ISU and the Risk of More Inside Out
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@wrwlumpy “Father Dudenhoffer of Jayhawk Basketball…” Ah, nice. Many of us will not forget to refer back to that nomenclature!
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Ah, suren’ it twas, sir.
And you were already bein’ my own Fatter Dudenhoffer with your collages, sir, quite a bit more than I to you, I should say.
Suren’ ya were, suren’ ya were!
Perhaps you’ll be forming your graphical duden shortly, too, sir.
I shall look upon it with delight and fancy in the showin’ and not tellin’ it will do.
And the little people, sir, they surely must be enlivenin’ your door.
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The key to winning this game is scoring more than they will. I know cliche but its true in this game.
They score 80 points a game, KU scores 71. Although competition in their last 4 games has brought down their avg’s considerably we will have to score. We cannot have a bad night offensively and expect to walk away with their fans crying again.
If I had to pick one guy we need to shutdown to win its Naz Long. He has become a key part of their offense and with 43 of his 63 made baskets 3’s yeah we need to be on him like we are trying to steal his wallet. They make 10 3’s at home they will win, unless we have some heroism effort from someone.
Hopefully we come out early hitting shots and find a way to stop their spread offense.
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ISU is averaging 70 points in conference play and in the last 3 games (2-1) they have out scored their conference opponents by a total of 3 points (2 OSU, 2 WVU, -1 BU). KU has averaged 69 points and outscored its 3 conference opponents by 42 points ( BU 1, TTU 31, OSU 10).
Defense-wise, in conference play ISU has allowed 69 ppg and KU has allowed 55 ppg.
Both teams beat OSU at home, ISU by 2 and KU by 10.
Both played Baylor away, KU won by one ISU lost by 1
P.S. Playing TTU skews the stats in KU’s favor.
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It depends.
If ISU shoots 25 or more treys, and is shooting its average or better, KU will have to shoot treys a nearly equivalent number and percentage of treys, and hold ISU to 5-8 fewer shot attempts to win the game. It can do this with stripping, blocks, alters and rebounding on the defensive end, coupled with protecting it on the offensive end and an edge in offensive rebounding.
If ISU shoots a poor percentage on its treys, then Self can afford to muddy it up, stay inside out looking for the inside trey, and shoot less than 15 treys outside, rebound mightily on both ends and grind out a W.
What Self does depends largely on the first five trey attempts by ISU.
Increasingly, this is how it is with every game.
Self has to be forced into matching 3ptas.
He won’t do it willingly.
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Quite the thread.
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Yes, my thoughts, exactly.
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I think Iowa St will come out on fire. This will be our most hostile environment we will play in all year. Other than the Georgetown game, we haven’t been good on the road. It will probably take the best game of the year from KU to pull it out. Since Fred has made this series relevant again its taken a whole new life as evidence by the Gameday crew in town.
I thought before conference play started that we would lose. The 3-0 start has changed my view some and Baylor pulling it out against them last night has given me more optimism but I won’t be devastated if we drop this game.
Conference stats seem to show we have a good chance. I’m thinking we need Mason, or Oubre to hit for 20 pts and Selden & Ellis to do better than 3-15.
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@drgnslayr I think we’ll make 20 3 pointers against the Clones. Our offense has been waiting for a cherry cheese cake match up like the Clones. I think we brutalize them, and their punk fan base…
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I got tons of man love for one Jethro Jayhawk fan! I’m a believer. Sign me up for 20 3 pointers.
I see the outcome of this year as a contest. Not so much between us and other teams. I see this as a contest from within our own team.
I put some players on one side… the tough side… Frank, Kelly, Cliff, Devonte, BamBam…
And I put some players on the other side… the side that often plays soft… Perry, Wayne, sometimes Brannen, Svi and Landen.
I view the outcome of this year as a battle of wills. Which side will win over move support from the other side?
I’ve been on a lot of teams. And it only takes one or two guys being soft to ruin a team.
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You must have been flipping great fun to play with. Wish I had at least gotten to be on your pick up team a few times. It must have been a gas.
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@jaybate-1.0 Yeah, but what if you got picked on the other team? No fun at all…
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Before I played some on the playground that’s what I would have thought for sure, but after? Oh, no, it would have been even more fun playing against him. I just would have lost without someone as good on my team.
