Without Elite 5s and Elite Point Guards, KU Is Probably Doing as Well as It Can
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@Crimsonorblue22 I certainly think Embid would have made a difference in the Stanford game, but I’m not sure how much further we would have gone. The team didn’t mesh well, and, as you note, we lacked good guard play, which is critical in the tournament.
But, your injuries point raises another issue - were we just a bit unlucky with injuries the past couple of years, or is something else at work? This year, at least, it seemed like all our guys were at least a bit nicked up, esp. at the end of the year. Certainly, no one seemed fresh. Part of it might be that we weren’t using our pretty deep bench enough (IMHO, Hunter and Svi should have been getting consistent 8-12 minutes pg), but many teams have short rotations. Maybe it was the grind of the B12 season? Maybe the conditioning approach? Or, maybe just anomalous?
Injuries are a part of the game, and you have to learn to live with or work around them. Worth noting that Wisconsin was without their starting senior PG most of the year - including the last part of the season - but is still going to the E8.
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Svi showed us some real flashes this year, especially in his ball handling and his overall instincts. I’d be careful not to get in the “fashionable-to-bash-Selden”, as that kid could have his light-bulb moment literally any day now, as could Svi, as obviously I think 5star Svi is almost like a savant-type of uber talent. Imagine him after Huditioning, and just plain old mother nature (age) maturation.
Part of Selden’s offensive inconsistency was him deferring to teammates, clearly trying to involve everybody, and also “trying hard” defensively. But, here’s a kid, McD-level talent, who’d showed enough over time to earn such a ranking…but most definitely in the Rush, Sherron, Arthur, Cliff, Cole type list of McDs who aren’t OAD-good, but do get better every year. Selden saved our butt in a couple of games this year, but hasn’t learned to be closer to that ceiling most of the time (consistency). I sincerely think Selden needs to let his inner alpha show. He definitely has it. Maybe he is trying to balance with Mason, who most definitely is a clear alpha.
So I credit Selden for trying to be part of the team. But he needs to improve his consistency of production, as his team needs that from him also. The time is now.
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@BeddieKU23 and @ralster I don’t think any of them were projected OADs coming in (Arthur maybe a TAD) and none were elite as freshman. They became “elite” college players and could execute the H/L only with experience. And, none are really elite talents, i.e., NBA all-star level, although Kief might end up making a couple of all-star teams. That’s been my point about trying to go after the elite bigs out of HS - Cliff supposedly was one. How many of those guys can really contribute out of the box, esp. in Self’s system - maybe 3-4 a year. And, if we get one, and they leave, can we replicate that the next year? Sure, I would love to get Diallo in addition to Bragg. But, does anyone believe they are going to have the back-to-the-basket skill set in year 1 to execute the high low??? So, Lucas at the 5 while they develop? I’m sorry, but while he battles and can give you some solid minutes, he really can’t execute in the H/L - doesn’t have much of an offensive game, has weak hands, has no hops and lacks quickness. He is a back-up.
The PGs weren’t elite coming in, although Mario was fairly highly rated. Sheron was clearly the earliest to develop - was a significant rotation contributor from his first year.
I love Mason and what he brings to the table and I would give him a B+/A-, esp. relative to everyone else, but he is far from an elite PG at this point. Not saying he can’t get there. But, he was scoring guard in HS and he just doesn’t have PG instincts. While he can get by his man, score reasonably well off the glass, and with occasional floaters, he doesn’t dish or distribute effectively when penetrating - he is on a mission. Simply put, he doesn’t, at this point, make it easier for him teammates to score; make others around him better. You really see it on 2 or 3 on 1 breakaways - he usually just takes it all the way himself.
I’m really high on Devonte. I think he showed the most well-rounded game as a guard on both sides of the ball as anyone since Sheron. Yes, he made his share of freshman mistakes, but he’s got some swagger and IMO the highest BBall IQ on the team (along with Svi). I think he will continue to get better. Selden is another matter. I’m afraid he has peaked - hope I’m wrong, but he is what he is. He has no handle at all, absolutely no left hand. Doesn’t have much court awareness. As @beddieKU23 notes, just straight line drives in the paint. I would start both Mason and Graham in the backcourt (with DG as the 1) and have Selden split time at the 3 and 4 (depending on size and matches of other teams).
