Does KU win the Big 12
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Do they?
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Right now they have as good a chance to win it in football as they do basketball.
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@nuleafjhawk football just got tougher w/Mangino joining the league!
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@Crimsonorblue22 - I had no idea! I’m glad he’s back in the area and hope his wife is better.
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@TheDrunkenJhawk , Yes. OSU lost Cobbins. Baylor will be tough, but Self is the edge over a long round robin.
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I see no reason why we can’t win the Big 12. Now…I think the chances that we do…whatever they were…in my mind greater than 50/50 vs. the field before the season started… are now less than that. Not only based on last night’s game, but the fact that we are not where anyone (especially Self) thought we would be at this point. It does help that OSU lost Cobbins and lost to KSU. Baylor could, but they have Drew. ISU…maybe the favorite as we sit here now. I see a greater chance that we lose a game at home than they do. I would like our chances better if our schedule was more favorable. In the first half of the season, we play the other 3 contenders at home and 2 of them on the road. Arguably our 3 toughest home games and 2 of the toughest road games in the first 9 games. In theory, this would be the year that we show the most improvement in the latter part of the season, so I would rather have a more “balanced” schedule in that regard. Is KSU now a credible threat? Based on recent (and last year’s) performance?
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As long as we stay healthy and can steal an away game or two and hold home court. Tall order for sure. TX lost to OK. WVa beat Tech barely in OT tonight. Iowa St has Baylor tomorrow. Everyone will be gunning for us.
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We’ve lost three winnable games.
We’ve lost one where it felt like we never had a chance.
We’ve lost to four teams all ranked higher than us.
We’re going to lose several more winnable games the way this season is shaping up.
We’re also going to win some ‘loseable’ games as the team improves.
So I predict we’ll learn from our experiences and win more loseable games than lose winnable games.
We’ll tie for the league title is how it will shake down. We’ll get the tie with about 4 losses.
We’ll enter the dance with a tough draw as the four seed, with 8 losses. Lose in the Big XII tourney and we’ll have 9 losses, dropping us to a 6 seed. Magic happens when we’re a six seed and we win it all on the back of Joel and the Miracles.
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Oklahoma State is the best non-KU team in the conference, and they lost their best interior player for the season. I could see that costing them 3 conference games (likely cost them the K-State game already).
Baylor is a notch below Oklahoma State. Or they were, prior to the Cobbins injury. Now they are probably even with OSU. But Baylor is traditionally inconsistent, particularly on the road.
K-State has a nice win, but I doubt their ability to go into hostile environments and get wins in conference. Check back in a couple weeks when they have had to go on the road.
Texas Tech and TCU are just plain not good enough to win the conference.
Texas is up and down, sometimes in the same game. I don’t think they can put together enough 40 minute games to finish higher than about 4th at best. I have them finishing sixth right now. Oklahoma is similar, except with less talent, but more discipline and experience.
West Virginia isn’t very strong. They are probably two players away from being a contender.
That leaves Iowa State. Really, the Oklahoma State situation has helped them more than anybody else. ISU will be a nightmare at Hilton for everybody. Because of the way their team is built, I think they will steal a couple of road games they probably shouldn’t. If we don’t sweep them, there’s a chance they win the conference over us simply because they may steal a game somewhere (@Baylor, @OSU, @KSU) when they shouldn’t, and I could see them legitimately going undefeated in conference at home, especially given our current lack of toughness.
Right now, I’d say the Big 12 will shake out something like this.
1t KU 14-4 1t ISU 14-4 3 OSU 12-6 4 KSU 11-7 5 Baylor 10-8 6t OU 8-10 6t Texas 8-10 8 WVU 6-12 9 Tech 4-14 10 TCU 3-15
Yes, that puts KU at 8 losses. I don’t see them 1) going undefeated at home in the Big 12 and 2) winning at Gallagher Iba, Hilton, and Baylor, and also avoiding dropping a dumb game at Texas, OU, KSU or WVU (remember how bad KU looked there last year?). They find 4 losses somewhere. Let’s just hope ISU also trips up 4 times.
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This is an especially great question at exactly this point in the season? I’m going to say anything is possible. BTW- I’d like to say yes, without a doubt. But, these boards have made me pause in so many ways. The guys will get determine and Self will come through with coaching. The team will respond to conference. We now have the conference title streak on the line.
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I think we win the Big 12 again. It’s not going to be a cakewalk, but I think we’ll edge Iowa St and the Cow Pokes for our 10th straight title. These lumps we’re taking will help us grow as a team. By March, we will be very, very tough. This team has a nearly unlimited ceiling, and it will be fun to watch them grow.
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I think we have more than 4 conference losses. Although I am one of those who has confidence that Self will have this team where we all expect later in the year (not sure when that will be) I don’t see us winning in Ames next Monday. I think the front loaded schedule may give us more losses than we would like. I’m thinking 5 losses. Six maybe, which would be a small disappointment. Both of those, I think, are possibilities. More than 6 starts to become a big disappointment. 5 losses, I think, gives us a decent shot at winning the Big 12…possibly another shared title.
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@Hawk8086 I picked four losses for one reason and one reason only.
Bill Self has never lost more than 4 conference games while at KU. He went 12-4 his first two years, then 14-4 last year. Every other season he has been at three or fewer losses. That’s one of the reasons the streak exists. It’s awfully hard to finish ahead of a team that only loses a couple of conference games every year.
