Sometimes Your Real Opponent Is the Schedule
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KU has triumphed over a very tough set of road opponents early.
But now KU faces another kind of challenge.
It is the dreaded Wednesday, Saturday, Monday set of games culminating against a good opponent you have to beat to get a split that will have played a Monday, Saturday, Monday set of games.
Iowa State has an unfair advantage because the accrued fatigue factor is going to be much greater on KU than ISU.
In an identical schedule situation, KU would almost certainly beat ISU. But its not.
So: KU is really playing the schedule the next three games, not the opponents.
ISU wouldn’t have to win in Lawrence, because it won in Ames, and and so all ISU would be needing to do was try to steal a win in AFH. But these are not normal circumstances, because ISU dug a little hole for itself by losing to TTech.
So: ISU has a lot of pressure on to win in AFH just to get back into the race.
Alas, KU is going to come into that ISU game on Monday night in AFH having played TCU in Fort Worth, Wednesday, a in-state rivalry game with KSU at AFH at 1pm Saturday.
There are a lot things suck about that scheduling and they all have to do with KU being a young team and ISU being more experienced.
First, there is the timing within the season. KU is a young team and young teams are already finding this time of the season beyond their high school envelopes.
Second, there is the fact that young teams have less experience at pacing themselves for these clumpy scheduled stretches.
Third, there is the fact that young teams are not as used to having a bunch of game plans stacked on them early on to get them ready for three games in short succession.
Fourth, KU really needs to win the ISU game to because its a home game against a team it lost to on the road, and, as I said, ISU is going to be highly motivated to win it to get back into the race.
Fifth, playing a must win game, like ISU, on the heels of a rivalry game, is a very tall order for a young team.
So, how is Self likely to manage this three game set?
All three are must win games. TCU is one of the road wins you figure you have to win. KSU is a home game against a rival breathing down your throat in second place, so you have to have it. ISU is a team you lots to on the road so you have to have it at home.
You sure cannot amp three straight games Wednesday, Saturday, Monday.
You are coming off a peak performance versus Texas, so you have to expect a psychological let down with a young team. That means it is going to come on the road against a bottom tier team in TCU, which is good and bad. Its good because of the three, TCU should be the best team to have to win one in the bottom third of your performance distribution. It is bad, because its on the road and Trent Green likes to rough teams up.
Self has almost no choice but to send them out flat, and substitute like hell, to try to save legs the entire game, even if it means getting upset. If TCU were to upset us, then we could correct the loss on the back nine.
The big question then is who to amp for: KSU, or ISU?
Its scary, but I think you’ve got to amp for KSU, even if it means getting swept by ISU on Monday night.
Why?
The worst case scenario is losing to KSU on Saturday, then ISU on Monday.
You know ISU is going to leave it all on the floor Monday night to try to get back in the running regardless.
KSU is likely going to leave it all on the floor Saturday to try to steal one on the road from the league leader.
What you are hoping is that Texas bounces back from its defeat to KU and destroys ISU in Ames tomorrow night. This means ISU is on the ropes for the rest of the conference chase.
So you amp for KSU to nail down a home win against your conference rival and closest team on your heels, because ISU has lost to Texas.
Then you try to grind out a win against ISU on your home floor, even though your legs are not going to favor you.
Thus you have assured a 2-1 record and possibly with some luck a grinder and 3-0 versus ISU.
At that point, you have a week off before going to Gallagher-Iba for an OSU game you amp for because you follow with a Tuesday game against TTech you ought to win.
If KU were to win out against TCU, KSU, and ISU, then pick up another pair against OSU and TTech, KU would be very, very, VERY tough to beat for the title.
But given how young KU is, its very likely to come up with an L against ISU, a team it would kick under almost any other cirucumstance.
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@jaybate-1.0 Trent green?
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@jaybate-1.0 we got this, we will get them amped. It won’t take much at AFH and we have revenge from ksu last year at their house-Mari on bench, and I’m pretty sure we aren’t going to have the same results w/ISU!! Jethro will back me!
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@Crimsonorblue22 Me too!
