KU-Dook Pre Game Notes and Questions
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Let’s get this out of the way first: will KU keep shooting 40% from trey?
Will Duke shoot 40% from trey?
Who will shoot better from trey?
Its mostly about the trey now. If KU is shooting 40%, or more, KU wins. If KU is shooting less, then it defaults to how the other team is shooting. If the other team shoots better, KU loses. If the other team shoots the same, or less, the “find a way” boys in crimson and blue can be counted on to hang a W.
KU is now 30-7 with a winning percentage of 81%. Not bad for a team that lost Preston, and started the season with almost no inside game and no depth at 1 or 5.
Dook plays a lot of zone. Inference: Dook has slow feet and Coach K has decided that zone defense can stretch enough to force opposing trey shooters to 25 feet and that beyond that distance it doesn’t matter how you guard the trey. Its not clear Self shares that POV, but he may be leaning that way. Look for KU to do a lot of driving, whenever Dook shows man, and look for KU to do a lot of squirting off rebounds to try to get zone-free looks in transition. Once in half court, KU will play it the same way they have all season against zones. Everyone stretched and Vick darting in and out of the high post to receive passes to collapse the zone and kick out.
Dook plays a lot of zone (Part II): Look for KU to counter with its morphing 2-1-2 zone, which Self has been holding in reserve now for quite some time. Self will likely start M2M, but will show some Morphing 2-1-2 the first half to see if he can go to it second half.
What will be the second half adjustment? God only knows with these two monster talents of coaching, but short of 3pt percentages, and injuries, it will probably be the most important factor deciding the game.
Will Doke be effective with his tweaked knee injury, or is this going to be about Mitch and Silvio? Judging from Dokes exit from the last game, this looks like a Mitch and Silvio kind of game.
Who is the key to the Duke team? Marvin Bagley. He averages 21ppg. Allen, Trent and Carter are equivalent contributors at between 15.6 and 13.5 ppg. Bagley is the real problem facing KU. He makes 61 FG% and even shoots 38.6% from trey. His only weakness is his 62.7% FT shooting.
Who will guard Bagley and Carter, Duke’s one two punch inside? Really tough call for Self. Both are very active and strong. Mitch and Svi actually seem like they might be the guys mobile enough to guard them, but they will have a tough time against Bagley and Carter in a zone. Doke and Silvio, with their size would fare well offensively, but guarding two such mobile and active bigs could foul them up quick. What is up?
Who will guard Allen and who will Allen guard? Dook is well rounded in scoring, and depends most on Bagley, but Allen is the guy that goes off for big games from time to time. KU has to control Bagley AND Allen, and keep Trent and Carter, Dook’s two 40% plus trey shooters pushed out. But KU can’t let Allen go off. So: who guards Allen matters a lot? Its got to be someone that that can stand tripping and taunting. Coach K has likely adopted zone to protect Allen’s slow feet. The tripping has been calculated to discourage attacking him. Looks like Svi would be best, but looks like Svi has to guard Wendell Carter, or Bagley, and contend with them on the glass. Allen is likely to become Lagerald’s problem. Lagerald has had his own problems for a stretch of the season, but Self has rarely hesitated to stack the load on Lagerald. Lagerald is likely to face his greatest challenge in Allen for psychological reasons. Look for Marcus Garrett to come in and help with Allen.
Tripping and cheap shotting is a foregone conclusion with all Duke players whenever they get out of the lead. Coach K would not have his last two rings without cheap shotting. Its going to happen, whenever we’re in the lead. The question is: what is the best response. Self mostly likes to let the other guy be the initiator and most often likes to let his guys take the punishment and shame the refs into calling the game. But Self also likes to surprise teams and occasionally preemptively cheap shots to surprise the opponents. This KU team has acquired more subtlety in its dishing out of contact, but it has not evidenced any skill or proclivity at cheap shotting yet. It seems a little too late to start now. My guess is KU will play it straight until the cheap shotting starts and then get very physical with Duke, rather than cheap shot. Cheap shotting is not something you can just start doing. It takes practice to do it and get away with it. KU has shown a number of times this season that it CAN dish out “the physical.” “The physical” and “cheap shotting” amount to the same thing–heavy contact. But cheap shotting can have a sharper psychological operation impact, because it risks a lot of injury.
Who is the weak link? Trevon Duval in several, but hardly all ways. 28.7% from trey. 59.6% from FT. 42.1% overall. Why does he play? Defense. Ball handling. Assists. We have a sharp edge there with Devonte, but Duval’s job is to hound opponents. Devonte could get annoyed by Duval’s defense and if Devonte tries driving much, he could get some early charges. If Devonte can stay out of foul trouble, Devonte can take it to him the second half. Also, Duval’s rotten trey shooting means Self can scheme a lot more help on other shooters.
Who do we need to keep off the glass? Bagley at 11 rpg. Carter at 9.
If Doke were not injured, I would say KU in a cake walk.
But Doke’s injury really alters what Self can do and how hard our guys inside can play.
We’ll just have to wait and see what the knee tweak did to him?
If KU shoots it well, even without Doke, I think KU wins by 10.
If KU shoots poorly, its probably a loss, unless Dook blows cold also.
The best case scenario for both teams is for both teams to have a lousy shooting game and win one laboring to find a way; then the winner comes to the FF with two hot hand games and wins a ring.
But that scenario seems less likely than one of the teams turning ice cold and losing.
Head says KU is do for an ice game, heart says KU stays hot.
Screw the head. KU wins it.
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@jaybate-1.0 will the FF be 4 for 4 on Eastern Time Zone teams, or will it not ? That is the question.
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Blown said:
@jaybate-1.0 will the FF be 4 for 4 on Eastern Time Zone teams, or will it not ? That is the question.
Chicago is in CST.
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Good!!
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A Cinderella is good for ratings, too.
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@BShark ps i knew that i forgot about Loyola somehow
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Everybody loves a Cinderella, Sister Jean’s bobble heads already available…hopefully properly licensed.
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@JayHawkFanToo They have done bobbleheads of her twice before over the last 10 to 15 years. These are re-issues.
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Final Four ones?
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@JayHawkFanToo They probably have new ones and maybe some old, too. Their bookstore said they had a shipment of 500 one day last week when I first read about it.
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Apparently they were produced by the school and never licensed. Now, they are finally starting to license the likeness of Sister Jean.