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@justanotherfan Your logic is sound…and I hope you are right. I am worried about the front loaded schedule getting to us.
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Originally I thought Oklahoma St would be the biggest threat to end KU’s title streak. I don’t anymore. Michael Cobbins is a big loss and they don’t match up that well with the other top teams in the Big 12. Le’Bryan Nash is a good player, but he can be inconsistent at times. If he has an off game, Oklahoma St isn’t going to get much production from their bigs. And looking at the frontcourt players on KU, ISU, and Baylor, Oklahoma St really doesn’t have an answer for Embiid, Niang, or Austin.
I think Iowa State is the biggest threat to end KU’s title streak for a number of reasons. First, look at their roster. They match up well with any team in the Big12. Ejim and Niang are good enough to play with Embiid/Ellis or Austin/Jefferson. Ejim and Niang can also stretch the floor with their shooting, and you can keep both on the court at the end of games because they are good free throw shooters. Their point guard, De’Andre Kane, is averaging 15 points, 7 boards, and 6 assists per game. He’s 6’4 and can match up well with any point guard in the Big12. Between Fred Hoiberg, Scott Drew, and Travis Ford, I think Hoiberg is the best coach. And Hilton Coliseum is one of the toughest places to play in the country, ISU won’t drop many games there. Iowa State scares me the most right now.
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In my opinion beating Oklahoma is going to be very important if we want a chance to win the conference because:
-Norman is a game that any team in the Big 12 could lose, getting a win their would give us a slight edge for now against ISU, OSU, UT, and Baylor.
-It would help our confidence. after OU we have to play KSU(#25 in the AP poll), @Iowa St (#9), Oklahoma St (#11), and then Baylor (#7). I would like to come out of that 4 game stretch with one loss and I would love to come out undefeated. But to get momentum going we gave to defeat Oklahoma.
How good is Oklahoma? I do not know. They did beat Texas and hung around with Michigan State, but they lost to Louisiana Tech and let teams like TexasA&M play close with them. I do know that they are good enough to give any team a run for their money in Norman.
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@TheDrunkenJhawk I think your post is perfect right now. KU needs to focus one game at a time to the conference title. OU is playing well and with confidence. We play them in Norman. So today, a better question might be, do we beat OU in Norman? Should. Buddy is playing really well and hopefully there will be a defensive answer. Wiggins likes to test his defensive skills and Hield may be their biggest threat. I don’t think OU has an inside presence to match KU. I might add that Lon Krueger is doing a great job at OU too. He’s an overlooked coaching talent that gets little props for his coaching ability.
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@truehawk93 I think tonight’s game is huge! We need to see a confident team playing great defense and having fun. I think tonight’s game dictates where we go in league, hopefully on top!
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two things:
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yes
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I have a crush on KUSTEVE
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Right now I vote NO.
We peaked with the Duke game and nosedived quickly after. We’ve made tiny, almost indiscernible improvements in the past few games. Or have we? Normally, 13 games into the season we have a pretty good feel for who we are. I don’t think Coach Self even knows who we are yet. I hope we see some gigantic strides tonight.
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I just don’t see anyone who can BEAT us. I would say OSU had a shot but that loss to KSU really hurts. We can’t forget that Baylor has Scott Drew as their coach so sustained winning will simply never happen. ISU looks good at home but, then again, when haven’t they? They’ve had a few nice wins against Iowa, Michigan, and Baylor but Michigan was supremely overrated this year and Baylor on the road pulled a classic Baylor on the road so really, the only hard fought game is Iowa. I’d say ISU and OSU have the best shot but ISU’s guys are playing over their talent level and have shown throughout the years an incredible inability to handle success. The fact it is a team of thugs, transfers, and guys kicked off previous teams will come back to haunt them no matter how good the coach is. If Smart is the player of the year then OSU has a chance - if not, we’re a lock for a 10th strait.
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As I mentioned before, I believe that a 14-4 record will win the conference. To do this, KU must hold serve at home and win 5 out 9 games on the road.
Assuming KU wins out at home, the chances on the road are as follows:
Likely wins: TCU, TTU,WVU.
Can go either way: KSU, UT, OU
Likely loses: OSU, ISU, Baylor (if Drew gets suspended and an assistant coaches)
This is based on what I have seen the different teams do so far. Every game KU loses at home makes it that much more difficult. A win against OU would go a long ways towards improving the team’s confidence.
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@JayHawkFanToo I agree with you analysis of which games we win for the most part, however, I am concerned about some of the early home games given that this team may need some more time (we’ll see) to “gel”. Tonight’s game is extremely important as I see it as a swing game for us, and potentially our challengers. I do think, though, that 5 losses might win the conference. Outside chance that 6 losses might do it.
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We own the B12 and have to hold it not win it. Until someone takes it away. The good news is we don’t have to play ourselves and all the others will beat each other up. KSU beat Cowboys, Cyclones will take down several hot shots. Who are we worried about - Longhorns, Baylor, please. Relax we got this.
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Who are we worried about - Longhorns, Baylor, please.
As of right now, ISU is number one contender to unseat us. Hoiberg can flat out coach and they’re playing some of the best ball in the country. And don’t count out OSU just yet. If we don’t win our next three home games (including OSU) we will spend the rest of the conference season playing from behind and hoping for someone else to lose.
