HCBS TALKS ABOUT THE TEAM! STARTS AT THE 5MIN MARK
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@jaybate-1.0 Can you clarify? Why do you think Graham’s role is connected to a 7 man rotation, if I’m reading that right?
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Let us first dispense with the misrepresentation that politics are being discussed by anyone other than perhaps you.
Next, let us refocus on your appeal to authority in Rummie and introduction of strategic Rummie think to the thread.
My points are these:
1.) appeals to authority whether logically flawed, or not, are undermined if the authority has not had much success; and
2.) analyzing KU BASKETBALL through the logic of strategic Rummie think risks analytic outcomes that might be the strategic basketball equivalent of Afghanistan and Iraq, not the political equivalents.
Regarding number 2, I don’t want KU basketball viewed through the lens of strategic Rummie think, because I don’t want KU BASKETBALL having resulting analyses equivalent to those that precipitated Afghanistan and Iraq.
This is NOT POLITICAL discourse.
This is strategic discourse.
Rock Chalk!
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Not to interrupt a good fight, but I noticed Devonte Graham was recognized as the top Jayhawk in leadership skills during the two day marine boot camp called The Program ( forgive my sentence structure- it needs TLC). Are you paying attention, Frank?
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@KUSTEVE I saw that too. That’s what he was brought here for, to be the true point guard, the real leader of the team. Pretty cool that he’s given such recognition before even playing his first game. Bodes well for things to come.
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@HighEliteMajor @HighEliteMajor
I suspect Self thinks there is a significant chance that either FM or CF will not meet minimum standards, or that the team will have to play with only one short guard in the rotation for defensive reasons. In either case, he will be looking at a 7 instead of 8 man rotation, or alternatively an 8 instead of 9 man rotation. It would mean one of either FM or CF has gotten the nod and the other likely will not be viewed as part of the future of KU BALL this year, or after. That spells transfer.
Why 7?
Without both short guards cutting it, I doubt there are 8 guys or more on this team that can play at a high D1 level this season; that is, without serious drop off in team efficiency, when subbed. And Self shows again and again that he would rather go 7 than 8, or 8 than 9, rather than tolerate a big drop off in team efficiency.
Count up who should reasonably be expected to rotate without major fall off in efficiency by late in the season.
Inside: Perry, Traylor, Mickelson, Alexander.
Outside: Oubre, Selden
That is 6 if alexander can adjust.
On bubble: Mason, Conner, Graham, Greene
Mason has the athleticism but skills are in question and size limits him to PG. If he can’t make the easy plays his second year his shelf life is short.
Conner has skill but athleticism is in question and size limits him to PG. If he can’t get his 3pt % up and guard his second season, his shelf life is short.
Graham has size and athleticism are pluses, but no experience and shooting skill is in question. But he has the length that makes developing him two seasons worth it.
Greene–Self hates wild hairs. Greene was one. Wild hairs often aren’t ready till junior season. EJ wasn’t. Travis needed 3 seasons. Odds are Greene won’t be ready for March, but I think he will have to rotate awhile, because Oubre is green. But as Oubre matures, Self can sit Greene, or if Oubre fails to adapt, greene might with slim probability marginalize Oubre.
So if Green comes around, that’s 7, and then you really only need one of the two short guards for 35 mpg and that’s 8. And who does Self develop with the 5 mpg? I think it would be Devonte, if he equals the others, because he offers more years and size.
But a significant possibility is this:
Green is still too wild.
One of the two short guards can’t cut it.
That’s 7 with Devonte backing up 5 mpg.
P.S.: Landen just maybe a victim of numbers and see his time the next year.
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@KUSTEVE That is a pretty interesting item.
I also notice Selden’s quote about the program, “It really built continuity and togetherness that we didn’t have last year.”
I recall a similar quote from someone similar to that back a few months ago.
What does that say? My speculation – we received no leadership from the presumptive leader, Naadir Tharpe. Self battled a pouting Tharpe two straight seasons. A rudderless ship simply drifts with the current. Whether it was Tharpe, or not, Selden’s quote provides some interesting insight.
A different item, but similar, I heard this week where T.J. Moe mentioned that MU’s 2012-13 season collapsed when James Franklin’s girlfriend broke up with him.
