Recruting Update or What I don't yet know that I don't know
-
@konkeyDong I asked this question before. Do you think Cliff declares for the draft in the spring? What about Oubre? If neither of those two bail for the League next spring, then we could pretty much have everyone back. The only other guy I think wouldn’t be back might be Selden if he gets his shot back…consistently. I realize its all speculation at this point but there are peeps on here that know a heck of a lot more about basketball than I do. Im guessing that Cliff is gone and Oubre is back. Which means we will need someone like Bragg and Diallo.
-
Realistically, who is going to the NBA after this season? or perhaps the better question should be who will be ready for the NBA after this season? Based on what I have seen to date, my answer to the second question would be…none.
If this is the case, and all players return what is the scholarship situation? Currently there 15 players listed.
Garret is a senior and will be gone, 14 eligible players left.
Self and Manning not using scholarship, 12 eligible players left and one scholarship available.
Pollard goes back to walk-on status not using scholarship, 11 eligible players left and two scholarship available.
If no one leaves (or transfers) there would be at most two scholarships available, is this correct or am I missing something?
Now, for every player that leaves or transfers there would an additional scholarship available.
So…who do you all think will leave for the NBA or transfer?
-
@JayHawkFanToo I thought we had one left this season, did pollard get it? If nobody leaves, don’t we still have one? What about Perry? If the draft is weaker, he keeps this pace up, will Self advise him to go?
-
@konkeyDong First of all, great post. Thanks for doing all the legwork on that and for sharing your insights!
@Crimsonorblue22 You bring up something interesting regarding the possibility of Self advising Ellis to turn pro. Part of me wonders if Self actually wants that. I have no doubt that Self appreciates what Perry brings in terms of scoring and versatility, but because he’s a bit undersized, because he’s more of a finesse player, because he’s a mediocre-at-best defender, because he’s a mediocre-to-above-average-at-best rebounder, I wonder if Self would prefer to usher him off to the league and free up those minutes for one of these incoming recruits. I don’t know anything about the 2016 recruiting class, but I would think that likelihood of him possibly wanting those minutes freed up would increase if the big man prospects are not as enticing next year (when Perry will be a senior) as they are this year.
And I’m not saying this to bash Perry or anything like that; I’m a huge Ellis supporter. But he just doesn’t seem to be a real Self kinda guy, ya know? Anyway, just a thought.
-
@konkeyDong Great stuff. Good post.
-
@icthawkfan316 if he plays all season like he is now, I can’t imagine him wanting to replace w/a better Perry Ellis. Maybe?
-
Wow KD
Great post. I learned a ton-thanks for your post and research.
@ Icthawk
- IMO a good coach doesn’t usher someone out before he is ready to make some room for someone new. I don’t see Self doing this. On the,other hand is someone needs to be pushed out of the nest because he is ready to fly that is something else. My best guess is Self told BMAC and Embid he would love them to stay. But the circumstances for them as individuals meant they should go for the money. JMO.
-
If you see my post, the team is allowed 13 scholarships. I am pretty sure that all players except Self and Manning are on scholarships. I think Garret might have gotten Whites scholarship and I am going to guess that Frankamp scholarship went to Pollard; no sense in leaving one unused. It is possible that technically Frankamp might still have one until the end of the semester since I believe scholarship are assigned before the semester. This is why Conner waited until his tuition and fees were paid before announcing he was leaving the team; I will guess that he is no longer living with the other Athletes? It might be somewhat weird/uncomfortable if he was still there.
-
It has always been my opinion that Perry will leave after he gets his degree since he is an outstanding student and his family has been supportive. Given his scholastic history, It is very possible that he can graduate in 3 years.
I am not sure that you can get a freshman OAD that would performs at the level of a senior Perry Ellis.
-
@JayHawkFanToo I have no idea about CF’s. I thought we had an extra for that transfer that ran off in Denver. I don’t know! Somebody will know.
-
13 scholarships available,
We know for sure these 11 players have scholarships:
- 0 Frank Mason III
- 1 Wayne Selden Jr.