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@ralster So, I was typing my other reply and missed this one. I hope you are right and I am wrong about Selden - nothing would make me happier. He seems like a good kid and great teammate. But he didn’t just not progress this year, he actually regressed. His numbers were similar to last year’s, but he had more TOs and was much more inconsistent. And, last year, he was clearly deferring to Wigs, Embid, and Ellis. He was expected to be the alpha this year, along with Perry. But, after watching him for a two years now, I’m not sure he has the full complement of skills sets to take it to the next level.
You are right, there were 7-8 games this year where he really stepped up and arguably carried us. But, there were 28-29 games where he was a non-factor or worse. You mentioned defense and I didn’t in the above post. I don’t think he is a good defender, but another poster on another thread dissected his issues on the defensive end much better than me.
Again, I hope he proves me wrong.
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@DCHawker Great discussion! I’m just really curious to see a lot of our returnees become juniors and seniors, which was an underpinning to a lot of past Self team’s success and toughness. And let’s see what lessened amt of roster turnover does for us. I can hope Cliff and Oubre come back, purely selfishly for the above “experience” reasons…but I’m not holding my breath. I’m actually a little worried for Cliff, where exactly is he going to go? He clearly is not lotto material at this stage, and has a lot to learn about “real” post play at the next level.
Good observations on Selden (they are calling him “Seldom” over on the other site), and we all saw that. My angle is purely a hopeful one, and hope the consistency-thing shows up (finally) for him as a junior.
These guys could really gel in the summer Korea tournament, and just plain ole “get better”. Knowing about Cliff will help, as putting a 6’8, pissed off, 240lb, MichState-style banger in the paint, which Cliff could easily become, would be good for all parties.
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I’ve watched a fair bit of Bragg & Diallo. Saw a lot of their higher profile games. The answer to your question on their day 1 skill sets in the high low. Neither is probably the ideal answer. They are both going to have to learn the nuances of the system and I’m just grouping Diallo into the fold for conversation purposes.
Bragg really could have a game that mimics Perry Ellis. He is bigger and longer and more athletic so he’s a welcome addition. His shooting touch is what gives him an edge to give us points. I think he will be solid his first year and he might even surprise because he’s not regarded as a 1 and done. Like a lot of Freshman he will have to learn full effort all the time but offensively he will be an upgrade instantly to Traylor & Mickelson.
Diallo is a unique talent. Relentless worker, put-backs, weak-side blocking, rebounding, running the floor these are all things that he excels at. Sometimes he showed a post game and shooting touch but he’s clearly a post that will take time to learn moves. Day 1 you won’t have to teach him effort, he reminds me of having a junkyard dog type game until he learns how to impact the game on Iso situations. I’m okay with that and he’s highly rated because his impact on the game is immense.
I’m intrigued by the transfer from Charlotte for his shear size and his production was good enough to think he could do some good things for KU. He would give Self the ideal big man to use with Lucas.
We shouldn’t write off Lucas improving a ton just yet. He did get a lot better over the year and his last 8 games avg’d 6pts 7rbs 1blk. He could benefit the most from Korea and hopefully another summer with Hudy making him more explosive and athletic. A lot of times I think Lucas was afraid to mess up so he was rarely an option to score when he got the ball. Sometimes he’d get a rebound or post position and not know how to utilize it even though he was 2 feet from the basket. He was frustrating at times but his effort was never lacking. Self loves that kid and I’m sure he will be given every chance to start if we don’t luck out this spring.
