Baylor: 2 similar Fool's Gold Teams going at it
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In case the Coaching staff is reading. I just did some numbers crunching to compare the 2 teams. I found that the 2 teams are very similar in their 3 Pt game.
Players----3 PT (%)----% of Team’s 3PT Attempts
Prince 39.8%—21.7%
Chery 38.4%—20.0%
O’Neale 42.3%—16.6%
Medford 38.9%—21.0%
31.6% of Shot Attempts are from 3 PT.
Average Team 3 PT Shooting % is 37.1%
Players—3 PT (%)—% of Team’s 3PT Attempts
Mason 44.1%—16.7%
Selden 43.0%—24.6%
Oubre 35.4%—16.0%
Greene 52.3%—16.0%
30.1% of Shot Attempts are from 3 PT.
Average Team 3 PT Shooting % is 40.9%.
So, if we have an ON day for trey, we win. If we have an OFF day for trey, they win. Maybe that was the reason for HCBS to talk up Inside Out after TTU.
My wish: 1st Play of the game is for everyone to set Ellis up for a Trey. Ellis makes it (that would be his 1,000). HCBS calls a Time Out. AFH goes crazy. Team amps up. Greene fires from all over the place during the game and we torch the Bears! RCJH!
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Defense disrupts Baylor trey shooting. That’s the other side of facing a Self-coached team. And our D is up to prior sub-40% FG marks held by previous years’ competent D teams. I am only speaking of this team’s FG%Defense in BigXII play, not for the season. We have improved since December.
My theory is KU’s D is better than Baylor’s D. And if they play zone, look out, as zone-busting is one thing this KU team is good at.
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@ralster Agreed. The 1st time we played them we did not do very well on the board. They actually out rebounded us by 8. We need to pound the glass harder. In that game, they shot 53.3% from the trey and 34.0% overall. We shot 29.4% from the trey and 47.1% overall.
Good D will win the game and better rebounding will give us a better win. Shoot our 40% trey will probably be a big win.
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@ralster if I remember right, Mari did a great job in the middle. Rico is a beast!!
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@mtwagonmaster he seems to be getting better too. Should be a good game!
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@mtwagonmaster sorry about the post. My computer is not behaving.
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@Shanghai_RCJH trying to remember if oubre was playing much then? BG? Seems a long time ago.
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@Crimsonorblue22 I think this game will see Cliff assigned to Rico, if Cliff does well to avoid early fouls and guard Rico effectively. He will be a starter all the way. I think it is his big test.
Starting at TTU could be the warm up for Baylor. Not suggesting HCBS was looking over TTU but planning ahead for his player development.
I have a feeling HCBS will use this game to show our Inside Out game with Ellis and Cliff combo. However, I still see him using 30% of the shots for Trey.
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@Shanghai_RCJH we do need a good passing post this game too. Be interesting, maybe they will have to get out of their zone w/our hot shooting.
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I don’t think its as easy as saying who has the better % from 3 or made 3’s will win the game. Remember the game is in Allen and that’s 5-6 maybe even more points in our favor alone. We’ve had good performances against them @ home. I do think it will be a tough game, Heslip shot the heck out of the ball last year against us so good thing he’s not on the team anymore. Gathers has become even more of a threat inside since we last played them. If we can attack the zone effectively from the middle I think we win by 10
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Scott Drew coaching in AFH. % odds of KU margin of victory:
25% - 1-9 pts.
50% - 10-15 pts.
25% - 16+.Bank on it.
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I will repost this. It was accidentally deleted. A real key in this game will be to control Rico. In our last game w/ Baylor, Gathers had 9-offensive boards (5-defensive). Most he achieved by simply forcing the KU player in under the basket. The officials were allowing it to happen (only 2-fouls called on Gathers). In AFH, he may not get such favorable calls, but we still need to not allow that push, box him out farther out from the basket. Cliff will need to be tough.
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I saw @Crimsonorblue22’s comment on Traylor. I wanted to make sure, if anyone had the TT game still on the DVR, go look at 10:56 and 1:48 of the first half. This is what puzzles me about Traylor. The first one he didn’t block out at all and the TT guy got an easy follow up lay in; and on the second one, watch his no effort for an offensive rebound. This past game, it was, what, 19 minutes, 0 points, 2 rebounds.
We have gotten on Ellis for being soft or finesse. But that guy has really been aggressive on the boards this season, and is playing much better defense than last season.
I just see Ellis giving way more effort than Traylor many times, despite the highlight reel stuff Traylor produces from time to time.
