National Hurricane Center
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@KUSTEVE @mayjay Ya’ll be careful. Not sure where you are Steve but we’re praying for a lot of people. My heart goes out to the poor peoples of the Caribbean that get battered by these things and many hundreds or even thousands of people die but we barely notice that here in the US.
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@wissox 5 a.m. forecast (EDT) from NHC has us out of the “cone” where the center is likely to go. If it holds, we will still get a few inches rain and wind but only 45 mph or so.
The cone now has Irma going up near Atlanta as a TStorm on its way to Nashville. Straight into Fla as a major hurricane, though, and up into Orlando as a Cat 1 or 2. Hope Southern Floridians have hunkered down!
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@wissox I am 3 blocks away from the water, but there is about a 20 foot retention wall, and a incline the water would have to go up in order to be a factor to me. Now, the other sides of the bay are in deep trouble, as there is no wall what so ever. So, it will probably flood the people on the lower end. We’re talking some really high dollar homes probably regretting that beautiful view about now.
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Found batteries last night. Got my water on Wednesday, and found gas really early yesterday morning. I think it is mandatory that all Hurricane nuts must purchase at least 1 6-pack of beer, so the tee totaler is going to break down, and buy some suds.
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I am so glad my dad does not live in Sarasota anymore. We do have lots of friends in that area though and praying for all the people in that area that will be affected.
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It is POURING outside. This storm wasn’t supposed to hit here until very early Monday morning. It is quite a gully washer outside.
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I AM NO EXPERT, and its probably too late, but…
I think most persons hoard the wrong things and try to carry too much.
Get a big back pack (70L and up), or water proof duffel bag with shoulder sling. Olive green or coyote brown. NOT CAMO. Get reversible rain cover for it. Orange one side, camo on the other. Use orange side to signal to search parties with. Use camo side at night to help conceal the bag in shadows. Stow rain cover day time to keep pack inconspicuous. When asleep, use the bungee cord off a boogie board, or surfboard and tie the back pack to your wrist. Fill it with:
-2 water filtration systems (like back packers use, one for back up);
-2 single propane burners and bottles (one burner for back up, and as many bottles as the back pack will hold with the following gear);
-2 STRIKE/SPARK fire starters
-imodium (one bottle for each person);
-antibiotics (however much you can scrounge up);
-power bars (3 bars per day/person x 7 days);
-beef jerky (2 bags per day/person x 7 days)
-fixed blade camping knife;
-4 nested camping cups;
-2 nested pans for boiling water (one a back up);
-1 pair walkie talkies (radio shack sells some super good ones for under a hundred, 2 pair is better. one pair for back up. Both pairs batteried.)
-1 little weather resistant NOAA weather radio in a zip lock bag.
-1 hatchet (preferably single forged piece);
-1 waterproof tactical flash light for you and 1 for each member of your party;
-1 mosquito net for each person;
-1 light cheap back pack for each person other than you;
-1 light sleeping bag with a water proof divvy bag for you and 1 for redundancy if you have more in your group (1 1-person bag for each two persons; sleep in shifts, SOMEONE HAS TO WATCH THE BACKPACK)
-1 life jacket for you,
-1 life jacket for your back pack;
-1 life jacket for each loved one.
-1 BRIGHTLY COLORED HAT FOR EACH PERSON
-batteries (ideally a folding solar battery charger for a place like Florida) all kept 2 batteries taped together per 1 zip lock bag, as many zip locked bags as needed)
-a roll of trash bags;
-poncho, or rain gear, for each person;
-100 feet of 750 paracord (with fishing bubbles clipped to it every 10 feet or so), or else just water ski rope (note: the rope is for staying connected while walking in water, or for lowering persons up or down. hold the rope, don’t tie it to people, except for raising and lowering. note also: the 750 paracord is tough to find, but 550 is not strong enough for raising , or lowering much.).
Keep everything in THE big back pack, or lashed to the big back pack and it stays in your reach all the time. DISTRIBUTE AND USE ITEMS AS NEEDED. The back pack and its contents are Noah’s ark.
If you have to abandon house, divide the propane bottles equally among all members of your group’s back packs. You carry one burner, the next most physically fit and mentally robust carries the other burner. Divide the strike/sparks between you two also. Divide the walkie talkies between you two also.