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@jaybate-1.0 Now, jb, don’t be a’backin’ up on your recent prediction, even before the Austin trip, that our Jayhawks are destined to win out! HA! Surely, that assessment was posted tongue-in-cheek. That said, here’s my take on the upcoming 6-day/3-game schedule. We win at TCU because of talent mismatch, and because of two giant warnings: the huge upset down there a couple of years ago and TCU taking WVU to overtime Saturday. Self can squeeze by w/o the big amp Wed. night. The BIG AMP comes Saturday vs. Purple Invaders at AFH. Self himself is worth a couple of points, the field house is worth a couple, and the AMP seals the advantage. Weber crawls home to Manhattan dragging drooping dobber. Greatest threat is the quick turnabout game Monday night vs. ISU. Jayhawks dig deep into cache of PRIDE to pull out that victory. 10:45 p.m. Monday night, KU 8-1 in the league. Your earlier prognostication right on target! Ammo exhausted, but guns and manpower intact.
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@jaybate-1.0 Don’t forget about OUR motivation factors. Two of which are: We will be pumped up and eager to return the favor against ISU. 2nd, Cliff will be especially turnt up. This is the team that Self sat his butt on the bench to prove a point. This is the game where Coach took a loss rather than give one of our best players more mins which probably would have helped us win. So, we have reasons to be jacked as well. Now, it’s only a matter if we play that way.
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I never worry about home games for our team. Road games I worry. They can have their Hilton Magic, and I don’t know how it compares to AFH ‘magic’, but I’d guess our magic is better than their magic, largely because we’re almost always a better team.
I don’t know what goes into major college athletics, but I don’t get the ‘quick turnaround’ idea either. Saturday afternoon to Monday night is 48 hours plus to be ready for the next game.
Fatigue? My daughter will play three soccer matches this week. T,Th,Fr They are 80 minutes long. She will be on the field the entire time of all three matches. She gets pushed, elbowed, kicked, tripped and runs at the very least 2 miles in the process. Saying it’s a quick turnaround sounds like excuse making.
This team has lots of experience with the Saturday-Monday thing. That’s part of what you get by being very good. I say we’re ready for both Saturday and Monday. But as two years ago proves, Wednesday, although it defies logic, is the game that we might be a little bit on edge about.
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I don’t think its a step for a stepper. We’re 1,200 lbs of screaming steel, and sex appeal. We have guards…tough, hard nosed lads that suck the life out of other teams. We have the best 3 point shooter this side of Ron Kellog ( NOBODY ever shot a prettier shot ), and a thunderous monster down low who can’t wait to tear the rim off with a thunderous dunk…did I mention Perry the great…how about the guy with 8 foot arms with the smooth lefty shot? What about a man named Wayne, who will put it all together at some point, and will be a hero …
Mere mortals would pause at running the gauntlet of TCU, the Grapes, and the Clones, but we’re going 3-0 … because we’re that good…
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Doesn’t everybody give us their “amped up, this is our superbowl, this is our big chance, our only full house, leave it all on the floor” game?
And, barring injuries, at 20 years old and in peak physical condition, I’m with wissoxfan83, shouldn’t they be able to pony up the energy and ignore the bruises to play 30 minutes (or less) of game they love and have been playing since they were kids?
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@KUSTEVE I thought Wayne had a great game against Texas. His three’s were as pretty as everyone else.
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Why would KU be “flat”, given all the youth and eager beavers on this particular roster? And we have rotation depth this year, which only gets deeper if we open up the score in the 2nd half of ANY game…
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@jaybate-1.0 I believe it was Hadrian who said, when asked how he was going to build (or rebuild) Rome. “Brick by brick, my friend,” One game at a time is all you can play. The first order of business is to root like mad for the Longhorns tonight, but either way, ONE of those two teams will pick up another loss. I never coached (except academic teams) but I taught high-schoolers. You bring your best game as a teacher, see that they have all the skills, and do all you can to motivate, Deep down, it is up to them. A week from tomorrow, we should know a lot more.
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@lincase great pts!
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Alright, coach, you’re right about me getting a little weak in the knees about Monday night of the 3 in 6.
Hell, yeah, we get all three.
AND WE WIN OUT!!!
Gauntlet down!
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The only real worry I have is that we are an outside shooting team playing an outside shooting team on Monday night.
Our legs are going to get tired before theirs, because of our scheduled 3 in 6 and the BTWs (balls to walls) effort that will be required Saturday vs. Interim Head Coach Weber’s only big game of the season, since they won’t make the Madness.