- 2 Cliff Alexander
- 4 Devonte’ Graham
- 10 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
- 12 Kelly Oubre, Jr.
- 14 Brannen Greene
- 31 Jamari Traylor
- 33 Landen Lucas
- 34 Perry Ellis
- 42 Hunter Mickelson
2 out of these 4 players probably have the other 2 scholarships
- 5 Evan Manning
- 11 Tyler Self
- 15 Christian Garrett
- 22 Josh Pollard
As I indicated I believe Garret was given White’s and the remaining one (Frankamp) was either given to Pollard or is still available.
-
@JayHawkFanToo looks right to me, hopefully pollard will get the next semester.
-
We have a new Bball dorm set to open in a couple of years. It’s flipping awesome, and it will go a long way to helping us out. I think we wil be fine,
-
@HighEliteMajor Recruiting Apocalypse is a real possibility, but I don’t think a very likely one. The nightmare scenario is Perry, Wayne, and Cliff build their stock high enough to come out, Oubre comes out against any common sense (like Selby did), and we’re left holding the bag when every recruiting battle breaks toward UK or a West Coast school. I think the guards would be fine (although we’d be thin), but Mickelson’s shown no progress since UArk and I’m thinking he’ll ultimately be a bust for us. The even worse nightmare is that the ‘P’ word becomes the standard and it’s basically everyone else picking over UKs leftovers even more so than that’s a reality today.
@Lulufulu I think Cliff goes and Oubre stays. I think Cliff will project late lotto to late 1st round and be well advised to take his chances while he can 'cause undersized 4s never improve their draft stock by coming back. If that happens, I expect we sign Diallo.
@JayHawkFanToo Being NBA ready has never stopped anyone from leaving (don’t make me mention Selby twice in one post). The draft is all about boom/bust, and every GM thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room. As you mentioned, we have 2 schollies available and Self wants to sign 3 guys. I’m optimistic about Selden righting his ship and getting done this year along with Cliff, so my guess is we’ll have 4 to give and use only 2 or 3. 11 seems like the ideal size for a team anyway, as long as you’ve got it spaced correctly. Hope that’s how it breaks.
-
@Crimsonorblue22 Well it depends on how he views next season and what the team will need.
First off, let me say that whenever Ellis leaves he will be missed. As I stated following the Orlando Classic, the offense ran through him and looked poor otherwise. And obviously he does a lot of things right that an incoming freshman will struggle with out of the box, much like Ellis did in his freshman campaign.
That being said, I can see a big picture scenario where Self might think the grass will be greener with someone else. How bad does the UK beatdown stick in his craw? They will surely either bring back a couple of their bigs and/or bring in new ones. Might Self think that he might be better off replacing Ellis, who has trouble finishing against height & length (see Stanford, UK games), and as I previously mentioned is not a great defender or rebounder? If Self could bring in someone 6’10" or taller, I could see the trade-off at least intriguing him. And I’ve always thought that the loss to UK’s OADs in the 2012 title game was at least partially the cause of his shift in recruiting philosophy regarding OADs, so there is a precedent here.
@JayHawkFanToo I agree that overall a freshman will not play to the level of a senior Perry Ellis. But they might defend better than him. Or rebound. Again, it could just be that Self doesn’t think he could win it all with a smallish front court, so he ushers off Perry. Or he could do the same to Cliff. The point is, I could see him trying to shake up the roster if he feels he needs to add height but can’t do so without someone leaving because recruits would be scared off by all of the returning minutes otherwise. It might be a moot point, as Cliff could opt to leave anyway. But in a world where both are set to return, we won’t have a many minutes in the post to entice recruits, and it was just something that crossed my mind.
-
@konkeyDong I have a bone to pick with you. --------------- Where the hell have you been???
Love your comments.Don’t stay away so long. Besides we need somebody to keep HEM and Jaybate in Check. b)
-
I think you are selling Perry well short. By all account in his more recent games Perry has been a lot better on defense and he is also leading the team in rebounds with 7 rpgs, as comparison, Marcus Morris averaged 7.6 rpg in his best year, Withey averaged 6.7 rpg as junior and Embiid averaged 8.0 rpg in his only season, so 7.0 rpg seems like a pretty decent rebounder for his position.
