Golden State Trifectates to Three Rings in Four Years, Nova To Two Rings in Three, But KU Needs No Trey Ballers, or Real Hoops Politik
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@BShark yep. Would have loved to have seen Paul play that whole series.
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@drgnslayr 40% from three you can overcome with muscle ball. 50%+ with volume and you have to play perfectly to just stay in the game.
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GS 3-point shooting percentage against Cavaliers.
- Game 1 36.1%
- Game 2 41.7%
- Game 3 34.6%
- Game 4 36.8 just sayin’…
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JayHawkFanToo said:
GS 3-point shooting percentage against Cavaliers.
- Game 1 36.1%
- Game 2 41.7%
- Game 3 34.6%
- Game 4 36.8 just sayin’…
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That translates to 40-42% from D1 range with D1 defense. Just sayin’…
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Never one to let facts get in the way.
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But not if The trey ball team just shoots 10 more 3ptas than the muscle ball team.
Jay worked that math out for everyone.
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@jaybate-1.0 They were red hot to start. That game was over in minutes and an aberration similar to what KU did to Syracuse.
Point plaken: You can’t have that aberration without shooting the threes to begin with.
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Did everyone know that Bill Self said he expects Dedric Lawson to take as many 3 pt attempts as Vick did last season? Perhaps an insight into his newly minted 3 pt mind.
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@HighEliteMajor If he’s shooting that many 3’s, he better be much higher than his career 3FG% of 30%. If he’s launching 150+ 3’s at 30%, he’s going to cost KU games. Vick averaged about 5 3FG attempts per game last year so that would be 1.5/5 on 3’s for Dedric at his current career average. There’s no way Self will allow that to ever happen.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 From the boss man himSelf:
“I think our style will be different, without question,” Self told Tait. “Because I think we’ll play two bigs. But I do think one of the bigs, Dedric (Lawson), is a 3-point shooter. I could see him taking as many 3s as Lagerald (Vick, who made 59 of 158 this season).”
I would also observe that he said “one” of our bigs is a three point shooter. Lightfoot?
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BShark said:
Never one to let facts get in the way.
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Never one to grasp meaning of facts.
Facts without analysis with insight are more misleading than lies!!
Chop chop @BShark!
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As Self’s teams prove often, games are rarely over in the first half. My god! We have come back from worse than that!
Certainly, we would have come back effortlessly had we had six trifectates > 39% including two in the paint!!!
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HighEliteMajor said:
Did everyone know that Bill Self said he expects Dedric Lawson to take as many 3 pt attempts as Vick did last season? Perhaps an insight into his newly minted 3 pt mind.
Great dot.
Here is one possible connect: Dedric is the only guy he trusts to pot the triceratop. Gulp.
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HighEliteMajor said:
@Texas-Hawk-10 From the boss man himSelf:
I would also observe that he said “one” of our bigs is a three point shooter. Lightfoot?
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Mitch seems out of the trey role.
Mitch could be getting a rouge Italian smoking jacket.
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@HighEliteMajor Dedric was 35% as a freshman and 27% as a sophomore. If Dedric is at his freshman level, then I’m okay with him taking 3-4 3’s at the top of the key, but if he’s 30% or lower next year, taking that many 3’s will only be a detriment to KU.
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Tell me something… How big is the difference between 33% and 40% 3 PT shooting if you have a bunch of plus rebounders?
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@approxinfinity chemistry
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@approxinfinity Long shots equal long rebounds and that means you need guards who can rebound better which hopefully KU’s long armed guards could do if teams do try and launch a lot of 3’s against KU.
I think with this group of players KU has next year, KU could hold opponents to 30% or lower from 3 considering KU gave up 33% last season.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I want no part of sub 33% three point shooting. Volume driven or otherwise. Reliance on low percentages of anything increases volatility. I’m guessing Self sees a guy more like that 35% number.
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Having a lot of good rebounders is only a decisive edge, if they kick the ball out to 40% trifectates. If instead the rebound and make 50-55% of 2ptas, then 3 > 2.
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And it really becomes a game of possessions.
What crushed Cleveland was when they weren’t snagging all those offensive rebounds.
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HighEliteMajor said:
Did everyone know that Bill Self said he expects Dedric Lawson to take as many 3 pt attempts as Vick did last season? Perhaps an insight into his newly minted 3 pt mind.
So imagine if Dedric is the second or third big we have in the game simultaneously. Who is going to guard him on the perimeter? No one in the Big 12 has that many quality bigs… and few of any teams in D1!
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@drgnslayr can he guard a nova 3 or 4 man?
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
@drgnslayr can he guard a nova 3 or 4 man?