Assuming you have tons of can goods hoarded already and bottled water hoarded already.
BUT DON’T RELY SOLEY ON THE BOTTLED WATER. IT CAN GET SWEPT AWAY. IT CAN GET BURIED UNDER FALLEN STRUCTURES. IT CAN GET STOLEN. GET A BACK PACKER’S FILTRATION SYSTEM AND A PROPANE BURNER AND KEEP THEM EITHER HIDDEN, OR IN YOUR PACK ON YOUR PERSON. TURN THE FLOOD WATER INTO YOUR LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM. WITH THESE ITEMS, AND WITH THE LIFE JACKETS, AND IMODIUM, YOU CAN SURVIVE ON THE MOVE AGAINST THE MOST DAUNTING ODDS, IF NECESSARY.
BOTTOM LINE: YOU ARE IN A ONE WEEK SURVIVAL GAME. MAYBE TWO. THE GAME IS CALLED “KEEP HYDRATED AND WITH ENOUGH CALORIES TO LAST TILL SERVICES RESUME, OR HELP COMES,” EVEN IF YOUR HOME GETS WASHED AWAY. YOU DO THIS BY FILTERING AND BOILING DRINKING WATER, AND BY FIGHTING OFF DIARRHEA, AND KEEPING YOUR MOUTH ABOVE WATER. ALMOST ANYTHING ELSE YOU CAN SURVIVE, AND CREATE A WORK AROUND FOR.
GOOD LUCK AND ROCK CHALK!
Thoughts and prayers at ya!
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@jaybate-1.0 That was a masterpiece.
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Follow your gut. I’m not a survival expert. But I have been reading some suggestions about bug-out bags, because of all of the natural disasters and nuclear threatening going on, and I thought I at least could share some of the thoughts they have triggered in me, regarding these two hurricane driven flooding crises some of us Americans have been bearing the brunt of. When I was a boy, before the Army Corps of Engineers had built one of its dams in the valley up river from my dad’s home town, I saw impressive flooding in his home town about ever 3rd or 4th year, if memory serves me. And my dad got caught in the west bottoms of Kansas City (the stock yards area) during the 1951 flood. I remember being scared by that high and rising water in that small town, even though we made it away from it. I remember my dad’s photographs of boarding a fishing boat from the second story window of his office building in the West Bottoms and seeing the silted streets when the water receded. I have been caught in two wild fires. The floods were a bit scarier, but its all dicey. I have considerable empathy for your situation, but I have never been caught in a hurricane, especially one of the largest ones on record, ever. My Dad was a Marine that survived three island invasion in WWII. He treated natural disasters like war. He said you’ve got to go in with a plan, be prepared for the plan to be disrupted, and then be ready to improvise with what you brought with you. Keep your head. Define the job and keep trying to do it no matter what. Find a way. Just keep focusing on finding a way. Say your prayers. And keep carrying on no matter what. If you get scared, shake it off and focus on the job. Its gotten me through two wild fires on my own and one flood with him. You get scared sometimes, but you fight through it doing your job. Likely things won’t go worst case, but know you can handle worst case, because you’re going to do your job no matter what. You’ve just got to prepare, and keep adapting to the situation, as it presents itself. Keep finding a way. Can do. If all ever looks lost, say, “Believe” and look for the door you can’t yet see.
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And remember: this is all going to be a memory, when Self rolls the balls out October 15th. We put up with all this other shit, so we can cheer them Jayhawks another season!
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First beer in months. This is hard core tee totaling. I think I have a buzz.
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@KUSTEVE dont jump your wall and go swimming!
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@KUSTEVE and et al
Sending following distilled for redundancy. You probably know it all and more…
IRMA FACTS
REPORT TIME: 11AM EDT; SATURDAY; 9/9/2017; NWS NHC ADVISORY 42
REPORT SOURCE: NWS via Palm Beach Post
LOCATION AS OF 11am EST: IRMA 285 MILES SE OF KEY WEST; WEAKENING ALONG CUBA COAST. Eye tracking Cuba coast east to west. Land exposure sapping IRMA down to low 4, high 3 Category.