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I feel that Traylor’s blank box score last game was a direct reflection on losing his starting job. Mr. Hustle will bring his lunch pail like he did in the first Baylor game. He came to KU as a muscular, tall, blank slate. There is so much he has learned and so much that his lack of Youth ball has cost him. He is not a skilled dribbler or a practiced mid range shooter. He led the conference last year in shooting percentage because his shots were at the rim and he was good at it. Somehow, in an attempt to broaden his responsibilities, he has regressed in what he did best. He’ll be a fifth year player soon, and we all know how well those guys do at KU. See the Conner Teahan team that played in the National Championship game.
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@wrwlumpy I’ve that same inkling about Traylor’s mindset. Does he feel that the starting job is his? And that he won’t play with the same effort if assigned to the bench for the tipoff? Or maybe there is more to it. Perhaps an undisclosed Traylor injury caused Self to change his starting lineup?
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I’m expecting a monster performance from BamBam. He’ll be coming off the bench, and he is ready to make a statement again.
He will be a key player in this game because it is very possible that Cliff gets in foul trouble. Plus… the combination of Cliff and BamBam to deal with Rico will be too much energy for Rico to handle. Advantage: Kansas.
This is a game where anything could happen, but it is all in Kansas’ hands. Whether Baylor is hot or cold, it will be up to Kansas to determine the outcome.
If we feel like we still have something to prove, and also feel a real need to defend our home court, then we shouldn’t have a problem with Baylor.
If we feel cocky after our positive second have performance against TT, then we can suffer a loss, especially if Baylor gets hot.
It is all in our hands… win or lose.
Everyone needs to be held accountable and bring game on Saturday… (and every game after that)
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The one thing about Traylor are the peaks – he flat won us the EKU game last tournament. I’ve been disappointed with the regression, as @wrwlumpy mentioned. I had viewed him as the perfect big off the bench coming into the season. I just don’t quite know what to think of him now.
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“I had viewed him as the perfect big off the bench coming into the season.”
I think you need to keep to this concept. He is maybe the only guy on the team that fully understands his role and has an identity… “the energy guy.”
So he shouldn’t have ever really been a starter. Energy guys are what you want as your 6th man (or 7th or 8th).
Team strategies are built with your starting 5. You structure your defense, offense, in-bounds plays, everything… mostly off your starting 5. BamBam doesn’t have enough of a toolbox to own one of the five positions and you certainly don’t build your team strategies and structure around him. He’s an energy guy… period.
I believe he is in a slump because he is absorbing more than he can handle. We need to get him back on a singular mentality; to be the energy guy!
I’m really expecting a big bonus off of moving Cliff into the starting role and having BamBam off the bench. It will do Cliff good to get a ton of minutes (if he can stay out of foul trouble). And it will do BamBam good to fulfill a role he can handle.
I’m hopeful this already starts to soak in and work this weekend. I’m hopeful both Cliff and BamBam have good games and putting their energy together as one, they dominate Rico!
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He is maddening. He had maybe the play of the year for KU in the Texas game. He had the 1 game suspension then gave a great game against Utah. He was intrumental in the Baylor comeback.
But his stats tell a completely different story. He’s attempted ZERO FT’s in 7 of his last 9 games. That tells you how non aggressive he has been even when he gets the ball. I don’t get how Self doesn’t get mad at him for taking jump shots when I don’t think I’ve ever seen one go in. His success rate on that midrange shot must be less than 5%. Even Frank Mason has more rebounds than he does.
He gives total effort on some plays then as you can point completely takes others off and I’m not sure Self watches when he does. I think he is somewhat injured and just playing through it. I think his hip injury is worse than is being let on because his hops, and overall effort have lacked the last month at least. Last year he made everything near the basket on hi/low and offensive rebounding. We have seen little of that as he has tried to expand his game with drives to the hoop and other things that just aren’t what he should be focusing on. Again maddening because at the end of last year I thought he would be even better with it being his 4th year. So far he’s proven to be as inconsistent as anyone
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You remember right. KU’s answer to the zone was to lob the ball to Traylor over the zone where he was wide open and he was able to take mid range jumpers. He went 6-7 from the field, 1-1 FT, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks and led KU with 13 points in 25 minutes before fouling out. with 5 minutes left in the game. One of his better outings.
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@HighEliteMajor I am likewise bewildered over Traylor’s recent performance. I think it probably does have something to do with him feeling like he needed to play a bigger role. As you have pointed out many, many, times, we don’t need him to do that. He just needs to bring energy, hustle, rebounding, and score when the opportunity arises. I have to believe that he will get back in his groove.
