ISU Wrap: The Four Out/One In Magic
-
@icthawkfan316 I’m not so sure Svi is gone. There just isn’t room for minutes right now. Greene is finally playing well enough to get off 2 to 5 threes a game which is basically 6-15 points of instant offense. It would be interesting to see if Svi could take some minutes at the 4 but being so young (aka not strong) that seems unlikely. But with the 4 out 1 in he is just as tall as Traylor or Ellis. Defensive would be the problem which is what this all really boils down to. He’s not going to out hustle Jamari. He can’t defend like Oubre or Selden or Graham. He can’t shoot as well as Greene. His handles aren’t as strong as Graham. He can’t rebound as well as Perry. There just isn’t room on this deep of a team for him to get minutes.
Self had a quote saying he looked down his bench and saw 8 starters. I don’t know that I’ve ever heard him say anything like that in the passed. He’s talked about not having a drop off. Or finishing games matters more than starting them. 2008 was certainly close with Sherron and Kaun coming off the bench and Sherron usually in at the end. But even that year was really a 7 man rotation with the occasional 8th man being Little or Cole. This team is really deep. So when can we get Frank some REST!?!?!
Probably never. He’s too important to sit.
-
@benshawks08 First off, it was Roderick Stewart. Little wasn’t on the '08 team. But you are right, it was primarily a 7 man rotation.
To your point about Svi, I think you’re making my point for me. I’m in full agreement that this team is too deep for him to get minutes. That’s not exactly a rock solid argument for him to stick around. Quite the contrary. And my point was does he want to stay another year and in all probability only move into the rotation as the 5th perimeter player (or 8th man as Roderick Stewart was in '08)? And that’s assuming Self doesn’t recruit some stud wing player that could potentially force him to the end of the bench again.
I’m not saying I’m sure he’s gone. I just think the writing may be on the wall.
-
I am with you on WVU. Our guys really don’t know Huggo Muggo style smash mouth. Izzo and MSU are the closest approximation, but they play half court and Huggie is taking smash mouth full court. Huggie is borrowing from Nolan Richardson who took Okie Ball full court and added some aggression.
Huggie is taking his own half court maul-ball and mugging and tugging in transition. It is very smart. And he has the right guys to do it with.
As usual, he is short of shooters and scorers. But 40 Minutes of Mugging will expose Frank’s limits by forcing him into unexpected distribution choices, which remains his weakness from last season. Self has hidden this by playing half court and de-emphasisizing Frank’s penetrate and dish plays in tall traffic. We mostly see Frank going to iron only in the four corners without congestion inside. This minimizes the unexpected for Frank. But Huggie will try to create 90 feet of unexpected choices for him.
Also, board rats are in denial about Devonte’s vulnerability to being sped up and roughed up, which showed versus the ISU press. This not a knock on Devonte. He is green wood and doing marvelously, but he has not yet been schemed against as he is about to be by Huggie. Huggie will put Devonte down in transition hard and speed him up. The end to end thugging will be hard for him not to want to take off dribbling outside the flow.
Huggie is going all 90 feet of x-axis. It will be new for our guys and WVU is the biggest risk to my win out prediction.
Other things equal, we should split with WVU.
But the Jarhead Jayhawks can build leads with the trey, and muddy things up. And repeat. The keys will be boarding and protecting. If we wash on those stats, we win both places with superior shooters and scorers. Lose our composure from intimidation and we can lose both places.
Courage, aggression and poise in transition.
Also, we will have to put one or two of their guys down early.
This is the first meeting with Huggie when he really has the tools to play HUGGO MUGGO ball with us since WVU has joined the B12. Like Self he went finesse last season. He had some shooters and the officiating chilled him. The gloves are off this year.
-
@icthawkfan316 Actually Stewart was 9th man and didn’t really play - except when Rush was rehabbing from his torn ACL and Stewart started several games! He went from basically unused to starting to being unused again - then injured himself the day before our FF game against UCN. He celebrated our Championship on crutches…
-
@ParisHawk Yes I remember. I was sad for him.
And it’s an either/or as to if he was the 8th or 9th. By the end of the season, Cole was probably the 8th. I prefer to break it down to perimeter vs. bigs. Stewart was the 5th perimeter player, while Cole was the 4th big.