LOCATION UPDATE: ( 210 miles from Miami latest Post update around 12:00 NOON Saturday; 9/9/2017; seems like some discrepancy between two reports given reputed 9-15 mph track speed)
STORM TRACK TO FLORIDA: IRMA PREDICTED TO SPIKE BACK UP OVER FLORIDA STRAITS AND HIT KEYS THEN FLORIDA WEST COAST WITH 140MPH WINDS: West edge of Bermuda HIGH will steer it north off Cuba coast shortly into Florida Straits, WHERE IT PICKS UP STEAM.
LAND FALL LOCATION: MOST LIKELY TO HIT AND FOLLOW FLORIDA WEST COAST, BUT EVEN SLIGHT PREDICTION ERROR ON TRACK BRINGS IT THROUGH MIAMI.
LAND FALL TIME FLORIDA KEYS: 8 AM SUNDAY 9/10/2017
LAND FALL TIME FLORIDA: 2PM SUNDAY 9/10/2017
STORM TRACK PREDICTION CONFIDENCE: “HIGH”
STORM RISKS: HIGH WINDS, STORM SURGE, TORNADOES
Palm Beach Post has a decent link for quick digest of Irma info with maps and feeds.
Uncle Sam’s NOAA is solid, too, if PB Post gets disrupted.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone
You may catch a break on the worst winds. But stay focused! Some may let their guards down. But not you.
Rock Chalk!
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I hope that this storm does not cause much devastation, hoping for everyone’s safety.
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@jaybate-1.0 @KUSTEVE better stop drinking or he’ll be swimming w/the
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@Crimsonorblue22 LOL. Now, that was funny…
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Night number 2 … beer number 2. I’ve become a raging lush.
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@KUSTEVE jethro! Aren’t you on the west side?
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@Crimsonorblue22 I’m northwest of Tampa. We are smack dab in the middle of it.
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@KUSTEVE I hope you and all folks in the area remain safe
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They are saying the winds are 130 mph, yet the highest anywhere is 63 mph, with 1 gust that went up to 94 mph in Key West. No WAY does this storm reach even half the numbers they are throwing around. I would be surprised if the winds in Tampa get over 50 mph. Rainy, nasty, lots of damage… but not nearly as bad as they are saying. I’m real glad I stayed put.
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@KUSTEVE nice!
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Ok, we finally got some rain. now they’re saying it’s a tropical storm, so they are walking back the storm of the century talk.
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@KUSTEVE Glad it is not as bad as it would have been had it stayed west, but it has been much worse than you seem to think. Gusts upwards of 135 mph and sustained over 95 mph are pretty serious, and gusts upward of 100 mph on the east coast from the morning on show how big the storm is. Still a Category 2. Orlando already has winds up to 70 mph and the center isn’t close yet. You might be lucky after all in TB, but that was not foreseeable. The effects of going over land, and an influx of dry air, are not predictable parts of a hurricane.
3 to 4 million without power (incl 80% of Miami-Dade!) indicates it was pretty serious. The only reason more residences haven’t been demolished is the strengthening of hurricane-resistant building standards, first 40 years ago, and later after Andrew in the 90s. A huge reason we aren’t seeing more injuries and deaths is the effectiveness of the warnings and evacs.
Hope the power stays on for you. The grid will definitely be a mess for awhile!
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My cousins are likely to lose house in Venice to storm surge. Friends in ft lauderdale are ok but no power since early am. Tree damage. They are just west of town. Haven’t had cell service and water lines have broken.
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@Crimsonorblue22 My sister-in-law and her Dad finally finished their 1422 mile 4-day migration to Chicago this evening.
We are supposed to get winds of 30 to 45 tomorrow, along with “torrential rain.” Irma literally spreads over 1000 miles from DC to Cuba. Jose is going into a 290 degree loop this week and then points west, but I think it is supposed to veer off north after that. Lord knows the Lesser Antilles do not need another hit after going thru Irma and Jose once already.
Good luck to your friends and cousins. We thought about moving to Venice. Now, no dice. I hope they (friends) have a generator.
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Great to hear its just a nice gusty breeze your way!!
I lived on the southwest coast of Oregon a few years and we used to get 50-60mph winds on a clear day!!!