And that ties the Rumsfeld discussion and KU hoops together – the “unknown” unknowns.
Teams can be affected by a deterioration of chemistry, by outside events, by things that no one can really anticipate. It can go the other way. Outside or unanticipated events can bond a team.
A lack of chemistry and cohesion might have been part of the struggle last season – a struggle to play to their potential.
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Devonte’s leadership showing is good to hear.
If he could be THE point guard, it would solve a lot of lot of problems early.
But I seem to recall Self praising AWIII about boot camp leadership last season.
Still it’s some good news on DG.
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@HighEliteMajor My 2 cents worth is I would like for Devonte to win the job provided he plays smarter than Frank. Which I think he could do. He’s a natural born point guard, and all this talk about playing two smalls at the same time, imo, is a consolation prize meant for CF and Frank. Graham combines the court smarts of CF, along with the athleticism of Frank. He can’t shoot like CF, but I’d rather my point guard distribute rather than shoot anyway. I think Self is simply using the “small lineup” talk to prevent a CF/Frank transfer, which could be inevitable anyway if Graham is all that and a bag of chips.
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@jaybate-1.0 I agree with you on the number of rotation players. A smaller rotation is what he always does. Really, though, I could see the 4th post guy marginalized much more likely than the 4th perimeter guy. Self has regularly played just three perimeter guys the rotation minutes. He did it literally all of 2011-12 out of necessity (Wesley the 4th guy); Did it in 2012-13 when his #3 and #4 post guys were Ellis/Traylor.
With just three main perimeter guys, that leaves no real big minutes substitute.
A bare minimum 7 man rotation:
Perimeter: Selden, plus two of Mason/CF/Graham, and either Oubre or Greene = 4.
Post: Ellis, Alexander, and Traylor = 3.
Then Mickelson or Lucas get less than 8 minutes and the loser of the Oubre-Greene battle gets the less than 8 minutes collar.
One increasingly lower possibility given Self’s ball handling proclamation, is that the loser of the Greene-Oubre battle displaces one of the ball handling guards for one of the four main perimeter spots.
We play 7 guys rotation minutes. 2 guys get the plug-in, handful of minutes just for breathers, fouls, etc.
That’s my best guess for our rotation we get to Feb. 1.
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@jaybate-1.0 "But I seem to recall Self praising AWIII about boot camp leadership last season.
Still it’s some good news on DG."
He was actually recognized by the marine that ran the program, not Coach Self. So, this was, imo, a pretty substantial feat for a wet behind the ears freshman.
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Thx 4 the memory augmentation.
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I tend to agree with you on the idea of a “small lineup” or a “stretch 4” or whatever. But, the only consistent talk from HCBS since the end of last season has been about playing two ball handlers at the same time. And that talk started before we even signed Graham. So…will 2 of the 3 start? Probably not, but maybe. Will 2 of the 3 play significantly? I think so.
Defensively, they are all short, and they are all an improvement over Naa last year. And you got to believe that both Frank and CF had to get better over the off season. If one of them didn’t work on that to be a little better, then they deserve to sit.
Offensively, like JB said, whoever can make the easy play and the wing entry pass to the post will probably be the most important. Secondly, whoever can shoot the 3 >40%, Third, whoever can develop team chemistry. Think about the lineup last year with Naa and Frank on the floor at the same time. Naa moved over and played the “2 guard spot”. He could still run the offense and handle the ball, but also shoot and pass to the post. That is the spot and duties that are getting replaced. Those are the skills that will be needed to win that spot. So we’ll see.
This is also the time of year that HCBS talks great about everyone. Some reasons for that include, pushing buttons of some players, confusing early season opponents, and creating a positive locker room. Honestly, I doubt HCBS even knows for sure who is going to step up and win minutes, until real practices start. Think about this, imagine you haven’t even started practice with a ball and running plays with a team, and your head coach leaves you out of a conversation for playing time. Deflating!
So…a lot of coach speak, and probably button pushing.
I personally hope that out of our three short guards and three big wings, that we get a five man monster of interchangeable parts that can destroy anything an opponent throws at us. Also I want change of pace and different skills when the subs come in, to keep the opponents off balance, and to keep opposing coaches from using just one game plan against us. (“press their guards”)
I can’t wait for season to start!!! RCJH
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@jayhawkbychoice jmo, I thought CF was as poor of defender as Tharpe!