Crucial question for sure. My guess is that Self thinks Dedric has the kind of athleticism that Brandon Rush had pre knee injury.
But it is still not clear to me that Dedric will be playing 3, though I would love it if Self were to essentially go to a triple post offense (not a triangle offense, but three post options opponents have to guard down low. One post on each block and a high post at the free throw line. Dedric would likely be that high post. Let’ Dedric rotate high low with either of the two low posts. Whenever Dedric winds up on the low block, if the opponent keeps guarding him with their perimeter 3 position player, let Dedric take him tot iron. Whenever they switch a big onto him down low, release him to the corner to take the trey with the ball reversed around the perimeter to him.
This will be VERY tough for teams to guard, even the best teams in the country. But it only works if Dedric can guard athletic 6-3 to 6-6 3 position players.
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@jaybate-1.0 I don’t think he can, but, I’ve never seen the highly touted guy play.
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
@drgnslayr can he guard a nova 3 or 4 man?
KJ and Dedric have the tools to be elite defensively at the college level.
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I’ll go way out on limb here, but I don’t think Dedric is playing the three. Like I’d bet quite a bit of money on that. Sure, he might get two minutes at the three like Ellis did once. But this is simply not a real option for Self in my mind. We discussed this about Ellis and it just never happened.
One important point that Self has mentioned a number of times is his desire for ball handling. He went through the rough patch with Selden, who was atrocious with the ball. He’s now experienced an offense where all four guys we’ve played on the floor … from Mason to Vick to Svi to JJ … were all better ball handlers than our alleged two guard in Selden.
Self simply going back to conventional is the necessary move. But three bigs is pretty unprecedented for Self. Self said, “I think our style will be different, without question, because I think we’ll play two bigs.” – he didn’t say three and has never hinted at it.
Remember, too, Self does value speed, as in getting the ball up and down the court. Playing two bigs, and playing conventional, doesn’t mean you have to play slow and plodding. Athletic bigs like Dedric and DeSousa, permit us to play real fast, and we were able to play pretty fast with Doke on the court, too.
Defensively, I think it could certainly work, though, if we played a conventional 2-3 or 2-1-2 zone (stating the obvious). Three big guys always works with those zones. But we know how Self loves the zone D, so maybe not happening.
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I just finished reading a couple of stories on Dedric that indicated that if he were not listed at 6’9" he might be playing the 3 instead of the 4 and no one would be surprised. I also saw a few draft prediction where he is actually listed at 6’8" with shoes and 230 Lbs. so he is pretty close in size to Lightfoot and many have commented that Mitch could be playing the 3.
If Dedric and/or Ligthfoot can reliably hit the 3 then I could see where either could really play SF and let the really big guys play up front. Coach Self mentioned that he sees Silvio more as PF than a Center so he could play Doke and Big Dave at Center, Silvio at PF and Dedric alternating between PF and SF, same as Lightfoot. A lot of flexibility/overlap and lot of talent at all positions; maybe Coach Self will come with scheme we have not seen before…it should be fun.
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I believe it was posted here before that the knock on Dedric is that he cannot jump very high which would be a big disadvantage against the bigger PFs.
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@HighEliteMajor I don’t think Perry didn’t play 3 because he was a bad fit there. He didn’t play 3 because of our lack of depth in the interior. We needed his high iq and solid positional D at the 4.
Depth is there now.
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I’ll be surprised if ltft and Dedric are playing the 3. To slow
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@JayHawkFanToo Tremendous wingspan helps negate that disadvantage though.
@Crimsonorblue22 It’s nonsense talk, you are right. @HighEliteMajor is right. People love to talk about playing huge but it’s a disadvantage and never happens because Self isn’t crazy. KJ has the ability to play the 3 and is really long. All of the defensive options KU might roll out at the three (KJ, Garrett, Grimes) are capable of playing great defense at the college level.
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@approxinfinity I personally have the same opinion I had back when Perry was here … I thought he was very slow laterally. Did not have quick feet. He was not an explosive athlete – all relatively speaking. You are right, though, we had significant depth issues (related to quality) in the post during his tenure. That said, have you ever seen a “3” in high level college basketball that looked and moved like Perry Ellis? I struggle to find a comp.
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@jaybate-1.0 Dude! I have been MIA on the board lately. Its off season and the travel nurse life is unforgiving at times in terms of my basketball needs. Anyways, Im not sure what to say about your post here sir. Your math and your WWII historical references are over my head.
You make a reference about KU not being able to land trey ballers. Well, at least the high level 5 star kind any ways which is true but, I think its inaccurate. Devonte, Svi and Frank were great trey shooters and not one of them were 5 or even 4 stars coming out of highschool. (yah I know, Svi came from Ukraine) But still, the past two years of trey gunners at KU have been raised to be that way. We just lost all of our trey gunners from last year.
