and mean.
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@DoubleDD It might have been heading into the 2014 tourney, but as of then 18 of the last 25 title winners had been #1 seeds as I recall. i posted that back then. UConn was obviously not a #1 seed in 2014 but Duke was in 2015. So appx. 19 of last 27 title winners were #1 seeds. That 70%.
I don’t know what it is regarding the #1 “overall” seeds back that far. But in the 10 seasons preceding the 2015 tournament, the overall #1 seed had made it to 6 of the 10 final fours, winning 3 of them (Florida 2006; Kentucky 2012; Louisville 2013). Four other title winners in that same span were #1 seeds ( (North Carolina in 2005; Kansas in 2008; North Carolina in 2009; Duke in 2010). Duke won last season as a #1 seed, as we’ll, but wasn’t the overall #1.
So 7 of the last 11 tourneys won by #1 seeds, with 3 of those being overall #1 seeds.
It is definitely the easier path as a #1 and being the overall #1 is better than not (as 3 title winners were overall #1, and 4 other #1 winners came from the other three #1 seeds).
And “chalk”, obviously, is reaching the final four for any #1. Losing before the final four is an underachievement. It’s really only winning three games to get there as the first game is a gimme.
Just as information, Kansas in 2010 was the only #1 overall seed to lose in the first weekend in that 10+ season time period I referred to above. I got to spend the entire day with my daughter – driving to and from OK City vs. UNI in the snow. A 17 hour day when all was said and done. So that still made it a good day nonetheless.
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Thanks for fighting the good fight jaybate.
I am happy to have Bill Self as our coach. I do not understand who people would want to replace him with… Coach K and Calipari are not coming…Izzo is not coming. Do they want some unproven young guy? One loss and that guy might be lynched…
Be careful what you wish for. Here in Nebraska they canned a perennial 9 win a year football coach, because of similar sentiments about competing for titles, then had a historically bad year, were 5-7, and lost to PURDUE…Do not be so entitled. Be grateful Kansas is your team and you have an elite coach…
Coach Self may not be the best X’s and O’s coach, or the best recruiter, but he is good enough at both that he is in elite company…Only Coach K might beat him out factoring in both aspects…
Also, keep in mind the athletes are amateurs, I understand going after millionaire coaches, they deserve it. They are men, they are 40!! Let us lay off the kids a bit. If you ever played sports, you know sometimes you just lose. You get beat, it has nothing to do with lack of desire, or lack of preparation, or that you do not care. That is what is so appealing about sports, anything can happen…Only ONE TEAM in every sport wins the title. Should thousands of coaches be fired every year across all sports?.
When we lose, I get down, I cannot watch ESPN for days…I kind of go on a media embargo until the next game…I get it, you are passionate fans. No reason to be internet tough guys about it. IF you are going to spout ignorant nonsense, go on a media embargo yourself…
Me, I do not quite trust Selden yet, but I root for him because he is our guy…Why trample on these kids.
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I would agree that they probably should.
But in the history of the current format all four #1 seeds have only made it to the final four in the same season only once.
So while they probably should, it is highly unusual for them to do all do it.
Yes,you are correct… I think it is absolute lunacy for anyone to suggest that Coach Self should be fired.
And all I have done is support my case for why I feel that way…just as those who feel otherwise have done.
It is not personal and I haven’t attacked anyone. , it is just a discussion which is the intent of the board. .
And by your own admission it sounds though you don’t feel that way any longer anyway.
And no, I know nothing about coaching basketball.
Do have a lot of experience in administration though.
And I know you don’t run off a coach because he is to stubborn to listen to fans on message boards and do what they want him to do.
Especially when he wins at a level that is in the top 5 percentile of his current peers.
I believe Bill Self is one of the top three or four coaches in the college game right now. And I want to keep him on our bench.
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I’m hopeful. You don’t have to be a coach or an expert on the game of basketball to see that coach was being stubborn in how he wanted to run his offense. I’m hopeful because it seems Coach is reinventing himself, and running an offense that focuses on the three, thereby playing to the strength of his team. Losing is part of life, Yet how we lose is what we should focus on. Like why Coach underperforms in the tournament.
Yet it seems by some we can’t have that conversation, because we as KU fans are never to question King Self. And if we do we are lunatics.
I too want Coach on the bench, but I also don’t want to wait another 20 years for a championship either.
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If I were head coach and ultimately accountable for all facets of my program, I would be incredibly stubborn as well.
He has a system that he believes in and it works 82% of the time. And he relies upon it.
It’s his bat, his ball and his rules.