-
@icthawkfan316 Oops! My bad on the Stewart/Little mix up! Not sure where my head was at. The only way I see a possible transfer or Svi going back home is the situation you brought up of Self landing another elite wing freshman. He is too talented and Self has talked so much about his upside and potential. Svi has a lot more to offer than Stewart did in 2008. With Kelly gone we would need Svi’s size and length at the 3. It’s still possible for him to even compete for a starting job next year. While Greene is playing well now, there is no guarantee that Self doesn’t get fed up with his ever tangled feet on D. We have to remember that Svi is seventeen (is he still?). He has so much room for growth I just don’t see Self letting him go.
-
My “gentle” counterpostulate to this 4 out, 1 in idea, is that foul trouble on bigs may have allowed this mix of personnel to then do what they’re strengths are (drive & kick, & shooting). We resemble recent yrs’ Duke squads, but with a little better Self spice, and athletic talent.
Story of the game was our ‘inflexible’ coach conceding O rbds, just to get back on D. Self’s obsession with disrupting the opponent’s O paid off here. He realized ISU’s “magic” was to manufacture high% FGs or FTs with transition runouts. Self knew that ISU labors in their halfcourt sets, as they always do, and should shoot worse from deep on the road than they do in Hilton. He was correct. He also knew our D is the best its been in 2yrs, even improving since that game in Ames 2 wks ago…just get the boys in position to actually use it. And our depth.
See also most of our 3s were open-look 3s, as Hoiberg was trying do the Stanford-D of packing the paint, which is of course a good way to defend Self’s hi-lo (without a 7ftr or a burlybig like Black).
I would further point out that Self has always allowed open-look-3s. Those were the 3s that Sherron went 0-6 vs. UNI, and Reed 1-7 vs VCU. And in both games, ku didnt get back on D. So, we got back on D, disrupted ISU mightily, and hit shots in our own gym.
The games against WVa will be tougher…
-
@benshawks08 I hope you’re right. I’m very high on Svi and his ceiling. I definitely don’t see Self “letting him go”.
And you’re right also in that he could compete with Greene for the starting role next year. But two things: 1) Greene’s defense has vastly improved. He’s not great, but he’s more than competent now as opposed to last season and even early this season. And 2) Svi himself looked lost on defense earlier this season. In particular, it was his inability to handle ball screens that eventually forced him to the bench and paved the way for Oubre to ascend to the starting role. So Svi will have to improve his own defense before he can overtake Greene. Can he do improve enough in practice alone while Greene sees court time, plus get Hudy-ized in the off-season? Perhaps.
Regardless, I would be happy with next year’s perimeter if we don’t land anybody and we keep Svi.
-
Me too. Imagine if Greene gets in shape to play big minutes. If he takes 5 threes a game? And if Svi can turn it on like some have hinted he could that would be a very solid perimeter with Selden, Graham, and Mason. Doesn’t mean I won’t be happy if we land another blue chipper! Imagine how much tougher practices are this year with such a deep bench than last year with all those freshman!
-
The thing about WVU’s press is that if you break it successfully our chances of scoring immediately off a lob dunk or layup are pretty high. That was something K-St wasn’t athletic enough to take advantage of. But from my vantage point Ellis/Traylor/Cliff could get a handful of easy dunks of it. From just watching that game I saw a press that was predicated on the opponent helping them out. K-St gave them 10 or so turnovers without them even trying hard. If our guys are poised, and have an understanding of how to beat it then I’m confident we can expose them. But if we employ the tactics we showed last night then we are in trouble. That’s why practice leading up to the game will be key, even with the short turnaround from the Baylor game. I kind of expect us to struggle in Morgantown with it and then have a similar adjustment game at home. If we walk out of Morgantown with a win its hard to imagine KU not winning the league from that point on.
The other key is defensively stopping Staten. He’s a one man band out there for them and his quickness is simply not matched. Mason and Graham can be jets but Staten is just a blur out there. He will put a lot of pressure on them and it will be key for them guys to stay out of foul trouble because he’s an expert actor.
-
I’m also going to tune into the Oklahoma WVU game tonight to see how affective they are against a good team with good guard play which we have. Will be the only time I’m rooting for the Sooners.