We did lose out on 5 star wings this year, I’ll give you that. But we have guys on the team that can shoot from deep. We will have guys on the team that can shoot from deep. Wings and Bigs.Coach Self has a post heavy rotation this year. We all know that. Its probly the deepest post rotation he has had at KU. That includes the 08 roster and the 11 roster with the twins and Trob.
I firmly believe this season that coach Self has a new tool to add. Bigs who can shoot from deep. And, those guys will be athletic enough to guard out to the trey line and guard ball screens. We dont necessarily need >40% from trey shooters. 36% collectively from our bigs would probly do the trick. Lawson, Mitch,( we know those guys can shoot from deep right now) Silvio and McCormack haven’t proven they can yet but if the need is there, I am betting they will. Hell, Im going to put Doke down here too. Even though I find it unlikely that coach lets him shoot 3’s.
Im just not convinced yet that great shooting wings are being diverted away from KU. If we start seeing a trend happening then yah I’ll buy into it. But, Coach Self has a recruiting advantage right now in the form of U18 USA Bball. Same as Coach K did when he had the helm there.
I also think we have guys on the team right now that can build up their shooting prowess the same way that Frank, Devonte’, Svi all did.
Great post by the way.
Rock Chalk!
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@jaybate-1.0 Exactly. So, Dedric and Mitch can both knock down treys. The jury is out on the other bigs from deep. Your point is that it only works if both Lawsons and Mitch can defend shorter guards. I think they can, but I have no idea.
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Let me distill it this way.
When Self loses all of his trey shooters at the height of the trey ball era, one expects him to sign some more.
But he didn’t. Not one. Not from any rank of player.
One expects him to sign at least one or two, especially after Self and KU had won 30+ two consecutive years shooting the trey ball first. But one also expects him to sign some, because previously Self and KU shot the trey ball second for a lot of years, with considerable success also. They went inside and then kicked the ball out to some great trey ballers in the old paleo-high-low days; guys like: Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Kieff Morris, Marcus Morris, Tyrel Reed (46% his junior season), Sherron Collins, Travis Releford (>40% his last season), and on and on.
You see, it kind of taxes logic to think that a coach like Self does suddenly, willfully decides not to sign any replacement trey ballers. What coach in his right mind does not want to sign some >39% trey ballers for his trey-free roster, when he even has a schollie left to spec on at least with some 75-100 guy like Frank, or Devonte, or like any of the six > 39% trey shooters on Nova last season?
Here is what we know: Jay Wright could sign SIX >39% trey ballers from the 75-100 rank alone. These were guys that were also good enough to shut down all of our guys defensively, and all of the guys they faced in the Finals versus Michigan defensively. These were guys that could and did win a ring walking away and blowing blue blood out like they were the Topeka YMCA.
Further, we know Self likes guys that can drain the trey >39% and we know from experience with Frank and Devonte that Self once was able to sign trey ballers from the 75-100 rank that could guard, too, just like Jay has done. Maybe Self cannot sign as many >39% trey ballers as Jay can (for god only knows what reason), but we know he can sign a few, especially when he is willing to dip down into the 75-100 category of players. Right?
But for some reason, this season, Bill Self didn’t sign any. He didn’t sign any from the 1-75 category, and he didn’t sign any from the 75-100 category.
Reflect on that a moment.
There appears only two likely explanations for NOT signing any >39% 1-75 rank guys, AND not any 75-100 rank guys.
Explanation 1: Self has decided he can’t win with >39% trey ballers, regardless of ranking and so decided not to sign any, or…
Explanation 2: Something prevented him from signing the >39% trey ballers he wanted to sign from both the 1-75 category, and the 75-100 category.
Which do you think is more probable? Reason 1, or Reason 2?
Or do you think Bill Self has fallen victim to a negative anomaly (being unable to sign any >39% trey ballers from both categories, because all the guys just didn’t want to play for a HOF coach, at an elite program, that just went to the Final Four and has played 4-1 for two seasons and won big shooting the trey first) the same way some want to believe that Jay Wright lucked into a positive anomaly yielding him 6 > 39% trey ballers (including two post men)?
I am not sure who constitutes the greater anomaly: Self and KU having none this season, or Jay and Nova having six last season.
Can you think of another Elite D1 program without a single returning >39% trey baller that ALSO did not sign a single > 39% trey baller?
I can’t.
Not one.
Wow!
That too is quite an anomaly.
There’s a whole lotta anomalies going on.
Rock Chalk!
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And don’t forget the tiny hands.
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Ah yes, poor Bill Self couldn’t get the players he wanted.
