GU Intel Estimate
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Seven games in and GU is 5-2.
Rotation: 9
Defense: positively Selfian numbers. They allow opponents to make only 38% of FGAs and hold them to a paltry 27% from trey.
Rebounding: GU outrebounds opponents +5 per game overall and are grabbing a ton of their own misses.
Offense: lots of inside scoring at a 50% clip. Lots of FTs but only make 67%. They take about 14 treys and only make 35%.
Height and Size Inside: They start a behemoth post and a defensive specialist 4. Joshua Smith, all 6-10 and 350 pounds, starts and averages 22mpg, 12ppg, and 7rpg. Paul White also starts at 6-8 and 228 doesn’t rebound much, only scores 7ppg, but is a strong defender, and will step out and take 1 or two treys per game and make 50%. . 6-9 220 Aaron Copeland is the first big off the bench. 6-9 239 Michael Hopkins is the second big off the bench and he can put a hurt on you.
Height and Size Outside: They start 3 big strong lockdown combos on the perimeter. 6-3 214 Smith-Rivera is their leading scorer at 14.4ppg in 30mpg. He is a weak trifectate, but an 89% FT shooter. 6-5 215 Frosh LJ Peak has no trey but can guard and get to the rim. 6-5 220 Jabril Trawick also has no trey.
Summary: GU is smash mouth style, run the modified Princeton, and get it into the super tanker in the middle. John Thompson 2.0 has basically said to hell with good 3pt shooting outside. They take a lot of treys probably because teams have to triple his center. His three combos outside guard well and shoot the trey poorly, but shoot it nonetheless. He is betting on ferocious defense. Reboudning is a strength and offensive rebounding is a long suit. The name of the GU game is body you and wear you down with a 9 man rotation playing tough defense until you just get tired of the beating and go home.
Forecast: The KU perimeter guys are not going to like the Georgetown experience, even though they are way better shooters and likely quicker than the GU combos. Frank and Devonte in particular are going to experience their first real case of smash mouth. Svi also will find it a new experience. And all will have to contend with the frequent screening. Self will likely let them switch some this game. But the game will be decided inside. and on the glass. GU could keep KU off the glass for an entire game unless KU is really amped. And this seems a terrible game for Mickelson to come out of mothballs for, but with Jamari in dry dock, and XTReme Muscle the coin of the realm, there is a good chance that both Cliff and Landen will get in foul trouble soon, which would seem to force Self to go with Oubre at the 4 plus some Mickelson at the five. I thought Florida was too big and strong for KU. I still think they were. Somehow KU beat them. I still haven’t figured out how. Even though GU sucks from trey, I don’t see how KU can beat GU either. Too much size inside to score on much, or to get many rebounds. And GU guards big enough to keep our short guards off the glass and too quick for our long guards. And yet Self will outcoach John Thompson 2.0 some. If I were Self I would plan on playing Perry at the 5 a lot and have him step out for 5-8 treys. Then I would go long at the wings with Svi and Brannen as worked a few games back. KU probably cannot outbound GU, so it has to try to outshoot them. Given how bad GU is from outside, it could be done. But I see KU going down on the road without Traylor by 10.
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@jaybate-1.0 concerned about franks ankle! If you have Perry at 5, is he going to guard smith?
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I thought we covered this on Friday…sigh. Ok, KU beats G-town, and their tubby center by 7 or 8. We’ll also beat Utah as well. Its what we do. It’s who we are. We have trouble with speedy, hot shooting guards, not immobile blobs in the middle.
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Yep. Thinking here is we have no one that can play Smith straight up, or even double him, and keep him from a spot, or from backing down, so go small and force him to chase on defense and wear him out. Make him move his lard. Then double and triple him and dare them to beat us outside.
Key match will be if we can shut off Smith-Riviera. If we can do that and stay even on the boards we can win. Not if not. Also their action and penetration could foul us up.
This morning I feel more like we could win, because they are so one dimensionally defensive. But they are strong where we are strong and strong where we are not.
This should be an outside in game if ever there were one.
Now I’m saying GU by 5, if KU cold, KU by 5 if KU were hot.
Svi and Brannen could have trouble with the action, but we need their guns.
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I watched the GU/Towson game. Smith likes to get the ball and BACK BUTT his way close for a Barkley type move. Lucas handled this well against Florida’s big. This will work for us if the Refs call the same fouls against the offense for the repeated BUTTING. Coach said on his radio show that our Big’s will have to front him and not let him get the ball.
My daughter who lives in DC predicts that there will be more KU fans at this game than Hoyas.
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I live in DC and I am not real sure about that. There will be a huge KU contingent, but the Hoyas have a huge following here. I am NOT going to the game, because I refuse to spend $100 and sit in the top level of the Phone Booth (aka Verizon Center). I sat up there once for a hockey game and will never do it again. Specially after paying $100.
