Is Selden a OAD?
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I’m really just throwing this out there for discussion as I don’t have any great insights on this. I keep hearing Wayne’s name thrown out there as a likely candidate to leave after this season. I don’t know - he’s been very good at times, especially for a true Freshman. And I know the whole draft on potential thing - he seems to have the body of a prototypical NBA guard. But the 2014 NBA Draft is going to be the deepest draft in the last ten years and I just personally haven’t seen enough to make me think he’s a likely OAD candidiate. Don’t get me wrong - I love him and his game. He seems to be a very solid person with a good head on his shoulders. It’s still early enough in the season that a lot could change. But as things stand now, I really think he’ll be here next year. (Also why I don’t want JaQuan Lyle.) Maybe just wishful thinking… What do you think?
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Here’s what I would say to a possible OAD:
- Are you a lock for #1? Just go
- Are you a possible #1 pick? Go, unless you are Embiid (who is the closest thing to a 2015 #1 lock there is)
- Are you an absolute lock for the lottery? You have to think seriously about going.
If you’re not a lock for the lottery, stay a year, especially this year with the strongest draft in a decade.
Right now, Selden is not a lock for the lottery.
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agreed ParisHawk. I think Wayne will come on later in the season - I expect him to have a big big12. He is a kid who has done nothing but make the right choices for himself from a young age. Very mature beyond his years. I think we’ll see him again next year assuming his big 12 isn’t TOO big.
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Coach Self has always advised players that were potential lottery picks to go; way too much money at stake. I just don’t see him changing that.
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I tend to think this will come down to the wire. Wayne is a big body and a great athlete but so far I certainly have not seen anything from him that will make him a lock as a lottery pick. If he has a fantastic Big 12 then things could change but as of today I would assume he is coming back as he would not be a “for sure” in the lottery. Embiid is gone. We can stop dreaming about that right now.
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@JayHawkFanToo You are probably right, although I’m not sure he advised the Morris twins or Darrel Arthur to go. I think sure lottery picks he shoves out the door, but just potential lottery picks?
This is such a strong year for the draft, there would be more upside to waiting if the lottery were just a maybe, IMO of course.
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If he stays:
Tharpe, Selden, Oubre, Ellis, Alexander
If he goes:
Tharpe, ???, Oubre, Ellis, Alexander
Who starts at the 2 next season if Selden declares?
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@KirkIsMyHinrich Greene.
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At the 2?
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It would change the look of the team, but Frankamp isn’t ready and White just seems a step slow. My opinion is ever evolving so ask me next at the end of the year, and again next October, and again in November.
I think Greene has the potential to energize a team. His energy when properly harnessed will turn him into a great all around baller. (Auto correct thinks that should read ballerina
) He’s long and a good outside shooter, but not much of a slasher/ball handler.Mason will get minutes too, unless Tharpe goes pro.
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Who starts at the 2 next season if Selden declares?
I could see Frankamp at the 2. Or we could continue to see Mason and Tharpe out there together. Maybe Greene. Knowing Self it’ll be whoever is the best defender at that point and time.
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Tharpe going pro is a little tongue in cheek.
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Conner Frankamp only has one issue and that is moving without the ball. Frankamp was an excellent scorer in high school. He was able to freelance in high school. Now he must learn how to move the ball within the system. My only advice would be to watch some video of Reggie Miller. I still believe he is an excellent player and his time will come.
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If Selden stays he’ll obviously start at the 2 guard. If not, I don’t think Mason and Tharpe will start together, because that would leave very little ball handling coming off the bench, and also not a lot of outside shooting in the starting lineup. Greene and White can shoot but aren’t great ball handlers and seem a little slow for the position. Frankamp might be the best option of the current players to start at 2 next season because he can shoot and he’s a pretty good ball handler. But he’s not very big or very athletic, and he’s not a good defender.
If KU gets JaQuan Lyle I think he’ll probably start at the 2 next season (if Selden leaves). Not necessarily because I think he’s better than Frankamp, Greene, or White, but because he fits the position better. He’s 6’4/6’5, he can dribble, he’s a great passer, he can shoot 3’s off the catch or off the dribble, he can drive to the basket, and he’s pretty athletic.
That leaves Mason free to run the back up point. That also means Greene, White, and Frankamp would have to fight for minutes for the 5th guard spot and we might see a transfer.