But, you are right, we have pluses too.
But when the legs go, so does the trey balling.
And games with ISU sooner or later get reduced to who shoots the most and best percentage of trey balls.
That’s why I ran a warning flag up the mast.
Now, it wasn’t a white flag!
It was just a damned warning flag.
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@wissoxfan83
See post above to Zig about the perils of trey balling after 3-6 and a BTW effort against Hair Helmet Weber.
I have been shamed into defending my winning out prediction by @REHawk!
In fairness to me, I did say we would win out, or lose 1 more after OU.
And the team went to Texas and did me right.
And when I say the team might lose one more it would be against ISU on a Monday after 3 in 6 and KSU on Saturday.
After that it would be a win out!!!
Ah, it feels good to be outside the box!
Again!
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@KUSTEVE said:
We’re 1,200 lbs of screaming steel, and sex appeal.
When you put it that way, well, I have to back up my position to Coach.
WE WIN OUT!!!
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Good to see you back, but you don’t seem your usual expansive self.
What gives?
Where were you?
Did you join @VailHawk undercover doing covert basketball opps for the BIA in Austin to soften up the Longhorns for the KU games?
This extended absence during the start of a conference season is most unlike you.
Health? Business? or a Woman?
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@wrwlumpy Wayne played well against Texas. With continued growth with the new shot, he’ll be over 40% in no time. I feel like at some point in the season, he will win a huge game for us with his shot.
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The challenge of this type of clustered schedule is that you may overlook an opponent.
KU is going to get TCU’s best shot. Why? Well, TCU needs an elite win to push them closer to the right side of the bubble. They haven’t done much in conference, and their non-con schedule was soft. A home win at KU is a nice feather in your cap come Selection Sunday. We will get their best effort.
K-State will give KU its best. K-State will not make the tournament unless they do one of two things (maybe need to do both). They either need to win the conference or they need to have 4 wins against the KU, ISU, UT trio. They already have an ISU loss. Even if they hold serve at home, that still means either winning in Austin or Lawrence. We will get their best shot.
Iowa State will give KU its best shot because ISU can’t win the conference without a KU sweep thanks to that performance at Tech.
That’s 3 games in six days where the opponent will be playing with their season goals hanging in the balance. That’s a tough row to hoe.
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First, we agree that the first order of business is to help Texas slaughter ISU tonight. We have already done what we can do by beating Texas, and thus instilling in them the desire to restore their dignities with a vengeance. This gamblers and line setters tend to expect to occur–a good team tends to rebound after a pasting.
Second, we agree that you have to play them one game at a time, but I do believe you will see Self use as long of a bench as he possibly can against TCU, even if it means a close game, that might not otherwise occur, in order to make sure he will have strong legs vs. KSU. Note: I know my take that Self modulates level of performance to fit the intensity level required to beat different opponents in short time spans is questioned by many. All I can say is that I read the games of the past seasons as fitting my hypothesis. And I am open to other hypotheses that fit better. But so far no one has produced one that fits better.
Third, we agree that you bring your best as a teacher, and let the students do the best they can with it, but…I argue your best as a teacher might involve tuning your students up incrementally for the final debate, by keeping them from using some of they best rhetorical devices, and losing their edge in surprise in future debates and in so doing, keeping things a bit edgier and thereby keeping them from getting overconfident for the big debate.
Finally, about Hadrian…
He was a wall builder.
Walls have their places tactics, and do have to be erected one stone at a time. Walls are very useful at keeping folks in.
But if you want to keep folks out…they are, even when well manned, lacking on their own, except when used as temporary means of delaying rate of attack, and channelling place of attack.
A great Russian general proved that while a single wall, or trench line, could never stop a concerted effort to overwhelm it, a constellation of walls, or trenches, could be designed to shape a battle field into channels of attack and kill zones around those channels that an enemy could become so depleted within that counter attack became not only feasible but almost certain of victory, because of: a.) depletion; and b.) the use of the remaining unconquered walls and trenches still behind the enemy’s foremost advance, as means of ensnaring his retreat between the hammer of the counter attack and the anvil of the unconquered positions in the rear of the retreat.
So: walls are not necessarily so stupid as George Patton’s famous epigram would have us believe in some ways.