A little gale never hurt anyone.
But 95-135 mph can put a few wrinkles in a forehead.
Hope you keep missing all of it.
Rock Chalk!
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Jethro, Jethro, where art thou, Jethro?
@KUSTEVE Hope the beer didn’t send you out with the water when the reverse surge drained Tampa Bay! Have you power, sir? And your roof?
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@mayjay Power is still out…a few quick moves to the ice chest earned the coveted extension cord from the neighbor’s generator. So, ridiculously uncomfotable just went to slighly uncomfortable.
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@KUSTEVE Excellent redeployment of assets, young man! We were thrilled with an extension cord from our neighbor back when hit by Isabel in Virginia (2003). Rotated it between coffee pot, frig, freezer, TV, and laptop charger that kept us connected to the internet via modem on a phone line!
Hope you get plugged in soon!
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They are saying it will be Sunday night before the power comes on. No ice anywhere…no batteries…my whole neighborhood is like a ghost town. The extension cord from the neighbors is very intermittent, so it is a challenge. No hotel rooms available anywhere.
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One thing I forgot to suggest before the storm hit.
Keep $5000 cash in hand just for boat buying immediately afterwards.
You need to start shopping for a boat immediately.
The insurance totaled boats along the inland waterway are the best deals going.
And if the adjusters can’t get in yet, then all the better.
Offer cash only.
Be picky though.
Insist on a Contender.
Or a nice single-screw diesel trawler for motoring the Caribbean islands, while the clean up is underway.
Aw, just having a little fun.
I’m sure this situation sucks big time.
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@jaybate-1.0 even worse if he was in a nursing home
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I have many friends in the Sarasota area where my dad resided before I moved him to Kansas. They were out of power for 48 hours but they have had the power back for while now and things seem to be pretty normal, at least in the parts of the town that are not next to the coast.
Sound like your area was hit pretty hard. Hopefully power return soon so you can all get back to normal…or something close to it…
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My sister-in-law left Chicago today with her father to take him back to Ft Lauderdale. His condo has all systems running. They are driving via St L and New Orl, for God alone knows what reason. My brother spent the past 3 days with his F-in-L, and has now gone certifiably nuts.
The families of evacuees: hidden victims of Irma.
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good news: they came and picked up the trash. that was fixing to be a BIg issue.
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That is crazy, it adds close top 500 miles to the trip and will take them through areas that were affected by Harvey which might require additional detours.
They must really want to go to New Orleans or maybe it is the great barbecue in Saint Louis that Cuonzo Martin just stated is better than Kansas City barbecue.
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@JayHawkFanToo That would be nice, to think there is a plan.
No, it is just because they are totally, unbelievably, mindeffingly, diagnostically nuts.
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@mayjay my friends are in a hotel.
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As of 11:11 am, the power finally came back on. Oh my gosh…
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Just in time to watch the game…which might not necessarily be a good thing baseon the first few minutes of the game.
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@KUSTEVE I was thinking this morning of posting about how I have always gotten power back before they predicted, and that I hoped you would be lucky, too! But I held back to avoid jinxing you.
Hooray for all those thousands of workers who have been working on restoring power all through Florida! BTW, you have a few thousand South Carolinians down there helping. Meanwhile, the quarter million homes out of power here have been tended to by crews from NY, Md, Penn, and Va.
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Good lord, this could be another one. Here is the projected track of Potential Tropical Cyclone 15, predicted to become a TS soon and a hurricane later this week.
The track takes it directly through the islands just whacked by Irma. Some of these storms that develop quickly can really surprise. Those poor people need many months to recover, not this!
Meanwhile, TS Lee is further east and on a similar, but (as currently oriented) more northernly, track. It is not predicted to be as exciting and may dissipate instead.
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Update: Fifteen is now Tropical Storm Maria. The newest track shows it becoming a hurricane into the Virgin Islands and then a major hurricane when it hits PR on Wednesday. Any hurricane with that trajectory and strength could go on to the Bahamas and Florida or East Coast.
Update: A number of spaghetti models show Maria spinning off into the Atlantic to the East of the Bahamas. They said that about Irma, too, IIRC.