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We have to use Lucas and Alexander on Smith. Perry’s finesse won’t work on a guy that size, and will likely result in either lots of easy buckets or Perry getting into foul trouble. Neither of those outcomes is good for KU.
One of our wings - Selden, Greene, Svi, Oubre - needs to have a big game here. We can’t dominate GU inside because they will be so physical with us. We can’t depend on our smaller guards ability to slash. That will leave it up to the wings to do the damage. Self should think about playing three of his wing guys around Alexander with one of the PG’s. Force GU to send a big away from the lane to open things up and let the Hawks use their speed/quickness advantage.
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But they do have a strong speedy guard named Smith-Rivera and 350 pounds in the post is a lot to back down with.
There weakness is trey shooting, which should let us help a lot.
Their strength is rebounding and FG% inside. Lots of stick backs. If KU can control Smith-Rivera and eliminate the stick backs, then KU can win. But at the ends of both halves, unless KU has done a lot of hurry down court, long passing, and made the packed in lard post run, it will be tough to do both.
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@jaybate-1.0 afraid frank will not be full speed. Think graham can handle it?
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Josh Smith avg’s over 3 Fouls a game. It’s simple get him into early foul trouble. It feels like the 15th time we’ve played this Offensive Lineman. He’s gotten in foul trouble previous tries against us. Attack him get his quick 2 and watch him sit on the sideline.
If he doesn’t get in foul trouble then will need great effort from Lucas and Cliff. Lucas needs to hold off on the early fouls in this one so that Cliff isn’t stuck by himself trying to guard him. Looks like we will need Hunter to step up with the opportunity.
We killed this same Georgetown team last year with basically the same team minus a few talented freshman. I understand that this is a true road game and Georgetown has played decent so far this year. If we play our game we should be able to grind out a win. 2 point teams rarely beat KU, and it will take all facets of the game for KU to collapse to not win.
Obviously a lot rides on Mason’s ability with the ankle. If it was so serious, he wouldn’t have grinded out the end of the Florida game. With 4 days of rehab should help him play at close to 100%. I liked the way Graham played in the last game staying aggressive. Just like any game, controlling the boards, hitting your freebie’s, limited dumb turnovers and of course making enough shots will win the game for us. It would give us even more confidence if we can get a road win so that Saturday’s game in the Sprint Center isn’t a bounce back game
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Smith had two flagrant fouls called against him for leading with the elbow during the Florida game. Like @jaybate-1.0 said, have him chase his player on defense and stand your ground and draw fouls when he tries to drive on offense; at 350 pounds his endurance/stamina cannot be that good.
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Graham will give up a lot of muscle to all three starting combos on GU, but Graham showed well against Florida on the defense, and so I reckon he will fare ok against Smith-Riviera, but have a few issues inside with the 6-5 guys that greatly out reach and outweigh him.
Frankly, my biggest concern is GU’s ability to take away our perimeter rebounding that we have relied on significantly in some games recently. I don’t think GU will be easy for us to rebound inside against even when Smith sits to rest his girth, or as others have pointed out, to sit from fouls.
But here’s the thing: KU has lots of good scorers and GU does not.
If we can defend them some, and rebound some, our scoring ought to carry the day.
Self has one other possible weapon in his quiver no one has mentioned. Going with the long transept game he had to abandon against Florida. Svi and Green should be tried in tandem at the 5 minute mark, if Svi loses his starting job to Devonte. The two 6-5 Combos that GU starts might be left in at the 5 minute mark. And that could be a good time to come with long wings that can shoot the trey; then tell Frank, or Devonte, or Wayne, which ever is at the point at that time, to drive the paint hard to pressure GU’s second string bigs and kick out to our tall wings to gun some treys.
But…
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@jaybate-1.0 concerned franks ankle will slow him down
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When we’ve gone to our bench in the first half that hasn’t seemed to work very well when we sub 3-4 starters out at a time. Depending on game flow, I’ve been waiting for Self to keep Selden and Ellis on the floor and then sub out a wing, or Cliff, or graham for Mason but not all at once.
I’m assuming if Lucas doesn’t pick up 2 cheap fouls in the first 4 minutes that Cliff, Greene, and Graham will be the first 3 off the bench. Mason & Graham looked very good out there against Florida while pushing Selden to the 3. I believe if Selden shoots anywhere near the way he did against Florida we won’t be beaten. When he’s on we don’t generally lose.
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@BeddieKU23 but if he’s not consistent, maybe someone else will step up, Greene, Oubre?
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@Crimsonorblue22 I think Devonte will be excellent.
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@JayHawkFanToo @jaybate-1.0 Have Josh Smith chase the guy he’s defending?
Guys, guys … that would be game planning. Come on, this isn’t football. You don’t change what you do based on the opponent.