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If Selden is reading this, and we all know Coach Self requires his players to read KUBuckets, I recommend staying. I always do. You can’t replace the college experience. You can’t replace playing 30 minutes a night before 16300 adoring fans who will cheer most every move. You’ll be coached by a man who is ready to move to the next level if he so desires. If you don’t stay, you risk becoming the next Josh Selby. Would you rather be the star at KU who has an iffy pro career or the OAD at KU who isn’t a star and then is mediocre in the NBA?
Of course he could become a star in the NBA but the reason this post is even written is because deep down we don’t see Wayne as being remotely ready for the NBA. A year ago we didn’t write is BMac ready? We aren’t writing that about Joel or Andrew, because we know they are. So trust us Wayne, stick around, you won’t regret it.
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As mentioned above, the conventional wisdom is that if you are a sure lottery pick you need to go. Guarantee to be picked later in the first round is not quite so clear cut. Some guys might not get better by staying. Wayne, if not guaranteed to go in the lottery, would be one that, I believe, would get better and should probably stay. Whether he goes or stays could be determined by only a few games, say, in the NCAA tournament. Way too early to tell. If I had to place a bet right now, I would say he stays. 1) The draft is very deep this year. 2)With so much balance on our team, and with Perry, Andrew, and Joel being the go-to guys, Wayne may not stand out at the end of the season the way he might on another team. I would say Greene and Oubre start on the wing next year if Wayne leaves.
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Love this topic cuz I’ve been thinking of it since the first game. Wayne is good, but he doesn’t seem to stand out in any one area (yet). Love to see him stay.
As for Greene, he stood out to me in warmups in boulder. I’ll prolly regret saying this, but he reminded me of Scottie pippen. Long and he can run and we all know he can shoot it. I honestly think he may be top 20 pick after next year or the next…
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The coaching staff prepares a report for every player with a chance of getting drafted. The twins and Arthur we projected to be lottery picks. A rumor about an alleged health condition just before the draft seriously damaged Arthur’s stock in the draft, otherwise he would likely have been a lottery pick. Chalmers was projected to be a mid to late first round but fell to the second round and was the steal of the draft.
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@JayHawkFanToo thanks, but in that case why all the talk about Coach Self being “surprised” the twins declared for the draft?
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If Selden’s 3PT% > 40%, then maybe, else no.
Selden has to play as well as Ben Mac.
Playing as well as Travis won’t cut it.
He is not as productive as either so far.
Therefore Selden turning pro is very unlikely.
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@ParisHawk At the beginning of the year Self didn’t think the Morrii would be winning the lottery so he didn’t recruit Morrii replacements. Morrii came on very late and by that time all of the frosh impact’ers were committed to others. That left us with B. Anderson and Jamari. Maybe someone can correct me if I’m wrong but the only “bigs” we were after that year was Chol and DeAndre Daniels.
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At this point Selden isn’t ready for the league, but the NBA drafts on potiential. Selden could get drafted in the first round. Wayne is in the top 12-20 on the draft boards I’ve seen.
That said, I think it would be a mistake for Selden to go pro after this season unless he make major strides by the years end. I’d hate to see him buried on a bench in the league, just to make the same money he could’ve after being a God in Lawrence for 2-3 years.
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thanks, but in that case why all the talk about Coach Self being “surprised” the twins declared for the draft?
I don’t recall Coach Self being surprised; maybe you can provide a link. A few weeks before the draft he said - I would not be surprised if both leave for the NBA and I would not be surprised if they both come back - or words to that effect. As the draft drew near and their position in the draft became more clear, there was no doubt they would both be gone. They were both lottery picks by the way.
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JB, Agree that if Selden continues to play the way he has, it is unlikely he will leave. However, all it takes is a few games at the end of the season of playing to another level to potentially vault him into the lottery, or at least close.
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@JayDocMD Im doubting very seriously that Selden is a OAD. Unless he has the maturity level and ego of Josh Selby, I really think he sticks around another year at KU to develop into a sure fire lottery pick. That’s just my gut feeling.
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@ParisHawk Embiid by seasons end could be as feasible of a #1 pick as anyone in the draft coming up
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@JayDocMD Another question for you all. What IF Embiid has a good head on his shoulders too and wants to develop more at KU before declaring? It really could happen. The kid seems to have his head on straight, especially with his father being an officer in the military of his country. But, its also just as likely he goes #1 this year.