-
@globaljaybird
And a danged FOS, but appreciated compliment, too.
(added subsequently) I am curious what wax on wax off refers to in the post below. @JayHawkFanToo. It sounds like a reference to something Mr.Miyagi said, is that correct?
-
Wax on, wax off…wax on, wax off…remember how Mr. Miyagi taught Daniel-san not only about the basics of Karate but also about personal balance?
I believe Coach Self has taken his time teaching his team not only the basics of all the different styles of offense and defense but more importantly, has allowed them to find out for themselves what he they do best and what they don’t, and now the team is putting all the pieces together and playing to its strengths and the competition weaknesses.
KU has now put together 3 really good games (UT, KSU and ISU), and one (TCU) that perhaps they were hoping they could use to rest players and became closer than it needed to be. KU is now in firm control of the conference and players are headed towards their anticipated potentials. There is no question that all the rotation players are playing considerably better now than they were 10-15 games earlier.
Mason is starting to show signs of fatigue and I am sure Coach Self wishes he could give him some additional rest, but as well as Davonte has played, he is not quite ready to take over the position for extended periods of time and he is still at his best when playing with Mason. Also, opposing defenses are a lot more aware of Mason’s scoring capabilities and are planning accordingly, something he did not see in the earlier part of the season when Ellis was the one constantly being double teamed. The tough conference competition should help not only KU but all conference teams in the post season.
-
Apology to Landon Lucas;
Mr, Lucas a few games back I mentioned that I never saw worse hands in my life. I was agitated at the time but felt like a replay of the tape would justify my comments. Well in the games since I’ve noticed those hands are working just fine. Sorry about that hasty judgement!
Seriously though, Landon may not be the stud super talented big man but talk about somebody that with very limited floor experience is coming in and giving valuable minutes. His D is improving, he’s drawing fouls, spacing the floor nicely, and when given the chance scoring. His improvement is largely overshadowed by others and he still has a ways to go to be a rotation player. But it is sure nice to see we have someone that won’t hurt the team when the situation call for it. Particularly when like last night Cliff just seemed out of sorts and Jamari had periods of time he could not get out of his own way.
-
@jaybate-1.0 I’ve noticed the last 3 games, BG doesn’t like to get roughed up, more than anyone else in the team.
-
@icthawkfan316 when both teams went out at half, they all looked really tired. I thought the 2nd half frank was much stronger, finished those 3 free throws, as opposed to TCU game, when he was really tired, and was short. They all need to spend some extra time on throws!!
-
@Jyhwk_InTigrtwn I agree! Lucas plays hard, got some key boards. I have a hard time w/McKay!
-
Good discussion everyone.
I was glad to see Self make the adjustment of having guys get back on defense to stop ISU when they try to run. Kind of a novel idea, I suppose.
And once again, Self has them start out in the stagnant inside-out, but eventually switches to outside-in. As we have discussed before, playing outside-in is the only way they have a chance at a final four and challenging UK.
-
That image you posted of Cliff and the fellow with the radiating braids is amazing. I would vote it an award winner. Was it taken by you, or a professional? If you took it, perhaps you should become a professional, if you’re not. If a professional took it other than you, you should probably ask @approxinfinity, or @bskeet about how to handle attributions of images like that, to ensure copyright compliance. Just a thought. @wrwlumpy might also know the rules, since he posts so many images. Regardless, its a remarkable image. Rock Chalk!
@drgnslayr, that too is a striking image of MLK? Any idea where that was was taken? I don’t recall it.
-
-
@jaybate-1.0 saw it on twitter, I’m not a professional!!
-
“Apology to Landon Lucas”
Landen may not be a super stud 5-star recruit… but he has height and he has pretty good fundamentals. Of our bigs, he is the only one that really knows how to set up in the low post. I wish he had stronger low post finishes… but… he is still improving his game.
He is a bit inconsistent… but he is an option off the bench, and in some games he is our BEST option! Since he does know how set up in the low post, in certain match ups he can dominate in the low paint. That isn’t going to be in every game…
Part of his inconsistency is on defense. Sometimes I think that is the rust from not getting enough real game action. He is our best post player at sealing off the boards, too.
He is definitely an important part of our depth!