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@jaybate-1.0 You know I love your posts - I just disagree with your predictions.You’re great at analysis, and not so good at predictions…lol. Love ya, man!!!
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@JayHawkFanToo do they ever zone it up?
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I really have not seem them much this year, mostly read summaries of their games. I don’t believe they use zone although in their situation it would make sense since it might keep Smith from chasing a mobile player and keep him parked around the basket.
Perhaps it would make sense to send a mobile big against him and have him pull to the outside; if Smith chases him, he will tire pretty quickly and if he doesn’t then the wide open mid-range shot is available. If this works and KU starts scoring then they might switch to zone and KU would have to depend on the long range shooters to break the zone or the quick guards to penetrate and either score or kick the ball out to open players. I am sure Coach Self will have the right plan.
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@JayHawkFanToo This is a game where I would like to see KU play some zone. I know Bill typically only plays zone or some form of trash D box and 1 when we are down in March (UNC 2012) but I wish we did it more. Seems like a good team to play zone against. They are huge inside and can’t shoot. Not sure why we wouldn’t play a bit of zone to keep Cliff and Landen out of foul trouble with Jamari out of the game and Perry being horribly undersized to guard Smith. Also not sure why I am wasting my time typing this as Bill Self does not play zone.
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@Kong My daughter in DC called to tell me she was pregnant for the first time at age 37 and in the next sentence she told me she got tickets to the sold out game. She will be sitting in the same nose bleed seats you talked about. At least she got her priorities straight. She is thin now and will fit in the seats, but I told her to take binoculars.
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@wrwlumpy Congratulations!
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Wait… the first time ever or just the first time at age 37??? ha ha Kongrats on the future Jayhawk!
It should be a fun time at the game. Tell her to yell for all of us not in attendance!
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Hope springs eternal.
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Holy cow, Lump, C-O-N-G-R-A-T-U-L-A-T-I-O-N-S-!!!
It is now your official duty to spoil the child and return to the parents, whenever it is no longer fun to spoil the child.
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@wrwlumpy congrats, and a new Jayhawk is born!!! (Soon)
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@wrwlumpy - So what will the grandkid call you? Combine Grandpa and Lumpy – you get Grumpy. Maybe not.
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At age 67 I become a grandfather for the first time. Just call me happy.
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Congrats. Grandchildren are a lot more fun that children, all the fun and no responsibility; you spoil them and then you send them home to their parents…win-win.
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Coach Self has indicated many times, and I believe most top coaches agree, that of you have the right players, the man to man defense is much better that zone, which is used when you either don’t have the talent, or depth since it requires less physical effort. Some coaches use the zone as a way to give players a rest during the game.
KU has always ranked near the top in defense year in and year out, so obviously Coach Self is doing something right. As the expression goes…you play to your strengths…and KU’s strength is and has always been (under Self) tough man to man defense. Now, I would not mind KU playing a little zone here and there just to confuse the opponent but why change something that works? BTW, last year was an unusual year when the new contact rules inordinately penalized teams that played tough man to man defense, such as KU, and yet KU still finished ranked in the top two in defense in the conference. If you have been watching KU you have seen how the defense is gradually getting better and better, even against teams like UK, where the defense was not great but not bad either (only second game of the season) and the main problem was the offense. who could not score. Just my opinion and I could be wrong
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KU _ 2 point underdog. The Kentucky game follows us all the way to the Vegas odds makers.
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I will take KU and 2 points…
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Michigan State coached by Jud Heathcote and starting Magic Johnson at point guard and Clark Kellogg at power forward played a 1-3-1 zone and won a ring.
The only thing worse than fixed fortifications is fixed thinking.
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The best players in the best fitting system always beat the best players in an ill-fitting system.
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Wooden played a m2m and a 3/4 court 2-2-1 zone press and won more rings than any two coaches that have believed that pressing was not the best way to play.
Consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds.
Ideology is the hobgoblin of the brain dead.
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The box is best lived outside of.
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And…???
I did not say you could not be successful playing zone, did I?
You just can’t help yourself…can you?
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Oubre is showing up! I have a new nickname for him…
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Frank looks different.
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Smith thinks Lucas is a punk. Lucas thinks Smith is a punk.
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@jaybate-1.0 Clark Kellogg? You mean Greg Kelser? Jay Vincent?
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@wrwlumpy I noticed that on TV.
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Oh, my, GOD!!! Yes, Kelser. Thx for the assist.
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No, I can never help myself where you are concerned.
I am too busy helping you.
I love you.
Howling!
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Would you like me to post another pretty picture for you? Maybe I can post a virtual red laser dot and you can chase up and down the page…
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No. I want you to compose five rhyming poems of six quatrains each. Three with perfect rhymes. Two with off rhymes.
Now hurry.
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@wrwlumpy who is that?