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@ralster Agree. While I would be thrilled to have us a snag a real shooting star (literally and figuratively) every now and then, I would prefer to see us build traditional veteran Self teams with much better than average, even if not truly elite, that defend and don’t quit. That formula yielded a string of 30+ win seasons and I NC and 1 runner-up. Miss those days - seems like we’ve gotten away from it more recently…
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@BeddieKU23 Great insight on Bragg and Diallo! Thanks. Seems like everyone and their grandmother is after the Charlotte big. Have no doubt Landon will work hard and continue to improve. Just don’t think he has the size, quickness and skills (fundamentals are solid) to really be effective down low and take the pressure off Perry.
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I think this is Self’s prime year to make us forget about losing Danny and Dooley. Especially with Landon every-time we don’t have the post production people say its because of those guys leaving. That could all be true because Danny taught his guys the little things that a great learns over the years. Landon can be a double double candidate but its going to take teaching him post seals, and moves to make him successful.
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@jaybate-1.0 @truehawk93 Thats what Im sayin! They are totally restructuring their strategy to be more competitive with Nike in college ball. At least thats my opinion.
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@jaybate-1.0 Great topic and conversation … I was slammed all week with work and just couldn’t take part. Just read all of the posts. Terrific thread. This is a real off-season discussion. We (me) need to move on now and look forward. How can Kansas better next season? This entire thread has gotten me thinking …
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@ralster “Pretty Eyes Selden” wow.
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Hit that Boss Button and take the baton!
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@jaybate-1.0 just read this Diamond stone picked Maryland
It certainly doesn’t hurt that Stone’s AAU team, Young Legends, is an UnderArmour program. The University of Maryland is a flagship program for the brand’s basketball gear. The other three finalists for Stone’s services were Wisconsin (adidas), Oklahoma State (Nike) and Connecticut (Nike).
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I think part of DG finishing strong had to do with Frank taking him under his wing. You learn from good players quicker and Graham certainly has talent. Mason didn’t have that luxury with Tharpe and Mason was that wild child that needed taming last year. DG could be more of that Russell Robinson type with an offensive game as well.
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Surprised I thought he was going to Wisconsin to take Kaminsky’s spot. Turgeon has improved the Maryland brand and the move to the Big 10 certainly helped them so far. Maryland will be a good team with both Trimble & Layman expected to return.
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@BeddieKU23 sounds like quite a few were surprised, sounds like wiscy has been on him a long time.
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@BeddieKU23 Trimble is returning?
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They were but they were also the hometown school. Uconn was also close with him but if this Under Armour thing is really true that’s signficant. BTW Brown & Ingram played AAU for Addidas affiliates. Diallo, Zimmerman, Newman Nike. Will be interesting to see how it shakes
that’s the word right now. i’m sure an official announcement will be made but that’s what I’ve read. Coach seems to think he’s returning but what do coaches know!
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Ivan Rabb is announcing today, March 28, or maybe as early as today.
Many think he’s staying in the Bay area. He’s choosing California?
Good for him and California. Anywhere but uk.
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@HighEliteMajor You know what I would really like to see on here is some teaching posts from the board rats with coaching and or playing experience.
I have learned quite a bit about the game just from reading what you all post on here and watching the game over and over. Id like to learn more, retain more, but Im such a visual learner. Id almost have to go out there and play the game. But thats not going to happen anytime soon.
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I hope we get Thon Maker, even if he does have eligibility issues. He will give us what Embiid didn’t get a chance to give us, assuming he makes it to the tourney. And by the way, I still believe it was a mistake for Embiid to leave early. 7’ savants are lottery picks WHENEVER they decide to go, EVEN if they are injured. There are time-sensitive advantages to staying in college and maturing emotionally and physically before committing yourself to the NBA grind, which by the way, is a BORING life.
We are ok for two of our starting guards, but we need good backups. Newman and Brown would make fine additions to our backcourt and would get plenty of playing time. Assuming Oubre is gone, a Mason/Graham, Newman/Brown backcourt with Svi, Bragg and Greene fighting for time at the three. I could see Bragg and Greene spending quite some time at the 4 as well. Perry, Jamari and Landon should all be fighting for their spot with the likes of Bragg, Diallo and (if the stars align) Thon Maker. We should be recruiting over all of our players. No free passes. Selden, Jamari, Landen and Hunter should see minimal time unless they drastically improve. For all of those folks who are anti-OAD, it has everything to do with basketball skills. Would you rather have a 3/4 year player that does not develop year-over-year or a younger player that ALREADY HAS those skills. If some of the worst passers on your team are 3rd year players, that’s an indication that it’s time to bring in some serious competition at the same position.
