Will any PERIMETER STARTER in D1 average 60% from Trey for a season?

  • It seems like averaging making 60% of treys in D1 (or the NBA) is the equivalent of hitting .400 for a season in MLB. Can it be done on > 125 3ptas for a season? Has it ever been done?

  • I’d imagine it would have to be a specialist type player at a high mid major. I doubt a player at a power 5 school would get enough really good looks to shoot that well.

    Last year Markus Howard of Marquette shot nearly 55% as a 5-11 freshman on 150 attempts (82-150). Let’s drop his attempts from 150 to 140, then he only has to make 84. Yes, that’s two more than he made last year in 10 less attempts, but it’s doable in theory.

    Still, someone as small as he is probably isn’t a good candidate because he’s going to have to shoot over bigger guys.

    Nick Masterson of Kennesaw St. is 6-6. He shot a shade over 54% last year (86-159). Take away his 20 most challenged shots and he only needs to make 84 to hit the magic 60%.

    A guy that might be able to do it is actually someone that some on this board are familiar with - Mitchell Ballock, now at Creighton, but originally from Eudora, Ks. He’s 6-4, which is decent size for a college wing, and is likely a four year player at Creighton. The offense at Creighton creates good space for shooters, so he’s in the right type of system. He’s a very good shooter, and, if he’s selective, could probably get into that level.

    It would be incredibly difficult because a player would have to go basically the entire season without a real shooting slump. A 2-7 from three evening would be backbreaking for that sort of attempt. It would take almost everything going right, but at the same time not shooting too much. The sweet spot is probably 135 - 155 total attempts. Many more and the percentages will drag you back to the low to mid 50s. Basically this would be a season long aberration of a hot streak - the only two players to shoot over 50% from three last year were also two of only three players in the top 50 to shoot fewer than 160 threes total on the season.

    Can it be done - yes. But you need a team with two great shooters, one of which shoots for volume while the other racks up the higher percentages. Will it be done - doubtful. A shooter that hot is going to be tempted to increase their volume, which will erode the percentage (regression to the mean).

  • @jaybate-1.0 It’s coming at some point. There will be a guy come through in some generation who looks like LeBron but plays like Steph. Imagine a guy that could move/shoot like Steph but was 6’9 so you couldn’t even get a hand in his face if you tried.

    It’s coming.

  • @justanotherfan

    Superb analysis.

    We are looking for a 6-4 maniacally driven perfection that approaches Trey balling the way Ted Williams approached hitting–scientifically, systematically–and with rigid rules about where and when to take the shot. And he will need that volume shooter on the opposite wing. And lastly he will need a coach that schemes the offense to win with peak 3pt %.

    I reckon last year’s KU team was a near prototype with 4 out so you have a volume shooter and a volume driver to keep the D honest inside and out for the pass or kick to the 60% gun. But it would have been better to have your volume shooter --Devonte–at point and your 60 percenter on a wing.

  • Unlikely to happen. The highest season % in colleges is 56% and that happened only once, the second highest is just over 53% which is also the highest season % ever in the NBA. Statistically speaking, each additional % point is considerably more difficult and getting to 60% is highly unlikely. Is it possible? Of course, any thing is possible. Is it probable? No.

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