Why KU is more impressive than Virginia or UK (Link)
Kubie last edited by KUSTEVE
I like the way they think, other than the fact UK kicked our rear soundly.
Jyhwk_InTigrtwn last edited by
wow, hire that guy for our PR dept!
justanotherfan last edited by
I’m not quite clear on how a team that has been blown out twice is more impressive than the last two undefeated teams in the country, especially since one of those teams blew them out.
I appreciate the love, but the premise is a little ridiculous. If the situation were reversed (i.e. we had hammered UK and were undefeated) and someone was claimed that UK was more impressive, we would be sharpening pitchforks and lighting torches, talking about how crazy that was and how that writer has a bias.
I just can’t understand how we are more impressive than the two teams that have, to this point, demonstrated that they are the best two teams in the country.
nuleafjhawk last edited by
I have a problem with the whole RPI thing - to me it’s basically useless. I think we had one of the very highest RPI last season - when we had a Bill Self record tying 10 losses.
Kubie last edited by
The RPI is a tool to measure the capability of a team. However it is only one of many such tools and I think those that take it seriously on it’s own have a flawed view of the world.
A more balanced approach is needed. I consider W/L, RPI, and a Ouija Board to determine my picks.
The loss at UK is what in statistics is called an outlier, a result that is far away from the norm when the entire picture is considered. You have to consider that when KU played UK, it had only played 1 Division I opponent and 2 exhibition games, while UK had 7 games against National Teams from other countries and European professional teams plus 3 exhibition games. If the teams were to play again, UK might still win but it would not be a blowout like the last game. All the computer models take this factor into account and assign less weight to early games and more weight to games as the season progresses. Also, Kentucky’s schedule is considerably easier than KU’s so it does not help UK which is the only SEC team n the top 25. The Big 12, on the other hand, has at least 6 teams in the top 25.
DoubleDD Banned last edited by
It’s a point that most don’t take into consideration.
wissoxfan83 last edited by
@JayHawkFanToo So is the Temple game an outlier too? Most of what you wrote is excuse making. We got stomped, and another month later got stomped in even more embarrassing fashion at Temple. If it all leads to a FF finish or better, well, I’ll buy the outlier theory. But if it leads to another first weekend finish, well, then it was an omen of what was to come.
drgnslayr last edited by
I’m curious if any of the computer models adjust for outliers? Does anyone know?
@Jesse-Newell … this is a question for you.
HawkInMizery last edited by
@Kubie Well played, I got a pretty good chuckle out of the Ouija Board comment.
JhawkAlum last edited by
Geez, I believe @JayHawkFanToo was just describing why the RPI ranked us above UK. He might have thrown in a little Jayhawk bias but there is nothing wrong with that on a KU board. I want to talk about KSU tomorrow rather than UK two months ago, but if you don’t think KU would put up a fight if they played them again, then I feel sorry with your outlook on this season. Even if we were playing the undefeated 1973 UCLA Bruins, I would think we had a good shot if we pull Walton away from the basketball, doubled him in the post, and roughed up Wilkes. There is nothing wrong with @JayHawkFanToo and his outlook!
jaybate 1.0 last edited by jaybate 1.0
There is one other minor contributing factor for the UK blow out of KU.
KU reputed OAD/TADs = 3
UK reputed OAD/TADs = 10
Kip_McSmithers last edited by Kip_McSmithers
-2013-14 UK reputed OAD/TADs = 7-8
-2013-14 UConn reputed OAD/TADs= 0
Lulufulu last edited by
@JhawkAlum If we played UK in a TRUE neutral sight later this season where there was equal amounts of KU colors and UK colors, I think we would have an excellent chance against them.
If you know statistics you would know that both of those games are clearly outliers, where an outlier is defined as an observation that lies outside the overall pattern of a distribution. Here is a quick and dirty graph that show the margin of victory loss for all KU games, You will notice that the average margin is 7.5 points when you look at all the games (including UK and Temple). I have also plotted lines with 1 and 2 Standard Deviation (15.4) and both, the UK and Temple game fall outside the 2 standard deviation line. Actually a line with the difference between the predicted and actual margins would be better as you would see a fairly flat distribution with a couple of huge outliers.
Yes, most models give less weight to older and more weight to more recent games and, if I recall correctly, games prior to the 20 more recent games have a lot less weight, which mean the UK game will start counting less and less as time goes by.
Crimsonorblue22 last edited by Crimsonorblue22
@Kip_McSmithers who did they have for the NIT?