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@Crimsonorblue22 I thought he showed better instincts than Tharpe. And that’s a freshman compared to a junior. But like I said, both of them had better have gotten at least a little better over the off season or ride the pine.
Something else, we have not even seen Graham yet or even Frank and CF after the off season. So it’s really hard to predict what skills someone has and how they translate in game situations and when the play gets more organized as a team. I think back to the “Landen is a load” comment last year and how that translated to minutes on the floor. Ha, maybe if HCBS doesn’t mention you it’s a good thing!
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It would appear Self shared some of your concerns about Conner, or he might have waited to bring in a higher ranked point guard on scholie than Devonte.
It will be very interesting to see any of the three can defend at a high level on a team lacking a rim protector and so absolutely in need of a point guard that can really guard hard and effectively.
This entire KU team has never had to play without a rim protector at the D1 level. It is going to be a scary new experience for them. No more over guarding tendencies and relying on the rim protector to cover the blow byes.
This season, it is going to take old fashioned Self Defense–the man-up and guard and help kind–to survive the campaign as either one of Self’s conference title winners, or as a team with single digit losses, or both.
The objectives are clear for the group as usual: title and single digit losses.
The goal is a special season.
Rediscovering the verities of Self Defense, even if it costs us some FTAs for the other team, seems crucial.
I can hear the sliding sneakers right now!!!
Rock Chalk to you!!!
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@jaybate-1.0 I hope you are right!
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@jayhawkbychoice Good post. I think you are pretty accurate in your summary. Coach Self always talks about theoretic stuff. He’s not starting two of the small guards. No way. But playing them significantly? For sure. Really, most all of our rotation projections included two of those three anyway, based on ball handling. We knew Self had to have two ball handlers as part of the perimeter rotation, and we knew Selden ain’t an option.
The news, though, is really Self suggesting that we’ve always been better like that.
Maybe we were. In 2008, and 2012 – both Final Four seasons we started two off guards that could handle like point guards, didn’t we?
@crimsonorblue22 - Here’s what separated CF and Tharpe: Effort - did you ever feel that CF wasn’t busting his a**? With Tharpe, effort on defense was his enemy. Now, will CF be a competent defender? I don’t know. He did seem to front his offensive player better than Tharpe, but it’s hard to tell really. The defensive end could decide the PG battle.
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@HighEliteMajor Thanks!
Here are my defensive evaluations, just MHO:
As far as length, there isn’t a dimes worth of difference between the 3.
Frank I assume is a good defender. The times where he appeared out of position last year, I’m going to assume that he was asked to help out others.
Conner seemed to be good at keeping up with his man on the move through screens, and not get lost. I also think he picked up some dumb fouls while helping, because he was protecting bigs.
Graham, well we just don’t know. So I’ll assume that he is a good defender. What the heck!
You also have to think about team defense which may hinder Graham a little.
One thing that I’m going to keep an eye on, is that I think that CF is a late bloomer. Frank is more than a full year older than him and Graham is a few months older than him, having spent a year in prep school. I saw a video clip from a month or two ago, in which CF was goofing around with his brother. His brother threw the ball off the back board and CF went up behind him and dunked it without much effort in getting up. I’ve seen video of him dunking last year and he had a head of steam and really had to get into his jump to dunk in traffic. Now I know that will never be a part of his game, but I think it suggest that he has increase his athleticism a little bit. I don’t know, maybe it’s something, maybe nothing. It will be interesting to see if his overall explosiveness increases over the next couple years.
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Starting at point guard in D1 takes a pair, not just talent and skill.
Last season the pressure of starting at PG for Bill Self finally cracked Naadir Tharpe wide open.
Frank Mason was given some early starts and folded under the pressure.
Conner was injured during an early season period where he might have gotten a start or two to see what he could do. When his knee came around, KU was busily looking unbeatable and headed for a ring run. Folks forget how great KU looked for awhile last season with Naa and before Embiid got a spinal adjust meant from the thuggers. Conner didn’t really get another serious look until Naa cracked. Conner showed okay. Nothing fancy, just got it done for a short stint.