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I’m thinking some of the inside out play in the OSU game was to try to keep from having a hot game from outside when we didn’t need it. @jaybate-1.0 always talks about shooting back to averages and wouldn’t it be nice to have those averages on the way up on the road at ISU. We shot 3-12 last game after scorching Tech with 11-22. Self couldn’t afford to let the guys go nuts from deep for a second game in a row and then most certainly be due for an off game from outside. Outside shooting is so streaky and unpredictable. Even really really good 3% teams will have the occasional 3-15 or 5-20 game. And it is very tough to win such a game.
We are better than OSU and had a great plan to wear out Forte by throwing length, then speed, then length, then more speed at him. He could barely walk out of that gym in the end. He wasn’t hurt, he was tired… We simply didn’t need an outside in game against those short cowboys so why not gamble and try to save up for another hot shooting night at Hilton. I think Self might think he can beat this law of averages stuff. Let the team shoot bad from 3 on an inside out night when you can afford it to let them get hot on a night when we need it.
Every shooter knows that shooting gets easier after the first make. After Kelly made his first, did we go back to him? What about Wayne? Frank shot 5 but only made the last one (not 100% sure on that but it was definitely late!)! This might give even more insight into Greene’s 3 minutes. His first shot was for the team a terrible shot. Selfish, hot doggin, and instigating. Don’t want to nail one right in the face of their best shooter to light even more of a fire under him. BUT, it was a confident shot. Leave Greene in that game and no doubt he makes 3 or 4 shooting with that kind of confidence. So… sit him and piss him off for 37 minutes to hopefully let him loose against the Cyclones.
Jaybate is calling Perry going off this game, I say Greene has another 5 trey, 20 pt night! Go Brennan Go!!!
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@jaybate-1.0 @REHawk @drgnslayr @etc. I wish my students cared as much about KU basketball as I do (or basketball period here in Texas) so that I could make them read some of these posts. It would be nice to show them what real analysis, complex inferences, and great writing looks like when done for fun! Keep it coming everybody!
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@KUSTEVE Unfortunately, we’ll be lucky to attempt 20 three pointers Saturday.
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Heck yeah! To both posts.
FWIW, students, like adults, can taste the difference between the authentic and the inauthentic. The whole society can; that’s why so much money has to be spent on PR and propaganda to ensure “right thinking.”
But students need the perspective of teachers like you to learn how to read first on and then between the lines in order to take good care of themselves.
We are just a bunch of board rats. You are the real deal!
Rock Chalk to you for teaching them HOW to READ, not just look at the words.
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U R right of course. Rome was not built in a day.
But dobber up, sir! TGIF!
We need you at full force!!!
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" My feeling was: Win the league; anything beyond is gravy."
" I do take pride and feel a sense of glory in post-season wins, but tend to see the big tournament as a crapshoot"
“he probably has decided to buy into the Kentucky/Duke flow.”
Excellent post!
I definitely came from your side of the fence. Over time, I’ve balanced out with plenty of HEMs views on March.
I think a blend of you and HEM makes the right approach.
Accepting March as only “gravy” creates lots of issues today. Expectations come at college basketball programs from many directions… fans… media… donors… and last (but not least) recruits. There is no way we can stay in a bubble and only focus on conference play. If we do that, we eventually get eaten away by the growing cancer surrounding our failing March performances.
Flipping sides now… but if we don’t focus on Big 12 play we lose a big chunk of our real reputation for being a powerhouse and letting it all ride on the “crap shoot” in March. Conference play is our opportunity to really show our dominance (and land high seeds in March). And it is our Big 12 play (with Self) that has lifted Kansas back as one of the top blue bloods again, more than our NC in '08.
Flipping sides now… however… if we hadn’t won back with Danny and back in '08, we also wouldn’t be accepted with the same “elitism” we are viewed now.
What I’m getting at is the need for balance. Really… conference and March are both important! We need to fight hard enough in conference not only to win our conference, but to create a margin where we can develop more of our bench for March and also to try other strategies that can help us in March. We can’t really sacrifice our standings in the conference to focus on March. That’s why it is crucial we build a margin in Big 12 standings and also in games. First things first, and winning conference is first!
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“You must have been flipping great fun to play with”
Not always. The issues with other players on the team is a huge factor with every team. Sometimes, in my case, it lead to physical fights in locker rooms and parking lots. Sometimes that helped because it allowed players to vent out everything and later come together in a bar over drinks. The guys I fought with most usually turned out being my best friends. At least they had the balls to stand up and fight! This is one way for players to bond as a team. But it doesn’t always work. Some guys never get away from the “one upsmanship.” Some players hold deep inner resentment.