''Fixed fortifications are monuments to man’s stupidity."–George Patton
But the more mobility one can bring to bear on a walled fortification, or even a carefully contrived constellation of them, the more vulnerable and ineffectual they become.
We want to be high mobility wall flankers, and when expedient, wall breachers, tunnelers under, and flyers over.
Rock Chalk!
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Because each team will give us its best shot in such a short time is why we might lose one and the last one seems the most risky because we will have to shoot treys well to beat a good trey shooting ISU team, and shooting treys well requires rested legs.
But this circumstance is also why you tailor your two controllable variables to fit each opponent. Our two controllable variables are bench length in front court and bench length on there perimeter. It is assumed that the amping against KSU cannot likely be repeated only two days later.
TCU is the first opponent, and the weakest opponent, so one as a coach has to decide if one’s team is a capable of beating TCU with a sub part effort. If the answer is yes, you send the players out flat, you as much of your bench as possible, and give the team just enough wrinkles to eek out a win against a weak team that you could have beaten handily with a short bench and an amped effort.
KSU is the strongest team inside, the team with the stingiest defense, and team with the biggest emotional charge of the three because of the rivalry. KSU also is the team that could tie us by beating us. So: you amp for KSU and shorten your bench in the front court, and try if possible to lengthen your bench on the perimeter. Why? Because a short front court bench ensures you can handle KSU inside, and you gamble your back court depth can hang with KSU’s short bench front court. By doing this, if the lead permits, you then maximize your likely hood of you perimeter trey ballers having enough legs to make treys against ISU’s better rested trey ballers. But if the score forces you into short benching the perimeter to win against KSU, then you do it. And figure you can afford a loss to ISU if you win against KSU.
ISU has to be dealt with by playing an exceptional inside game in addition to taking and making a lot of treys. I really think the key to beating ISU is the big men running and the trey ballers making treys. It will be tough for the big men to run after the KSU effort, so the logical thing is to lengthen the front court bench vs. ISU and use all five KU bigs to run the floor both ways non stop. Doing this will minimize iSU’s cherry picking and other easy transition baskets, while at the same time buy KU some easy baskets in transition. The running of the big men can occur whether our perimeter players fast or slow. Our best case is that our perimeter depth can hang with ISU and we run our perimeter players to try to run the legs off ISU’s perimeter shooters. ISU only has two good perimeter trey ballers. KU has potentially four. If we can play all four of our perimeter players big minutes, then we should run with two and to wear down ISU’s two good perimeter shooters, and walk and shoot treys with our other two perimeter trey ballers.
We can win this third game, even after a peak effort against ISU, if we run our bigs, and run two of our four perimeter shooters, and walk and shoot our other two in alternation.
Any other scenario favors ISU.
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@jaybate-1.0 Hadrian did build the wall marking the northern border of the empire. I will concede your point about how well that worked. He also rebuilt the Parthenon and built the Temple of Venus and Roma. I still thing the “one brick at a time” is good advice.
I did try to get kids hyped up for certain competitions. Sometimes it worked. Often it was more about who they had just broken up with. Thank goodness I preceded most of the social media and texting and twittering insanity!
Game face on for tonight, and Wednesday, and Saturday, and next Monday . . . RCJH
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They were not only pretty but timely as well. His first 3 was when UT was ahead 11-2 and got KU started. He then hit 2 FTs to put KU ahead 38-37, and his second three stopped UT’s momentum by tying the score at 44 and starting KU’s run that put the game away; Texas never lead after that.
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I think we will be ok simply because our 3 pt attack is so well diversified. Yes Greene is our poster boy, go 5-5, and stomp the will out of you long range bomber. But almost quietly Frank, Devonte, Kelly, Perry, and Wayne are taking their 2-5 attempts per game. If one or two of them manage to make the first couple they can catch fire and we can “ride the wave” as HEM likes to say. I don’t see fatigue being that big of a factor with this team because the depth is becoming so good. There is so little drop off when we go to the bench that everyone has a chance to really rest in game. Self’s trust in the 8 man rotation vs Texas proves that. Cliff, Brennan, and Devonte are ready for 20 minutes or more every game now. I expect we see a lot of Svi and Lucas vs. TCU but the solid 8 man back against the last two.
