Nevada is on Fire!
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Interesting! Guessing Bloomberg is wishing his was 0:00
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Bloomberg looks like Trumps twin
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šā ššøš¾ šš®š½š®
Amyās notesā¦
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@approxinfinity said in Nevada is on Fire!:
šā ššøš¾ šš®š½š®
Amyās notesā¦
The contempt is palpable
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I usually donāt watch this stuff in any capacity and didnāt watch a lot but man they all seem insane to me lol.
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@kjayhawks I enjoyed watching Bloomberg get blown out of the water. Thought Warren won the debate, then Bernie. Buttigieg and Klobuchar nullified each other. Felt bad for Amy. Pete was kind of a dā. Maybe Biden did ok in that he didnāt do anything good or bad. The talking heads think he did well. I hardly notice him.
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Predicting the Nevada caucus. As @FarmerJayhawk has said, Culinary has been promoting āanyone but Bernieā because they donāt want to give up their union insurance. Hereās my pros and cons trying to make sense of who will win:
Bernie:
- Double digit lead in polls
- Says he will not give them something worse if he replaces their union insurance
- Has the most traction with latinos (Culinary is 50%+ latino and mostly women)
- Might turn out enough people outside Culinary (but Culinary has 60k members in a state that typically has 80k vote in caucus)
- Oppo is making a smear campaign out of āBernie Brosā tweets, propagating that message among the latino community.
Biden:
- Has traction with minorities as well
- Doesnāt threaten their healthcare
- Presumably not as impressive talking to people
Amy:
- Also a moderate, in some cases Culinary workers being interviewed are barely remembering the names, but voted for Joe and Amy because they are moderates.
- Caucus format allows people to vote for multiple candidates
Warren:
- Warrenās strong performance will be spoiled by Amy. If this splits the educated female vote, it will sink them both. But sheās still being touted as a progressive (that being a bad thing) and I think this will ultimately keep her momentum in check in Nevada.
Buttigieg:
- His campaignās support may be less volatile than the others in Nevada. A stable block in the low 10s.
I believe Bernie, Biden and Pete will be the top 3, with Warren and Amy cutting into each otherās support, and it will be much closer than the double digit Bernie lead the polls are indicating. There are people who love Bernie who will vote with the union against him.
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And Bloombergā¦? Does this mean the debate makes him a non-factor?
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@bskeet bloomberg is a factor in that by bombing heās given Biden more life in Nevada.
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@approxinfinity said in Nevada is on Fire!:
@bskeet bloomberg is a factor in that by bombing heās given Biden more life in Nevada.
And Bloomberg isnāt on the ballot in NV or S.C. If this holds, brutal for Klobuchar and Warren https://twitter.com/danielpmalloy/status/1231314841404661760?s=21
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Bernie is obliterating the field. At this point I canāt see a path to the nomination for anyone else.
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Contact in Iowa tells me Pete might be done after Super Tuesday. They arenāt getting close to their money goals and may not break double digits in most states moving forward.
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At this point Warren needs to drop out as well. She is toast. I guess itās down to Bernie and Biden but not sure itās much of a battle.
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Iām not going to say Bloomberg is dead until we see how he does Super Tuesday, but I think his only real shot is at the convention.
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Feel the Bern.
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At least one young candidate needs to stay in the race in case all the old guys keel over.
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@DanR said in Nevada is on Fire!:
At least one young candidate needs to stay in the race in case all the old guys keel over.
The people cry out for Bill Clinton (whoād be about the median in age among top tier candidates)
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Whatās happens if Medicare for all doesnāt pass in Congress? Any fall back plan?
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@Crimsonorblue22 the thing about all of this is that the proposed plan never goes through. Soo we need to start as close to his plan as possible. The billionaires would never be okay with it. Hell look at Bloomberg literally throwing away money to try and beat Bernie. Rest assured of Bernie gets the nomination (looking more likely) ole Bloomy will spend billions in anti-Bernie ads.
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Nevada is on Fire!:
Whatās happens if Medicare for all doesnāt pass in Congress? Any fall back plan?
Public option. But Republicans likely hold the Senate and probably pick up seats if Bernie is the nominee. He has very short coattails down ballot considering heās never actually done anything for the Democratic Party.
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@BShark said in Nevada is on Fire!:
@Crimsonorblue22 the thing about all of this is that the proposed plan never goes through. Soo we need to start as close to his plan as possible. The billionaires would never be okay with it. Hell look at Bloomberg literally throwing away money to try and beat Bernie. Rest assured of Bernie gets the nomination (looking more likely) ole Bloomy will spend billions in anti-Bernie ads.
He literally just said heād support Bernie over Trump.
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@FarmerJayhawk Look heās going to spend the money, it wonāt be traceable. STAY WOKE.
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@BShark said in Nevada is on Fire!:
@FarmerJayhawk Look heās going to spend the money, it wonāt be traceable. STAY WOKE.
Maybe not to laymen
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As of now only Bernie, Biden, and Pete get delegates from Nevada. Not clear Pete gets any when the dust clears. If Biden wins S.C. by a good margin (Double digits-ish) weāve got 3 left going into Super Tuesday.