All the inner workings end up being expressed out on the court during a season. Always.
I see a lot of great things with this team. I do sense a lot of team emotion. These guys defend each other. These guys support each other. The bond is there. I haven’t seen this bond since TRob’s last season.
No one on this team is selfish. They are all willing to give up their own stats or PT for another guy that can help win games.
There is a lot of desire to win with these guys. That’s why we tend to win the close games. And that’s why we really stink when we lose. Turns out it is the will of the team that determines our outcomes… as it should be!
The key now is to get the team to focus on the next game. Then the game after that. etc. Be prepared for every game. Play them one at a time. Build momentum over time… organically.
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The NCAA tournament is really a crap-shoot; I am as loyal KU fan as there is but KU winning in '88 was a fluke. On the other hand, there were other years when it should have won and it did not.
If you shoot pool, you know that players that concentrate on the 9 ball seldom win. Yo have to play the ball at hand and position yourself for the next one, always keeping you eye on the 9 ball, until you get to the 9 ball. If you start concentrating only on the 9 ball you will miss the ball at hand and never get to the 9 ball; this is what all the top players do.
We can extend the analogy to basketball and you play to win the game at hand and then the conference, which in turn will prepare you for the tournament and get you a high seed. Remember when UK was concentrating on the tournament and taking the regular season for granted? They ended up losing to Bobby MO in the first round of the frigging NIT. Nothing prepares you better for the tournament than a good run in your own conference. A few weeks ago Pick Pitino stated that the only reason the tournament is single elimination is to give EVERY team a chance (basically, a crap-shoot); if the format is changed to a best of X, then only the elite teams would have shot. Look at it, last year UConn was not even a top 20 team with 26-8 overall record and 12-6 conference record and with a good run in March ended up winning the title…who would have predicted it. If you don’t win your own conference, how can you expect to win the national title?
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Been there. Done that!
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Am I the only one that does not have a problem with Jamari’s T?
To me, the “T” sent a message to the younger players that the older, bigger players had their backs. Also, the “T” ignited the crowd and the team and it went on 9-0 run that started to set some separation. I am sure Self was upset because it cost 3 points and one foul but I will guess that deep inside he was proud of Mari and how his actions brought the team together.
It reminds of one time when I was called to my son’s principal’s office because he had gotten in a fight at school. As it turned out, there was on older, bigger kid that kept bulling the younger kids; at recess he went after my son and his friends and was told to go away and he finally shoved a girl to the ground. This is when my son turned around and drop the kid with one punch (I had taught him some boxing) and the bully would not get up until a teacher would come to help him. At the principal’s office I told my son that it was not a good thing to punch another kid, all the while I had a big grin on my face. The principal asked my son to leave the office so he could “talk” to me, and then he proceeded to tell me that I should not be smiling because the next time it happened there would be serious consequences for my son. I told him I was grinning because I was proud that my son had not only stood up to the bully but also stood up for his friend, and if it ever happened again he would not be seeing me but my attorney who would be getting his information so we could sue him personally as well the school district for allowing bulling…of course it helped that the parents of several other kids that had been bullied were waiting outside the office. He was never bullied again and at the end of the term I understand the other kid was “asked” to transfer to a different school. My kid was never bullied again and he did not get into any other fights in school.
Afterwards, I had a long talk with my son on this issue and at the end I gave him the same advice Mr. Myagi gave Julie in the Karate Kid…
Julie-san, fighting not good. But if must fight… win.
It still brings a smile to my face when I think about it 20 years later…maybe I am too much old school. I hope Coach Self will also remember it positively in the future.
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“The NCAA tournament is really a crap-shoot; I am as loyal KU fan as there is but KU winning in '88 was a fluke.”
I totally agree… that the tourney is a crap-shoot. But we still can’t discount it and not consider it until March. Any single game in March is a crap-shoot. However, over time March is not a crap-shoot. When you look at the broad stats over time, March is not a crap-shoot. Kentucky winning all those championships wasn’t a crap-shoot, neither are ours.