If he starts losing consistently or looses control of his team then yes let’s send him packing.
Until then he gets to do it his way.
We can cuss it. Discuss it. And say what if.
I just don’t think it appropriate to start calling for his head, given his history of excellence.
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@SoftballDad2011 Self has the magical formula …500 wins + age 52 = MAGIC. In his prime…
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I agree with you and posted pretty much the same thing a few days ago. All elite programs have a big advantage playing at home…this is why it is called home court advantage.
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If you don’t think KU play in a great conference, please tell me which conference do you consider great? Which conference has sent a higher percentage of teams to the NCAA than the Big 12, say in the last 3 years? Which conference sent 70% of its team or 60% of its team like the Big 12 did in the past two seasons? Which conference has 30% of its teams ranked in the top 6 or 50% in the top 25 on the current poll like the Big 12 does?
I know it is fashionable by the East Coast press to call the ACC or the Big 10 as the top conferences but the numbers and final conference season rankings in the last few years indicate the Big 12 is from top to bottom the top conference.
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@JayHawkFanToo I think when you take the performance of B12 in the tournament, definitely not up to par.
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The Big 12 is from top to bottom the best conference but only KU and maybe 1 or 2 other team are consistently national contenders. Other conferences such as the ACC have 3 or 4 good teams but the rest suck.
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@JayHawkFanToo Don’t disagree…guess that comes down to how you value success.
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@JayHawkFanToo KU is the only Big12 team to even get to the final four since Texas (I think) a decade ago. Sure, there are a lot of solid teams in the league, but we’re the only elite team, and heck, even our last three years, I might not (gasp, cough, choke, gag) call us elite either. ISU has been very close to helping make our league more relevant nationally, they probably get to the final four two years ago when Niang got hurt, but that’s been it.
The BIg1G and ACC are the best leagues in the country in my opinion, but that doesn’t matter because KU doesn’t play for a league, they play for a name brand, which is high, and elite, and major. It’s a name that needs no other explanation nationally when it comes to college hoops. When I tell people I went to KU they mention hoops. That’s what they know about our school, heck it’s what I know about our school.
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Good call.
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I post more when I have nothing else better to do.
I guess that EXPOSES me!
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“You don’t think I dream about coach getting the kind of talent that Duke and UK get? Oh yea, yes I do.”
I don’t want the talent they get.
If you have 9 friggin’ McDs AAs on your roster and you can win a NC… in my book… you are the laughing stock of the universe!
If we load up like that, then we better win it all…
What pisses me off is that we don’t develop players like we should.
It has taken Perry 4 years to start using a shot fake. That makes our program look bad.
Few of our guys know how to seal off for a rebound. That makes our program look bad.
Worse… we lose to teams with a lot less talent because of all of this. I find it disrespectful… to the university, to the fans, to the game. For players to not even focus on the very basics of the game, blows my mind.
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@wissoxfan83
Question: Since the Big 12 has only 10 teams what do you think the score would be if the top 5 teams and bottom 5 teams in the Big 10 or the ACC play against the corresponding top 5 and bottom 5 teams in the Big 12? I believe the Big 12 wins both series.
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@JayHawkFanToo I think it’s even with the Big1G but the ACC is pretty weak at the bottom and so the Big12 would win that. At the top, Interesting to speculate, but the Big1G just won the ACC challenge for the 7th time since 2008 or something like that. At the top, it’s a toss up.
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@drgnslayr My dad and I have been discussing this for a while now. Why is it that there are so many fundamental skills that the guys are lacking? I mean my middle school team knew how to block out on rebounds and our coach constantly reminded us to do so. Like I said in an earlier thread, I think all of this comes down to coaching.
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@wissoxfan83
As per ESPN these are the top teams for the Big 10 and the top 5 Big 12 team they would face…
Michigan State 9-0 – KU
Purdue 8-0 – ISU
Maryland 7-1 – OU
Northwestern 7-1 — WVU
Iowa 6-2 - Baylor
I personally believe that worst case the Big 12 goes 3-2 and can go 4-1.
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@JayHawkFanToo OK fine, you win.
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Harvard showed a team with solid awareness. They played well. Still not quite moving the ball or making decisions like we need to be. Also, we didn’t rebound or box out well.
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@wissoxfan83
What exactly do I win? It is not a contest, it is just a sports forum friendly discussion, right?
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To be fair I did say I thought the Big 12 was pretty good. The Big 12 gets no love as it doesn’t do very well in the tournament.
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@DoubleDD how about we beat each other up? No?
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right back at you!
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You’ll have to clarify? I’m interested.