-
Really nice win for the good guys. Very glad to see Wayne get untracked offensively. We’re simply a better team than the Clones, and we should’ve won in Ames. I am predicting OU beats the Hillbillies tonight, leaving us 2 games ahead in the standings, with the biggest trap game of the year in Stillwater ( Eskimo Joes ) on Saturday.Hope the guys don’t read the press clippings …we have half a season left. RCJHGKU.
-
OU better win…Pomeroy still has them ranked as the top Big 12 team and ahead of KU. I just don’t get how he can justify this ranking when they lost 4 of 5 conference games in January including a head to head with KU, and since then, they have won only against bottom feeders TTU and OSU and stand 5-4 and tied for 4th place with KSU and 3 full games behind KU in the conference standings.
-
There looms another serious factor in the Svi Saga. Military turmoil at home. His family might be comfortable with his staying in the USA for an extended spell, perhaps even a 3rd year in Lawrence if his stardom is late arriving and NBA draft boards appear not to guarantee early professional security with First Round selection. As previously posted on this thread, he is currently caught in a numbers game with more experienced players who have proved more advanced mastery at various skillsets important to Bill Self Hoops. Obviously, Svi is a powderkeg awaiting the sizzling fuse. I hope he stays with the program. However, like Wiggins, his talent and potential might be better designed to fit NBA Basketball.
-
@JayHawkFanToo Real good point about Devonte. I saw some freshmen mistakes this last game i haven’t seen from Devonte, so not sure he is 100% ready to run the team w/o Frank just yet. He’s close, but still has a ways to go. Of course, one could say Wayne looked like a high school sophomore the first part of the game- I was cussing him, praising him, cussing him, and then the praises took over with every shot. I wonder if Wayne is related to Tyshawn.
A thought struck me watching the team last night - we’re going to have Frank, Devonte, Wayne, Perry, Jamari, Cliff!??, Landen, Svi, Hunter??? and the 2016 national player of the year ( Mr Greene ) BACK next year. Add in Bragg, and another big or two, and we’re stronger than horseradish …WITH experience. So, we’re a OAD team with loads of rugged veterans at every position. National championship either this year, or next year…OR BOTH YEARS.
-
@JayHawkFanToo Go back and listen to Kenwrong’s interview with Jesse- Kenwrong is an old bullshitter, a used car salesman stuck in college basketball, selling his weird science hocus pocus to all gullible enough to buy in. I’ve heard better pitches from door to door vacuum cleaner salesmen.
-
I think the problem with Kenpom’s rankings are they are purely statistical. And always with statistics there are outliers. From what I have read from Jesse and Kenpom, he never claims his system is perfect. I don’t think he believes that Oklahoma is currently the best team in the Big 12. His rankings focus mostly on Points per Possession. So if you have a lot of blow outs those will have a great effect on those statistics. OU has a few against some bottom feeders which KU didn’t stomp. There is definitely some weird mumbo jumbo in there especially with the idea that close games come down to “luck.” But mostly I find Kenpom to be a database of statistics arranged in a way that people can access them to learn more about their team or someone else’s. Jesse has been pretty on target with his score predictions this year basing most of the information on stats from Kenpom. I have read enough Jesse to have a pretty good inclination that he is not a stupid guy. The stats are to be used and analyzed, not taken as truths about who is best.
-
The problem with Pomeroy rankings is that they do not reflect reality well. All computer models use basically the same information with their own unique twists in an attempt to create a model that closely reflects/predicts reality…this is the ultimate test of any model. When a reasonably unbiased person looks at the results and thinks…this does not look right…then the model is flawed. This is not to say that all computer models are good or bad, simply that some are better at predicting the perception of the general population.
In this regard Pomeroy is not that different than snobish movie critics that tell us a movie is a “masterpiece” when most viewers think is garbage; of course they claim that viewers lack the “sophistication and culture” to appreciate it, but we know that if looks like a turd, smells like turd and floats like turd…it is a turd, and no review is going to change that. Pomeroy uses his own snobish approach to tell us we really do not understand his genius and we are not smart enough to understand what he is doing.
There are a number of computer models and by and large they all have somewhat similar results; however, Pomeroy’s model seems to be at odds with most of the other models. If you take an average of all the models, Pomeroy would be considered an outlier.