You have to build enough structure to win in March. That doesn’t mean you win every game in March. As you said, it is a crap-shoot. But you need to put yourself into position to win in March. By doing that, over time, you will show positive results. Any fan thinking his team is going to win out in March every year is delusional.
Some of the focus on March has to happen before March. You can’t go into March with an inexperienced bench and expect to win. By putting some focus on March before March you open yourself up to better things happening in March. That still doesn’t mean it isn’t a crap-shoot. It is!
There is a reason why many of the blue blood programs have the most tournament wins. They have more of the pieces in place to win in March. Doesn’t mean a blue blood program wins this March. However… it is more likely a blue blood program wins it. For many reasons, including having a certain degree of focus on March before March. That is a big part of UCONN’s success. Here is an example of a non-blue blood program piercing through to victories in March. Often times, they can’t even win their conference but win out in March. How is that so? This is one of the teams that puts a great deal of focus on March, and it has been an effective strategy to lifting their program all around. It has helped them land top guards, and guards is their focus. That’s part of their March strategy.
“Am I the only one that does not have a problem with Jamari’s T?”
I see both sides to that coin. He doesn’t need to demonstrate the lack of discipline all the time. But what he did was put a rubber stamp on this season that he and Cliff have everyone’s back.
We needed that T. We needed someone besides Self having to be the one that shows fight. We need that to soak in to players like Perry. That should have been Perry. But just this once, and perhaps one more time later if the team needs the reinforcement again.
You can’t let any opposing player push around one of your players. That sinks in the subconscious. It’s the start of a subordinate role, something you never want to get into with your foes, unless it is them caving in!
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@JayHawkFanToo good story! I’m not sure what words came out of Mari’s mouth, but can guess. The bad thing was Mari got in foul trouble and had limited minutes.
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1 “T”, 3 ft by the Smurf on Steroids - Part Deux, 1 foul on Jamari that limited playing time - COSTLY
Change in momentum and gain in team chemistry -** PRICELESS**
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“Julie-san, fighting not good. But if must fight… win.”
Amen to that!
I was a big kid as a preteen. Kids started picking on me. Calling me racial slurs. Every time a kid did that, I beat him up! I didn’t have to beat up too many kids before they stopped calling me names. From that point forward, I had earned respect and I was rarely challenged. I also stuck up for kids that were teamed up on. Sometimes I felt like a kid cop.
There was one kid that was known as the biggest bully around. He stole my bike, which was his big mistake. Turned out to be the best thing he ever did! What that kid didn’t know was that theft represented the 5th time my bike was stolen! I was in no mood to settle for a conversation about getting my bike back.
When I found out the kid had stole my bike, I marched to his house and I kicked the crap out of him! He had never experienced a whooping! His mother saw it all and came out to confront me. I told her the reason I gave him a smack-down was because he stole my bike (as I gathered my bike and left). She didn’t say a word and looked on.
Later, at a HS reunion, that kid came up and thanked me. He was a horrible bully until that point, and after his whooping he realized just how bad he was victimizing other kids so he stopped. Actually turned the other direction and started standing up for victims.
Every kid doesn’t learn from these experiences… but many do. I had to learn my lessons, too… I was just fortunate enough to learn it early on.
This is an area I target Perry.
The real lesson is that we are all vulnerable. We all have to fight for what we get because others are there to take things away from us if we don’t; our stuff, dignity, identity, future and safety! You have to build character inside to stand up to the bullies, even if you get your butt kicked! Know that it is a lesson and will make you stronger. But don’t back down! Any push coming my way and I’ll push back harder! (exceptions being when someone has a gun!)
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@drgnslayr said:
(exceptions being when someone has a gun!)
Julie-san, fighting not good, But if must fight…win (exception being gun toting psychopath, then run like hell at 45 degree angles!)
Note: that was an allusion to your 45 degree angle of escape comment awhile back, if the evil of football has not robbed that post from your memory banks.
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Ah, I am feeling a mighty fine game day brewing, how about you?
Be sure to brew up a batch of your best, healthiest juices so that you will be at full strength.
Say, I have noticed you have not come over to JNewell’s live blog to talk up the game in real time.
I believe some of your knowledge would be of assistance during the games.
Might you consider virtual attendance for the ISU contest?