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@jaybate-1.0 Alright man, point taken very acutely. It does seem odd considering Self’s success with trey ballers over the years. Im still not willing to cry foul though. Not yet. Lets see what happens next season with recruiting and this coming season with all the guys we have right now. Im betting that we will have some guys break out in the post and in the back court that can shoot the 3 ball very well from deep.
Basically, lets just wait and see. Wait and see and gather some more info.
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KU had two of the best 3-point shooters ever in HS in Greene and Frankamp…how did it work out for KU? I will take a top 20 guard over a sub 75-100 3-point shooter. Chances are you have a better chance improving the shooting of an already elite athlete easier than improving the overall game of a sub 75-100 player.
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JayHawkFanToo said:
KU had two of the best 3-point shooters ever in HS in Greene and Frankamp…how did it work out for KU? I will take a top 20 guard over a sub 75-100 3-point shooter. Chances are you have a better chance improving the shooting of an already elite athlete easier than improving the overall game of a sub 75-100 player.
I will take NOVA’s apparently under ranked players last season; i.e., the guys ranked 75-100 that blew 1-75 ranked players out of the gyms all season.
Howling!
Those 75-100 ranked players appeared better than any 1-75 ranked players I have seen the last 5 years at least. I want 75-100 ranked players after last season, because in this ranking system, they appear to be the best players. They can lock down 1-75 ranked players and outshoot them to a ring. Darned impressivo, eh? These 75-100 ranked guys are the absolute best IMHO. I don’t know why ANYONE wastes time recruiting 1-75 guys above 75-100 guys.
Howling!
That Nova team appeared like it could have destroyed ANY of the recent 9-10 stacks of UK and Duke. They appeared able to have handily destroyed UK’s 2012 team that was only six deep in OADs and with nothing else. NOT. EVEN. CLOSE.
75-100 rank players that can blow 1-75 rank players out of the gym are dead nuts on the best players in college basketball judging by appearances.
Howling!
1-75 rank players? We don’t need no stinking 1-75 rank players.
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BShark said:
Ah yes, poor Bill Self couldn’t get the players he wanted.
Now you are starting to get woke!
Howling!
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Not all the nova players were sub 75. Furthermore many were multi-year and redshirt players that Jay developed.
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Lulufulu said:
@jaybate-1.0 Alright man, point taken very acutely. It does seem odd considering Self’s success with trey ballers over the years. Im still not willing to cry foul though. Not yet. Lets see what happens next season with recruiting and this coming season with all the guys we have right now. Im betting that we will have some guys break out in the post and in the back court that can shoot the 3 ball very well from deep.
Basically, lets just wait and see. Wait and see and gather some more info.
It seems maybe a little more than odd.
It maybe appears somewhat absurd.
I mean the guy is in the HOF and KU is one of the legendary basketball programs and Self has been playing 4-1 and hoisting a lot of treys for a couple years now, right? Common sense suggests he ought at least to be able to sign some 75-100 rank trey ballers like those guys on Nova last season, right?
But I am for sure NOT crying foul.
And I reject claims of conspiracy in D1 out of hand.
When I go to a carnival booth, I don’t cry foul, or claim conspiracy, or try to mischaracterize others by saying they are asserting conspiracy in operation of the carnival booth, or the carnival.
Conspiracy and crying foul appears to be for suckers in D1, unless the authorities say its so.
When I go to a 1-arm bandit, or a roulette table, where odds are apparently asymmetrically in the house’s favor, I do not cry foul, or allege conspiracy. It would be goofy.
Why would anyone cry foul, or conspiracy, about D1, or Self’s recruiting?
There appears to be some asymmetry of some kind, that’s all I can anecdotally observe. Its hardly proof of anything. Its an appearance; that’s all.
Who knows?
Maybe the appearance of asymmetry is somehow crucial to the entertainment aspects of the college basketball industry?
I don’t know. I am just a layman fan.
I just love the greatest game ever invented.
I have no idea if someone like you should, or shouldn’t, cry foul. I just don’t know. I believe aliases should not mischaracterize other aliases as believing in conspiracies, especially when an alias asserts repeatedly that conspiracy in college basketball appears to be for suckers.
I just know I am not crying foul, nor intending to suggest any conspiracy in this instance.
I am leaving identification of fouls and conspiracies to the authorities and except for the reputed investigation of college basketball by FBI/DOJ, I have NO reason to suspect any fouls or conspiracies, or anything thing else improper to be going on beyond what the authorities and/or experts find and have found in in the past.
It just appears to me like KU and Self are not able to sign certain kinds of players that my horse sense suggests they should be able to sign.
But, hey, I’m a layman and a fan, so what appears feasible to my horse sense, may not in fact be so.
Rock Chalk!