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Rest assured–Self is recruiting over every single one.
And after watching Zaga’s 4 big lugs he has Norm on a plane to Eastern Europe NOW!
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@betterfireE i think most of us understand the OAD talent deal. The issue which is really no question is that Coach Self has less success with OADs and more success with teams in which hes had time to develop the talent into experienced upper classmen. Im all in on signing 9 double McDAs…but not if they are gonna sit behind Traylor, Lucas, and Greene for half the season after getting a quick hook for botching the help defense on a ball screen or not hedging. Or heaven forbid. Missing a 3 pointer
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@cragarhawk All of these guys seem to be pretty decent defensively. They may not start right away, but they’ll all be in the rotation in March. The dribbling skills from many of these players is impressive. Glad that we snagged Bragg. He will make a great impact at the 3 and 4 positions. Maker is the key though. And yes, I think Maker should stay in college for a few years. He’s one of those players that will always be a lottery pick no matter what. If he doesn’t fill out, I could see him playing a Durant-like role in the NBA. Might as well take your time to develop if the disadvantages of leaving are small. People underestimate what a college program gives you. Yes, I think that they should be paid, but Thon Maker will get paid eventually without question. At KU, he’d have the chance to make some friends for life while having enough time and space to learn and develop his mind. Speaking of which… he needs to improve his eligibility. So developing his mind should be his main focus for the next 2-4 years regardless.
P.S. - I’m actually of the opinion that Oubre might be able to stay with minimal consequences as well. He’s 6’7"/6’8", but he has freakish wingspan. Honestly, I think he may come close to Wiggins as a prospect. No he doesn’t have the jumping ability that Wiggins has, but he may develop into a better player. He’s great at stealing the ball and is fairly crafty. Yes, his dribbling needs work, but he’s a lefty, which is promising for his potential to be more ambidextrous.
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@betterfireE As it relates to Oubre, you’ve hit on the main point about potential and when to declare. Yes, Oubre could improve by staying. But the NBA drafts on potential. There is always the question…does a player develop better by playing a year in college or by practicing for a year in the NBA…I don’t have the answer to that question. I’m sure the experts do. But conventional wisdom says that if you are guaranteed to go in the lottery, and maybe even if you are guaranteed to go in the 1st round…you go. If the projections hold true and KO is a lottery pick…if he were my son, I would tell him to take the guaranteed money…no question.
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The point is that the money is guaranteed anyway. However, a big counterpoint is that by playing a few years less, they would be missing out on total potential earnings.
On the other hand, despite everyone (including my own) grumbling about Self and Co.'s handling of injured players, they are still treated much, much more delicately than they are in the NBA. 80+ games plus constant travel wears on a body and mind. Developing both before the league is the better way for long-term fulfillment.
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Totally agree.
Kelly is a very frail guy, as ball players go today in college and pros.
There is every reason to believe that he would get punked next season with what we have coming back, plus Bragg, unless Self signs some very ominous enforcer types.
They punched Andrew Wiggins in the face several times last season.
They broke Embiid’s back, or something close to it.
They punched Perry’s nose out the back of his head and he is way stronger and more solid that Kelly.
Kelly is a great talent, very courageous, and a pretty player who has come along about 25 years too late for his slight physique.
He needs to jump immediately, get the guarantied money, and spend all his spare time bulking up playing back up minutes until he does.
The best thing for him would be to develop a 40% trey and never have to play another second at the 3. At the 3, until he bulks up, he is a punking waiting to happen. At the 2, he could dish it out instead. But you’ve got to shoot the trey better than he does to play the 2 in the pros.