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I can’t watch and chat. Quick thoughts that are written down always get me into trouble. I’ve read some of the dialogue and the anger towards my team, and the increase of people on the chat distract me from biting my lip and throwing things while the game is on. Sometimes, I can’t watch when the team goes south and I switch to the Velocity channel before going back to the DVR and catching up. I have learned over the years when watching Self what he wants the team to do and cringe when it doesn’t happen, knowing the red face that is going to call a time out and chew and chew until we get it right and a smile returns to the master’s face. We each have our own game plan.
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Very Superstitious…
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Some of these people chat.
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@drgnslayr Wow, you are old school.
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@HighEliteMajor I think we’ll have to throw up a ton of perimeter shots - they certainly will be firing away…
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The thing that separates OAD from Old School is the difference between having enough talent to insulate you from hard work, real effort and the concept of improving – every season, every game, every practice, every time you lace 'em up.
In other words, the difference between Carmelo Anthony and Jason Kidd. 'Melo never made a team better – Jason not only made every team he played on better, he also improved every teammate he ever had.
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@wrwlumpy and @drgnslayr
Or at @drgnlumpy
Or wrwslayr
Cue the Twilight Zone music.
I won’t say anything if you don’t.
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Or should I say…
@KU62drgnlumpy…
or
well, like I said…
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How about all of you come on over to @JNewell’s live blog?
Howling!
PHOF
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@JayHawkFanToo Fluke is a little strong. We did after all have the Nations Best Player and the Nations Best Coach! I prefer to call it Karma for 1986, I enjoyed your post. Lots of good points.
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Look at the numbers against the last 3 teams KU played in the tournament.
- KSU loss 72-61 at AFH
- OU loss 74-65 at AFH
- KSU win 64-63 at Ahern
- Duke loss 74-70 at AFH
- OU 95-87 loss at Lloyd Noble Arena
- KSU 69-54 loss at Kemper Arena
KU went 1-5 and the only win was against KSU by 1 point.
KU went to the tournament unranked (outside top 25) and was unranked since the 9th week of the season and had a 21-11 record and a #6 seed. The 11 losses are the most ever by a champion. KU was not expected to go past the second round.
At the tournament
- KSU 71-58 win - Elite 8
- Duke 66-59 win - Final Four
- OU 83-79 win - Championship game
When you look at the numbers above, it makes you realize how much of an improbable run KU had in '88 on its way to the Championship.
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@JayHawkFanToo I like your post. I said Karma for 1986. I stand by that. I am in agreement with you, just not to that extent. Sure we lost 5 of the 6 games that you mentioned. Does playing that type of schedule make you better? Sure it does. We not only benefitted from playing that schedule, it also contributed to everyone knowing their role and accepting their role. It’s not a fluke when you have the best player in the country and the best coach in the country. KSU, Duke, and OU were all afforded the opportunity to put Kansas out of the tournament, and they didn’t get it done. Kansas put up 50 points that OU team in the first half. No one could have predicted that. It’s not a fluke when you go out on the biggest stage and get it done. I understand what you are saying, and I appreciate it. I am just not in full agreement.
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@JayHawkFanToo I hear you on the “T” and firing the crowd up. Standing up for your team is a good thing. But, I’m sure Self would say he should be the one to decide when a “T” is good for the cause and not the players…and I would have to say I believe the same thing. But, I agree, that one was not all bad!
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I absolutely see your point. Mine was more an illustration of how much of crap shoot the NCAA tournament is. Logic would dictate that KU had a slim to none chance of winning and it did; however, there were several years when KU had a great chance of winning and did not. Had the tournament been a best of X games, KU does not win in '88 but likely wins in others. This is why, like many others in this forum, I value the conference title as much as the national title since it implies continues excellence rather than a lucky/karma-ic run in March.
In another thread there is a link to Bilas article that makes some good points and I elaborate on those when I get to my full size keyboard…too much work on a tablet.
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I see your point; however, I cannot see any situation where Coach Self would ask a player to get a “T,” none whatsoever. If there is a situation where a point need to be made to the refs, he would do it himself and not ask a player…isn’t it his job to do this? In fact, many time coaches will do just this to fire up their teams. A heat of the battle “T” that fires up the team and the crowd and enhances team chemistry is not so bad…just my opinion, but then, I tend to be old school…
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@JayHawkFanToo Oh, I agree…Self would get the “T” on himself.
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@JayHawkFanToo We are on the same page. I believe the NCAA Tournament in it’s current format is more luck than skill. Too many teams that don’t deserve to be there end up in the tournament.