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Maybe Traylor is playing with the Scout Team in practice for the last month. And, he knows that going ahead, Cliff will start soon, which happened at TTU. So, his chemistry with 1st Team may not be as good as it had been.
Maybe, that is the price to pay to develop a guy like Cliff for the B 12 final strecth and Big Dance ahead.
I have a feeling we are going the see what we were all hoping to see before the season. A complete and balanced team (Inside Out and Outside In) in this game. Cos, Cliff is the only “Starter” piece that is coming along longer than we thought he would have.
Ellis, Mason, Oubre, Cliff and Seldon to be starters from now onwards. Greene will be the 6th Man. Then, come the Energy Guy to pick up any Slacking Guy. Then, Graham to give Mason the rest. A solid 8 man rotation.
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I’ve mentioned it before: Traylor has been mopey all season… weird on-court transition from cheerful exuberance to angry defiance from last year to this. I don’t know what the deal is. The gum? Haircut? Family? Something else? There just is no joy in his playing like he had last year. I didn’t expect him to become TRob II, but his development is the most disappointing part of the season so far to me.
Self seems to be doing everything he can to encourage him with the highest of praises all the time, so hopefully he’ll get it together.
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I can’t really explain BamBam’s play this year. In some ways it seems like Self has geared our entire offense to benefit him. He’s been given turf everywhere except the side perimeter. He knows his strength in scoring is to score in motion, kind of a layup a few feet from the goal. Yet, he doesn’t seem to be taking advantage of his circumstances. It’s like he is trying to mask some esteem issues.
He may not have super speed in comparison to guards, but in the post, he might have the fastest legs in our league, but he isn’t taking advantage of his lateral speed.
Maybe he is over-thinking the game. He has settled in to starting, feels the heavy burden, and over-thinks everything on the court. That can build anxiety and hesitation… seems we’ve seen both of that in him this year.
He may not have the skills of a 5-star recruit, but he should be able to match several other post players in the B12. I hope he figures out his issue because we are going to need good minutes out of him from here on out. Whether he starts or not!
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@drgnslayr I’m sure he is now worried about TO’s, you know how that effects your play.
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It never affected my play… I always knew I was going to turn it over!
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**SERIES HISTORY ** • Saturday is the 27th all-time series meeting between Baylor and Kansas. Baylor trails 4-22 in the series.
##•Baylor is 0-12 all-time in Lawrence with an average scoring margin of -15.9 points per game. ##
• Baylor has defeated Kansas in two of the last six meetings, winning vs. No 4 KU in Waco in 2013 and at the 2012 Big 12 Championship against No. 3 Kansas.
• Baylor was the nation’s only team to defeat Kansas in both the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons.
• The Bears’ other two wins vs. KU were on Feb. 12, 2001 in Waco and March 12, 2009 in Oklahoma City.
• Scott Drew, Fred Hoiberg, Travis Ford and Tom Izzo are the only coaches to defeat Kansas 3 times since 2008-09
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Baylor tomorrow.
Remember the last Baylor game? Baylor’s zone defense was pretty darn good. In the past, I had really been critical of Scott Drew’s zones. Seemed, well, kind of like Rick Barnes’ zone was when we played Texas – amateurish. Non-Boeheim like.
Our offense was pretty stumped. Ellis got some easy hoops inside, then he got into foul trouble. When he returned, Baylor didn’t permit the same path to the hoop. We should expect that from the start.
In the Baylor game, the color guy said that KU needed to do “more than pass it around the perimeter.”
Given how we attacked Texas, I expect that we will.
I grumped a bit the last time because we simply didn’t set any screens against Baylor’s zone. Seemed as though we got stymied much of the time, and did have the ability to hit the creases.
I’m hoping that if we feed the ball in, we get some nice kick-outs for shots. But what would you do if you were Baylor? I’d play our bigs straight up, which means there will be two defenders near, and protect against any kick-out. Will be interesting to see of we can go from ball side block to far wing with any passing if that happens, or if we can play some big to big – DJack/Arthur style (best play of OT vs. Memphis, if anyone recalls).
Another item to watch – against the TT zone, I noticed that we had one man out top, and two wings. TT had an odd mad front. So that was a bit unconventional. Baylor also has an odd man front. I don’t recall that we used an odd man front against Baylor’s odd man front – don’t think that we did, but can’t remember.
Anyway, this is significant because the perimeter defenders in the 1-1-3 that Baylor runs will match face up to our perimeter players (just like a 1-3-1 would), which is different than if we ran a two man, or even man front vs. the zone.
Playing against Baylor, after what I saw last time, will present a big challenge. Hope the Fool’s Gold mine is producing.
