Evaluating Perry Ellis apples to apples or something like that?
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I have been working on refining my formula for a few hours now to figure out a logical way to predict talent progression year to year for specific players. What I found is that when comparing apples to apples Chandler Parsons is a crab apple and Perry Ellis is a Peasgood’s Nonesuch apple (the largest apple normally weighing about a pound). Yes what I am saying is that Chandler Parsons is a poor mans Perry Ellis. I went out and gathered information using ESPN’s top 100 again to find guys that played the same position as Ellis, were the same height, and approximately the same build and weight. I also have been looking at other recruiting boards and NBA evaluations.
Perry Ellis 9th positionally ranked PF, 35th overall on the ESPN top 100. 6’8" 220 lbs 4 star graded a 96 Sophomore Stats 27.8mpg 13.5ppg 6.7rpg
Chandler Parsons 9th positionally ranked PF, 44th overall on the ESPN top 100. 6’8" 220 lbs 4 star graded a 96 Junior Stats 31.0min 12.4ppg 6.9rbg
Okaro White 10th positionally ranked PF, 36th overall on the ESPN top 100 6’8" 180 lbs 4 star graded a 95 Junior Stats 30.1mpg 13.6ppg 6.8rpg
What I found is that Ellis’s Sophomore numbers are better than these NBA’ers Junior season numbers (if there are any scouts on this page you should up his draft stock). Now I am going to have to start looking into fitness trainers and their effect on developing talent more rapidly. Thomas Robinson was the perfect example of a big that was coached up and went from late 1st/ 2nd round draft pick to high lotto. Ben McLemore is another example. So was it his strength and conditioning trainers or coaches? Has Ellis reached his ceiling or is he going to bring his game to another level? Now I need to go look at Bmac and Trob and place put them against their peers to figure out the KU bump for my formula. Any ways I am still working away and thought I would update you all on my progress and PLEASE chime in and let me know if there is something you think could be relative to my research/formula. Thanks
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Great work! I love this stuff. Also thanks for posting stuff all summer. You gave me something new to read seems like everyday.
The only things I can think of that might be relative to your research is to look at the past players and how much they improved year to year. Perry’s number are better as sophomore than theirs as juniors. However, if we knew what kind of jump they made from sophomore to juniors, we might know if Perry has hit his ceiling or what kind of jump to expect from him. The other thing is what percentage of their teams offense did they account for. Scoring 13 points on 8 shots is a big difference than 13 points on 15 shots, or 20 etc.
Also it would be cool to see if you can predict the numbers and how relevant guys like Landon and Hunter will be in the future. Maybe by looking at others who redshirted or transferred in. I don’t know that may be tough, but if anyone can do it, the Statmachine can!
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Really nice work!
Has Perry suffered any injuries as a Jayhawk? I don’t think so. Consider many past and present Jayhawks and how they have been hindered through injuries. I think Wayne hurt his stats big time this year because of his injury.
It seems that most Jayhawks that stay healthy see a huge improvement in play over their years in Lawrence.
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I would toss in my kudos on this, too. I always like to see an improvement from Sophomore year to Junior year of 50% the improvement from Freshman to Sophomore – meaning I think that should be expected. It’s why I’m really excited about Traylor, though he does have a redshirt year to mess up that analysis. If Ellis isn’t better this season, he won’t play in the NBA. If he can’t guard a 4, I question his NBA future anyway,
By the way, I’m watching Texas/UCLA football, and Gus Johnson is pure energy as an announcer. The NCAA tourney is a lesser event without that dude calling an upset or two.