The 2008 team was really only 7 deep with the occasional appearance of an 8th man (Cole mainly). This team is deeper and actually a better shooting team all around. I think we have so many options chucking it from deep and we will be so emotionally charged to beat Iowa State that we win that one going away. Look for about 4-6 made threes v TCU (Self will limit shots from anyone who looks to catch fire), 8-11 vs. KSU (riding the wave of the hot hand) and a slight decrease 7-10 vs. ISU (a more balanced attach from all spots).
P.S. Those are total number of made threes not percentages! I wish though!
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@jaybate-1.0 Uh, uh! Ah, ah! You are slipsliding again!!! MAN UP! None of this “one loss” bullhockey!
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“So: ISU has a lot of pressure on to win in AFH just to get back into the race.”
Good luck with that!
I read the Coach Self bulletin in prep of ISU at AFH:
- Get back on defense. No more run outs.
Well… there goes 21 of their points!
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“Why would KU be “flat”,”
The good aspect of this team is they are really a team.
But the bad part is they mostly come out playing the same (because they are a team and rely on synergies)… so if we get off to a cold start it is most of the team being cold.
Maybe that explains our lopsided losses. We win a bunch of tough games, but when we lose, we lose big!
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@KUSTEVE When we lost to Temple, Seth Tweeted, “What the Hell was KU doing traveling to Philly to play Temple on a Monday after playing on a Saturday night before the Christmas Break.” The turn around before the ISU game was evil with us doing the traveling. Even in the NCAA tournament, you at least get to play at the same neutral site and are able to sleep and play against a team that just went through what you did. Self himself said that the ISU scheduling went against the Big 12 bylaws.
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I don’t give into that one often because they are kids and should be full of energy.
I remember being out in a small town as a kid and riding my bike 50 miles to eat pizza, then remembering I had to bike home! I did it, then had to help my grandpa on the farm the next morning at 5am.
These kids are tough!
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@jaybate-1.0 Tough, tough schedule this next week, you are right about that. What I am hoping for is that Self will not need to amp them against ISU cuz its a revenge game and KU comes out ready to take the first punch, make them bleed and our home court advantage will spot us at least 5 in that game.
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@jaybate-1.0 *multiple lines of defense to funnel the attacker into a desired location"…and since you mention “Russian general”, I’m going to guess you are talking about EasternFront, WW2, Battle of Kursk, southern German pincer, which got bogged down in the prepared defenses by either Zhukov or Timoshenko??
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I have to say I feel like this team has 1 or 2 more slip ups in conference play. At OSU always scares me as well as 2 games against Huggies WVU boys. I think 15-3 is solid and will do the trick. BXII Champs and a 1 or 2 seed. It will be tough to get a 1 seed with UK and Gonzaga unlikely to lose. Put UVA and Duke in there with Wisconsin and there isn’t much room for KU at the top.
Like many of you, I assume, 2008 was my absolute favorite year of basketball. I loved that team and especially the result! So I am always comparing the current team to that one. Even if we don’t win the title (still tough to figure out who will beat UK) I think this team is shaping up to be the most like 2008 we have had since then. We’ve got shooters, we’ve got defenders, Kelly has hands that remind you of Mario (maybe without the anticipation) and Frank reminds me more and more of Russ Rob every day. Jamari is a slightly smaller version of Darnell, Perry is our smooth 4 who can stretch it like Arthur. Greene and Graham combined have the skills of Collins with shooting, handles, and toughness. Cliff is a difference maker off the bench like Kaun. They are starting to really understand TEAM defense. The way they were able to deny the post against Texas was awesome (either that or Texas was just stupid! Haven’t rewatched to see!). They play their best at the end of games. We don’t have one star, but 8 players who could take over any game. I find Self said it best after the Texas game, “I think I could fall in love with this group!”
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Regarding which foe to “amp up” the team for…why not all of them? Get on a roll on a higher level of existence, a merciless one. I say this because of this year’s peculiar situation of a DEEP team of eager beavers. Very easy to tell a starved-for-mpg kid to go ‘attack, all out’. It could be a Blitz…Jamari-style. Do unto others what the Clones did to us in Ames. What we did to OU the 1st half…
Now, we have platoons. Hit em with wave after wave of intensity, as a famous Russian general once did…
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I’m kind old fashion in this regard. I look at one game at a time. So much can happen from today till next Monday. A loss here or a win there not only by KU but also by another Big 12 team can change all logic. What was supposed to be a tough game could be come a snoozer, and vice versa
No really like clock work after KU plays a game. I get on Espn look up their next game to see who they are playing, where, what time, and will it be televised. I guess I’m the fan that never looks ahead. Well unless I’m planing on attending a game.