But starting at PG for a season takes an XTReme Pair.
It is brutal out there. Everyone is trying to wreck you everywhere you go. All the coaches are studying video of your every flipping week. Every little flaw you have is identified and schemed against. The wear and tear is XTReme. The psychological stress is XTReme. The starting point guard requires the resilience of some kind of super alloy.
When we point out guys that start as freshman and perform the duty adequately, we are talking about rare birds. Aaron Miles did it. But really, who else? Even Sherron did not start as a freshman and he was the toughest nut outside of Miles I ever saw as a young PG. The more time that goes by the more amazing what Aaron Miles did as a freshman becomes. Miles was freak IMHO. A man body with a man mind’s toughness in a teenager. It was like Miles came out of the womb as hard as titanium. Mario Chalmers actually took years of toughening by Self to get him to be as hard as Miles started out. I don’t even recall Self having to put Miles in the toughening box Self’s first season. Miles by then would have kicked the walls out of Self’s toughening box, taken the ball, and told the first year coach to stuff a sock in it and let us play, Coach. Miles lacking certain skills like shooting, so he could not go onto as great of a career as his toughness warranted. But Miles was a rock.
It is unfair to expect Devonte to have that much toughness in my opinion. But if he has it, well, then KU is lucky as hell.
What is more important is that we really can’t infer much about the toughness of either Frank, or Conner, based on what each did last season, at PG. We only can say they weren’t up to the challenge last season. We know both probably have enough of the basics to be given a look at the job this season. We can suspect that the odds are that one of them can grow into the job this season, but perhaps not both. But there is no way but trial by fire to see if either has the right stuff.
There is a reason Self looks after players and holds them out of deep water so much longer than a lot of fans wish he would.
Tharpe to me was an example of what happens to a player that gets in over his head for too long. Tharpe desperately needed another year of seasoning. He just wasn’t ready mentally for the challenge. But no one else stepped up and so into the chamber he went and the bolt was thrown closed and the pressure of explosive competition proved too intense for him.
Young men can break if put under too much pressure. And there is no greater pressure than point guard for a 35 ti 40 game season at a program where expectations run high as Mt. Everest.
We as fans need to be viewing these three young men as possibilities. Maybe as a committee that might cope with a season and develop to a point of competence by the end of the season. We need to remember that none of the three is really going to be ready to go until the following season; that the biggest thing will be trying to keep all of them from cracking under the pressure.
We don’t want another Tharpe. We don’t want young men cracking. We want young men growing and getting better and better over time.
Rock Chalk!
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I think its encouraging that Graham has shown leadership in the pre-practice festivities to toughen this team up. Will that translate to the court though is another question. You’d have to think that some of that would translate but we just don’t know. Self expects so much out of his point guard that what has been mentioned “cracking under pressure” can happen. Can he lead from the start when we have others who have been through the freshman jitters/demands from Self already?
The other factor that I have realized is that the Big 12 this year has great SG. Buddy Hield, Bryce Jones, Marcus Foster all good sized guard, all good offensive players I can’t see our 3 small ball guards defensively doing a good job against these guys. If you put Selden on him, who in a traditional lineup would be our SG, then you have nobody to guard SF’s on these teams with. You see what I’m saying, we would be at a big defensive disadvantage by playing this 2 small guard lineup on match-up’s alone. That’s not against every team but some of the pre-season big 12 teams it doesn’t seem on paper this can work in KU’s favor. Certainly doesn’t seem like we gain any advantage other than ball handling from going small ball. We seem to lose more than we gain, and then left asking players to over compensate.
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@HighEliteMajor based on last year, CF was not capable of playing KU defense! Improved? I hope. I certainly could see why coach didn’t play him as much as fans wanted. I will be happy to be wrong!
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@Crimsonorblue22 I could certainly see why Self didn’t play him, either. But I hesitate to indict any freshman in Self’s system. Learning curve (usually) moves vastly upward after the initiation to Self-ball.
My concern with CF as a point guard is the other side of the sword – he did have low turnovers, but he also had nearly no assists. Further, the eye test (I’ve been mocked on that before), but he doesn’t look the part. He moves methodically. He protects the ball. Tail dribbles. Is very careful.