-
Very, very solid post. I’d put your analysis far above anything on the wire out there.
I think you have the %s realistic and accurate.
I know we are pushing for Maker, because Maker is the next Wiggins. He’s the guy that is going to attract the cameras. He’s a guy that can help KU’s image.
The reason why we’ve been pushing on athletic 3s is the benefit of having Wiggins. Wiggins made it easy to sign Kelly. And if Kelly finally starts to perform, he and Wigs will help us land the next athletic 3. We (temporarily) have street cred at the 3.
Back to Maker. Our offensive sets this year are shifting away from the traditional hi/lo. This is our only chance to land a player like Maker. Maker will not attend a school where he is forced to play in the tiny space of the low post, with his plays coming from “back to the basket.” Maker has ball skills, and even has some accuracy on his perimeter shot. He is frail. He is more than a project for Hudy. Even though Maker may not see the value of it, he should be shown how much Hudy can help him on the next level. It’s more than just putting weight on his frame. It’s about solidifying his body to prepare himself for the rigors of the league. He needs that desperately.
We better get used to Perry popping 3s. It is not only part of our new offense, it is part of the recruiting effort for Maker. A big reason we wanted Turner was to develop him into a KD kind of player… the same kind of player Maker wants to be. Turner was going to help us land Maker. That didn’t happen because we had no track record of playing outside the hi/lo. This year Self is going to prove that he can break free of the hi/lo. It doesn’t mean we will totally abandon it. We just won’t be forcing that strategy, especially when we are playing the wrong teams. I know I have been hard on Perry since he has been at Kansas, because he didn’t play tough enough. But by the time Perry leaves Kansas, he will have given a lot more to Kansas basketball than most people realize. He’s going to nail a bunch of 3s this year. He’s worked diligently on his long ball all summer. He is going to help us recruit the future big men… the bigs that can handle the ball and don’t want to be stuck playing in the low post. There are a bunch of them coming up the system now. We land Maker, he becomes the next Wigs, and we continue to land the future big men.
Zim is a good catch, too. He is extremely capable and athletic. But I’m not sure he stands out for the media like Thon does. I’d like to see us land both of these guys. I’m not sure they will be in the same class, though. But imagine having twin towers who can play all over the offensive side of the ball? Yeah… bring on Kentucky! TIme for a pay back!
-
@konkeyDong I hope everyone comes back. I want this group to win a title together. I think they still can even if Alexander declares.
-
@icthawkfan316 But KU did win it all with a smallish front court. Shady and Dblock werent much bigger than what we have now. They were loads tougher though.
-
A great big brawny, broad shouldered, short necked, long armed, cut pecked, washboard bellied, rip-thighed, high twitch-calved, grape fruit hung post. Congrats.
At the end, I don’t feel any one or two of them can get us to ring land…in one year.
Next: you pose a good question: Why does Self recruit the super 3s so hard and effectively? i don’t know…yet, but the truth will out.
The bigger question is: why, if Self has no bigs, aren’t bigs beating a path to the door of Big Man U for PT?
Does anyone think that domestic recruiting is an unstacked PetroShoeco deck now?
Next: will Fratello/Hill deliver overseas again?
-
Very good Analysis KonkeyDong.
Usually we at least have 1 recruit on board so this is unusual we’ve hit December with nobody on board and nobody a clear lock. The biggest issue I’ve seen with a lot of the players we’ve recruited is they are all looking at package deals. Jones & Okafor from Duke have made it the “cool things to do”. You hear more and more about kids wanting to play together now than ever.
Kids have also realized they have the most leverage in holding out til Spring. With Roster turnover/transfers and Coaching changes unless you know for sure none of those are likely why would a top recruit sign early and risk having to do it all over if something happened. Heck they don’t even need to sign,they can hold out on just signing financial aid papers. As a High Schooler I can see why, as a KU fan it drives us crazy on the waiting game.