-
Bill Self deserves major credit. Once again proving why he is the right coach for this job. He has done a masterful job with this year’s group.
-
@HighEliteMajor I was fooled the first 9 min of the game. It really looked like outside in to me cuz they had sets with 4out 1 in. I am still learning the multifacets of the game. It was great to watch though! I also noted in my post that the 16 turnovers didnt even register to me! 3 point shooting was killer and our drive and kickouts were making that happen. Great game. I dvrd it for future use
-
@Lulufulu Wasn’t able to reply yesterday. For the first 9 minutes plus, they were in their standard high-low. Watch how the top guy, most of the time Traylor, would go out top and screen, and many times to the wing for a screen. Ellis was in that spot too. The “high” does a lot of screening. In the ISU game, lots of the screening was on the ball. The high will also slide down to the opposite low block many times on a post feed. From the high spot, Ellis can get three point looks. in possession 6, Ellis was high, kicked out and got a three from the high post.
This is much different than what we saw after Traylor left with two fouls at 10:19. Ellis came in, 4 in, 1 out.
I have mentioned how our base high-low offense is adaptable to a three point game. It’s as simple as focusing screens away from the ball, or setting digging your perimeter game in a little tighter so ball screens can create looks near the three point line.
But back to the regular offense.
In the possessions 4, 9 and 11, the high (Traylor in 4; Ellis in 9 and 11), the high goes to screen the wing. In each instance this is setting up a little two man game. The low post moves to the opposite block. In possession 4, Selden dumps to Traylor and Traylor commits a charge. In possession 9, Ellis screens for Mason, who shoots and misses. In 11, Ellis screens for Selden who drives and turns it over. These possessions show some of our classic high-low attack.
In the first 9 minutes, we had 9 points. Two of those points were Oubre’s dunk in the second possession on a run out, and two points were on an inbounds play to Oubre in the third possession. We scored two baskets from our our offense in 9 minutes.The standard offense failed miserably.
The best moment was at 11:55. Cliff high, Ellis low. Ball far side wing feeds Ellis on the block. He spins and guys collapse on him. He dishes to Cliff for an easy lay in. On possession 14, Ellis had a nice runner for a basket. That was it from the offense.
This is a great game to keep on the DVR because you can really see and contrast both attacks. From an effectiveness standpoint, there is no comparison.
-
@Kubie Landen. Not like Lando Calrisian.
-
@HighEliteMajor IMO Self is playing cat n mouse with opposing defenses maybe like has been referenced by jb & others as rope a dope. He’s far less inclined to do it on D, but is possibly making adjustments to get in the heads of opponents. Clearly the hi lo barely works this year but it can limit possessions. Face it, Bill hasn’t achieved all his success with rocks in his head. I think he’s making the right adjustments at the right times this year-something he did not seem to do in March the last 2 years. So far, so good as his team seems to respond well when he calls an uptempo 4 & 1. Teams that give me jitters are the ones with players names ending in"ski" Kaminski, Tarczewski, don’t recall the kid from Gonzaga, but you follow my drift. Teams with major height…like UK. JMO
-
Along the same train of thought-imagine how tuff UT could be if they could use Turner & Ridley & Holmes how Norm & Self would school those guys? What a waste of a OAD if in fact he is. JMO
-
@HighEliteMajor Thanks! Im definitely going to watch that game again anyways and now I’ll have a bit more to focus on.
-
@globaljaybird
I think there is a lot going on here. I do think Self played rope a dope with ISU. The OU game was a big wakeup on how this young team can flip flop.
Self wants consistency.
He’d rather have two good halves, than a great half and a bad half. I think we need to keep that idea in our heads. The OU game was a disaster, and we are very very fortunate to have won that game.
Self knows how hard it is to force momentum on to his guys. It is easier to throttle them back and let them release energy gradually (consistently) over having them come out amped, then run low and in trouble, then refocus to finish strong. Granted, the last way builds character, but Self isn’t interested in building character in AFH. Self is interested in protecting home turf. Now on the road is a different story (concerning character)… but for a team this young, you don’t want to bite off too much character building in one game. It’s best to control what he can control. The character building will come through the season regardless.