For my money, I don’t mind a few wisely aggressive turnovers. Truth be told, turnover aren’t all bad as part of a certain offensive approach. But in Self’s system, which seems conservative, CF was even more so.
I fall in the category of one who thinks that CF has the lowest chance of the three of being our starting PG on Feb. 1. I still like the guy. And think he could be the #2 point guard. But not the #1.
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@HighEliteMajor exactly how I feel. He is “safe”! The tyshawn factor!
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I agree with your assessment of Frankamp based on what we have seen so far. I also agree that the more likely position for him is SG rather than PG. His fundamental are solid and he knows how to play defense, unfortunately against top opposition, the physical is not at the same level as the mental component. Perhaps we can extend the definition of “the spirit is willing but the flesh is weak” to indicate that up to now, his athleticism has not matched his game IQ, although I have read bits and pieces that over the summer he has made huge improvements athleticism-wise and he might be a big surprise. Let’s also remember that when he had to step up, he did it very well when playing for the Under 17 USA team which he led in scoring and shot .452 from 3 (.557 overall) and was a perfect 1.000 from the free throw line.
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@jaybate-1.0 Thanks, I had forgotten about CF knee injury early in the season last year. And what the situation was when he was ready to come back (if he ever was 100%) and didn’t get much of a chance. Interesting. Maybe that could have added to some of the chip building that I believe (IMHO) led to the confidence boost and cold shoulder routine at the end of the Stanford game.
Anyway, good post! You have a great way of pointing out what is going on in front of my face, when I can’t see the forest for the trees. The similarities and differences between Miles, Mario, Sherron, and RussRob are very interesting. You are right about Miles, and Mario developed that same attitude/swagger here and it has served him well in the pros too. That was the “it” factor that made him the perfect pg to be able to play with Lebron and Co…
Your post got me to thinking (after the second read), and if I may, I would like to expand on that thought. Miles was in a league of his own in regards to mental toughness. The rest of the guys you mentioned seemed to respond and excel when there was another pg in the toughing box at the same time. Look at Tyshawn and EJ for example. Tyshawn by himself was different than when paired with EJ. And EJ was different by himself after Tyshawn had left. Then the other example of RussRob’s play before and after Mario, and then Russ/Mario/Sherron playing together. Sherron’s toughing box was having to play behind those guys for 2 years. It’s like they all knew what the others had been through individually, and once they started playing together they joined forces to keep from cracking and to muster up enough “stuff” to stand up to the pressure of HCBS.
More interestingly, that group of Russ/Mario/Sherron were 3 small guards with no super “2 guard” on the team. Now we have a “super 2” on this team, but I wonder what the dynamic would be like next year or the year after if Self whiffs on a OAD/TAD “2 guard”. Also makes me wonder just how close these 3 small guards are and if they will come together to help each other endure the dreaded “box”.
It could be that the best way one can excel out of the toughing box, is to have a “buddy system” in place with others inside that box. And maybe, this is Self’s way of getting them to play together as a unit because each has skills that the other needs. Tharpe didn’t have a buddy and cracked. This will be interesting to see going forward.
Personally, I’m comfortable with all of them and however Self puts the pieces together this year and next. But the dynamic between these three will be intriguing over the next couple of seasons.
Please expand on this or tell me I’m way off. And thank you, it was a rough day today this made me think and took my mind off everything else!
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Hey JFBC.
If you’ve had a tough day I have a nice distraction I go to some times.
You Tube-Late Nite at the PHOG. Dream on Video. Nine minutes of sweet KU memories-some predating my KU days which are really cool.
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@JayhawkRock78 Yeah, it’s pretty cool. I’ve seen it a couple times. There was also a video on You Tube that was counting down KU’s top 10 PGs that was pretty interesting. It’s worth a look anyway.
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Thanks-I will be sure to look at it tomorrow.
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Your take on Conner’s ages explains a lot about last year and signals promise for this one!
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Hard days sometimes make our writing sloppy, but a modest amount of struggle often deepens one’s insight if only to escape it.
Your argument seems reasonable.
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What I always try to remember is that a really hard day is not enough to eat, or a loitering drone targeting you!
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@jaybate-1.0 Thanks for the inspiration! Definitely food for thought!
Man, I love this site!!!