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I agree. One game at a time is the answer; ISU took Tech for granted and lost. I paid for a lot of my beer in college shooting pool and getting opponents to concentrate on the next ball while missing the ball at hand.
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“That’s 3 games in six days where the opponent will be playing with their season goals hanging in the balance. That’s a tough row to hoe.”
Right on!
I think that explains our entire B12 season. Everyone has circled their dates with Kansas because we’ve been on top for a decade.
All of these schools know the fans will pack the house to see the KU game. A bad showing can’t be swept under the rug of their fan bases and these teams know that if they don’t come read then Kansas will truly embarrass them on their home court.
Our team surely has the toughest schedule in the country… hands down!
First, we chose the toughest pre-conf schedule… then we go into the top or one of the top conferences with a decade win streak on the line. No one comes close to playing as many tough games as we have, especially when noting the target on our back for every single conference game!
Now will it help us in March? That remains to be seen.
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Yes, and it was Zhukov that innovated it.
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Can’t you hear them slapping virtually?
I said they would either win out, or get one loss the rest of the way. That’s a fact, coach.
But for you today, I reduced it to win out.
No equivocating.
I even explained how he could get the third win on Monday night leaving the amp for Saturday and KSU: long bench inside–use all five bigs including Hunter–running the asses off the ISU bigs every trip end to end both directions, and long bench perimeter–running two of our four perimeter trey ballers==the ones playing whenever ISU’s only two good trey ballers are, then bring in our other two trey ballers to walk it and micro-burst the trey balls on their rested legs. Game. Set. Match.
Rock Chalk!
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Only a 50 miles?
Shoot, I once rode a century through a mine field for practicing mine sweepers out at Fort Riley to get a Snickers and a milk at my aunt’s house, then rode back through practice artillery gunning, and then had to dodge practice strafing runs by A-4 Skyhawks over from Forbes practicing on my ass to make it home for dinner, and then I had go over and help my Dad embalm Alf Landon.
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PHOF!
Love to hear from those with experience in the trenches.
Hadrian had a pair.
And I can recall a teacher that had given me a remarkable opportunity one time being rather disappointed when I threw it away moping about a girl that dumped me.
Were it not for hearts, we would likely be nearly perfect, but I would not trade an hour of the passion of love for another year of life, even at this late date.
Viva the glory in the flower and the splendor in the grass.
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Ah a pool player.
Hell I don’t know how many shots I missed trying to set myself up for the next one. lolI’m sure HCBS does some things to set up our beloved Jayhawks for the next game, or some game in the future. Yet when it comes to the players and even it’s fans it’s one game at a time. That’s why fans watch, players play, and HCBS makes millions coaching the game we love.
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@jaybate-1.0 Sometimes there are said to be SPLINTERS in that grass.
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@jaybate-1.0 “…help my dad embalm Alf Landon.”??? You gotta be crappin’ us!
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Yep, I was telling a bit of a stretcher there coach and I’m going to add on it in a moment.
But first, honest, I’m with you on splendor AND splinters AND EVEN a Splendid Splinter.
But embalmin’ Landon was nothin, Coach!
I used to have to ride a J.C. Higgins balloon tired bike 40 years into the future and try to figure out which Kansas summer game coaches were rumored to be helping Self and which ones were rumored to be channeling players away from him and why? It was one helluva a long ride and no one would even try to explain it to me, and so I would have to ride back 40 years and begin reading all kinds of muck raking books about college basketball that Bobby Knight appeared to have been some kind of a force behind the scenes regarding. And then try to extrapolate them forwards for their never having been a clean up. And if I were late either way, I would lose my supper!!!
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@jaybate-1.0 did you ever read the Korleone story?
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Not yet, but I would still like to. What about it grabbed you so deeply?
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Saw him play in Vegas and heard a lot about him. Thought he had a lot of potential.
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I saw him play once on a televised McDonalds AA game, and thought he would be very good, but I am not a very good judge of players based on what they do in that sort of game.