The other issue is that basically everyone is waiting on UK’s Platoon System and how much Roster turnover they will have at the end of the season. I say it’s likely all of their 6 big men could go Pro. It would be a huge help to our recruiting chances with Diallo, Bragg, Zimmerman, Maker (if re-classifies) if at least 3 of them come back. Right now the most likely candidates to come back would be Lee, Lyles, Poythress. Towns is top 10 prospect, Stein and Johnson have played at a high level worthy of Lottery discussion. The hype left Poythress after his Freshman yr, Lyles is good but what position will he play in NBA, and Lee gets the least PT and would stand best to keep developing.
6 games in I can’t see Kansas having major roster turnover and certainly not a coaching change. Transfers maybe, but I don’t see anyone who would be a serious candidate for that right now. We could get everyone back (unlikely) We could lose just Alexander (likely) We could lose Perry, Cliff, Wayne, Kelly (only if the later 2 improve exponentially).
Jaylen Brown: I’m thinking the only way we can get him is if Wayne or Kelly go pro. Definitely the best prospect left on the board.
Dorsey: I think ends up out West and it’s a real possibility that him and Rabb could end up at Cal. If Wayne left its the only way I could see him coming east.
Rabb: Would be a great get but I’m just not sold on his interest. Maybe if Zimm. committed he could draw Rabb as well as they are HS teammates and AAU buddies.
Zimmerman: I think we are the leaders but UK and UCLA will fight us to the end.
Diallo: Basically between us, hometown St. Johns, and UK. His recruitment has been very quiet. Definitely would be the rim protector we need.
Bragg: As stated Kansas or Kentucky but UCLA has hung around as well. I will be pissed if we lose out on him because he would the perfect fit for Self.
Maker: Who knows until January what he will do. Ingram won’t be leaving North Carolina. Swanigan: We didn’t make his final list I believe. Lovett: No reason to get a PG in this class not unless he was a certainty to RS.
I’ve wanted Bragg, Diallo, and Brown as the dream class. It’s likely we will have 3-4 Scholly’s to give. Brown would be the perfect Combo SG/SF. He can do everything. Likely losing Cliff and getting Diallo and Bragg would be the perfect 1-2 punch to infuse with Perry,Lucas and Hunter.
-
"Kids have also realized they have the most leverage in holding out til Spring. With Roster turnover/transfers and Coaching changes unless you know for sure none of those are likely why would a top recruit sign early and risk having to do it all over if something happened. Heck they don’t even need to sign,they can hold out on just signing financial aid papers. As a High Schooler I can see why, as a KU fan it drives us crazy on the waiting game. "
That is really it, in a nutshell.
It really doesn’t benefit these kids if they sign early… or even sign a LOI, period. The smart thing for elite talent is to just wait and sign their financial aid package.
Things happen too fast in D1. Coaches are suddenly gone. Players are signed that ripple PT with other signed talent. Or sometimes players and coaches just get off on the wrong foot, even before the players come to town.
The bad thing is that many universities won’t easily let a player out of his LOI, and most players don’t have the capability to challenge it.
-
Definitely agree about its hard for players to fight schools over LOI’s. Our own Devonte Graham probably wouldn’t be at Kansas if it wasn’t for that case.
Others that come to my mind were Uthoff now at Iowa when he was at Wisconsin. Bo Ryan took a lot of heat over him. Also Saint Joe’s had an incident in not letting a kid play somewhere else. The cases are endless but they have definitely drove up the cases of kids holding out because its the only way for them to hold the keys for themselves in case something goes wrong.
At KU, recruiting the best is the product of our environment. The top kids get the extended exposure by waiting to decide by getting their 5 minutes of fame on ESPN plus all the talk of them. Hopefully we have good fortune again this year on the recruiting front. We’ve been the kings of late 4th quarter (spring recruiting)
-
Mickelson wanted out of Arkansas when Anderson came in and they would not let him off and ended up staying 2 years.
-
Not to be a wet blanket at this party, but didn’t I read/hear of a possible league lockout in the 2015/2016 time frame? I could be wrong since I’m not big on the league. Wouldn’t walk across the street for courtside seats.