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Selden. No. Wiggins. Thought was yes but no. Embid. Thought no way now heck yes. Marcus Smart did the right thing and stayed. Now he will get drafted lower and not have to play for a crappy team. The money will be there with the possibility of playing with a better franchise is a long term win for him
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@JayHawkFanToo has it right. If you are a lottery pick, staying doesn’t make much sense because there is too much money at stake, and too much risk that an injury or other circumstance could knock you out of the lottery by the “next big thing.”
Marcus Smart made a good personal decision last year to stay in school. He did that even though he understood that financially, it may not have been his best decision. Last year, he goes no lower than 5th. This season, he may be on the board at 8 or 9.
Mitch McGary stayed even though he was a lottery pick. Now, depending on how his back surgery goes, he may not even be a first rounder. The decision to stay one year may end up being two for him and, depending on whether the back is fully healthy, could cost him eight figures by the time everything is said and done.
As for Selden, right now I think he is a mid to late first rounder. I can see all of the pieces there to make a very good NBA 2 guard. Unfortunately, he has not consistently put those pieces together for full games. Wayne has a tendency to make one or two plays a game that make me say, yeah, that guy is an NBA talent, then disappear for the rest of the night. But if you are an NBA scout, you have to look at the fact that he has the ability to do NBA level things moreso than the consistency. A guy like Releford last year was consistent, but he couldn’t do NBA level things. I think Travis will carve out a nice career in Europe and maybe have a chance to get a couple of 10 day deals in the NBA, but Selden has the talent to be a rotation level player, maybe even a starter/ fringe all star type (depending on the development of his perimeter shot). So I would say that right now, as it stands, Selden is still a OAD, but his status is the most unclear of any of the freshmen, as Wiggins and Embiid are absolutely gone and Greene, Frankamp and Mason are all staying.
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Staying one extra year in college has its advantages as far as developing mentally and physically. As far as training, the NBA has better position coaches and the player can dedicate all of his time to improving his skills without worrying about school work. Lottery picks that fail usually do it because of mental and/or physical immaturity, not enough dedication, and more often than not, being miss-drafted based on perceived potential rather that proven ability; some just happened to be drafted by the wrong team at the wrong time, i.e. Xavier Henry, and their development is seriously hampered, but again like Henry, it can be re-started elsewhere, provided the talent is there.
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The mental aspect is something that is hard to measure. If the question is simply maturity, another year in college is a huge benefit. But it could be something else. Some guys just can’t adjust to not being the best player on the floor anymore.
Let’s take Xavier Henry because he’s a really good example. He seems like a smart guy. Seems to work hard and keep himself in shape. Stays out of trouble. That would seem to be someone that would be successful in the NBA. The question you can’t answer, though, is how will he handle being the seventh or eighth best player on his team? I can guarantee you that before he got to the NBA, Xavier Henry was probably never worse than the third best player on his own team at any point after the fourth grade. That means from probably 5th grade through his freshman year in college (almost 10 years), Xavier Henry was a star, and most of the time he was the star. He is not a star in the NBA. Probably never will be. He will be a very good player in the NBA, a rotation guy (provided he stays healthy), but probably never a star. For some guys, that is just too tough an adjustment.
Look at Adam Morrison. Another guy that was intelligent, hard worker, etc. But it was just too difficult for him to not be a guy that consistently had the ball in his hands as a primary scorer. Kobe Bryant himself said that Adam Morrison was good enough to play in the NBA. But can a guy make that transition from being the guy to being a guy? You never really know until the transition is made (or not).
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The problem with Xavier Henry was not that he could not handle not being the best player; he was not the best player or the second best or even third best at KU and he did just fine. The problem he had was being drafted by the Grizzlies who refused to pay the bonus all lottery picks get and then, his agent and father managed to have him not play in the summer league, the one place where rookies are evaluated and earn playing time; further, an injury ended what was left of hi initial season and he was never able to get in sync with management and coaching personnel. New Orleans was much of the same and he was released at the end of his contract. He was fortunate that he Lakers picked him up and now he is finally showing the potential we saw flashes of during his short stay at KU. He might not be a superstar but he seems to be in a path to a solid NBA career.
If anything, Henry has been a level headed athlete that has stayed put of trouble and has returned often to Lawrence, has been proud and loyal Jayhawk and a good representative of the program.
