NCAA Seeding
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I know I am way ahead of myself as we still have another month of basketball to play before Selection Sunday but I have some questions.
Lunardi currently has us as a #2 in the Midwest Region playing in Omaha. Unfortunately he has UK as the #1 in this region and UNC as the #3. Is the committee still this obsessed with Roy Williams matching up with his former team? Is it going to try and put the #1-3 All Time programs (as far as wins) in the same region for TV purposes? This grouping just seems too insane to me.
Also, if we are a #2 seed in UK’s region, I would rather be a 3-4 seed in any other region. I just don’t like the idea of playing them before the Final 4. Any thoughts on that? I would personally rather see them in the Final 4 as all of the sudden the stakes are that much higher for UK and their destiny is that much closer which could make them play that much tighter.
At any rate, there is a lot of basketball to play but I would really be bummed if we are in the UK region come Selection Sunday. Call me a pussy but I’d rather play anyone else.
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But I agree.
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Don’t fret. Lunardi always does that stuff in his brackets. While he has a pretty good record predicting who’s in/who’s out, his seedings and placements are often quite a bit different from what the committee decides. I don’t want to be in UK’s bracket either. I do think if they go undefeated they will slip up in the tournament. But I doubt that slip up would be vs. Kansas. No way they don’t get up for that game.
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There’s Kentucky’s region and there’s every other region.
You want to be opposite UK as much as possible. Best case scenario, we don’t see them until the national final. There’s just so much distance between UK and the field, I don’t really see them losing prior to the Elite Eight. That means it’s just not likely there’s an upset to clear the path if you’re in their region.
None of the other potential 1’s scare me. Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin, etc. are all very good, but also all very beatable. We are really under pressure to avoid being on the 2/3 border because that puts us in UK’s region (lowest 2, highest 3). I’d rather we be on the 1/2 border, or the 3/4 border.
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@justanotherfan Exactly. Your last paragraph is sort of my fear. As of today we kind of look like a 2-4 lock. For us to get a #1 seed a ton would have to go wrong for the teams in front of us. I don’t see Gonzaga or Zona losing again. Wisconsin may win out. One of the two ACC teams (Duke or VA) will certainly get a #1 at this rate. That doesn’t leave much of a shot for us unless we simply win the rest of our games.
All this said I remember the most angry I have ever been on Selection Sunday. It was 2003 and I could not believe that we got a #2 with Arizona as the #1 and Duke as the #3. That was an absolute gauntlet. It ended up working out pretty well.
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Well we certainly don’t deserve to spared a matchup with Kentucky prior to the Final Four. Having been trounced by them, why would the committee grant us that grace if they wouldn’t do so for a team like Wichita St. last year. You have to earn your way to the Final Four. An what it boils down to is, anyone NOT in Kentucky’s bracket has been done a favor by the committee. By virtue of our blowout loss, we would be the least deserving 2, 3 or 4 seed of that favor.
And then there’s the ratings considerations, which do play a part in seeding. A potential Kansas/Kentucky matchup the week before the Final Four would be attractive to the network.
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@KUinLA great avatar
I get it.
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It is way too soon for me to get my mind around seedings in March. There is just too much basketball left. We can expect the unexpected when looking nationally. Some of these teams are going to have big upsets, major injuries, players in trouble with the law and academics. There are way too many factors still in play.
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Other things equal, the objective of Big Media is to get KU out ASAP and to make absolutely sure it does not reach the Final Four.
Further, it doesn’t matter which seed they give us, or which region they put us in, they are going to make us face a region with at least two teams with four 6-10 to 7-0 players.
UK, Duke, UA, Louisville and Gonzaga are those teams.
Depending on our final record and whether we win the B12, we will wind up in one region or another and we will have to play one footer stacked team to make it to the final of our region, and then another footer stack in the regional final.
If we get by these obstacles, then there is nothing else they can do, or would want to do, about keeping us out of the Final Four, because by then we would be good copy.
But they WILL do that.
And unless we get a lot better this month, avoid injuries and get hot in the tournament shooting the trey, we WON’T get by those two footer stacks.
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The weakest 2 seed is supposed to play the strongest 1 seed.
If we remain #8 (unlikely), UK remained #1 (more than likely), and the committee faithfully followed according to the AP or Coaches rankings (which they don’t… they use RPI and some other voodoo), we would be matched with UK.
That said, the committee can jumble that logical pairing if they want to avoid a matchup with a team previously played (typically same-conference opponents) or to help keep a team in it’s geographic region.
And depending on your level of cynicism with the NCAA, you might conclude, as @KUinLA has, that compelling matchups and ratings might influence the committee…
Bottomline: it’s all just fun speculation at this point. One difference between us and Joe Lunardi is that he gets paid for his speculation.
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Yes I know it is early, but I just saw the rankings and the loss to OSU didn’t hurt us. We are still # 8- so a 2 seed-the lowest. Hopefully we finish strong and move further up. I DO NOT want to face UK before the final four-of course I don’t see us in the FF if we keep playing one half up, one half down.
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The NCAA has always seeded with an eye to eyeball catching match ups, and to salting the Final Four with Big Eyeball attractors.
In the last 10 years anyway, KU’s experience has always been if it has one of the four best teams, then the NCAA is sure to load KU’s regions with as much upset potential as possible.
If KU has a lesser team, then it always goes into a region with two teams ideally suited to beating KU.
Seeding has always been about ranking the teams according to goodness, and then leaving the ranking system loose enough to allow rationalizing seeding for good ratings.
Now that Big Shoe is apparently wagging the dog, the above has to be achieved while also apparently favoring the teams Big Shoe appears to stack. Hypothetically speaking, of course.
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Come on boys and girls?
First you don’t want to play UK when the stakes are high. That team has shown to rise to the occasion.
Second if the stakes are high for them then they will be high for KU. I know KU isn’t having a stellar year here, but they are indeed still KU.
No lets play them early when UK is just getting warmed up. They’re a young team if they see KU in the Final Four it will be game on, but if they see them before the Final Four it’ll be like we already smacked these guys around once.
They come thinking hey we showed up we win. That’s win KU comes out and hit’s them in the mouth. They won’t know what hit them.
Remember my friends it’s not where you start in the tournament it’s where you finish.
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Self has a very good record against big name teams in tourney time. With all the down talk of Self lately (a lot of which is deserved), give us the big name schools and watch Self work his magic!
